Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - New COVID-19 Variant Scares Livestock Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The futures contracts struggled as the onset of the new COVID-19 variant comes with more unknowns than knowns. The feeder cattle complex was the only livestock contract able to close higher, and even its nearby contracts struggled. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report up $1.45 with a weighted average of $56.60 on 7,160 head. March corn is down 14 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 652.22 points and NASDAQ is down 245.14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market closed lower Tuesday. December live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $135.87, February live cattle closed $1.40 lower at $137.90 and April live cattle closed $1.45 lower at $141.07. Not helping matters was the nosedive that choice cuts endured by the day's end. While we all thoroughly understand that boxed beef prices have been bolstered to prices nearly $30.00 above last year and that these types of thresholds are rarely sustainable long term, it's never friendly to see the market topple lower. The cash cattle market saw bids of $138 be offered in parts of the Southern Plains, but feedlots paid packers' bids no attention and let the day close without engaging in any trade. The market could see interest pick up as early as Wednesday as packers seek to secure more supplies for the weeks ahead. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, steady with a week and year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $5.90 ($271.68) and select down $1.73 ($260.29) with a movement of 199 loads (125.97 loads of choice, 30.22 loads of select, 32.25 loads of trim and 10.08 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1.00 to $2.00 higher. Packers committed 90% of last week's purchases to the nearby delivery, which likely means that they still need cattle and will participate in the weeks ahead.

FEEDER CATTLE:

While the nearby contracts still closed lower, the deferred feeder cattle contracts couldn't help but trade higher as the corn market's $0.14 to $0.15 loss was just too good to be true in feeders' eyes. Not only did the weaker corn market look appealing to the feeder cattle market, but when you think about next year's marketing of spring born calves, next fall is going to yield the potential to demand higher prices as the sees fewer calves available. The liquidation cycle that has pushed a lot of producers into culling a percentage of their herd will undeniably be noted in the calf market in 2022. January feeders closed $0.87 lower at $164.85, March feeders closed $0.05 lower at $166.50 and April feeders closed $0.25 higher at $168.82. At the mid-session point of the sale, at Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, Missouri, compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 500 pounds traded $8.00 to $12.00 higher with the heavier weights trading $4.00 to $8.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 29: up $1.17, $162.46.

LEAN HOGS:

The cash hog market has been able to demand substantial attention over the last couple of days as the market has successfully been able to close higher and on a significant volume of hogs traded (significant for the current cash market anyway). As the market looks to the end of the year, I tend to believe that packers are anxious about getting supplies committed for the weeks ahead to avoid chasing the market during the holidays and in hopes of there even being more export opportunities to come in the near future. Nevertheless, the futures market and pork cutout value didn't fare as positively, but there was significant volume of pork moved as the day's cutouts totaled 440.14 loads. The technical pressure mostly stemmed from the outbreak of the new COVID-19 variant, which sent the entire futures market into a tizzy. December lean hogs closed $0.97 higher at $73.37, February lean hogs closed $0.95 lower at $79.97 and April lean hogs closed $0.65 lower at $85.25. Pork cutouts totaled 440.14 loads with 378.87 loads of pork cuts and 61.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.01, $86.70. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, steady with a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 26: down $1.03, $70.60.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. The hog market has been seeing more interest from packers in the cash market and given that there was a big volume of pork moved, they could continue to chase the cash market in the days ahead.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - New Variant Concerns Send Bulls Retreating

GENERAL COMMENTS:

I know it's the absolute last thing you want to spend time talking about, but the outbreak of the omicron COVID variant has sent the market tumbling lower as vaccines are less effective on this strain and it could take months before a new vaccine is developed. From the corn market to the NASDAQ to the feeder cattle contracts, the entire marketplace is lower -- worried about what this may mean for the marketplace and the U.S. economy. March corn is down 17 1/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 663.88 points and NASDAQ is down 322.81 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As if the struggles of a scant labor force and a broken supply chain weren't problematic enough, the pressure of the unknown surrounding the omicron variant is having a toll on the live cattle contracts. December live cattle are down $1.10 at $135.75, February live cattle are down $1.72 at $137.57 and April live cattle are down $1.72 at $140.80. Thankfully the market hasn't seen any doggish attitudes surround the cash cattle market thus far, but it's still early in the week. There are a few bids being offered in Texas at $138, but the South is asking $143 to $145, and the North has yet to disclose their asking prices. Trade isn't expected to really shake loose until midday Wednesday, or potentially even later in the week.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.05 ($276.53) and select down $0.80 ($261.22) with a movement of 87 loads (48.54 loads of choice, 12.74 loads of select, 18.69 loads of trim and 7.28 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle contracts are closely watching the cash cattle market to see how it's going (or not going) to be affected by the new COVID strain, as they would love to rally as the corn market tumbles 16 to 18 cents lower in fear of the virus. But without the fundamental support of the cash market, the complex is trading modestly lower -- not seeming in a hurry to decide what exactly its position is yet. January feeders are down $1.07 at $164.67, March feeders are down $0.55 at $166.00 and April feeders are down $0.37 at $168.20. It will be interesting to see how sale barns fare with this new news buzzing throughout the marketplace. It's most likely the markets still see strong demand as the live cattle futures still show excellent rewards in the months to come.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex would most likely be rallying as pork cutout values are higher again and the cash market is continuing to be supported. But the futures aren't going to get overly confident without knowing how vast the toll of this new strain is going to be. December lean hogs are down $0.07 at $72.32, February lean hogs are down $1.87 at $79.05 and April lean hogs are down $1.45 at $84.45. If cutouts can champion a higher close Tuesday afternoon, then packers could continue to support the cash market in the days to come as they are seeing strong demand even though holiday buying is nearing its end.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/29/2021 is down $0.56 at $70.04, and the actual index for 11/26/2021 is down $1.03 at $70.60. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.32 with a weighted average of $55.42, ranging from $55.00 to $58.00 on 4,885 head and a five-day rolling average of $55.13. Pork cutouts total 215.28 loads with 177.89 loads of pork cuts and 37.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.82, $89.53.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hauler Hours Extended Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders had nothing to go on Monday, so some profits were taken just in case the omicron virus becomes a greater economic issue. This uncertainty will make traders nervous. This could also impact cash trading this week. Packers seem to be current without having many forward contracted. This would lend itself to the idea they will need to be more aggressive again this week. They have limited bargaining power as long as they keep a strong slaughter pace and are purchasing cattle mostly as they need them. There is anticipation cash will be at least $1.00 higher this week, but there is strong potential for more than that. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds increasing their long futures positions by 13,235 contracts to a net-long futures position of 65,461 contracts. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has extended the hours of service for livestock haulers through Feb. 28, 2022.

