Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Bullish Corn Report Sends Feeders Scampering Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The feeder cattle complex didn't fare well Wednesday, as cow-calf producers and feedlot managers alike were all hoping that more corn acres were going to surface in Wednesday's report. Nevertheless, the feeder cattle contracts closed fully lower with both the live cattle and lean hog contracts closing mostly higher. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.39 with a weighted average of $113.02 on 8,562 head. December corn is up 40 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $27.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 210.22 points and NASDAQ is down 24.39 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With the June live cattle contract now expired, the spot month of August takes the live cattle market's full attention, with October trailing closely behind. The spread between August and October shows the latter part of the year treating the market better than the nearby, as market supplies of readily-able fed cattle could be tighter especially if consumer demand continues to beckon for more beef. August live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $122.72, October live cattle closed $0.40 higher at $128.15 and December live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $132.10. Southern live cattle deals were marked at $120 to $122, which is steady to $2.00 lower than last week's movement. Northern dressed cattle sold for $198 which was about $1.00 higher than last week. Supplies in the North are more current than those in the South. Much of the trade that developed in Nebraska was for delivery for the week of July 12th. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 2,00 head more than a year ago.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 5,362 head, of which 608 actually sold, 407 head were scratched from the auction, and 4,347 head were listed as unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices that ranged from $95 to $126. Opening prices ranged from $90 to $121, high bids ranged from $119 to $124. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this: Texas 4,391 total head, with 447 head sold at $212.50-$122, 3,572 head went unsold, 372 head were scratched of those 149 head were scratched due to being sold via private treaty at $122; Oklahoma 753 total head, with 51 head sold at $120, 702 head went unsold; Kansas 218 total head, with 110 head sold at $124, 73 head went unsold and 35 head were scratched.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.05 ($291.29) and select down $1.13 ($269.27) with a movement of 131 loads (87.21 loads of choice, 22.83 loads of select, 9.30 loads of trim and 12.03 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Seeing that packers have successfully procured cattle in both regions leads one to believe that prices don't stand much of a chance of changing. The bigger question following last week's dismal trade is how many cattle will packers buy this week? The market needs to see a strong movement as last week there were less than 49,000-head purchased.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Wednesday's acreage report sent bull-spreaders diving into the corn contracts where most of the nearby contracts closed limit up. USDA announced an estimated 92.7 million acres of corn have been planted in 2021, which is less than expected but up from the 90.82 million acres planted a year ago. The slower trading week throughout the cattle contracts didn't take the blow of the bullish crop report well in the feeder cattle arena as feedlots continue to wonder about input costs amid drought conditions, high hay prices and a fickle corn market. August feeders closed $2.77 lower at $154.62, September feeders closed $2.37 lower at $157.42 and October feeders closed $2.05 lower at $159.52. The feeder cattle contracts thus far throughout the week have traded mostly sideways, seeming to want to let the holiday pass before testing any new territory. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 29: up $0.38, $147.10.

LEAN HOGS:

The spot July lean hog contract closed modestly higher like the deferred contract did, but the August 2021 through December 2021 contracts all closed somewhat lower. Even though the lean hog market has faced fundamental challenges this week with a slower processing pace, the technical side of the market has support higher trade. July lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $107.47, August lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $103.25 and October lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $87.27. Wednesday's slaughter ended up being better than anticipated as the market processed 470,000 head versus the estimated 462,000 head. With plants down this weekend in observation of the Fourth of July, it's relieving to see stronger daily speeds as opposed to weaker ones. On another note, it was interesting to see the day's cash hog market close over $2.00 higher as one would think that, ahead of the dark weekend, packers would be idle in the cash market, but we cannot overlook the fact that readily available hog supplies are still thin. Pork cutouts totaled 272.66 loads with 236.08 loads of pork cuts and 36.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $113.84. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 470,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 28: down $1.19, $113.00.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With the market being one day closer to the weekend, I'd lean toward betting that, after Wednesday's aggressive dive in the cash hog market, packers are going to be less aggressive in Thursday's market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Excitement in USDA Acreage Report Sends Feeders Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

USDA's Acreage report crushed the confidence in the feeder cattle market, but it didn't stir up too much emotion in the live cattle and lean hog markets. There's been a light movement of cash cattle thus far and, unfortunately, it's been for mostly lower prices than a week ago. December corn is up 36 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $24.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 180.86 points and NASDAQ is down 20.28 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are trading mostly higher as seeing packer interest drift into the market is refreshing and midday boxed beef prices are mixed as opposed to fully lower. Yes, packers are bidding on cattle, but it's at lower prices than a week ago! With packers buying less than 50,000 head last week, one would have hoped feedlots would have stuck to their guns this week and made packers pay up after last week's pathetic trade. But packers play a smart, strategic psychological game and they knew feedlots would be chomping at the bit to move cattle ahead of the holiday as some would be worried about carrying them into next week. Thus far there's been a light to moderate trade in the South at $122, which is $2.00 lower than last week, and even some cattle have traded in Nebraska for $122. Bids of $196 to $198 are being offered for dressed cattle in the North. August live cattle are steady at $121.87, October live cattle are up $0.05 at $127.72 and December live cattle are up $0.22 at $132.00.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 5,362 head, of which 608 actually sold, 407 head were scratched from the auction and 4,347 head were listed as unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices which ranged from $95 to $126. Opening prices ranged from $90 to $121, high bids ranged from $119 to $124. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this: Texas 4,391 total head, with 447 head sold at $212.50-$122, 3,572 head went unsold, 372 head were scratched of those 149 head were scratched due to being sold via private treaty at $122; Oklahoma 753 total head, with 51 head sold at $120, 702 head went unsold; Kansas 218 total head, with 110 head sold at $124, 73 head went unsold and 35 head were scratched.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.46 ($292.80) and select down $1.22 ($269.18) with a movement of 85 loads (58.69 loads of choice, 15.96 loads of select, 4.40 loads of trim and 5.78 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts knew Wednesday's USDA Acreage Report could throw a curve ball in the day's trade and it most certainly did. The USDA estimated 92.7 million acres of corn were planted in 2021, which is less than expected but up from the 90.82 million acres a year ago. DTN's Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said, "Overall USDA's plantings estimates are bullish for new-crop corn and new-crop soybeans, but slightly bearish for wheat." Nevertheless, the corn market's rally came at the cost of the feeder cattle contract's rally as feeders are trading $2.00 to $3.00 lower while nearby corn contracts flirt with trading limit higher. Without the countryside having much action to offset the acreage report, the contracts will most likely continue to trade in this doggish manner as the report comes ahead of the slow Fourth of July week. August feeders are down $2.75 at $154.65, September feeders are down $2.42 at $157.37 and October feeders are down $2.32 at $159.25.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures stuttered into Wednesday's trade initially, but as the day nears the noon hour the contracts are once again growing in confidence. July lean hogs are up $0.65 at $107.62, August lean hogs are up $0.62 at $104.25 and October lean hogs are up $0.80 at $88.60. Wednesday's slaughter is only estimated to be around 462,000 head, which again doesn't bode well for the cash hog market or consumer demand amid a thinly stocked meat counter. Until the market is past the Fourth of July, volatile swings are highly anticipated as the market has to dance around fewer workers being present at plants, traders being out for a long week and little interest in the cash market amid slower chain speeds.

