Monday, June 28, 2021

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Feel Pressured While Hogs Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures aren't having much luck finding support Monday, but lean hog futures are finding ample support and are taking full advantage of the day's opportunity. December corn is up 20 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 205.25 points and NASDAQ is up 106.24 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures aren't finding much grace in Monday's early trade as the market tries to understand where we rounded out last week and what this week aims to accomplish. August live cattle are down $1.25 at $121.55, October live cattle are down $0.90 at $127.50 and December live cattle are down $0.25 at $131.97. With last week's cash cattle movement so lousy, and the next two weeks shortened as the Fourth of July lands on Sunday, the cash cattle market knows it's got a tough road ahead.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle traded totaled 48,965 head. Of that 67% (32,832 head) are committed for the nearby delivery while the remaining 33% (16,133 head) are committed for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.40 ($303.16) and select down $1.51 ($274.67) with a movement of 48 loads (31.40 loads of choice, 7.57 loads of select, 6.15 loads of trim and 2.94 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The relationship between corn and feeder cattle futures isn't a favorable one Monday morning as corn accelerates and take a lofty run at rallying 17 to 23 cents higher in its nearby contracts, which consequently sends feeders crumbling. August feeders are down $2.27 at $157.27, September feeders are down $1.60 at $159.65 and October feeders are down $1.30 at $161.40. Combine the market's stress from rising inputs along with the lackadaisical movement of fat cattle last week and the feeder cattle contracts are hoping sales early this week and late next are plentiful to make up for the market's shortcomings, But the market knows all too well that holiday-influenced weeks are especially tricky for sale barns.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are having a stellar Monday, rallying full steam ahead into the day's afternoon trade. The market found some technical backing at the $100.00 threshold and has been able to rally confidently even amid weaker fundamentals. July lean hogs are up $2.52 at $104.47, August lean hogs are up $2.62 at $102.40 and October lean hogs are up $2.40 at $86.80. The market is still subject to endure vast, volatile swings as the cash market is finicky, the pork cutout value continues to wane lower, and holiday-shortened weeks always add dynamic to the market's mix.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/25/2021 is down $1.23 at $114.06, and the actual index for 6/24/2021 is down $2.23 at $115.29. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $5.12 with a weighted average of $110.48, ranging from $110.00 to $120.00 on 3,431 head and a five-day rolling average of $117.14. Pork cutouts total 174.64 loads with 151.45 loads of pork cuts and 23.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.08, $115.12.




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