Hog futures rebounded in deferred months after the large decline on Friday. Unfortunately, December is testing the low as it holds close to cash with only two weeks left for the contract. Optimism is no longer an aspect of the contract as it will remain unaffected by futures potential. The National Direct Afternoon report showed an increase of only $0.02, leaving little to get excited about. Packers continue to find sufficient hogs without having to bid aggressively for them. Greater excitement stemmed from cutouts jumping $3.73, but the erratic nature of cutouts left little for traders to hang their hats on. The Commitments of Traders showed funds increasing their long futures positions by 8,429 contracts bringing their long futures positions to 55,193 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The weakness of cattle Monday was the result of some profit-taking after a large increase. The uptrend remains intact.	1)	The omicron virus is now being indicated to be a greater threat and could have a greater impact on the economy than initially thought Monday.
2)	Cash is expected to be higher this week due to demand remaining strong and packers having limited supply forward contracted.	2)	Even though packers may not have many animals forward contracted, they may be unwilling to remains as aggressive as last week with only limited interest in bidding higher.
3)	Deferred hog contracts continue to remain strong as optimism for higher cash prevails.	3)	December hog futures are again testing the lows with limited potential for upside as the market remains in line with cash.
4)	Demand is strong with cutouts jumping significantly, led by hams.	4)	Market-ready hogs remain plentiful, leaving packers with the upper hand with no need to bid higher to obtain supplies.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Look for Support in Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts didn't walk away with any wild wins through Monday's trade, but feedlots aren't worried about this week's trade after seeing how aggressive packers were in last week's cash market. Upon seeing that packers committed 90% of last week's volume for the nearby delivery. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.02 with a weighted average of $55.15 on 11,221 head. December corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $6.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 236.60 points and NASDAQ is up 291.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Monday may have been a tough pill for the cattle complex to swallow after rallying aggressively throughout last week's trade, but that doesn't mean that this rally is over. Traders appraised the marketplace Monday morning, and without seeing any renewed support from the cash market, they treaded gingerly throughout the marketplace, ultimately letting the market sink lower. Upon seeing how packers committed the cattle they bought last week, it's still evident that they are short bought and likely to continue to support the cash market in the weeks ahead, as they are buying most of their cattle with the nearby delivery. December live cattle closed $1.17 lower at $136.92, February live cattle closed $1.90 lower at $139.30 and April live cattle closed $1.32 lower at $142.52. The cash cattle market saw a few head of cattle trade in Nebraska for $137.50, but by no means was the trade large enough to think that some sort of a trend could be established for the week. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 110,593 head. Of that 90% (99,083 head) were committed for the nearby delivery while the remaining 10% (11,510 head) were committed for the deferred delivery of the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.43 ($277.58) and select down $0.26 ($262.02) with a movement of 82 loads (51.22 loads of choice, 18.76 loads of select, 5.61 loads of ground beef and 6.13 loads of trim).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. The market isn't likely to see any real substantial trade develop until at least Wednesday, if not even later. Feedlots stand a good chance at demanding higher prices again this week as packers are expected to run fast processing speeds again.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market may have pulled back from last week's rally, but that doesn't mean that sales throughout the countryside weakened! Traders were leery of the marketplace as the market longed for support from the live cattle market, but nothing seemed to surface by the day's end. It's anticipated that the cash cattle market will be able to demand at least steady prices, if not push the market higher again this week, and if all the stars align for the market to be able to do so, then feeders should be able to rally again. January feeders closed $1.42 lower at $165.72, March feeders closed $1.42 lower at $166.55 and April feeders closed $1.30 lower at $168.85. At the midway point at the Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle sale in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher and feeder heifers sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher. Steer and higher calves were selling anywhere from $4.00 to $6.00 higher with instances up to $15.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 26: unavailable at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The pork market saw a jump in pork cutouts, which most likely stemmed from some last-minute holiday buying as the ham jumped $7.05 alone. Packers have been notably aggressive in the cash market over the last few trading days and, as the new year approaches, it's safe to anticipate that packers want to make the most of their time between now and then while demand is heightened. The nearby contracts lagged behind the rest of the market as the deferred contracts rallied well over $1.00 higher. December lean hog closed $0.80 lower at $72.40, February lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $80.92 and April lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $85.90. Pork cutouts totaled 335.31 loads with 301.09 loads of pork cuts and 34.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.73, $87.71. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 24: unavailable at this time.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Packers have been aggressive in the cash hog market as they hunt down supplies to secure processing in the near future. With pork cutout values summoning support, packers are anxious to run faster chain speeds while demand is present.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Step Meekly Into Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures are overconfident thus far Monday as traders desperately yearn to see follow-through support from the market's fundamental sense before making further advancements on top of what last week accomplished. Meanwhile, the hog complex isn't worried about trading grimly and sees robust support in the furthest deferred months. December corn is down 7 3/4 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 309.47 points and NASDAQ is up 303.63 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

If the cash market isn't on the forefront of your mind, I'm not sure what would be because the current cash cattle market is utterly amazing. Just three weeks ago the market thought it died and went to heaven when fats broke $130; now the upper end of last week's trade peaked at $140. The sheer demand the beef market is seeing is incredible and it's beyond evident that packers are short-bought and the availability of market ready cattle is thin. This bodes extremely well for feedlots and, as long as packers keep an aggressive chain speed, this hype in the fat cattle market could sustain well into 2022. The futures complex is hesitant to rally into Monday's trade as traders are tiptoeing into the week's business, needing to see follow-through support from the market's fundamental sense. December live cattle are down $1.30 at $136.80, February live cattle are down $1.97 at $139.22 and April live cattle are down $1.55 at $142.25. Given that packers again committed most of last week's purchases to the nearby delivery slot leads one to believe there will be good interest in this week's cash cattle market. Showlists this week are steady in Texas, higher in Kansas and lower in Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 110,593 head. Of that 90% (99,083 head) were committed for the nearby delivery while the remaining 10% (11,510 head) were committed for the deferred delivery of the following 15 to 30 days.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.56 ($282.57) and select up $0.73 ($263.01) with a movement of 28 loads (16.33 loads of choice, 8.01 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 3.24 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market is regressing after posting lavish gains last week. Last week's Friday-to-Friday livestock contract changes shared that last week the January feeder cattle contract jumped by $6.22, and the March feeder cattle contracts grew by $4.60. So, to see traders stepping back and looking for follow-through support come Monday isn't unusual. January feeders are down $1.42 at $165.72, March feeders are down $1.67 at $166.30 and April feeders are down $1.65 at $168.22. The market's regression doesn't come from a fundamental standpoint but rather from a technical sense as traders need to see follow-through fundamental support in order to feel comfortable moving the complex higher yet again this week. All throughout last week both feeder cattle and calves sold with phenomenal demand so it's likely sales early this week are met with the same aggression.

LEAN HOGS:

Despite the spot December lean hog contracts traipsing just barely below steady, the lean hog complex is trading mostly higher Monday and is seeing significant gains in its furthest deferred months. December lean hogs are down $0.05 at $73.15, February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $81.57 and April lean hogs are up $0.75 at $86.15. Traders are seeing the strong fundamental support in both the pork cutout value and in the cash market as positive signs to further the hog market's upside and to forget about Friday's rocky close.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/26/2021 is down $1.03 at $70.60, and the actual index for 11/24/2021 is down $0.93 at $71.63. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.13 with a weighted average of $55.10, ranging from $52.00 to $57.00 on 5,885 head and a five-day rolling average of $55.00. Pork cutouts total 148.02 loads with 132.74 loads of pork cuts and 15.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.50, $91.48.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Uncertainty Surrounds Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Holiday trading volume and the announcement of a new strain of COVID could not overcome the bullishness of a large price increase for cash cattle. Rather than packers holding back during the holiday-shortened week, they became more aggressive, needing to purchase cattle for current slaughter as well as some for futures delivery. Weekly export sales were 24% lower than the previous week and down 6% from the four-week average, but traders were more interested in the strength of cash and the prospect for higher cash again this week. The initial anticipation is for higher cash but not to the extent of what was seen last week. Boxed beef prices were mixed Friday with choice up $0.90 and select down $1.19.