The projected two-day CME Lean Hog Index for 6/29/2021 is down $0.81 at $112.13, and the actual index 6/28/2021 is down $1.12 at $112.94. Hog prices are unavailable on the National Direct Morning Hog Reported due to confidentiality with only 3,415 head being reported. Pork cutouts total 177.03 loads with 151.19 loads of pork cuts and 25.84 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.02, $115.24.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - USDA Reports Expected to Influence Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures closed mixed Wednesday in a somewhat uneventful trading day. June live cattle will finish their final trading day, moving August to the spot-month position. This is not expected to create any unusual volatility as the market will remain close to cash. August is trading at a slight discount, but it has two months to accomplish the task of anticipating where cash will be and then settling to it. The limited cash activity that has developed does indicate that cash prices might be higher. It has been a bit surprising that more cash activity has not surfaced given the low volume last week and the need to purchase cattle. Feedlots seem to have the upper hand at the present time and may hold for at least a couple dollars higher. Packers are keeping an eye on plummeting boxed beef prices and what it will take to meet demand. Choice cuts fell $5.09 with selects cuts down $3.56. Packer margins remain very profitable.

July hog futures shined Tuesday, closing with a double-digit gain. Later contracts just could not keep up with it, but still closed higher. The National Direct Afternoon price was down $1.90 and cutouts were down $0.91. That is not a good combination conducive to continued upside price movement. However, with hogs being marketed at lighter weights, and with some being so light resulting in discounts, the concern over continued tightening supply is alive and well. Traders may buy futures in anticipation of hog supplies becoming short. The mandate of slower chain speed may not be an issue for a week or so as July Fourth is the holiday with generally lighter slaughter numbers. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 12,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle has not been very active and the later in the week it goes without much activity, the better the potential for higher prices.	1)	Slaughter surrounding the holiday may vary, which may leave packers somewhat less aggressive to purchase supply until holiday demand is accessed.
2)	Feedlots seem to be holing the cards as they know packers will need to step up before the end of the week to purchase what they need this week and to make up for light trade lasts week.	2)	Packers and feedlots may be waiting to see the information from the Acreage and Quarterly stocks reports before becoming more serious about cash activity.
3)	July hogs hold a discount to cash with great strides made over the previous two days to move closer. Further strength is possible.	3)	July hog futures left a price gap below the market on the open Tuesday that will need to be filled.
4)	July and August hog futures closed a chart gap Tuesday and may be headed to close gaps that remain above.	4)	Cash continues to decline, reducing the upside potential for futures for the time being.

**

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Mostly Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog contracts had no problem closing higher, but it was the cattle contracts that had to work a little more diligently to secure their higher closes. Heading into Wednesday, the cash cattle market should see packer interest arise and feedlots are gunning for higher prices. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.90 with a weighted average of $110.63 on 3,126 head. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 9.02 points and NASDAQ is up 27.83 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts flirted with the notion of trading higher, and though the market wasn't able to pull off the victory, the nearby contracts did close mildly higher. August live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $121.92, October live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $127.75 and December live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $131.77. The soon to be spot contract of August has a lot more room, technically, to trade higher than the December contract, which is already trading $9.85 higher than the August contract. The downward spiral of the boxed beef market continues and that will likely continue through July. The cash cattle market wasn't able to accomplish much of anything Tuesday afternoon. There was a handful of cattle that traded in Iowa from $198 to $200 but it wasn't on a large enough sampling to even mention. The CBP Texas Cash Pool sold 989 head at $121.25, with the only bother bid coming in at $118.00. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and steady with year ago levels.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $5.09 ($292.34) and select down $3.56 ($270.40) with a movement of 157 loads (100.46 loads of choice, 30.73 loads of select, 10.41 loads of trim and 15.77 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. Packers left the cash cattle market high and dry last week, and feedlots know that, with their aggressive slaughter speeds, at some point they're going to have to look at the cash market again. Holidays always throw a curveball into the markets, but I truly believe that feedlots are going to hold out until they see more serious offers.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle sales are light ahead of the holiday weekend. Given that the Fourth of July lands on Sunday this year, next week's market will be lightly tested, and sale barns that host sales early in the week are likely to postpone until the following week. Nevertheless, the feeder cattle market is still trying to trade diligently amid any opportunity that arises on the board. The spot July corn contract closed a whopping $0.19 stronger, but the rest of the market closed mostly steady, as recent rains are appreciated in some regions but burdensome to the new crop in others. August feeder cattle closed $1.05 higher at $157.40, September feeders closed $0.72 higher at $159.80 and October feeders closed $0.52 higher at $161.57. The feeder cattle market would love to see some support arise from the live cattle complex, but thus far the cash cattle market hasn't been able to throw the market any bones. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 28: up $0.54, $146.72.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contract kept its wind through closing despite seeing weaker cash hog prices, softer pork cutout values and a relatively small daily slaughter. July lean hogs closed $2.02 higher at $106.97, August lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $103.62 and October lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $87.75. What was more surprising to see than the market's lower cash hog trade (which isn't surprising), as that the day's total volume only amounted to 3,126 head. With the last two days having doggish processing speeds, one would be inclined to think that the entire week could run at sub-75,000 head per day levels with the Fourth of July holiday being this weekend and with packers not showing much support for the cash market. Pork cutouts totaled 288.91 loads with 258.59 loads of pork cuts and 30.32 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.91, $114.22. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 461,000 head, 14,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 25: down $1.24, $114.19.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With packing speeds running slower this week, packers aren't likely to dive into the cash hog market ahead of the holiday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Rally Upon Modest Trader Interest

