GENERAL COMMENTS:
In times like these you'd hope the markets would take a defensive role against the world's chaos and protect their price points without ceasing. But as uncertainly spreads like wildfire, traders sell all they can and the markets snowball. May corn is up 35 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $10.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 320.00 points and NASDAQ is down 22.22 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
As the market sits ripe for a cash cattle rally, all hell has broken loose across the globe. In years past, the cash cattle market was able to rally solely on the market's fundamentals. But as the market has become more and more thinly traded, the cash cattle market now needs the support of the futures market in order to summon any substantial cash rally. With new showlists appearing to be somewhat lower in Nebraska/Colorado and lower in Kansas and Texas -- feedlots are eager to ask for higher cash prices. But they don't know if they'll be able to get much out of packers as they'll undoubtedly use the world's turmoil to their advantage. April live cattle are down $1.32 at $140.57, June live cattle are down $1.52 at $136.80 and August live cattle are down $1.25 at $136.17.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 68,349 head. Of that 66% (45,392 head) were committed for nearby delivery, while the remaining 34% (22,957 head) were committed for deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.07 ($258.34) and select down $0.13 ($255.28) with a movement of 40 loads (21.15 loads of choice, 9.65 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.21 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
In college, kids will often play drinking games (beer pong, king's cup, dice, etc.) as a way to pass time as they celebrate their school pride or try drown out the memory of how horribly they did on their recent chemistry exam. Well, if the feeder cattle market did the same, it would be well past drunk and the noon hour has yet to even ring. Russia sends fierce rocket attack on Ukraine (drink). Corn flirts with $7.00 per bushel (drink). The live cattle market only sold 68,349 head in last week's cash market (drink). And remember it's only Monday!
The feeder cattle complex is a prime example of why we need to keep our wits about us amid external market pressure -- even though it may be easier to drink our sorrows away. While the futures market chatters in terror with so much unknown in our world thanks to Putin, avoiding any and all sort of emotional reactions is vital to the market's long-term success. March feeders are down $3.50 at $156.52, April feeders are down $4.50 at $160.25 and May feeders are down $4.35 at $166.25. It's likely that calves are sought aggressively again this week as the feeder cattle market looks to capitalize on the opportunity that this fall has to offer.
LEAN HOGS:
As the rest of the marketplace tremors in the fear of the unknown, the lean hog complex is keeping a calm and cool expression as it's market fundamentals haven't changed -- supplies of market-ready hogs are thin and demand is strong (score). April lean hogs are up $0.50 at $104.17, June lean hogs are up $0.95 at $114.82 and July lean hogs are up $0.47 at $114.02. In order for the futures market to keep its upward trajectory, the market will need to continue to see support from pork cuts. The $7.60 jump Monday morning could be overdone as it's the morning report, so keep close tabs on the afternoon data.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 2/25/2022 is up $0.69 at $99.09, and the actual index for 2/24/2022 is up $0.36 at $98.40.
Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.88 with weighing average of $88.37, ranging from $87.00 to $96.00 on 3,393 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.60. Pork cutouts total 153.90 loads with 131.31 loads of pork cuts and 22.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout out values: up $7.60, $120.92.
No comments:
Post a Comment