Hogs fell apart over the news of a new virus strain and pressure from outside markets. Lower cash and cutouts added to the pressure as buyers remain unaggressive. Price on the National Direct Afternoon report showed a decrease of $0.53. Cutouts were down $1.00. Weekly export sales were down 30% from the previous week and down 43% from the four-week average. Concerns surfaced over the potential for export disruptions if the new virus strain becomes more contagious, affecting demand and shipping. A rebound in many of the outside markets may provide some support to futures Monday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures held in the face of the potential for the new COVID strain to affect export demand and demand from the food service industry.	1)	Lower export sales last week were not supportive and further disruption of exports might surface if the new COVID variant becomes more widespread.
2)	Exceptionally strong cash last week sets the stage for higher cash again this week as feedlots will again look for more.	2)	Packers may be reluctant to bid higher for cattle after their aggressive display last week. Feedlots will ask for more but may not get it.
3)	The sell-off of hog futures might have been more of a reaction rather than a reality. Futures may rebound again Monday.	3)	The sharp break of hog futures Friday may trigger further liquidation Monday as the market follows through with further losses.
4)	Traders may view the sell-off Friday as a buying opportunity for the long term.	4)	Hog weights have increased again, indicating plentiful supply with some backing up in the market. This will leave packers less aggressive this week.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Cling to Bullish Outlook Amid New COVID-19 Variant

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though it was a holiday week where little is expected to take place, as sale barns are mostly closed for the week, traders tend to take a couple extra days off and no one is as attune to the markets as usual, but this week was as busy as ever. The fat cattle market rallied up to $140 live, the cattle contracts saw huge gains and, come Friday, there was news that a new COVID-19 variant had been found in South Africa. Come next week, the market will have a lot to absorb and rationalize. Hog prices closed $0.53 lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, posting a weighted average of $55.13 on 5,715 head. December corn is up 7 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 905.04 points and NASDAQ is down 353.56 points.

Friday to Friday livestock contracts scored the following changes: December live cattle up $4.57, February live cattle up $3.50; January feeder cattle up $6.22, March feeder cattle up $4.60; December lean hogs down $0.55, February lean hogs down $1.45.

LIVE CATTLE:

Despite the rest of the futures complex crumbling before Friday's eyes, the live cattle market continued to trade in its bullish fashion and seemed unbothered by the world's chaos. December live cattle closed $0.20 higher at $138.10, February live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $141.20 and April live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $143.85. All in all, Friday's trade was quiet throughout the live cattle sector, as the live cattle contracts paid no attention to the rest of the market's buzz, and the week's cash cattle business was essentially already done with. Heading into next week, the market will most likely be quiet until Monday when all can see how packers committed the cattle, they bought this week. Obviously, feedlots hope that packers are still committing a large portion of their needs to the nearby delivery so that they are forced into supporting the cash cattle market in the weeks to come. Throughout the week live cattle traded in the Southern Plains for $138 to $140 and Northern dressed cattle sold for $217 to $220. Of the cattle that sold for $220, some were bought with time, with delivery for the week of Dec. 6.

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 1,000 head. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 81,000 head.

The week's actual slaughter data shared surprising data concerning carcass weights as both steer and heifers saw an increase from the previous week. Steers averaged 924 pounds (up 5 pounds from the previous week) and heifers average 844 pounds (up 2 pounds from the previous week).

Beef net sales of 19,300 mt for 2021 were down 24% from the previous week and 6% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,600 mt), China (4,400 mt) and Canada (2,800 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.90 ($280.01) and select down $1.19 ($262.28) with a movement of 50 loads (19.79 loads of choice, 8.56 loads of select, 12.19 loads of trim and 9.82 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1.00 higher. Even though the cash cattle market has been on fire and feedlots have been able to regain some much-needed leverage, I believe this market is going to see more upside in the near future, as fact stands that the nation's cowherd is dwindling, which should spark greater competition for cattle all the way through the feedlot.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the corn market posted a $0.05 to $0.07 rally in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle complex didn't seem to mind as the contracts closed mostly higher. January feeders closed $0.22 higher at $167.15, March feeders closed $0.07 higher at $167.97 and April feeders closed $0.07 higher at $169.87. With the feeder cattle contracts having all the upside potential from a technical standpoint and getting the green light from a fundamental basis with the cash cattle market seeing immense support and buyers aggressive in sale barns, cow-calf producers that still have calves to sell are beaming as the market is picking up more steam. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 24: down $0.35, $157.48.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market struggled throughout Friday's trade as initially it was only the deferred contracts that were trading lower, but by the day's end, the complex closed sharply lower. December lean hogs closed $2.22 lower at $73.20, February lean hogs closed $3.22 lower at $81.02 and April lean hogs closed $2.65 lower at $85.40. By and large it would appear that the news of the new COVID-19 variant carried a heavy toll on the market, which makes sense given that any supply chain hinderances doesn't bode well for the complex. Labor has been an immense issue for packing plants over the last year and half and new hurdles for the market aren't what anyone's glad to see. Pork cutouts totaled 201.17 loads with 175.06 loads of pork cuts and 26.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.00, $83.98. Thursday's slaughter is estimate at 2,000 head. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 470,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and year ago. Saturday's kill is projected at 363,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 23: down $0.59, $72.56.

Pork net sales of 17,500 mt for 2021 were down 30% from the previous week and 43% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (11,300 mt), Japan (2,400 mt) and South Korea (1,600 mt).

Actual slaughter data for the week ending Nov. 13 shared that live hog weights averaged 291 pounds (up 1 pound from the previous week) and dressed hog weights averaged 217 pounds (up one pound).

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. This past week the cash hog market did well in regards to the total volume of hogs purchased, but the cash packers could be less aggressive in next week's market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Post Turkey Day Slug Leaves Contracts Lackadaisical

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts may be trading and open for business, but the market has yet to summon any substantial effort from traders or interest from buyers in the cash markets. The contracts will likely continue to chop through the rest of the day and resume noteworthy trade next week. February lean hogs are down $2.78 at $81.475, December corn is down 5 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 898.57 points and NASDAQ is down 309.56 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is trading mixed -- higher in the nearby contracts but slightly weaker in the deferred months. With the tremendous support that the market has had in the cash market over the last month, the nearby contracts are optimistic even on the quiet nature of the day's trade. Meanwhile, the deferred months are trading softer from a lack of trader presence, as most are enjoying a long weekend. December live cattle are up $0.17 at $138.07, February live cattle are up $0.30 at $141.17 and April live cattle are down $0.07 at $143.82. The cash cattle market is quiet following Wednesday phenomenal trade. For the week, Southern live cattle traded from $138 to $140 and Nothern dressed cattle sold from $217 to $220. There hasn't been any cash cattle trade to speak of, so it's looking like the bulk of this week's business is done with.

Beef net sales of 19,300 mt for 2021 were down 24% from the previous week and 6% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,600 mt), China (4,400 mt) and Canada (2,800 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.04 ($280.15) and select down $0.96 ($262.15) with a movement of 37 loads (10.33 loads of choice, 6.14 loads of select, 10.91 loads of trim and 9.31 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are trading mixed as the market looks for support from traders but will most likely keep the day's sideways nature until normal trade resumes next week. January feeders are down $0.02 at $166.90, March feeders are down $0.05 at $167.85 and April feeders are down $0.12 at $169.67. With how strong the complex rallied on Wednesday, feeders hope to find continued support to keep the market's recent price surge as both the technical and fundamental outlook of the market is strong. The only thing that could greatly affect the market's trade in the weeks ahead is whether or not the grain market continues to aspire for higher thresholds.

