GENERAL COMMENTS:
As the world absorbs changes and developments of all sorts, the markets are left to do one thing -- trade. Sometimes that trade wavers, sometimes that trade reacts and sometimes that trade carries on strong, without missing a beat. The war between Russia and Ukraine has undeniably disturbed our markets, but for how long and to what degree remain the unanswered questions. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.35 with a weighted average of $87.78 on 3,153 head. May corn is down 34 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $12.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 834.92 points and NASDAQ is up 221.04 points.
From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle down $3.97, April live cattle down $3.95; March feeder cattle down $5.40, April feeder cattle down $6.10; April lean hogs down $5.73, June lean hogs down $4.75.
LIVE CATTLE:
Whether it's a fire, a cyberattack, a global pandemic or the news of war, all these things have one thing in common -- they negatively affect the live cattle market. It's a good thing cattlemen are relentless souls because more often than not things negatively affect their market and there's very few things that rally their market in the same way. This week leaves us with more unanswered questions than answered questions, but among the top of the list is how will this affect the cash cattle market's ability to rally this spring? We know market fundamentals haven't changed. Americans still want beef and we are operating with a small cowherd. But will the futures market reflect those fundamental realities? Or will the technical side of the market be shorted by speculators who fear any sort of a position and ultimately refuse to dabble in the market for any period of time.
April live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $141.92, June live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $138.30 and August live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $137.42. This week's business ranged from $138 to mostly $142 in the South, fully steady with last week. Northern trade sold for $225 to $229, mostly $227, $1 higher than last week, but the majority of dressed deals were set for delivery the week of March 7.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 50,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.97 ($258.27) and select up $0.86 ($255.41) with a choice/select spread of $2.86, and with a movement of 104 loads (57.81 loads of choice, 14.61 loads of select, 23.11 loads of trim and 8.71 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $260.82 (down $9.06 from last week) and select cuts averaged $258.88 (down $7.15 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 686 loads.
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers have cattle bought with time for the weeks ahead which bodes negatively for the market. But as we saw with Thursday's carcass data, showlists are current and supplies of market-ready cattle are tight, which should help drive prices higher.
FEEDER CATTLE:
From the pressures of the grain complex to the undeniable truth that when you're a thinly traded market new announcements like Thursday's can shatter your position faster than the speed of light. Nevertheless, the feeder cattle complex had a tough week where pressure mounted from every angle and the live cattle complex lent nearly no support. After a nosedive of a close lower on Thursday, Friday's market aimed to regain some position, but the complex still closed substantially lower than both the 40- and 100-day moving averages. March feeders closed $0.92 higher at $160.02, April feeders closed $0.95 higher at $164.75 and May feeders closed $0.87 higher at $170.60. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, through the entire state, feeder steers and heifers traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower, except heifers weighing 600 to 695 pounds traded $3.00 to $6.00 higher. Stocker steers and steer calves trended $2.00 to $4.00 softer. Stocker heifers and heifer calves traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower. The market noted mixed demand for feeder cattle but continues to see better interest for stockers and calves. Slaughter cows traded $3.00 to $6.00 higher and bulls traded unevenly steady. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 2/24/2022: down $1.24, $160.58.
LEAN HOGS:
Even the lean hog's untouchable luster came to a halt this week as the market topped Wednesday and closed lower the rest of the week. Cash prices closed slightly lower Friday and the pork cutout value waned as well. It's hard telling if the market's pause is a long-term top, or just an opportunity to breath and catch its air as fundamentally the market's situation hasn't changed. April lean hogs closed $1.85 lower at $103.67, June lean hogs closed $2.22 lower at $113.87 and July lean hogs closed $2.52 lower at $113.55. It's tough telling what the futures market will do next week as traders have a tendency to react to any and all headlines. But the lean hogs fundamental outlook remains the same -- demand domestically is strong and supplies of hogs are thin. Pork cutouts total 256.72 loads wit 210.01 loads of pork cuts and 46.72 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.81, $113.32. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 477,000 head -- 12,000 head more than week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 131,000 head - 31,000 head less than a week ago and 45,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 2/24/2022: not available at this time.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Packers haven't been aggressive in Monday's market for some time and they'll likely sit back and wait until Tuesday or Wednesday until they buy a considerable number of hogs.
No comments:
Post a Comment