GENERAL COMMENTS:
Remember that uncle we talked about a while ago? The man who couldn't function when things went right, so he fell off the wagon and started drinking again? Well, the wagon may have gotten bigger and more of the market jumped on. And to boot, there's nothing like hearing that China has reached a deal to buy $100 million worth of pork for the 2020 calendar year to sour your day.
Hog prices on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report are lower, down $0.80 with a weighted average of $45.15. December corn is down 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.07 points and NASDAQ is down 24.05 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts fared the day the best. Deferred contracts suffered more than nearby. December live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $119.00, February live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $124.70 and the April board closed $0.27 lower at $125.55. If there's going to be a spark this week, it's going to be in the live cattle cash trade. Despite another day being at an utter standstill, there is hopefulness in the patience of anxious feeders.
Closing boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.09 ($237.14) and select up $1.71 ($211.53) with a total movement of 132 loads (66.56 loads of choice, 25.29 loads of select, 11.05 loads of trim and 28.66 loads of ground beef). Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, that's 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1.00 higher. It wouldn't be surprising to see cash cattle wait to trade until the week's very end. Some cattle may start trading Thursday, but in order to get the expected $2.00-plus rally that many anticipate, trade will probably have to hold out another day.
FEEDER CATTLE:
On an estimated run of 4,073 head (down 2,710 head from last week) Mobridge Calf Auction in Mobridge, South Dakota, sold steer calves 450 to 700 pounds mostly steady with instances of $3.00 lower on 650 to 700 weights. Heifers calves weighing 400 to 650 pounds sold mostly steady. Moderate to good demand for Wednesday's offering of packages and loads featuring many Red Angus calves. Best demand is seen for heifer calves suitable for replacements.
The feeder cattle market closed lower: November contract down $1.05 at $146.80, January feeders down $1.35 at $144.42 and March feeders down $1.22 at $143.97. Given that a cold front is expected to float over parts of cow-calf country this week, sale barns could see a ramification if roads are too slick for trucks to get into town. The CME feeder cattle index 11/5/19: up two cents at $146.26.
LEAN HOGS:
The livestock complex was pressured enough by simple midweek weakness, but hearing that China has reached a deal to buy $100 million worth of pork for the 2020 calendar year from European pork producers put U.S. hog producers in a bind. Many analysts have wondered if the trade bantering between the U.S. and China continues, if China will make a deal at all before the next presidential election. On one hand, it's safe to say that China is at the end of their rope with the United States regarding trade agreements. On the other hand, the fact remains that China needs pork protein. If the United States can't secure more of a market share into the Chinese market as a pork supplier, our farmers will be severity affected.
December lean hogs closed $2.50 lower at $64.77, February lean hogs are down $0.97 at $72.77 and April lean hogs closed down $0.60 at $79.37. Pork cutouts totaled 324.73 loads with 289.62 loads of pork cuts and 35.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.44 at $80.94. The CME lean hog index 11/4/19: down $0.52 at $60.36.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: $1.00 lower. News briefings like the one listed earlier has a way of negatively affecting countryside psychology.
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