LEAN HOGS:

With hopeful aspirations of heightened export demand in 2022, seeing this week's dismal export report sent the lean hog market soaring lower as the complex desperately hopes for stronger demand. December lean hogs are down $2.00 at $73.42, February lean hogs are down $3.00 at $81.32 and April lean hogs are down $2.65 at $85.40. The remaining weeks of 2021 could be tough for the hog complex as the holidays slow down production and the futures market is subject to volatile swings.

The projected lean hog index for Nov. 24 is down $0.93 at $71.63, and the actual index for Nov. 23 is down $0.59 at $72.56. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.08 with a weighted average of $54.97, ranging from $54.00 to $57.00 on 4,650 head and a five-day rolling average of $54.94. Pork cutouts total 126.14 loads with 102.23 loads of pork cuts and 23.90 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.09, $83.89.

Pork net sales of 17,500 mt for 2021 were down 30% from the previous week and 43% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (11,300 mt), Japan (2,400 mt) and South Korea (1,600 mt).

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May See Pressure From Outside Commodities

GENERAL COMMENTS:

December live cattle futures gapped open Wednesday and never looked back. Later contracts posted new highs as traders were aggressively buying to either exit short positions or to get on board to initiate positions. Buyers seemed to have received their marching orders from packers to purchase cattle at whatever price it takes. It was unexpected that cash business on the hoof would take place at $5.00 to $6.00 higher with dressed cattle upwards of $10.00 higher. It has been some time since we have seen cattle prices at these levels. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $0.47 and select up $0.80. Feeder cattle followed suit with triple-digit gains in all contracts. Strong demand for beef and higher prices are pushing feeder prices higher as demand for animals is improving.

Traders seemed to focus on the minor strength of cash and cutouts in order to push December futures higher. Spreads were unwound and new buying surfaced in the anticipation or hopes that prices may have found a bottom. Cash on the National Direct Afternoon report increased $0.11. Cutouts gained $0.06. Packers might be aggressive over the next few weeks to make sure they have sufficient hogs to kill to fill demand. Deferred contracts settled slightly lower as there was likely some profit taking into the holiday weekend. Saturday slaughter is projected at 360,000 head. Markets will close one hour earlier Friday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Very strong cash and new contract highs should follow through Friday as optimism exploded Wednesday.	1)	Fears over a new COVID variant in South Africa have hit DOW futures hard overnight. This may spill over into most other commodities Friday, resulting in lower futures. Cattle may not be immune to the pressure.
2)	Packers are trying to purchase some cattle ahead and had to pay up in order to accomplish the task. Feedlots will set their sights higher next week.	2)	Packers purchased some cattle ahead for delivery which may allow them to be a bit less aggressive next week.
3)	Traders seemed to think that packers may be more aggressive over the next few weeks as they purchase hogs to keep slaughter active through the end of the year.	3)	Selling pressure on hogs may spill over from the reaction of the commodity complex due to the fears surrounding another COVID variant.
4)	There were only minor gains in cash and cutouts, but there is a potential the market may have found a bottom. This may provide support for nearby contracts.	4)	Packers may have most of the hogs purchased to finish out the week, leaving cash steady to weaker on any business accomplished Friday.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Bulls Run Away With Thanksgiving

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the cattle market and lean hog complex have reasons to be thankful heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, but what took the cake in Wednesday's trade was undoubtedly the cash cattle market where live cattle traded $5.00 to $6.00 higher than a week ago and dressed cattle demanded $9.00 to $10.00 over last week's weighted average. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.11 with a weighted average of $55.66 on 11,694 head. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and January soybean meal is down $5.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 9.42 points and NASDAQ is up 70.08 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a day! It was just a mere three weeks ago when the market shot through the resistance at $130 in the cash market and feedlots felt like they conquered the world; little did they know that $140 would soon be in their future and that the bulls were going to run wild with this market. The last time that cattle traded for $140 was in the first week of May 2017. Throughout the day live cattle traded in the Southern Plains for $138 to $140 and Northern dressed cattle sold for $217 to $220. Of the cattle that sold for $220, some were bought with time, with delivery for the week of Dec. 6. Upon the robust trade that sparked the live cattle market's rally, the futures market soared higher as well. As bizarre as it may seem, new contract highs were achieved in all the live cattle 2022 contracts, as well in the spot December 2021 contract. December live cattle closed $2.50 higher at $137.90, February live cattle closed $1.45 higher at $140.87 and April live cattle closed $1.10 higher at $143.90. If there's one thing for certain, feedlots have much to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.47 at $279.11 and select up $0.80 at $263.47 with a movement of 129 loads (72.85 loads of choice, 36.60 loads of select, 5.05 loads of trim and 14.79 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. It's unlikely that there will be much trade come Friday, and if there is any, it will most likely be for steady prices with the week's average.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeders are mesmerized with the rally that's taking place throughout the live cattle and cash cattle markets and thankful for the positive impact that it's had on the feeder cattle market. The nearby contracts are thriving and taking any and all technical support that the market has to give, but what may be even more exciting is that the deferred 2022 contracts are trading less than $2.00 away from $180.00. With the country liquidating cows for various reasons (market hardship over the last two years, high hay prices, drought etc.) the feeding sector is realizing that finding calves to fill their pens in the years to come is going to be more difficult that it has been in years past. January feeders closed $2.55 higher at $166.92, March feeders closed $2.22 higher at $167.90 and April feeders closed $1.77 higher at $169.80. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 23: unavailable at time of publishing.

LEAN HOGS:

Packers were aggressive in Wednesday's cash hog market as the market saw over 11,500 head trade and prices even closed $0.11 higher. With there only being five short weeks left in 2021, packers want to get supplies of market-ready hogs committed, so they aren't forced into cashing the market through the holidays and potentially running the risk of paying even more for them. The futures market closed favoring the nearby contracts while the deferred contracts drifted slightly lower. December lean hogs closed $1.27 higher at $75.42, February lean hogs closed $0.97 higher at $84.25 and April lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $88.05. Helping both the cash market and the nearby futures contracts was also the pork cutout values higher close where gains were seen in the loin, butt and picnic ham cuts, and Wednesday's movement of 412.81 loads was huge! Pork cutouts total 412.81 loads with 375.14 loads of pork cuts and 37.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.06, $84.98. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 471,000 head, 13,000 head less than a week ago and 19,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 22: up $0.27, $73.15.

­­­­FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With packers aggressive in Wednesday cash market and Friday being the day after Thanksgiving, it's unlikely that they will chase the hog market come Friday.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Market Knocks on $140's Door

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been an invigorating day for the cash cattle markets as feedlots continue to push the cash cattle market higher. The cash cattle market's rally has sparked the futures complex into trading higher as well and most of the 2022 live cattle contracts are trading at new highs. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and January soybean meal is down $5.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 87.24 points and NASDAQ is down 9.41 points.