The cattle contracts have been fortunate to attract some trader interest heading into Tuesday afternoon as earlier the market was fairly grim. The corn market's hesitancy has helped boost feeder cattle futures and, keeping with their trend this week, the lean hog market is rallying while traders are around after last week's fall. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 55.02 points and NASDAQ is up 20.89 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is posting a shiny rally heading into Tuesday afternoon, but the market still doesn't have a comfortable gauge on what packers intend to do this week. With last week's disappointing movement, one would like to believe packers would be forced into committing desperately needed supplies this week through the cash market. But with the Fourth of July affecting processing speeds this week and most likely next week as well, packers have a little bit of wiggle room. Asking prices in the South have been pegged at $124-plus; the North has not yet disclosed what their asking prices will be. Nevertheless, the strength that's developing on the market's technical front is encouraging and could help push a stronger undertone in the cash market. June live cattle are up $0.15 at $122.25, August live cattle are up $0.45 at $122.05 and October live cattle are up $0.37 at $127.90. Bids could begin to develop lightly throughout Tuesday afternoon, but it's looking like this week's business may hold off until at least Wednesday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $4.62 ($292.81) and select down $2.50 ($271.46) with a movement of 95 loads (56.96 loads of choice, 18.76 loads of select, 5.64 loads of trim and 13.74 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Corn futures are still rallying modestly in the spot July contract, but the feeder cattle market is eyeing the mixed to weaker trade throughout the other contracts as a positive for feeders to trade higher. August feeders are up $1.55 at $157.77, September feeders are up $1.20 at $160.27 and October feeders are up $1.12 at $162.17. The market is going to see sales throughout the countryside moderately tested early this week and then tested moderately again late next week; but for the days around the Fourth of July, the market will see very few cattle trade. Most sale barns take the week off as buyers don't want to haul the cattle on a holiday and then have a crew ready to process them upon arrival. It's easiest to simply let the holiday come and pass and then jump back into business as usual.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are rallying again as the market has finally been able to coax traders into feeling comfortable after last week's substantial deterioration. July lean hogs are up $2.00 at $106.95, August lean hogs are up $0.87 at $103.65 and October lean hogs are up $0.67 at $88.07. But just because the technical side of the market is finding clarity, doesn't mean fundamentals have life completely figured out. Slower processing speeds have been seen thus far for the week, which comes as a determent in getting consumers the product they yearn for. Eventually if continued over a long-period of time, this could negatively weigh on the cash market if supplies build.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/25/2021 is down $1.24 at $114.19, and the actual index for 6/24/2021 is down $2.19 at $115.43. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.11 with a weighted average of $110.37, ranging from $110.00 to $113.00 on 2,830 head and a five-day rolling average of $115.46. Pork cutouts total 181.59 loads with 159.93 loads of pork cuts and 21.66 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.41, $118.54.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Gains in Hogs Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle were under pressure due to the significant increase of grain prices. Live cattle were the victims of some spread trading as nearby months were lower while contracts in 2022 were higher. The influence of the Cattle on Feed report was evident during the day, but the end result did not indicate the market was ready to trend higher. Wednesday is the last trading day for the June live cattle contract, which may limit trading activity until then. There was no cash activity Monday or even an indication of bids or offers. It will be interesting to see what type of prices and when trading activity will take place due to the upcoming holiday as plants may vary their down times on Friday or Monday with no activity on Saturday. Going through another week similar to last week with limited cash activity will not be acceptable to packers as plants need to keep plants running and demand satisfied. Boxed beef prices plummeted again Monday with choice cuts down $7.13 and select cuts down $2.22. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of 5,442 contracts bringing their total net-long positions to 69,015 contracts.

Hogs stole the show Monday with July, August and October closing limit up. This certainly was not driven by cash as the National Direct Afternoon report showed price down $4.36. However, what was lost in the cash market was made up for in cutout values. Cutouts jumped $5.09, a welcome change from last week. Futures were driven higher technically due to an oversold market, but they also may have been influenced by the reduced chain speed that will go into effect beginning Wednesday. It is too early to tell what influence this may eventually have on pork supply and consumer prices. It is expected to impact smaller hog producers in areas. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net sellers of 10,787 futures contracts reducing their total net-long positions to 75,716 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Packers may need to bid up in order to obtain the desired amount of cattle necessary to keep plants running full and demand satisfied.	1)	Cattle futures just could not hold higher prices Monday, eventually succumbing to pressure. Spread trading and pressure from lower feeder cattle was too much to overcome.
2)	Light cash trading last week and no activity Monday may indicate feedlots are willing to hold out for higher cash.	2)	June futures will go off the board Wednesday and August futures are at a discount to June, indicating traders do not anticipate much upside for cash.
3)	The limit-up gains in futures Monday should see some follow-through Tuesday morning with further short-covering expected by those who could not liquidate Monday.	3)	Hog futures uncovered technical support Monday, but that was not supported by the cash market.
4)	The large increase of cutouts Monday indicated demand is alive and well.	4)	The reduction of chain speed may back up some hogs over time, which may result in reduced cash prices as producers will be more anxious to sell when they can.

**

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Fear Higher Corn Prices While Hogs Find Much-Needed Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures didn't have much luck with Monday's trade on a technical front, but the lean hog contracts didn't bat an eye about trading higher after being mostly lower last week. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $4.36 with a weighted average of $112.53 on 5,916 head. December corn is up 28 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 150.57 points and NASDAQ is up 140.12 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures wanted to trade mildly higher, and they did so in the deferred contracts, but the nearby contracts feared the market's uncertainty and closed modestly lower. August live cattle closed $1.20 lower at $121.60, October live cattle closed $0.87 lower at $127.52 and December live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $131.92. The cash cattle market didn't see any significant trade develop and, following last week's lousy movement, the market sat waiting for anything to happen. Understanding that plants will be dark on this upcoming Saturday, and could have limited production this Friday and even next Monday, really puts the cash cattle market on edge as the market desperately needs to keep chain speeds elevated and needs to keep showlists current. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle traded totaled 48,965 head. Of that 67% (32,832 head) are committed for nearby delivery while the remaining 33% (16,133 head) are committed for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $7.13 ($297.43) and select down $2.22 ($273.96) with a movement of 119 loads (84.78 loads of choice, 18.04 loads of select, 7.93 loads of trim and 8.26 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. Feedlots could have tipped their hats to packers last week and let cattle go at cheaper prices, but instead they opted to try to get more money and it's likely they try again this week even though time isn't in their favor. It wouldn't be surprising to see packers start to show interest in feedlot showlists as early as Tuesday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Corn futures rallied into Monday afternoon and closed substantially higher, 28 to 39 cents higher in the nearby contracts. Given the rally and the recently found demand that buyers have been asserting at sales across the country, the feeder cattle contracts most likely could have traded higher if the corn market would have been modest in its rally. But a rally that flirted with closing limit higher was a bit much for the feeder cattle contracts to stomach Monday. August feeders closed $3.20 lower at $156.35, September feeders closed $2.17 lower at $159.07 and October feeders closed $1.65 lower at $161.05. At the midsession point at Oklahoma's National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week feeder steers and heifers sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher. Demand was good for feeder cattle despite the cattle futures being lower and corn prices again scaling higher. Steer calves were lightly tested but a few sold for $4.00 higher and heifer calves traded $2.00 to $8.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 6/25/2021: down $0.11, $146.18.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market found a bottom (for now) at $100.00 in the spot July contract and at $98.75 in the nearby August contract, and rallied robustly through Monday's trade. July lean hogs closed $3.00 higher at $104.95, August lean hogs closed $3.00 higher at $102.77 and October lean hogs closed $3.00 higher at $87.40. The cash hog market saw weaker interest, which is likely stemming from slower processing speeds which are going to be a mandated reality for some plants as early as this week. Food Safety News reported, "The plants will be required to a maximum line speed of 1,106 head per hour starting June 30, as opposed to the current 1,225 to 1,450 head they are managing."

