GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex continues to trade mixed as each market battles mixed signals. With Thursday being Veteran's Day, exports will be released on Friday. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 100.18 points and NASDAQ is up 103.56 points.
**Happy Veterans Day to all veterans! Without the sacrifices you made to protect this great nation our lives would look completely different. I thank you for your time and I thank you for your selflessness. You are the true-backbone of America.**
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures are chopping sideways, trading above both the 100-day moving average ($131.24) and the 40-day moving average ($129.45) but are needing fruitful support from fundamentals to encourage higher trade. December live cattle are down $0.12 at $131.87, February live cattle are down $0.40 at $136.42 and April live cattle are down $0.20 at $140.12. Traders are realizing they have all the upward potential they could wish for, but traders are skeptical of getting too bullish as they know the dynamics in the cattle market aren't for the weak-hearted. Thankfully the market has once again seen higher cash cattle trade this week and packers have renewed bids in all three of the major feeding states (Kansas, Nebraska and Texas). On Wednesday live cattle traded for $131 to $132, mostly $3.00 higher than last week, and dressed cattle traded for $205 to $207, which is $4.00 higher than last week. Feedlots are hoping to see another large volume of cattle trade this week as they want to keep front-end supplies as current as possible.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.29 ($284.23) and select up $0.33 ($266.95) with a movement of 70 loads (44.81 loads of choice, 12.33 loads of select, 3.88 loads of trim and 9.21 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Following the wild ride the corn market took Wednesday, the complex's rally has subsided for the time being, which is allowing for the feeder cattle contracts to regain some of what they gave up Wednesday. November feeders are up $0.62 at $157.27, January feeders are up $0.75 at $158.80 and March feeders are up $0.90 at $160.47. The further you look into 2022, the better the market is. One could argue there's too much "optimism" built into the 2022 market, but with the nation's cowherd retracting and beef demand holding a strong foot in the market, I tend to believe 2022 will indeed bring greater profitability at the pace the market's turning right now. One of the biggest wild cards for the feeder cattle market moving forward is obviously the price of inputs, but also processing speeds. If packers keep clipping through these fat cattle at a swift pace, then feedlots sit in a fine position to keep the cash market strong, which could, in return, rally feeder cattle prices.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog market has a lot of balls up in the air right now, and with how quick things can change into today's dynamic market, it's hard to tell which ball is going to hit the ground first. After hearing the Biden administration is considering a proposal that would allow for some processing plants to run faster chain speeds, the market rallied through Wednesday's close and is demanding attention again come Thursday. The bearish news that continues to penetrate the lean hog market is that of a wimpy cash market and pork cutouts that are extremely volatile. The cash hog market hasn't even seen 2,000 head trade Thursday. When packers only bought 5,000 head in Wednesday's market it led us to believe Thursday's trade would be scant, but less than 2,000 head by midday is extreme. With Thursday being Veterans Day, exports will be released Friday morning. December lean hogs are up $0.35 at $76.05, February lean hogs are up $0.37 at $79.70 and April lean hogs are up $0.20 at $84.35.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/10/2021 is down $0.77 at $77.95, and the actual index for 11/9/2021 is down $0.51 at $78.72. Hog prices are unavailable to due confidentiality reasons; however, we can see that only 1,050 head have traded Thursday morning and the five-day rolling average currently sits at $58.41. Pork cutouts total 212.73 loads with 193.74 loads of pork cuts and 19.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.46, $97.03.
No comments:
Post a Comment