LIVE CATTLE

If this live cattle market doesn't give you something to be thankful for, I don't know what will! Whether you want to talk about the new contract highs that are being seen throughout a large portion of the 2022 live cattle contracts or the bold rally that's ignited the cash cattle market again this week, the live cattle market is a bull market. December live cattle are up $1.37 at $136.77, February live cattle are up $1.00 at $140.42 and April live cattle are up $0.67 at $143.47. With the market now flirting with the notion of trading cattle near $140 this week, in a matter of a few simple weeks, this rallying cash cattle market has made $130 look like child's play. Bids of $138 have popped up in the Southern plains, and there has been renewed interest in Nebraska where asking prices range from $138 to $140 live and $219 to $220 dressed. There has been a small handful of cattle traded in the North for $138, but feedlots seem set on getting closer to that $140 mark this week. Traders may be tempted to clock out early but that won't be the case in this week's cash cattle market, as the battle between packers and feedlots is ongoing again this week.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.67 ($279.31) and select up $1.29 ($263.96) with a movement of 68 loads (43.27 loads of choice, 16.41 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.12 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

The feeder cattle market isn't wasting any time hemming and hawing around the market, wondering if a rally is a good idea or not. Rather, the market continues to rally as the good news of continued support, and a continued rally throughout the live cattle market and cash cattle trade, has sparked a fire in the feeder cattle contracts. January feeders are up $1.70 at $166.07, March feeders are up $1.22 at $166.90 and April feeders are up $1.02 at $169.05. As feedlots have been able to push the cash cattle market higher over the last month, cow-calf producers are seeing more demand for their calves as buyers are eager to restock their pens as this rally is expected to carry into the 2022 marketplace. For the most part, the feeder cattle market will be quiet throughout the countryside for the rest of the week as sale barns will be taking time off to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday as well.

LEAN HOGS

It's a mixed day for the lean hog market as the market's fundamentals are successfully noting a stronger cash market and a higher midday pork cutout value. Meanwhile, the futures market has flopped its position (now trading higher in its nearby contracts and pulling away from the deferred market), which isn't uncommon to see given that it's a holiday week and the markets can endure some volatile swings during the holidays. December lean hogs are up $0.92 at $75.07, February lean hogs are up $0.52 at $83.77 and April lean hogs are down $0.25 at $87.70. The market will likely continue to chop sideways before the day's close and look for renewed direct come next.

The projected lean hog index for Nov. 22 is up $0.27 at $73.15 and the actual index for Nov. 19 is down $0.58 at $72.88. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.26 with a weighted average of $55.05, ranging from $53.00 to $58.00 on 7,469 head and a five-day rolling average of $54.97. Pork cutouts total 235.82 loads with 211.87 loads of pork cuts and 23.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.59, $85.51.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Strength Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The uptrend in cattle futures has picked up steam as traders see more strength to come. Feedlots continue to command higher prices for their cattle and are getting it. Being a holiday week, cash traded Tuesday at $2.00 higher than last week at $136 with some dressed sales at $4.00 higher at $214. More business is expected to be done Wednesday with some hopes that cash could even trade higher yet. Some weeks ago, packers held out for numerous weeks without paying higher prices, resulting in limited forward contracted cattle. Now, they find themselves in a position of having to purchase at ever higher prices as they have little bargaining power. Demand remains strong but cutouts declined Tuesday with choice down $0.61 and select down $1.06.

Hog futures struggled Tuesday but were able to close mixed. Front-month December continues to hold close to cash. The bright spot Tuesday was the increase of cash on the National Direct Afternoon report of $0.50. Packers likely became more aggressive due to their desire to accomplish business quickly and early this week. Cutouts fell significantly again with price down $1.33. One just has to wonder when the continued weakness will end. Hogs continue to remain available, and they need to continue to move to the market in a timely manner. Packers have not had to put forth much effort to find hogs to keep plants operating on full schedules.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The uptrend in cattle futures is increasing in intensity bringing more buyers into the market to trade the strength. New contract highs are being made.	1)	Boxed beef has been struggling lately, which could indicate overall demand may be slowing.
2)	Cash increased Tuesday with some anticipating higher cash could develop before the holiday week is finished.	2)	Higher cash trading developed early and more aggressive this week, but that may be the result of a holiday week and packers wanted to purchase what they needed. This strength may not continue in December.
3)	Hogs finally saw higher cash Tuesday. Packers may have wanted to be more aggressive before the holiday or maybe supplies are beginning to tighten.	3)	A heavy supply of hogs continues to be available to the market. This leaves packers unaggressive in their bids.
4)	Later hog contracts continued to make new highs, keeping the uptrend intact as traders gain confidence later supplies will tighten.	4)

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Sail North to Higher Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It may be a shortened holiday week, but the cattle complex isn't willing to let an opportunity pass it by and miss out on advancing the market. Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed higher and the cash cattle market pushed the cash market higher once again. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.50 with a weighted average of $55.41 on 7,227 head. December corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $7.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 194.55 points and NASDAQ is down 79.62 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As we approach the Thanksgiving holiday, feedlots undeniably have much to be thankful for. After what felt like a bloodbath in the live cattle market the last two years, the last month has reignited feedlot's hope and, as cattlemen look to 2022, their aspirations for a strong market only continue to grow as the market supports their desire. December live cattle closed $0.97 higher at $135.40, February live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $139.42 and April live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $142.80. The live cattle contracts began trading strong right from Tuesday's start and had no trouble closing higher alongside a rallying cash cattle market. At first feedlots let the bids of $136 sit for a while, but as the day grew on, some feedlots took $136 and some passed packers up on their offer. With last week's weighted average ranging from mostly $133 to $134, the $136 price is fully $2.00 higher than last week. Both Iowa and Nebraska saw dressed cattle interest at $214, but some of those cattle were bought with time ($4.00 higher than last week's weighted average). If there's one thing that we can conclude about Tuesday's market and what the industry's players revealed through the day's trade, it's that packers still need cattle, beef demand is still thriving (look at the day's boxed beef movement) and feedlots are back in the driver's seat of the market and aren't afraid to point this ship North to higher prices. The market expects to see more trade come Wednesday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, steady with a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.61 ($278.64) and select down $1.06 ($262.67) with a movement of 193 loads (118.23 loads of choice, 25.59 loads of select, 10.80 loads of trim and 38.41 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $2.00 to $4.00 higher than last week. With feedlots already seeing trade $2.00 to $4.00 higher than last week, Wednesday's market isn't going to struggle to demand those higher prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

This week's feeder cattle market hasn't been easily shaken as the market posted a flashy $1.00 to $2.00 rally amid the corn market's $0.03 to $0.04 higher close. With the momentum that's pushing the cash cattle market higher, feeders have their eyes locked onto 2022 and the optimism that looms in the new year. With beef demand exceptional, and packers running chain speeds at full throttle, the feeder cattle market continues to see excellent demand as feedlots what to have calves and feeders committed for their pens as next spring the fat cattle market is shaping up to be very rewarding, especially if feedlots have access to affordable feed. January feeders closed $2.67 higher at $164.37, March feeders closed $1.57 higher at $165.67 and April feeders closed $1.32 higher at $168.02. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 22: up $1.14, $157.43.