Pork cutouts totaled 299.59 loads with 256.22 loads of pork cuts and 43.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.09, $115.13. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 454,000 head -- 14,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Friday's slaughter was revised to 442,000 head -- 9,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index 6/24/2021: down $2.19, $115.43.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Seeing that Monday's market endured a significant drop, it wouldn't be unlikely to see Tuesday's market steady, especially given the fact that pork cutouts closed more than $5.00 higher.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Feel Pressured While Hogs Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures aren't having much luck finding support Monday, but lean hog futures are finding ample support and are taking full advantage of the day's opportunity. December corn is up 20 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 205.25 points and NASDAQ is up 106.24 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures aren't finding much grace in Monday's early trade as the market tries to understand where we rounded out last week and what this week aims to accomplish. August live cattle are down $1.25 at $121.55, October live cattle are down $0.90 at $127.50 and December live cattle are down $0.25 at $131.97. With last week's cash cattle movement so lousy, and the next two weeks shortened as the Fourth of July lands on Sunday, the cash cattle market knows it's got a tough road ahead.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle traded totaled 48,965 head. Of that 67% (32,832 head) are committed for the nearby delivery while the remaining 33% (16,133 head) are committed for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.40 ($303.16) and select down $1.51 ($274.67) with a movement of 48 loads (31.40 loads of choice, 7.57 loads of select, 6.15 loads of trim and 2.94 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The relationship between corn and feeder cattle futures isn't a favorable one Monday morning as corn accelerates and take a lofty run at rallying 17 to 23 cents higher in its nearby contracts, which consequently sends feeders crumbling. August feeders are down $2.27 at $157.27, September feeders are down $1.60 at $159.65 and October feeders are down $1.30 at $161.40. Combine the market's stress from rising inputs along with the lackadaisical movement of fat cattle last week and the feeder cattle contracts are hoping sales early this week and late next are plentiful to make up for the market's shortcomings, But the market knows all too well that holiday-influenced weeks are especially tricky for sale barns.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are having a stellar Monday, rallying full steam ahead into the day's afternoon trade. The market found some technical backing at the $100.00 threshold and has been able to rally confidently even amid weaker fundamentals. July lean hogs are up $2.52 at $104.47, August lean hogs are up $2.62 at $102.40 and October lean hogs are up $2.40 at $86.80. The market is still subject to endure vast, volatile swings as the cash market is finicky, the pork cutout value continues to wane lower, and holiday-shortened weeks always add dynamic to the market's mix.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/25/2021 is down $1.23 at $114.06, and the actual index for 6/24/2021 is down $2.23 at $115.29. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $5.12 with a weighted average of $110.48, ranging from $110.00 to $120.00 on 3,431 head and a five-day rolling average of $117.14. Pork cutouts total 174.64 loads with 151.45 loads of pork cuts and 23.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.08, $115.12.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Should See Initial Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures were able to close slightly higher as traders were cautious ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. It had been a back and forth week beginning with a large price increase at the beginning due to the jump in cash. However, there rest of the week showed limited cash business being done through the close of futures trading Friday. Feedlots seemed to be waiting for the Cattle on Feed report to see if they have foundation to build on. Packers were waiting for the report to see how aggressive they need to be to procure needed supply. Packers appear to be well-supplied with cattle for the next few weeks, but they will need to continue to purchase ahead. The Cattle on Feed report was slightly friendly relative to trade estimates. The number of cattle on feed came in at 100% with the trade estimate at 100.6%. Placements were at 93% compared to trade estimates of 95.1%. Marketings were 123% compared to the estimates of 123.5%. It is difficult to assess just how this all compares due to the disruptions of the industry a year ago, but the main focus of the trade will be how the actuals fell in relationship to the estimates. Boxed beef was mixed, but the decline of choice cuts of $2.86 far outweighed the increase of select cuts of $0.04.

Hog futures posted a positive close Friday but had a difficult time holding the highs of the day. Cash on the National Direct Afternoon report showed an increase of $0.70, which had little impact on the market due to the significant decline of $2.95 in the cutouts. It will be difficult for the trade to overcome the large decline of futures last week as July hogs fell $6.72 while August hogs fell $6.90. Price charts are very ugly, but in the wake of the fall, price gaps were left at levels quite a bit higher than the current market. These gaps will likely be filled, but it will take a monumental effort to accomplish the task. The Hogs and Pigs report is history and already digested. The market will move forward on cash and fundamentals.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was slightly friendly to the market, which may provide some support to futures.	1)	July 4th is nearly here, and demand may slow after the holiday. That coupled with slower exports could back up supply.
2)	The fact that there was limited trading through the end of the week would suggest packers may need to be more aggressive this week and may bid higher.	2)	Boxed beef continues to decline, which will have an impact on the willingness of packers to maintain higher bids.
3)	Hog futures are severely oversold and ripe for a bounce.	3)	The bounce Friday may be just that. Futures may not have found a bottom.
4)	Lower cutouts should stimulate demand and an increase in demand will require packers to increase ownership of hogs in a market that is seeing tighter supply.	4)	The weakness of cutouts is not providing much support. Packers were aggressive buyers Friday, leaving them with the ability to wait and see what the early indication of demand will be this week.

**

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Still Looking for Bids in the Cash Cattle Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a wild week in the market with a quarterly hogs and pigs report, a Cattle on Feed report, and an untested cash cattle market at Friday's close. Needless to say, the markets are dealing with volatile swings and will likely see fluctuations in next week's trade. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.70 with a weighted average of $116.89 on 7,855 head. July corn is down 16 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 237.02 points and NASDAQ is down 9.32 points.

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $1.78, August live cattle up $1.25; August feeder cattle up $4.53, September feeder cattle up $4.03; July lean hogs down $6.72, August lean hogs down $6.90.

LIVE CATTLE:

It may be Friday and the day is almost done, but there is still a lot of business that needs to be done throughout the cash cattle market, otherwise this week's movement will be plum pathetic at only 35,461 head. Packers are not wanting the nation's weighted average to scale any higher and that's why feedlots are seeing such little interest in the Southern Plains, and any deals that are coming in the South are at ridiculous prices. There has been a little bit of trade in the Texas reported at $118, which is $4.00 lower than the rest of the week's trade. Meanwhile in the North, of the cattle that have traded, deals of $197 to $201 were made. August live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $122.80, October live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $128.40 and December live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $132.22. Friday's Cattle on Feed report didn't shake the market, especially not so when cash cattle trade is lagging as much as it is.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected at 70,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. The week's total estimated slaughter is pinned at 661,000 head, down 2,000 from a week ago and 4,000 head from a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.86 ($304.56) and select up $0.04 ($276.18) with a movement of 93 loads (61.90 loads of choice, 17.83 loads of select, 8.80 loads of trim and 4.90 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week boxed beef prices ascended lower compared to last week's averages. Choice cuts through the week averaged $312.20 (down $17.52 from last week) and select cuts averaged $277.79 (down $14.71 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds, and trim totaled 541 loads. The week's choice/select spread averaged a wide $34.41.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: It's hard telling what Monday will be until this week's trade is finalized. It's very likely that we see more trade develop late Friday afternoon, so be on the lookout for Monday's weighted average. If Friday isn't successful in moving any more cattle, next week packers will have to be more aggressive in the market to keep chain speeds running at the levels they are now.

