GENERAL COMMENTS: Trend-following speculators seem to be driving the day-to-day movements in livestock futures contracts this week. Generally steady results from the beef and pork markets continue to be supportive. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $1.24 higher ($42-$49, weighted average $47.20). Corn futures moved 3 to 5 cents higher Tuesday, suggesting the feed market will attempt to stay within its long-term sideways range. The stock market closed a tad higher, up 8 points on the S&P 500.
LIVE CATTLE: Steep, sudden losses in live cattle futures Tuesday were focused primarily in the nearby April contract, down $2.350. The speculators in this upward-trending market have previously built up an aggressively net-long position (holding eight long futures contracts for every one short contract), but all rallies come to an end eventually. The continuous chart may have topped out at $130.450 on March 1, and managed money may now feel spooked into a sudden burst of long liquidation. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $0.72 (select, $220.35) to $0.86 (choice, $228.22) with moderate to fairly good demand and light offerings (97 total loads of cuts, trimmings, and grinds).
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Wednesday's activity will typically involve the consideration of this week's showlists. Packers won't feel urgency to meet the higher asking prices ($207 dressed/$130 live) after seeing last week's supply numbers and the toppy behavior of the futures market.
FEEDER CATTLE: The feeder cattle futures market didn't require much convincing to follow along with live cattle's lower direction Tuesday. Daily trading volumes have been active lately while the 'managed money' speculators continue re-adjusting their outlooks to the livestock sector. The April contract has remained somewhere above $143.500 and below $147.850 since the end of January. CME cash feeder index for 03/11: $139.04, off $0.25.
LEAN HOGS: A number of factors are all pointing upward for the lean hog market lately, from the bullish pace of cold storage disappearance, to the ever-higher belly and ham prices, to the recovery in cash hog prices in China that have re-triggered the African swine fever fears, to the sense that the chart bottomed out last month. Additional futures buying during Tuesday's session brought the April contract $0.800 higher at the close. Carcass value closed noticeably higher again, driven primarily by the ham primal Tuesday (up $4.12). Pork cut-out: $67.62, up $1.20. CME cash lean index for 03/08: $51.98, up $0.27.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Hog buyers are expected to persist with generally firm bids, but at some point the bullishness will be all priced in.
 |
| #completecalfcare |
No comments:
Post a Comment