GENERAL COMMENTS:
Monday came as a mixed bag as the board rallied, but the cash cattle market fell considerably lower. Seeing that it's only the first trading day of the week makes feedlots worried about how the rest of the week will fare as prices are expected to only get lower as time ticks on. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.55 with a weighted average of $29.87 on 7,066 head. July corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 157.62 points and NASDAQ is up 137.21 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The board may have closed stronger, but the cash market did far from the same. A light trade developed in the North with dressed cattle selling from $159 to $167 which was $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Though the South saw every few cattle trade, those that did sold for $98 to $100 and Kansas's weighed average for Monday developed at $98, which is over $7.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Texas had cattle trade for $1.00, which is $3.50 lower than last week's average. Seeing that its only Monday, and that prices are lower, leads one to believe that the week will only get worse with time as showlists are greater this week.
Despite what the cash cattle market did, the board closed higher throughout then complex. June live cattle closed steady at $96.07, August live cattle closed $0.67 higher at $96.00 and October live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $98.65. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less from a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.03 ($228.61) and select down $4.92 ($214.35) with a movement of 166 loads (98.75 loads of choice, 28.65 loads of select, 13.78 loads of trim and 24.52 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Lower. As much as I hate to say it, this week could be ugly as prices dip already $3.00 to $7.00 lower from last week's averages.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts were able to rebound after the noon hour, but it wasn't enough to fully encourage feeder cattle sales throughout the countryside. There may have been enough technical support to pull the feeder cattle contracts higher, but the fact that cash cattle are bound to trade lower again this week weighed on the actual sales in the country. August feeders closed $0.07 higher at $131.17, September feeders closed $0.10 higher at $132.57 and October feeders closed $0.40 higher at $133.55. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to $5.00 lower with the exception of some yearling heifers trading $1.00 to $3.00 higher. Market activity picked up late in the morning as lot size and quality improved. Most weights and classes traded comfortably in the lower end to middle of last week's price spreads with the losses coming off the top side of the range. The CME feeder cattle index 6/12/2020: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was able to close the day with a nice rally and enter the new week on a positive note. July lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $52.27, August lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $55.27 and October lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $53.22. The market has danced around the $60.00 support plane. The cash market continues to trade lower, and from aggressive slaughter speeds, the cutout continues to drop. On a positive note, as slaughter continues to be aggressive, every day the market inches closer to having the backlog behind it.
Pork cutouts total 388.24 loads with 357.26 loads of pork cuts and 30.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.53, $65.46. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 457,000 head, 12,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/11/2020: down $0.02, $48.97.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Don't shoot the messenger, but the simple fact that supply is continuing to weigh on the market will most likely hold prices hostage at steady, if not allowing them to trend lower.
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