LEAN HOGS:

Early Tuesday morning the lean hog market wasn't met with much support but as the day traded on, traders took a harder look at the market and ultimately ended up supporting the complex before the day's end. What was more interesting than the board's mostly higher close was that cash hog prices closed higher. The cash market's $0.50 jump likely stems from the fact that packers wanted to get enough hogs committed before the week's end so that they weren't have to work the market as aggressively in the days to come leading up to the holiday. December lean hog closed $0.50 lower at $74.15, February lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $83.27 and April lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $87.95. Pork cutouts totaled 325.27 loads with 269.87 loads of pork cuts and 55.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.33, $84.92. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. Monday's slaughter was revised to 475,000 head, 5,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 19: up $0.58, $72.88.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. With packers moving the market higher on Tuesday, it's not likely that they are apt to do it again come Wednesday as hogs are readily available throughout the countryside.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Feedlots Aren't Impressed With Steady Bids

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another hot day for the cattle contracts as both the live and feeder cattle markets are rallying into Tuesday afternoon. There have been a few cash cattle bids offered but as the market looks as the steady bids, feedlots have let them sit cold as they want higher prices again this week. December corn is up 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $6.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 40.79 points and NASDAQ is down 157.04 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The cattle market is hungry for another lively rally and given how interested traders seem in supporting the movement, it's very likely that both the cash market and futures market will trade higher again by the end of the week. With the board posting a modest rally, feedlots are looking at the market from all angles and can't help but feel strong in their aspirations for higher cash trade. There have been a few bids drift into the market at $210 in western Iowa and $135 in Kansas. But at this point those bids at steady money aren't getting packers anywhere. It's undeniable that the holiday week will cut processing speeds. But as feedlots look at their showlists they aren't too concerned as they sit extremely current with the supplies of market-ready cattle. Feedlots aren't likely to take the market's offer of steady bids and it will likely take $1.00 if not $2.00 higher to move cattle this week. Trade will likely wait to develop until Wednesday. December live cattle are up $0.97 at $135.40, February live cattle are up $0.60 at $139.55 and April live cattle are up $0.65 at $142.92.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.15 ($279.10) and select up $1.36 ($265.09) with a movement of 69 loads (40.25 loads of choice, 12.50 loads of select, 5.69 loads of trim and 10.15 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures aren't being shy Tuesday as the complex sets out to rally with support being fueled from the excited live cattle market and the relatively quiet corn complex. January feeders are up $2.87 at $164.62, March feeders are up $1.80 at $165.90 and April feeders are up $1.55 at $168.25. One may feel skeptical about the rally that's igniting the feeder cattle complex as some may worry it's just a holiday fluke and the market really isn't that robust. But when you look at the market from both a technical and fundamental stance, the support is fully there for the market to soar higher. Technically speaking, the market has all the upward potential it could ever dream of as resistance is far out and traders seem interested. And, fundamentally, with the mass liquidation that's happened throughout the western U.S., feedlots and packers both know supplies of calves are going to be harder to come by in the years ahead.

LEAN HOGS:

Tuesday hasn't been as friendly to the hog market as Monday was as the complex is seeing lower waning prices all across the market -- pork cutouts are lower, cash prices are lower and the futures market is trading mostly lower. December lean hogs are down $0.67 at $73.97, February lean hogs are up $0.02 at $83.05 and April lean hogs are down $0.07 at $87.67. The regression in prices isn't shocking as the market had to absorb the fact that with it being a holiday week, packers are going to run slower processing speeds which will back up front-end supplies of hogs; this negatively affects an already sorry cash market. A dismal outlook is likely the market's fate throughout the rest of the week as the holiday pulls traders away from the board and slows production down throughout the countryside.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/22/2021 is up $0.27 at $73.15, and the actual index for 11/19/2021 is down $0.58 at $72.88. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.11 with a weighted average of $54.79, ranging from $54.00 to $55.00 on 4,367 head and a five-day rolling average of $55.14. Pork cutouts total 150.53 loads with 122.54 loads of pork cuts and 27.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.34, $85.91.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cold Storage Supportive

GENERAL COMMENTS:

After digesting the Cattle on Feed report over the weekend, traders set their sights on the strong potential for higher cash this week. Demand is solid and packers need to maintain brisk slaughter schedules. Packers did not throw out any bids yet this week, and probably will not either. The holiday-shortened week may have them stepping up to match the offers in order to accomplish business. Some offers so far have been $1.00 to $2.00 higher. Boxed beef prices were mixed Monday with choice up $0.84 and select down $0.10. The October Cold Storage report showed total beef in storage at 477.1 million pounds. This was up 9% from September, but down 5% from October 2021. This should be supportive to the market. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds are net buyers of 3,937 futures contracts bringing their net-long positions to 52,010.

Nearby hog futures were able to close higher but continue to have difficult headwinds due to lower cash and cutout weakness. Later contracts continue to move higher with June and July setting new contract highs Monday. The momentum continues to build as traders feel supplies will become tighter. The October Cold Storage report was friendly with pork bellies down 10% from September at 11.6 million pounds. This is 39% below a year ago. Total pork in inventory was 439.6 million pounds, down 4% from September and down 2% from a year ago. The National Direct Afternoon report showed cash down $0.04 while cutouts fell $3.57 due to significant losses in hams and bellies. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net buyers of 6.456 futures contracts bringing their net-long positions to 46,872.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Traders bought into cattle futures in anticipation of higher cash. Strong demand continues and packers need to satisfy that demand.	1)	It is a holiday-shortened week, which may leave packers less aggressive in the cash market.
2)	The trend is up as current demand remains strong now and likely for the foreseeable future.	2)	Beef supplies in freezers grew 9% from September to October. This indicates supply is exceeding demand.
3)	Deferred hog contracts continue to push higher in anticipation of reduced supplies moving through next year.	3)	All hog futures contracts, except December, have closed the chart gaps. This may result in some technical weakness in nearby months.
4)	Fund traders are buying hog futures for the long-term, providing the technical support needed to continue the trend higher.	4)	Both cash and cutouts continue to falter even though demand is good. Market-ready hogs are plentiful, leaving packers able to purchase hogs without difficulty.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Excel Through Day's Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts traded aggressively throughout Monday's trade as traders were willing to support the contracts and did so with ease. Heading into Tuesday's trade, the market will be watching for any packer interest that develops throughout the cash market as feedlots plan to get higher prices again this week. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.04 with a weighted average of $54.91 on 8,882 head. December corn is up 6 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17.27 points, and the NASDAQ is down 202.68 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market jumped to Monday's arrival and set out for higher trade early in the day. December live cattle closed $0.90 higher at $134.42, February live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $138.97 and April live cattle closed $0.97 higher at $142.27. The market is eager to continue to trade higher, and with the recent momentum that's been building in the cash market, traders see all the support they need to push the market higher technically. Monday's trade didn't see any interest from packers, but interest could start to develop as early as Tuesday but may be delayed until Wednesday. Southern asking prices are noted at $136 or more, and the North has yet to disclose where their initial asking prices sit at. Feedlots should have no problem getting packers to pay $1 to $2 more this week as they're seeing plenty of demand in the market and still are close to the knife in their committed supplies. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Monday's cold storage report shared that the total pounds of beef in freezers was up 9% from last month but down 5% from a year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 116,750 head, of which 75% (88,005 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 25% were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.84 ($279.25) and select down $0.10 ($263.73) with a movement of 124 loads (67.61 loads of choice, 37.26 loads of select, 8.82 loads of trim and 10.19 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1 to $2 higher. Even though packers have been buying ample supplies of cattle through the cash market, their processing speeds have been aggressive enough to demand that they keep buying more cattle.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the corn market closed $0.06 to $0.07 higher, the feeder cattle contracts kept rallying throughout the day as the market felt fully supported by the momentum that's driving the live cattle complex higher. January feeders closed $0.077 higher at $161.70, March feeders closed $0.72 higher at $164.10 and April feeders closed $0.82 higher at $166.70. Even though Monday's market didn't seem phased by the corn market's rally, the complex will need to keep an eye on the rising cost of inputs. There are some feeder cattle sales early this week but, by and large, the market won't see many sales after Tuesday as most sale barns are taking the week off for the Thanksgiving holiday. At the session's midpoint, at Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, both feeder steers and heifers were trading $2 to $5 higher. The CME feeder cattle index 11/19/2021: up $0.64, $156.29.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market rallied modestly all throughout the day, not paying any attention to the lower-trending cash and pork cutout markets. The market seemed to weather the blows of the day's weaker fundamentals, as the cold storage report was rather bullish for the hog market. Monday's Cold Storage Report shared that frozen pork supplies were down 6% from the previous month and down 2% from a year ago, and that stocks of pork bellies were down 10% from last month, but down 39% from last year. December lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $74.65, February lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $83.02 and April lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $87.75. Even though cash prices were slightly lower, they did step up and buy a considerable volume in the cash hog market (it seems silly to say 8,000 head is a significant volume, but the cash hog market is what it is), which likely means they won't be as aggressive in the market in the days ahead. It's not surprising to see this type of buying happening in the market as buyers want to get their business done for the week and take advantage of the shortened holiday week. Pork cutouts totaled 384.89 loads with 343.33 loads of pork cuts and 41.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.57, $86.25. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 21,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/18/2021: down $1.80, $73.46.

TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. The shortened holiday weeks always throw a kink into the markets as packers are fickle during these times. But with processing speeds slower this week as workers need time off for the holiday, it's unlikely packers are very aggressive in the cash market in the days leading up to the holiday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Jump Aggressively Into Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts don't seem to be too worried about it being a shortened holiday week for the markets, as they all jumped higher upon Monday's arrival. Upon seeing exactly how many cattle traded in last week's cash cattle market, feedlots continue to be encouraged as they aspire for higher prices again this week. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 229.06 points, and the NASDAQ is down 115.10 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The momentum that's fueling the live cattle market and cash cattle market to rally only seems to grow stronger and stronger. Upon seeing how many cattle were bought through the cash cattle market last week and how many of them were committed for nearby delivery, feedlots are ecstatic to see that packers are still close to the knife and will likely be willing to buy cattle at higher prices again this week as demand pushes them to do so. December live cattle are up $0.77 at $134.30, February live cattle are up $1.17 at $138.85 and April live cattle are up $0.90 at $142.20. Last week's lower-trending boxed beef market didn't come as a surprise, as the market always sees more interest in ham and turkey during the holidays, but Monday's midday prices are helping to add to the optimism that's floating throughout the marketplace. There's yet to be any cash cattle trade, but Southern asking prices are noted at $136 or better, and the North has yet to disclose their asking prices. The shortened holiday weeks always throw a kink into the market as business carries on, but it's never in a predictable or usual fashion. But with packers being as interested in the cash cattle market as they have been over the last month, it's likely that this week's trade will still be stronger and significant in its volume. This week's showlists are lighter in Nebraska/Colorado, and steady to somewhat lighter in Texas and Kansas.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 116,750 head, of which 75% (88,005 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 25% were committed for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.63 ($280.04) and select up $1.49 ($265.32) with a movement of 61 loads (32.37 loads of choice, 12.94 loads of select, 8.13 loads of trim and 7.88 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The momentum in the feeder cattle market is exceptional as the market rallies upon the support stemming from a robust cash cattle market and doesn't seem too concerned about the grain market's rally thus far as the entire feeder cattle complex rallies onward. January feeders are up $0.90 at $161.85, March feeders are up $0.80 at $164.17 and April feeders are up $0.85 at $166.72. And while the feeder cattle market may be stepping into the new week with plenty of vigor, other than a few sale barns that are having sales early this week, the market will be relatively quiet, as most sale barns take the week off in observance of the holiday.

LEAN HOGS:

Despite being worried about a weaker cash market and waning pork cutout values, the lean hog market is keeping pace with the cattle contracts Monday morning and posting a modest rally heading into the afternoon. December lean hogs are up $1.05 at $74.80, February lean hogs are up $0.60 at $83.07 and April lean hogs are up $0.55 at $87.90. All in all, the market's rally solely comes from a technical stance as, fundamentally, the holidays aren't going to bode well for the market. Worries about hogs getting backed up have been on everyone's mind as shortened holiday weeks mean slower processing speeds. But once this holiday run is done with and the new year comes around, 2022 is ready for the hog market and hopeful aspirations await the hog market there.

The projected lean hog index for 11/19/2021 is down $0.58 at $72.88, and the actual index for 11/18/2021 is down $1.81 at $73.46. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.07 with a weighted average of $54.90, ranging from $53 to $55 on 7,737 head and a five-day rolling average of $55.84. Pork cutouts total 194.07 loads with 173.81 loads of pork cuts and 20.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.32, $91.14.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Expected to Begin the Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders seem little interested in putting much premium in futures in anticipation of higher cash. They are content to move futures higher to keep in line with cash. Caution may be exercised this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday and a disruption in the usual business. However, business will be done. It will be a matter of how aggressive packers will be looking ahead to December and holiday demand. Boxed beef was higher on Friday providing some stability with choice up $2.25 and select up $0.67. This should indicate to packers the need to keep an active slaughter pace. There was little to get excited about on the Cattle of Feed report. It came in mostly in line with expectations, leaving little reason for futures to gap open one way or the other. The on feed number came in at 100% compared to the average trade estimate of 99.7%. Placement were 102% compared to the average estimate of 102.4% with Marketings at 95% compared to the estimate of 96.1%.

Hogs diverged Friday with nearby contracts showing losses while later contracts closed higher. Spread trading was active as December moves nearer the end of the contract and cash needs to converge. There is time for significant movement in December, but the current strength in cash does not bode well for much upside. Traders have turned more bullish in differed contracts as they have been moving steadily higher. Slaughter pace will be lighter this week due to the holiday keeping packers less aggressive. Cash on the National Direct Afternoon report on Friday was down $0.15 while cutouts were up $0.13.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The trend is your friend and the trend in cattle futures is up supported by higher cash the past weeks and the prospect of still higher cash to come.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report did not provide bullish numbers for traders to latch onto. This may be a bit of a disappointment to some who might liquidate positions before the holiday.
2)	The Cattle on Feed report was rather neutral, which should keep support under the market.	2)	February and April live cattle contracts have chart gaps remaining due below the market due to the strong opening last Thursday. These gaps will likely be filled.
3)	Differed hog futures are trending higher in anticipation of increasing exports due to further spread of African swing fever and marketing eventually becoming current.	3)	December hogs have little reason to push higher without the support of underlying cash. Futures will remain close to cash over the next three weeks.
4)	The volatility in cutouts may suggest the market is forming a bottom as consumers may be turning more toward pork rather than high priced beef.	4)	The holiday-shortened week may leave packers less aggressive and will purchase lower numbers. Market-ready hogs will remain plentiful.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Rally Cash Market for Another Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a phenomenal week for the live cattle market as feedlots were able to again push cash cattle prices higher and the board rallied upon seeing this fundamental strength. Heading into next week, the lean hog market is anxious as a shortened holiday week means slower processing speeds. However, it also means the market is one week closer to the new year where lean hog's optimism lies. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.15 with a weighted average of $54.95 on 5,912 head. December corn was down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal was up $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 289.52 points and NASDAQ was up 54.30 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $1.40, February live cattle up $1.60; January feeder cattle up $3.20, March feeder cattle up $4.20; December lean hogs down $2.13, February lean hogs up $1.93.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a week, what a week, WHAT A WEEK! For a while there, a few of you had grown concerned that the cash cattle market was too far gone. But once again, we are reminded how beautiful true price discovery is and how incredible and important the cash cattle market is. Upon regaining some much-needed leverage, the cash cattle market has been able to rally the market to prices not seen since June 2017 and do so while also trading a considerable volume in the cash market. The cash cattle market is too valuable to overlook and to too valuable to ever lose. It is the true heartbeat of the cattle industry.