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the corn market endured another grueling week, the feeder cattle contracts didn't neglect to capture the opportunity to rally amid lower input prices. August feeders closed $2.40 higher at $159.55, September feeders closed $2.05 higher at $161.25 and October feeders closed $1.60 higher at $162.70. Buyers were interested in purchasing feeders this past week as the market finally gave them an opportunity to invest. The new-crop corn is trending at levels that are still high compared to years past but are far more favorable than what the market's been accustomed to here in 2021. Compared to last week the Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Summary shared that feeder steers sold $1.00 to $3.00 higher, and feeder heifers sold mostly steady. Steer calves sold $3.00 to $8.00 higher and heifer calves sold $1.00 to $4.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 24: down $0.20, $146.29.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog contracts snuck in a higher close before trailing out for the week after a depressing week of lower trade and immense volatility. July lean hogs closed $1.92 higher at $101.95, August lean hogs closed $1.07 higher at $99.77 and October lean hogs closed $1.20 higher at $84.40. After ping-ponging around this week, Friday afternoon pork cutout values decided to close lower yet again, signaling that a price correction is well underway. Nevertheless, packers stepped up to Friday's market in the cash hog sector and bought nearly 8,000 head for higher prices even though Saturday's kill is expected to be a dismal 25,000 head. Pork cutouts total 254.53 loads with 219.03 loads of pork cuts and 35.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.95, $110.04. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 451,000 head, 13,000 head less than a week ago and 17,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 25,000 head - 35,000 head less than a week ago and 283,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 23: down $1.97, $117.62.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Seeing that packers were aggressive in Friday's cash hog trade leaves one to believe that they will be idle next week until they see how demand is going to shape up.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - The Battle Continues Between Feedlots and Packers

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The tension in the live cattle market is thick morning as packers are unwilling to pump up their bids and thus far haven't been able to convince feedlots into caving into steady prices. Meanwhile, the lean hog market is relishing in Friday's support while the feeder cattle complex enjoys anther day of lower trending corn. July corn is down 16 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $7.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 221.06 points and NASDAQ is up 6.51 points.

LIVE CATTLE

It's not very often that we see the cash cattle market this quiet, for this long. This week's trade has been only lightly tested as packers aren't willing (thus far) to up their bids, and feedlots are unwilling (thus far) to cave into steady prices. The market has had a relatively aggressive slaughter week and if Saturday can post a big kill, packers will need to venture into the cash market to ensure enough supplies for the weeks ahead. The board is trading lower, which doesn't favor feedlots position, but midday boxed beef prices are higher, which does help strengthen their stance. June live cattle are down $0.72 at $122.10, August live cattle are down $1.02 at $121.60 and October live cattle are down $0.90 at $127.37. Asking prices in the South are pinned at $122 to $124 and in the North from $202 to $204. Thus far, there's yet to be any new bids hit the table. Be on the look out for Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, though it's not expected to unveil anything wild, it could spark trade throughout the countryside.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.98 ($308.40) and select up $1.19 ($277.33) with a movement of 44 loads (31.33 loads of choice, 8.39 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.03 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

The feeder cattle contracts welcome another day of lower trading corn and relish the opportunity to trade higher yet again. It may seem somewhat crazy that the feeder cattle market is delighted to see corn prices in the upper $5.00-range when you think of last year's market of $3.00 to $4.50 corn, but feedlots have a more wiggle room to work with when corn is trading at that range as opposed to the prices seen earlier this year when corn was trending from $6.00 to $7.25. The feeder cattle contracts strength this past week has genuinely stemmed from the corn market's regression. As cow-calf producers continue to face drought, high hay prices and too little of water, this week's rally was not only needed financially but also psychologically. August feeders are up $0.55 at $157.70, September feeders are up $0.62 at $159.82 and October feeders are up $0.55 at $161.65.

LEAN HOGS

The lean hog market is trying to make a comeback after Thursday's chaotic trade. The market weathered another export report and though it was down slightly from both the week before and the four-week average, it was rather interesting to see China buying at all given how vastly their own market has deteriorated. As Thursday afternoon rolled around, the market braced itself for the quarterly hogs and pigs report, for the deferred contracts the report could be considered somewhat bullish with fewer hogs than expected surfacing on the report. Still, the market sits with pressure looming above it. Even though the futures market is trading higher in Friday's afternoon, the wild and highly volatile price swings seen throughout the pork cutout market are enough to keep the market on edge. July lean hogs are up $0.50 at $100.52, August lean hogs are up $0.57 at $99.25 and October lean hogs are up $0.37 at $83.57.

The projected lean hog index for June 24 is down $2.23 at $115.29, and the actual index for June 23 is down $1.97 at $117.52. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.73 with a weighted average of $115.60, ranging from $111.00 to $120.00 on 4,125 head and a five-day rolling average of $118.77. Pork cutouts total 167.30 loads with 148.78 loads of pork cuts and 23.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.53, $112.46.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Report Behind, Cattle Report Ahead

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were able to close higher in all contracts with the exception of August. There was little to get excited about due to limited cash trading. It certainly does not seem as if cash will be higher than the first indications of the week. Much more business should be done Friday as packers need to purchase cattle. Whether they will need to bid up to get them is the question that will be answered today. Boxed beef finally slowed its descent, ending mixed Thursday with choice cuts down $4.63 and select cuts up $0.73. Export sales were respectable with an increase of 31% over the previous week. China was the third largest buyer. Futures trading might be somewhat uneventful Friday as traders will look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report to be released this afternoon at 2 p.m. CDT. The average estimate for cattle on feed is for an increase of 0.7% from a year ago. Placements are expected to show a decline of 4.6% from a year ago. Marketings are estimated to show an increase of 23.6% from May 2020. The numbers will be skewed due to the disruptions last year, but the trade will react to how the actual numbers will fall in relation to the estimates.

Hogs tried to find support Wednesday but could not hold Thursday with July closing limit down, which may have been the only reason that price did not fall below $100. The market was not helped by the sharp drop of cash Thursday with the National Direct Afternoon price down $6.60. Cutouts had a nice turn around Thursday with an increase of $5.17. If cutouts find a bottom, maybe cash will as well. Export sales were somewhat uneventful with a decrease of 2% from the previous week and down 4% from the four-week average. China was the fourth largest buyer. The Hogs and Pigs report showed all hogs and pigs at 75.653 million head, down 2.2% from a year ago. This decline was slightly less than the trade estimate. Kept for breeding totaled 6.230 million head, a decrease of 1.5% and mostly in line with what the estimate was. Kept for marketing totaled 69.423 million head, down 2.3% and slightly lower than the estimate. It would appear this report may be somewhat neutral, but it is difficult to make a proper comparison to last year. Saturday hog slaughter is projected at 25,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There was limited cash business done Thursday, leaving it up to the end of the week. There is a possibility packers may need to bid up to obtain the necessary number for the week.	1)	With the Cattle on Feed report after the close Friday, traders may remain cautious with some liquidation possible.
2)	If actual numbers and the Cattle on Feed report comes in under what the trade expects for herd size and placements and higher than they expect for marketings, futures could move higher.	2)	If packers do not bid higher than they already have, live cattle futures may remain stagnant.
3)	July hogs hold a huge discount to cash and will need to converge over the next 3 weeks.	3)	July hogs closing limit down would suggest some follow-through at the start of trading.
4)	Futures are severely oversold and ready for a bounce. Now that the Hogs and Pigs report is history, this could unfold.	4)	Weakening cash does not give traders confidence to step back into the hog market aggressively to establish long positions.

