Given the holiday-shortened week, cattle buyers are not expected to waste much time in completing the necessary procurement chores, needing to collect slaughter needs pretty much for that balance of November between Monday and late Wednesday. Having said that, activity Monday should still be on the slow side as packers primarily focus on the collection of new showlists. Look for ready numbers to be somewhat larger than last week. Early asking prices are likely to be around $116 in the South and $178 to $180 in the North. Cattle futures should open on a mixed basis as players assess cash needs and potential.
The cash hog trade should open Monday with bids steady to $1 higher. Official slaughter chain speed set a new record last week at 2.6 million market hogs. Such aggressiveness obviously pulled some holiday inventory forward, but this week's offering will be naturally smaller and packers may have to dig harder in the days ahead in order to take full advantage of the smaller offering. Lean futures are geared to open solidly higher, supported by the late-week price surge and ideas that seasonal cash will bottom out.
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Cattle buyers should enter the short holiday week with a bigger appetite for ready and heifers, needing to supply the last full slaughter week for the month of November.
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Although the Nov. 1 Cattle on Feed report due out this Wednesday could confirm a slight decrease in October placement activity, most assume that the total bunk line will remain historically large, probably 4% to 5% larger than 2017.
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Although fed steer (up 4 pounds) and heifer (up 7 lbs) carcass weights increased in the week end Nov. 3, feedlot scale tickets tend to peak in late November or early December. ???
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For the week ending Nov. 16, noncommercials accelerated liquidation of their net-long position in live cattle futures, with a decline of 8,000 to a total of 67,600. This is the smallest position in nine weeks.
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China's efforts to stem the spread of African swine fever were dealt a fresh blow on Friday when the agricultural ministry confirmed it had found the first case in a wild boar, deepening a three-month-old crisis for the world's top pork producer. The country also confirmed the first outbreak in the southwest province of Sichuan, the country's leading pig-herding region, raising the likelihood of a major impact to pork supplies in coming months.
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For the reporting week ended Nov, 13, noncommercial traders reduced their long position in lean hog futures by 1,400 contracts, resulting in a net long of 7,700.
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The lean hog futures rallied nicely last week (e.g., Friday to Friday, e.g., December LH up 427 points; February LH up 725), cancelling back more than last week's losses. If we hold these levels, the board is pricing most of next year's cash well above breakevens for 10 consecutive months, a reality that could go far in maintaining country currentness and self-sustaining marketing.
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Wholesale pork prices continued to slide lower on Friday. Carcass value closed moderately lower, pressured by eroding demand for fresh cuts and bellies.
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CATTLE:(USDA) -- Last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration held a public meeting to discuss the use of livestock and poultry cell lines to develop cell-cultured food products. At this meeting, stakeholders shared valuable perspectives on the regulation needed to both foster these innovative food products and maintain the highest standards of public health. The public comment period will be extended and will remain open through December 26, 2018.
After several thoughtful discussions between our two Agencies that incorporated this stakeholder feedback, we have concluded that both the USDA and the FDA should jointly oversee the production of cell-cultured food products derived from livestock and poultry. Drawing on the expertise of both USDA and FDA, the Agencies are Monday announcing agreement on a joint regulatory framework wherein FDA oversees cell collection, cell banks, and cell growth and differentiation. A transition from FDA to USDA oversight will occur during the cell harvest stage. USDA will then oversee the production and labeling of food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. And, the Agencies are actively refining the technical details of the framework, including robust collaboration and information sharing between the agencies to allow each to carry out our respective roles.
This regulatory framework will leverage both the FDA's experience regulating cell-culture technology and living biosystems and the USDA's expertise in regulating livestock and poultry products for human consumption. USDA and FDA are confident that this regulatory framework can be successfully implemented and assure the safety of these products. Because our agencies have the statutory authority necessary to appropriately regulate cell-cultured food products derived from livestock and poultry the Administration does not believe that legislation on this topic is necessary.
HOGS: (RichRelevance) -- Rich Relevance, the global leader in Experience Personalization, has announced key findings from its Digital Grocery Survey: 2018 Holiday Edition consumer survey. The study finds that more than 4 in 10 Americans (44%) plan to shop online for some or all of the groceries they need for their Thanksgiving or holiday meal this year. This is more than twice as many people who shopped online for Thanksgiving groceries in 2017.
Amazon dominates as the top online grocery destination for shoppers (57%), followed by big-box retailers such as Walmart and Target (48%). Traditional supermarkets like Safeway and Kroger will attract a significant -- but quite smaller -- number of online shoppers (30%) this holiday.
The top Thanksgiving items that people plan to purchase online are bundled ingredients for side dishes (56%); canned items like cranberry sauce (51%); and beverages including alcohol (44%). Turkey (33%) and frozen/pre-made desserts (31%) are the least likely to be purchased online. When online orders are ready, more shoppers plan to pick up their groceries (47%) than have them delivered to their home (43%).
Americans overwhelmingly turn online for grocery shopping to save time (73%) -- and 1 in 4 (26%) choose to shop online because it allows them to shop for groceries during work hours. The top factors keeping people from shopping online for groceries are a lack of trust that others will pick the best or freshest items (50%) followed by a reluctance to spend extra money (37%). Across the board, respondents have strong opinion on which online tools would be most helpful as they plan and prepare a Thanksgiving or holiday meal. Half of Americans (50%) say that online personalized offers or discounts are helpful, followed by fast, accurate search results on a grocer's site (46%) and having a grocer present them with relevant alternatives when a desired item is not available (43%).
"With online grocery shopping on the rise, it is critical that consumers have the best possible digital experience," said Michael Ni, CMO, RichRelevance. "We're hearing directly from consumers that personalization and relevance define a positive, valuable online shopping experience. As companies race to differentiate and establish their brands in grocery, these experience investments will be critical in determining market leaders."
The survey of 1,565 U.S consumers was completed online in November 2018.
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