GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock contracts didn't stand a chance of trading higher Monday. The bearish mindset of the market took Monday, and traders are leery of trading before they know how far cash is going to fall, how the quarterly hogs and pigs report will fare or how this week's feeder cattle market will trade. This week has a lot on the table. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.05 with a weighted average of $28.48 on 6,188 head. July corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 153.50 points and NASDAQ is up 110.35 points.
Monday's Cold Storage report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 18% from the previous month, down 13% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 13% from the previous month, but up 2% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 24% from the previous month, down 26% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 27% from last month, down 8% from last year.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts were able to skate through Monday seeming to be least affected. August live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $95.12, October live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $98.57 and December live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $102.52. Yes, Monday closed lower, but seeing that the market only closed minimally lower compared to what nearby lean hogs and feeder cattle contracts did is noteworthy. Cash cattle trade was mostly quiet with just a handful of cattle trading in Nebraska. Dressed cattle sold in Nebraska for $152 to $155 -- though it certainly wasn't enough to establish the week's trend. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.34 ($214.06) and select up $0.39 ($204.30) with a movement of 154 loads (81.12 loads of choice, 33.00 loads of select, 17.11 loads of trim and 23.18 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Slightly lower. As cattle traders eye the first week of summer, everyone knows that lower prices are in the near future as the market has to wade through the backlog supply.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts kept with their same pace all throughout the day -- steadily lower. August feeders closed $0.80 lower at $131.75, September feeders closed $0.80 lower at $133.07 and October feeders closed $0.67 lower at $134.17. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week at midsession, steer and heifer calves sold steady to $5.00 lower, yearlings steers were called steady and yearling heifers were steady to somewhat weaker. Every Monday Joplin hosts their weekly sale and auctions off a respectable run of feeder cattle, marketing them to their fullest potential. Seeing prices tip lower this early in the week makes one a little anxious for the later sales yet to come this week. The CME feeder cattle index 6/19/2020: up $1.11, $129.12.
LEAN HOGS:
Continuing to keep with the steady trend lower, lean hog contracts closed lower Monday with the biggest losses seen in the nearby contracts. July lean hogs are down $1.62 at $46.82, August lean hogs are down $1.70 at $51.10 and October lean hogs are down $0.95 at $49.90. Until Thursday's quarterly hogs and pigs report comes out, the market may move very cautiously. Pork cutouts totaled 385.77 loads with 351.24 loads of pork cuts and 34.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.20, $64.84. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 458,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/18/2020: down $0.83, $45.61.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to slightly weaker. As the market continues to trade amid the backlog of hogs, the cash hog market is hostage with little room to grow.
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