**

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Pick Up Modest Support While Hogs Break Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The feeder cattle sector once again closed higher amid a mostly lower trending corn market, while the live cattle complex barely closed higher, seeming to just absorb some of the momentum from the feeder cattle market. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $6.60 with a weighted average of $116.18 on 6,746 head. July corn is down 11 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $8.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 322.65 points and NASDAQ is up 97.98 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts were hesitant to trade up but eventually came around to the idea and closed almost fully higher. August live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $122.62, October live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $128.27 and December live cattle closed $0.20 higher at $131.70. The market traded painfully slow and the cash cattle market's trade was thin again. There was just a little trade in the North at $197 and live cattle in the South traded for $122. Thus far, dressed cattle have traded $1.00 higher than last week and live cattle have traded mostly steady with last week's trend. The market needs to see more trade develop before the week's end otherwise this week's volume is going to be utterly pathetic. As the market looks to Friday, the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report isn't supposed to unveil any unforeseen surprises. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

The market wasn't expecting to see significantly lighter carcass weights on Thursday's actual slaughter data report, but a it sure beats the alternative! For the week ending June 12, steers averaged 882 pounds (down 9 pounds from the previous week) and heifers averaged 811 pounds (down 1 pound from the week before). For the week, cattle slaughter totaled 670,297 head. As we've chatted about before, the market desperately needs to see June post aggressive kills throughout the month in order to work through supplies without facing a back-up in inventory thanks to the market's lackadaisical nature that processors ran at earlier this year.

Beef net sales of 16,900 mt reported for 2021 were up 31% from the previous week, but down 3% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,700 mt), Japan (4,000 mt) and China (1,600 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $4.63 ($307.42) and select up $0.73 ($276.14) with a movement of 132 loads (78.45 loads of choice, 25.54 loads of select, 17.67 loads of trim and 9.94 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that a small sampling of cattle have traded, prices could be steady with the week's trend. But more important than price at this point in the week is sheer volume. The market needs to see a big movement come Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market ended up closing mixed (showing minimal support for the December 2021 through July 2022 contracts) but the rest of the market closed lower, which in return allowed for feeders to have another rallying day. August feeders closed $1.45 higher at $157.15, September feeders closed $1.12 higher at $159.20 and October feeders closed $1.12 higher at $161.10. The spot August contract is unwilling to push into the resistance at $158.00, but with Wednesday's lower close the market was able to buy itself some time before having to decide what it was going to do. The market's demand amid high hay prices and spreading drought conditions is stellar. Though the sale averages for Northern Livestock Video Auction's Early Summer Special aren't available yet, calves were sought aggressively from buyers. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 23: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The rally is always a lot more fun than the fall, and the lean hog market is enduring quite the fall right now. July lean hogs closed $4.50 lower at $100.02, August lean hogs closed $2.02 lower at $98.70 and October lean hogs closed $0.65 lower at $83.20. The limit loss seen in the July contract comes as traders are moving to the August contract, and there was a lot of skepticism ahead of Thursday afternoon's hogs and pigs report. Most are interpreting the report with great caution as the market has been anything but simple and straight forward in the last year. I understand that it's maddening to see the market's pork cutout value up over $5.00 Thursday afternoon as the market just endured the blows Tuesday's $12.93 loss. But that, my friends, is the definition of a volatile market -- a volatile market trying to find footing and unsuccessfully doing so. Pork cutouts totaled 336.90 loads with 307.61 loads of pork cuts and 29.29 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.17, $112.99. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 22: down $1.14, $119.59.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared lighter weights, for the week ending June 12, for both live and dressed hog carcass weights. Live carcasses averaged 286 pounds (down 3 pounds from the previous week) and dressed weights averaged 213 pounds (down 2 pounds from the previous week).

Pork net sales of 28,600 mt reported for 2021 were down 2% from the previous week and 4% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (11,500 mt), Canada (5,200 mt) and Japan (3,200 mt).

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Packers will most likely coast into the weekend, having secured inventory earlier in the week, and will pick up business next week as the market continues to search for answers.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Brace Themselves Ahead of Quarterly Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle futures are the only livestock contracts really taking full advantage of Thursday's support as both live cattle and lean hog contracts have contradicting signals to manage. Heading into Thursday afternoon the market will be anxious to see what USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yields and what cash cattle trade develops into. July corn is down 9 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 238.64 points and NASDAQ is up 135.88 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are caught between a rock and hard spot as the market likes the idea of trading higher but doesn't feel like the nearby contracts can do so considering the undeveloped cash cattle market. The hype surrounding the feeder cattle rally given the lower trending corn market has allowed for some of the deferred live cattle contracts to rally; but nearby contracts are skeptical. August live cattle are down $0.35 at $122.52, October live cattle are steady at $128.17 and December live cattle are up $0.17 at $131.67. If the technical side of the market can trade fully higher, it may add enough pressure to the cash cattle market to persuade packers into paying at least $1.00 higher if not more. There are a few scattered bids on the table thus far but largely the market is still oddly quiet. There's been a few cattle trade in Nebraska at $126 Thursday morning but otherwise the market's yet to see any substantial trade develop.

Beef net export sales of 16,900 metric tons (mt) reported for 2021 were up 31% from the previous week, but down 3% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,700 mt), Japan (4,000 mt) and China (1,600 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $4.19 ($307.86) and select up $1.00 ($276.41) with a movement of 70 loads (40.21 loads of choice, 13.35 loads of select, 10.29 loads of trim and 6.57 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market is thankfully trading higher amid a lower trending corn complex. It is also savoring the sweet essence of higher trade as Northern is hosting their Early Summer Special sale Thursday. August feeders are up $1.10 at $156.80, September feeders are up $0.85 at $158.92 and October feeders are up $0.87 at $160.85. The market is indeed trending higher but is still timid of pushing past the resistance in the spot August contract at $162.00.

LEAN HOGS:

Ahead of Thursday afternoon's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, the lean hog market is trying to trudge through another day of mixed market signals. The futures complex is seeing minor support creep into some of the deferred contracts, but the nearby contracts are still feeling heavily pressured. July lean hogs are down $3.95 at $100.57, August lean hogs are down $1.20 at $99.52 and October lean hogs are down $0.20 at $83.65. The volatility in the pork cutout values lives on as the morning's pork cutout report shared that the day's cutout was up $7.00. These violent swings are likely to be the market's tone until a bottom to this downward spiral is found.

Pork net export sales of 28,600 mt reported for 2021 were down 2% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (11,500 mt), Canada (5,200 mt) and Japan (3,200 mt).

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/22/2021 is down $1.14 at $119.59, and the actual lean hog index for 6/21/2021 is up $0.05 at $120.73. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $6.61 with a weighted average of $116.33, ranging from $110.00 to $125.00 on 4,615 head and a five-day rolling average of $119.10. Pork cutouts total 163.02 loads with 143.96 loads of pork cuts and 19.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.00, $114.82. 

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Price Support for Futures Remains Elusive

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Just when we thought livestock markets were finally finding some support this week, the bottom fell out again. Traders were disappointed there was very little activity in cash cattle trade, leaving them wondering if the higher cash earlier this week will hold or possibly increase. The continued decline of boxed beef also provides some negative influence on the market. Boxed beef is falling with a vengeance as choice cuts were down $3.70 and select cuts down $4.34. Packers may pay higher this week to purchase the cattle they need, but that may come to an end if supply is beginning to back up in the market. Export sales will provide some indication whether international demand continues to remain strong and may set the tone for trading Thursday. On the other hand, futures trading activity may be somewhat subdued due to the Cattle on Feed report that will be released Friday afternoon. The Senate Ag Committee began a hearing Wednesday into the meatpacking industry due to imbalance that has been seen in the market between cash cattle and boxed beef prices.

