GENERAL COMMENTS:
There's more than one way to tango and it seems as if the market is just finding the right beat to follow before it picks its year-end rhythm. Wednesday's melody was proudly touted by the bearish base-drum players who kept their rhythm until enough traders believed that the days of stronger markets were over for 2019. But then Thursday came, and the bulls lifted their trumpets and played their fiddles too. Being able to rally nearly half of Wednesday's loss back in the feeder cattle markets and more than half in the live cattle contracts, the bulls gave it all they had until the closing bell. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.04 with a weighted average of $42.20. December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.63 points and NASDAQ is down 3.08 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Oh Friday, the pressure is one you. The bulls have shouted, the bears have roared and the complex is needing a direction. The live cattle contracts were able to close the day higher, December live cattle up $0.97 at $119.07, February live cattle up $0.82 at $124.92 and April live cattle up $0.42 at $126.10. Cash cattle trade was light in the North but some cattle did trade dressed for $182, $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
Closing boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.28 (241.06) and select down $1.69 ($215.84) with a movement of 139 loads (95.14 loads of choice, 24.27 loads of select, 10.24 loads of trim and 9.61 loads of ground beef). Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, steady with a week ago; down 4,000 head from a year ago.
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 higher. Regardless of what the board decides to do, cash cattle should be able to sell steady to $1.00 higher given that packers need to make some deals with this week. If the board pulls steady or higher at closing, cash cattle will have no trouble. If boxed beef prices are down again, and packers see the worry in feeder's eyes, they will play their cards smart and probably just end up paying steady prices again, rather than potentially $1.00 higher.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle market drove the market down Wednesday, but spurred the market’s momentum Thursday. November feeders closed $1.05 higher at $146.62, January feeders closed $1.22 higher at $144.05 and March feeders closed $0.75 higher at $144.07.
On an estimated run of 3,815 head (up 455 head from the previous week), Huss Livestock Market in Kearney, Nebraska, sold steers compared to last week under 700 pounds for steady to $5.00 higher except 550 to 600 pound steers sold $4.00 lower. Heifers 400 to 650 pounds sold steady to $3.00 lower. Demand was good, and buyers were plentiful. The CME feeder cattle index 11/13/19: down $0.05 at $147.39.
LEAN HOGS:
Despite the board's ambition early Thursday to send prices higher, the lean hog complex wasn't too sure of its nature and decided to let the cattle contracts rally and test the waters. December lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $62.75, February lean hogs closed $1.17 lower at $73.37 and April lean hogs closed $1.45 lower at $80.30. Pork cutouts totaled 341.11 loads with 309.02 loads of pork cuts and 32.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.02 at $87.04. The CME lean hog index 11/12/19: up $0.61 at $59.55.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1.00 lower. With the entire livestock complex losing some of its steam to the cattle contracts softening, and the fact that countryside hog conditions don't merit a strong market, it would be unusual for hog prices to jump Friday.
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