GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a phenomenal day for the cattle contracts as the feeder cattle complex led the day with $2.00 and $3.00 advancements. The live cattle market followed in its shadow, though certainly not as aggressively. The lean hog market hung back and traded lower as traders are cautious about this week's market given the weaker cutout close. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.37 with a weighted average of $116.89 on 5,566 head. July corn is down 25 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $9.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 85.85 points and NASDAQ is up 104.72 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle contracts weren't willing to run alongside the feeder cattle contracts, and rightfully so given the market's situation. With boxed beef prices having made a seasonal top, the market has a lot of questions to answer. How will boxed beef prices trade lower? Will it be in drastic price swings day or will the market give way little by little? And, will the boxed beef market's lower transition impact the cash cattle market in the weeks and months to come? The market has a lot of unanswered questions, and unfortunately isn't sitting at a price point that can sacrifice much. June live cattle closed $0.67 higher at $119.37, August live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $121.27 and October live cattle closed $1.02 higher at $126.80. Monday's cash cattle trade was at an utter standstill without any bids nor asking prices being noted. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas and Kansas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 98,467 head. Of that 67% (66,451 head) were bought with delivery for the next two upcoming weeks while the remaining 33% (32,016 head) were bought for the following 15- to 30-day delivery.
Boxed beef pries closed lower: choice down $2.09 ($335.47) and select down $1.80 ($303.41) with a movement of 80 loads (45.43 loads of choice, 14.90 loads of select, 11.61 loads of trim and 8.51 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 lower. Packers aren't going to want to pay steady prices as the boxed beef market has made a seasonal top, but nor do they want to receive any more negative buzz throughout the countryside when producers are agitated already. If the market sees steady prices this week, it will solely be because packers are giving charity bids.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex threw its guts at Monday's market and closed noticeably higher upon seeing the corn market's weaker trading day. August feeders closed $3.42 higher at $154.60, September feeders closed $3.30 higher at $156.82 and October feeders closed $3.10 higher at $158.57. Monday's close puts the market above both the 40-day moving average ($150.36) and above the 100-day moving average ($153.14). The market could feel some resistance at $156.00 as it is as the most recent high, but largely the market's rally will once again stem from whether or not the corn market decides to bow down or try to regain some of what Monday lost. This comes at a very pivotal time as the market anticipates Superior's Corn Belt Classic this upcoming Thursday where over 51,000 head of cattle will sell. The market will be anxious to not only see prices but to also get a feel on where producers and buyers alike think this market is headed. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 11: down $0.62, $139.61.
LEAN HOGS:
The now spot July contract felt plenty of technical pressure Monday, seeming to fall right in line with last week's weaker trade. July lean hogs closed $1.75 lower at $118.22, August lean hogs closed $2.17 lower at $114.80 and October lean hogs closed $1.80 lower at $94.80. The hog market felt a sharp drop in the market's pork cutout close, but the individual cuts of meat showed a vast array of different prices. The loin, butt, picnic ham and belly were all lower, while ribs were up $15.60. It's important to keep in mind that when supplies are tight and demand is high, these types of choppy, volatile closes are anticipated. Pork cutouts total 319.20 loads with 282.47 loads of pork cuts and 36.73 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.86, $128.68. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 22,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 10: up $0.93, $120.84.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Monday's cash hog market was down noticeably and only 5,566 head were bought. Packers may want to see some further follow through from the buying side of the market before they get too deep into this week's cash hog market.
No comments:
Post a Comment