Even though hog prices have declined substantially over a recent period of time, they are not finished eroding. Cash fell $5.26 on the National Direct Afternoon report. Even though cutouts declined only a penny Wednesday, the sting of Tuesday's huge decline carried over into Wednesday's trading. There may be some follow-though selling earlier in the trading period as some traders may want to get out of the way of the weakness. Weekly exports sales will need to be exceptional to change the tide of the current market and sales to China will be an important part of the report. However, the market may find some stability as it looks forward to the Hogs and Pigs report Thursday afternoon. Average estimates are for All Hogs and Pigs at 97.7%, Kept for Breeding at 98.9%, and Kept for Market at 97.6%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle are expected to trade higher for the week as indicated by earlier activity. This should provide some stability.	1)	Even with lower grain prices Wednesday, cattle futures just could not generate sufficient buying interest to move the market higher.
2)	Beef exports from Argentina are being re-established, but only at a rate of 50% of the level of their exports last year. This should keep more business coming to the U.S.	2)	Boxed beef continues to freefall, which will eventually affect cash cattle prices.
3)	July hog futures are running at a large discount to cash. If cash shows some signs of stability, futures will rebound.	3)	July hog futures are anticipating a substantial decline of cash over the next 3 weeks as traders anticipate further weakness.
4)	There are numerous price gaps in the charts substantially above the current market that need to be filled. Plus, the market is oversold and in need of a correction.	4)	China will need to be a significant buyer on the weekly exports sales report or it could support the long running idea that their internal pork supplies are growing.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Slow and Quiet for the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Wednesday's trade can be summarized as a pullback day for traders. After pushing the contracts higher Tuesday, traders panicked come Wednesday and looked to the market's fundamentals for direction. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $5.26 with a weighted average of $122.78 on 5,520 head. July corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $9.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 71.34 points and NASDAQ is up 18.46 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

There was hardly any action seen in Wednesday's live cattle market. Live cattle contracts fell lower and the cash cattle market went largely untested. June live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $122.50, August live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $122.87 and October live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $128.17. There was a light trade of cattle in the Northern Plains that sold for $197 ($1.00 higher than a week ago) and in the South there was just a sparse sampling of live cattle that sold for $122. Looking to Thursday, there should be more cash cattle interest as the market yet to really seen any substantial trade. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 5,844 head, of which 64 actually sold, 226 were scratched from the auction, 5,554 head were listed as unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices that ranged from $118 to $124. Opening prices ranged from $118 to $120, one lot at $90; high bids ranged from $120 to $122. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this: Texas 4,449 total head, all of which went unsold; Kansas 341 total head, with 64 head sold at $122, 170 head went unsold and 107 head were scratched from the auction; Oklahoma 1,054 total head, none of which sold; 935 went head unsold and 119 head were scratched from the auction.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.70 ($312.05) and select down $4.34 ($275.41) with a movement of 119 loads (60.79 loads of choice, 36.43 loads of select, 12.03 loads of trim and 9.24 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 higher. Packers aren't wanting to support the cash cattle market, but they might have to in order to get the cattle they need. It will be interesting to see what the week's total movement amounts to. We know that packers are sitting on committed supplies, so their need to support the cash cattle market isn't vast, but they still need to buy some.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts closed fully lower even though most of the nearby corn contracts closed slightly lower too. Following the market's strong rally over the last 10 days, traders were quiet in Wednesday's trade as they wanted to gauge where the market's fundamental support stood. If the cash cattle market can prove to be stronger this week, feeders stand a chance at trading higher yet again, especially if the corn market trades steady to even lower. Looking to Thursday, the market will have its eyes and ears on the Northern Livestock Video Auction's Early Summer Special sale as last week's debuting through Superior was strong, but still, producers look for more answers as to what this year's fall feeder cattle market could be. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 22: up $0.20, $145.44.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market endured a lower waning day as the market was still rocked by Tuesday's sharply lower pork cutout close. July lean hogs closed $3.00 lower at $104.52, August lean hogs closed $2.97 lower at $100.72 and October lean hogs closed $1.55 lower at $83.85. Looking to Thursday, the lean hog market's regression partly comes in preparation ahead of the week's export report. With China's hog market weakening, it's likely that Thursday's export report will be bearish as their need to buy foreign product dissipates. Pork cutouts totaled 366.64 loads with 316.44 loads of pork cuts and 50.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.01, $107.82. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 21: up $0.05, $120.73.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With demand lessening in the retail sector, packers' aggression in the cash market toward the later half of the week could be less.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Futures Trend Fully Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

After Tuesday's surge, livestock futures have been left high and dry without a stitch of support to be found from traders. Cattle futures are looking for support from the cash cattle market, but thus far packers have distanced themselves from the market and aren't wanting to participate just yet. Meanwhile the lean hog market doesn't have much fundamental support to stand on given Tuesday's double-digit lower pork cutout close. July corn is up 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $8.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 21.08 points and NASDAQ is up 21.14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Movement in the live cattle market is painful to watch as the speed is slow as molasses. The futures market is having a difficult time finding any support after Tuesday's higher close. Without seeing much interest in the cash cattle market, the complex feels left high and dry not knowing what to do. August live cattle are down $0.75 at $122.42, October live cattle are down $0.50 at $127.87 and December live cattle are down $1.12 at $131.25. The countryside is seeing bids pop up of $197 to $202 in parts of Nebraska, but largely the cash cattle market is quiet -- very, very quiet. Asking prices are around $124 in the South and $204 in the North. Trade should begin to develop at any time now.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 5,844 head, of which 64 actually sold; 226 were scratched from the auction; 5,554 head were listed as unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices, which ranged from $118 to $124. Opening prices ranged from $118 to $120, one lot at $90; high bids ranged from $120 to $122. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this: Texas 4,449 total head, all of which went unsold; Kansas 341 total head, with 64 head sold at $122, 170 head went unsold and 107 head were scratched from the auction; Oklahoma 1,054 total head, none of which sold, 935 went head unsold and 119 head were scratched from the auction.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $3.04 ($312.71) and select down $4.93 ($274.82) with a movement of 81 loads (42.92 loads of choice, 20.73 loads of select, 10.77 loads of trim and 6.93 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures aren't performing with the same gusto the market carried earlier in the week. Even with the corn market trading lower in all contracts (other than spot July which is only trading a timid $0.04 higher) the complex can't spring out of the doggish tone that's encompassed Wednesday's trade. But that feeder cattle contracts have made an aggressive rally over the last week, it's not that surprising to see the pause and for traders to want to gauge fundamental support before rallying onward. August feeders are down $1.95 at $156.40, September feeders are down $1.87 at $158.47 and October feeders are down $1.92 at $160.20.

