As Monday welcomes a new week, the livestock contracts are all battling their own unique set of challenges. The live cattle complex is eager to push the cash cattle market higher and attempt to trade cash cattle at $130. The feeder cattle contracts are juggling the exciting news of the live cattle market's momentum all while wading through ample supplies of calves and a rallying corn market. The lean hog market is holding onto last week's rally despite slower chain speeds and questionable demand. December corn is up 11 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 45.07 points and NASDAQ is up 57.73 points.
LIVE CATTLE
The live cattle contracts have broken into Monday's trade eager to reignite the momentum that helped push the market last week. December live cattle are up $0.10, at $129.37, February live cattle are up $0.47, at $134.70 and April live cattle are up $0.22 at $137.45. With the exciting news of last week's cash cattle trade (read below) the market is continuing to be fueled by the fact that packers are short bought, beef demand is gaining momentum and that leverage is gravitating back to the feedlots. Looking to this week's cash cattle market, feedlots stand the chance to demand another $2 to $3 higher. New showlists appear to be somewhat lower in Nebraska and Colorado, and lower in Kansas and Texas.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 103,877 head. Of that, 89% (92,797 head) were purchased for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 11% (11,080 head) were purchased for the deferred delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice is up $0.43 ($286.15) and select down $0.45 ($262.92) with a movement of 30 loads (14.91 loads of choice, 5.92 loads of select, 3.96 loads of trim and 5.28 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
What makes Monday feel more like a Monday in feeder cattle terms than seeing corn trade $0.12 higher to start the week? While it's aggravating to see the feeder cattle contracts trade lower while momentum builds in the live cattle complex, feeders must monitor the cost of inputs carefully even though they like to relish in the live cattle market's success.
Feeder cattle traded $1.00 to $2.00 higher throughout the countryside last week, but calves traded mixed. In the western half of the U.S. where calves are easy to come by, buyers had more than enough options to pick from, and supply outweighed demand in some markets. November feeders are down $0.35, at $156.22, January feeders are down $1.15, at $155.02, and March feeders are down $1.07 at $156.32. If the corn market continues to trade confidently, feeders will most likely trade sideways to somewhat lower.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog contracts are keeping with last week's late rally even though long term fundamental support is limited. December lean hogs are up $0.27, at $76.32, February lean hogs are up $0.17, at $78.85, and April lean hogs are up $0.17 at $82.22. Cash prices may be slightly higher, but erratic buying early in the week won't outpace the heightened pressure of the slower mandated processing speeds and alleviate the buildup of front-end supplies. Pork cutouts are higher, but producers should seek the day's closing value before they grow too excited.
The projected lean hog index for Oct. 29, 2021 is down $0.73, at $79.16, and the actual index for Oct. 28, 2021 is down $0.81, at $79.89. Hog prices on the National Direct Morning Hog Report are higher, up $0.04 with a weighted average of $60.82, ranging from $60 to $62.50 on 4,985 head and a five-day rolling average of $62.03. Pork cutouts total 162.77 loads with 141.70 loads of pork cuts and 21.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.96, at $98.48.
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