Feedlots were able to move the cash market higher once again as packers desperately needed cattle to keep their chain speeds elevated. Throughout the Southern Plains live cattle traded from $132 to $134, mostly at $133 to $134, which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than a week ago. Northern dressed cattle traded from $207 to $211, mostly at $210, which is $3.00 higher than last week. Once the cash cattle market was able to secure another week of higher trade, the futures fully committed to trading higher and rounding out the week on a stronger note as well. December live cattle closed $0.37 higher at $133.52, February live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $137.70 and April live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $141.30. Friday's Cattle on Feed Report didn't do much of anything as placements were 2% higher than a year ago and on-feed numbers were fully steady. In the next COF report, it wouldn't be surprising to find the total on-feed number smaller as this month's marketings have been extremely aggressive and sooner or later the fact that the nation's been liquidating its cowherd will be evident in the report as well.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 69,000 head -- 11,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 677,000 head -- 22,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.25 ($278.41) and select up $0.67 ($263.83) with a movement of 103 loads (52.75 loads of choice, 28.71 loads of select, 9.82 loads of trim and 11.97 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $279.67 (down $6.61 from last week) and select cuts averaged $264.98 (down $3.55 from last week) with a total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaling 757 loads.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. With next week being a holiday week, it's hard telling how aggressive packers will be in the cash market. But with how current supplies are feedlots shouldn't struggle to sell cattle for more money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

After posting a monstrous rally ahead of Thursday's close, feeder cattle futures didn't do much of anything throughout Friday's trade even though the corn market closed lower and the live cattle contracts were able to close somewhat higher. Now with January as the spot contract for the feeder cattle market, the complex looks to 2022 with optimism and hopefulness. And even though the feeder cattle complex closed lower by Friday's end, it wasn't a bearish end to the week but rather a sign that traders had exhausted their efforts when they pushed the market $2.00 higher on Thursday. Heading into next week's trade, very few sale barns will have sales due to the Thanksgiving holiday. January feeders closed $0.45 lower at $160.92, March feeders closed $0.17 lower at $163.37 and April feeders closed $0.20 lower at $165.87. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week all throughout the state, feeder steers and heifers traded steady to $3.00 higher. Steer calves traded $4.00 higher and heifer calves traded steady to $3.00 higher. Wheat pasture is in pretty good shape, which helped boost demand for calves as it gives buyers another option as opposed to only having the feedlot to go to. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 11/18/2021: up $0.19, $155.65.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a wild week for pork cutout values, so Friday's close up $0.13 was rather refreshing. Even though pork cutouts closed somewhat higher, the lean hog complex continued to fight hesitancy in its nearby contracts; the deferred contracts rallied on throughout the day as they have throughout most of the week. December lean hogs closed $1.35 lower at $73.75, February lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $82.47 and April lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $87.35. Much of the hesitancy surrounding the nearby contracts is that, with the holidays quickly approaching, processing speeds are going to be cut back so workers can have time off and slower processing speeds don't bode well for a market that already has plenty of market-ready front-end supplies. But when looking ahead to 2022, optimism is built into the market already as traders hope greater export opportunities will surface as African swine fever continues to spread and that with Biden's proposal that would allow for faster processing in pork plants, producers may get to be current once again. Pork cutouts totaled 236.89 loads with 199.15 loads of pork cuts and 37.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.13, $89.82. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 233,000 head -- 29,000 head less than a week ago and 51,000 head less than a year ago. Thursday's hog slaughter was revised to 475,000 head -- 6,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index 11/17/2021: down $1.02, $75.26.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With next week being a shortened holiday week, it's likely packers won't be aggressive in the cash market at all.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Quiet Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a quiet day for the livestock complex as the market isn't seeing much interest develop technically or fundamentally. Before Friday's last call, the market will be waiting for the latest Cattle on Feed report, but otherwise, by and large, the week's trade is done with. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 185.40 points and NASDAQ is up 105.62 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has had another stellar week as the futures have trended higher, cash cattle prices traded $1.00 to $3.00 higher and slaughter speeds were aggressive again. Live cattle futures are trending modestly higher in the nearby, spring months of 2022; but come the summer of 2022 the contracts are veering modestly lower. With feedlots extremely current on their showlists, they aren't afraid to sit through Friday's trade and hold cattle over until next week. It's unlikely next week's trade will be as vast as buyers don't want to be burdened over the holiday week; but come the following week, trade will resume as normal. December live cattle are up $0.32 at $133.47, February live cattle are up $0.27 at $137.52 and April live cattle are up $0.25 at $141.12. The cash cattle market sits idle without any bids renewed. It's likely trade is essentially done and, if any trade does develop, it will most likely be for steady prices with the week's trend. Throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle traded for $207 to $211, which is mostly $3.00 higher than last week. Southern live cattle traded for $132 to $134, which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week. As the market makes its way into the afternoon, cattlemen will be watching for the Cattle on Feed report, which will be released at 2 p.m. CST.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.90 ($278.06) and select up $1.15 ($264.31) with a movement of 49 loads (27.77 loads of choice, 13.35 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.33 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

After posting a monstrous rally Thursday afternoon, feeder cattle futures are mostly steady as the contracts look for reassurance. It's appreciated, from feeders' perspective, that the corn market is lower and the nearby live cattle futures are higher -- but it's unlikely the market will do anything drastic ahead of the weekend as traders made their bold move Thursday. January feeders are up $0.02 at $161.40, March feeders are up $0.07 at $163.62 and April feeders are up $0.05 at $166.12. Feeders see the April 2022 live cattle contract is trading above $140.00 (at $141.15 to be precise) and feel extremely encouraged about the year to come as the fat cattle market stands an excellent chance at keeping up with its current rally. Next week's trade will be dismal throughout the countryside as it is Thanksgiving week and buyers don't want to be on the road chasing sale barns and feedlots don't want to have to receive and work the calves once they're purchased. The feeder cattle market will be lightly tested until the Thanksgiving holiday has passed.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are facing some modest pressure in nearby contracts, but deferred contracts are continuing to rally. December lean hogs are down $0.45 at $74.65, February lean hogs are down $0.50 at $82.80 and April lean hogs are down $0.07 at $87.52. It's unlikely the market will do much more than continue to chop modestly sideways ahead of the close as traders know the week's business is mostly done with. Fundamentally next week is problematic for the hog sector as the Thanksgiving holiday obviously means a lighter processing schedule and, with there already being plenty of hogs for packers to pick from, added inventory will only pressure the cash market more.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/17/2021 is down $1.02 at $75.26, and the actual index for 11/16/2021 is down $0.05 at $76.28. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.16 with a weighted average of $54.97, ranging from $54.00 to $56.74 on 3,880 head and a five-day rolling average of $56.49. Pork cutout values are unavailable due to technical issues at the USDA.