LEAN HOGS:

Its looking like Tuesday's slightly higher close was just a freebie given to the lean hog market as Wednesday's trade is back to its downward nosedive. July lean hogs are down $3.00 at $104.52, August lean hogs are down $3.00 at $100.700 and October lean hogs are down $2.12 at $83.27. With Tuesday's pork cutout coming in at a new record for the biggest loss in one day, the attitude surrounding the lean hog market is fully lower. Now that may seem hard to fathom as cash hog prices are still scaling higher, but that stems from the fact that hog supplies are still thin and packers are having to dive into that market to keep their chain speeds running. With pork cutout prices seeing such an immense amount of pressure, monitoring processing speeds is going to be incredibly important moving forward.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/22/2021 is down $1.20 at $119.49, and the actual index for 6/21/2021 is up $0.06 at $120.69. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.60 with a weighted average of $122.94, ranging from $115.00 to $137.50 on 3,605 head and a five-day rolling average of $119.82. Pork cutouts total 206.96 loads with 172.10 loads of pork cuts and 34.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.50, $110.33.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Triumph Amid Weaker Corn

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The feeder cattle contracts had to keep a close eye on the corn market's behavior Monday, but as the day neared its end, traders grew cold of the corn market, which ultimately allowed for feeders to close higher. Meanwhile, both the live cattle and lean hog contracts closed lower as neither of the contracts could attract substantial support. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.95 with a weighted average of $123.57 on 7,897 head. July corn is up 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 586.89 points and NASDAQ is up 111.10 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts weren't able to pull off a higher close like the feeder cattle contracts, but they are hoping to see at least a steady market in this week's cash cattle trade. Last week's pump in cash cattle prices gave the market some victory to savor as the market had been trading stagnantly steady for the previous eight weeks in a row. Pinpointing how packers will treat the cash cattle market in the weeks to come is difficult as they are making plenty on boxed beef prices to continue to support at least steady prices, but as the boxed beef market scales lower, they could be antsy to drop their cash bids. New showlists appear to be somewhat higher in Kansas, Texas, Nebraska and Colorado. There was a small sampling of trade that developed in Iowa, but nothing sizeable enough to consider that the market was tested. Trade could begin to develop Tuesday afternoon or sometime Wednesday. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 79,496 head with 78% (62,309 head) being committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 22% (17,187 head) were committed for the deferred delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.08 ($321.20) and select down $2.15 ($281.46) with a movement of 90 loads (49.72 loads of choice, 17.60 loads of select, 12.06 loads of trim and 10.56 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. With the Senate ag committee meeting Wednesday to address the cattle market, I don't think that packers will want to draw any attention their way with a weaker cash cattle market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market fought tooth and nail to keep both the July and September contracts higher, even if the rest of the market wanted to close lower. But as the day came to a close, the September contract slipped lower and left only the July contract to close a measly $0.04 higher. The weakness in the corn market gave the feeder cattle contracts an opportunity to muster, and before the day's end, the market closed modestly higher with the deferred contracts finding most of the market's support. August feeders closed $0.07 higher at $155.10, September feeders closed $0.15 higher at $157.37 and October feeders closed $0.27 higher at $159.32. The corn market's regression only came as fuel to the market's momentum throughout the countryside, as buyers are eager to buy after last week's exciting trade. At the midsession at Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to a week ago, feeder steers were trading $3.00 to $5.00 higher and feeder heifers were trading $3.00 to $6.00 higher with the biggest advancements seen on the heavier weights. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 18: up $1.13, $144.58.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market has posted a gradual rally since the beginning of the year, but once the market decided to trend lower, its pace has shifted from gradual to aggressive. July lean hogs closed $1.62 lower at $107.05, August lean hogs closed $3.00 lower at $103.67 and October lean hogs closed $2.65 lower at $85.45. The market did see supportive signs in both the afternoon pork cutout values and in the cash market, but with how aggressive the market's technical downtrend is, there wasn't enough of a bump in either prices to make the market think that trading steady or higher are a viable option. Pork cutouts totaled 335.41 loads with 298.91 loads of pork cuts and 36.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.11, $120.76. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 23,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 17: down $1.25, $120.43.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Monday's afternoon close of seeing the cash market up $0.95 is pretty aggressive for early in the week. Supplies are tight throughout the market, so packers will need to continue to purse the cash hog market for adequate supplies, but they will also want to ensure that the market's demand is yearning for the meat before they sacrifice any margin of their own.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Contracts Search for Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts are trudging through the week's early trade as the market tries to gain some understanding of where prices are headed. Traders are especially leery of the lean hog market as a regression is well underway. July corn is up 8 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 498.23 points and NASDAQ is up 95.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are modestly lower as the market looks for a sense of direction, unsure where the week is headed at this point. There's a lot of business to be conducted this week for the cattle market. Wednesday there will be a Senate Ag Committee hearing titled, "Examining Markets, Transparency and Prices From Cattle Producer to Consumer." Thursday there is another big feeder cattle sale as Northern Livestock Video Auction hosts their Early Summer Special. Friday we welcome another Cattle on Feed Report. So, while the markets and traders try to make sense of the technical and fundamental tones of the marketplace, cattlemen will have plenty to manage as well with the week's busy, busy schedule. The weaker trade seen last week throughout the corn market helped encourage the live cattle market partly. But more than anything, it was the $2.00 to $4.00 advancement made in the cash cattle market. Packers aren't going to be overly keen about moving the market higher again this week after they gave up some margin last week. But with the cattlemen getting the attention of Washington, D.C., the packers won't want to cut the market viciously either. June live cattle are down $0.47 at $120.57, August live cattle are down $0.82 at $120.70 and October live cattle are down $0.75 at $126.20.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 79,496 head with 78% (62,309 head) being committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 22% (17,187 head) were committed for the deferred delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.89 ($322.39) and select down $2.24 ($281.37) with a movement of 33 loads (15.32 loads of choice, 8.09 loads of select, 4.60 loads of trim and 4.54 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Breaking into Monday's trade, feeder cattle futures thought they were going to be able to continue last week's rally with the corn market's weaker tone. But as the day nears the noon hour, the market's tone isn't as favorable to feeders. With nearby corn prices trading mildly higher, the feeder cattle contracts are back to a modest regression as the live cattle market offers no support and traders are still trying to piece together the market signals to find a definitive direction. August feeders are down $0.87 at $154.15, September feeders are down $0.70 at $156.52 and October feeders are down $0.57 at $158.47.

LEAN HOGS:

As the market welcomes Monday, hog producers brace themselves for the week ahead. Looking at the market's charts, aggressive deterioration is seen all throughout the nearby and deferred contracts as the market refocuses its trajectory amid a weakening hog market in China and hit-and-miss consumer demand. Gauging how aggressive consumers are going to be after the Memorial Day weekend is always a tough mission for the retail sector. But with meat prices as high as they are, buyers have had even a tougher row to hoe as they want to offer enough choices but don't want to get stuck with overpriced product. Grinding through this week's trade, continuing to monitor slaughter speeds as it affects the cash hog market's fate and pork cutout values will be helpful in understanding the nearby market.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/18/2021 is up $0.25 at $120.63 and the actual index for 6/17/2021 is down $1.30 at $120.38. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $3.44 with a weighted average of $119.48 ranging from $113.00 to $135.00 on 4,812 head and a five-day rolling average of $120.13. Pork cutouts total 153.45 loads with 129.38 loads of pork cuts and 24.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.87, $127.52.