Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feed Woes Weigh on Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Losses in the livestock markets Thursday were led by lean hog futures, which dropped by more than $3 per cwt in heavy profit-taking trade volume after the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. On the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, negotiated prices were down $2.61 to a weighted average price of $102.32 on 8,455 head, and the 5-day rolling average was $104.72 per cwt. Cash cattle are seeing a light trade developing in parts of the North at $222 to $225, which is $1 to $4 higher than last week. The high end of these sales is by a regional and set for delivery the week of April 18; the $222 is set for delivery the week of April 11. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $140 in the South and $225-plus in the North. May corn moved up 10 3/4 cents per bushel to $7.48 3/4 and May soybean meal was down $5.60 per ton to $467.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 474 points and the NASDAQ is down 185 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Losses in the live cattle futures market Thursday seem positively calm in comparison to the flailing prices of other ag markets. The sturdy strength of seasonally rising beef prices may help to underpin the stability of live cattle prices. The April contract closed $0.80 lower at $139.375, the June closed $0.875 lower at $137.125, and the August closed $0.475 lower at $138.075. Cash deals picked up momentum from Wednesday into Thursday, with Northern dressed business being marked at $222 to $225, which is $1 to $4 higher than last week's weighted averages. Global demand in the near term and optimistic prospects for domestic demand this spring and summer help keep beef prices on track, and packers are running at a substantial pace this week. Thursday's slaughter was seen at 121,000 head, which is 1,000 head fewer than a week ago but 6,000 more than a year ago. Boxed beef prices were significantly higher: choice up $1.35 ($268.39) and select up $4.88 ($262.34) with a movement of 96 loads (66.82 loads of choice, 9.69 loads of select, 4.19 loads of trim and 14.86 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1 to $4 higher than last week. Packers have demonstrated their willingness to pay up for near-term supply, especially for higher-grading animals.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feed grains (corn) have lost out to oilseeds (soybeans) in the U.S. farmer's planting intentions for spring 2022, according to USDA's annual Prospective Plantings report released Thursday morning, which sent feed prices skyrocketing and feeder cattle falling in response. The April futures contract closed down $2.275 at $161.40, the May contract closed down $2.35 at $166.55, and farther out, the October contract for the babies on the ground today closed down $2.225 at $181.825. The March feeder cattle contract will go off the board at $155.90, compared to the CME Feeder Cattle Index, which has been moving sideways above $155 for the past week or so ($155.41 on 3/29). Perhaps even more concerning to cattle producers in certain regions, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed a 0.6 percentage point expansion of D3 Extreme drought, now at 17.14% of the continental United States, including a now-larger patch in central Nebraska. Recent precipitation across the continent hasn't been enough to seriously improve the uncertain prospects for pasture and range this spring, either for feeding market animals or to support the breeding herd. But depending on where you are, some sale barns are still seeing good or very good demand (and steady prices) for the calves and backgrounded cattle being brought in, even for grass-type cattle.

LEAN HOGS:

It's surely no coincidence that the steepest Thursday losses in lean hog futures took place in the same contract that experienced the heaviest trading volume: the June contract, which may previously have attracted bullish interest from traders who could now cash out those profits after the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was released. The nearby April lean hog futures contract closed Thursday down $2.775 at $101.75; the May closed down $3.425 at $113.575; and the June closed down $3.60 at $120.625. Despite the volatility of this one trading session, the market is generally supported by strong pork prices this week. Thursday's afternoon pork cut-out report showed the overall carcass value up $4.00 to $107.72, led by volatile ham prices up $19.88. There were 358.50 total loads (328.94 loads of cuts and 29.57 loads of trim). Meanwhile, there are the longer-term bullish supply implications of a diminishing breeding herd, especially when high feed prices through the foreseeable future could pressure the herd even further. The CME Lean Hog Index for 3/29: up $0.10, $103.66, and the projected Index for 3/30 is down $0.53, $103.13.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Market hogs over 180 pounds were shown to be 4% fewer than last year at this time, but packers may have already done most of the work they need to get supplies in place for the weekend.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lean Hogs Attract Hefty Trading Volume

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The annual release of Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks on the last day of March has sent feed grains prices skyrocketing, with nearby corn futures up 22 cents to $7.60 per bushel. So, although feeder cattle futures trade spent most of Thursday morning in lightly lower territory, heavy selling has now dropped the market by $2 or more. Lean hogs, meanwhile, have tested a wide range of prices amid a heavy volume of futures trade after Wednesday afternoon's Hogs and Pigs report showed lower breeding herd inventories amid these high feed costs. May corn is up 18 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.70 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 165 points and NASDAQ is down 72 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures trade is relatively quiet Thursday morning compared to all the hullabaloo going on in other ag markets. The April futures contract is down $0.45 at $139.725, the June contract is down $0.725 at $137.275, and the August contract is down $0.30 at $138.25. The weekly export sales report showed beef sales down 17% for the week, but China is still buying despite their COVID lockdowns. In the countryside, cash cattle business has a steady or willing tone this week, with Wednesday's first trades even with last week's weighted average, then some negotiated purchases for over 80% choice steers on Thursday hitting a weighted average of $142.44, and some dressed business at $222, or $1 higher than last week. Thursday's cattle slaughter is projected at 125,000 head, which is 1,000 more than week-ago numbers and 11,000 more than year-ago numbers.

Boxed beef prices are significantly higher: choice up $2.02 Thursday morning ($269.06) and select up $4.61 ($262.07) with a movement of 43 total loads (27.32 loads of choice, 6.63 loads of select, 0 loads of trim, and 8.71 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Nearby corn futures now trading above $7.60 are obviously going to pressure feedlot profitability, but feeder cattle futures down by triple digits in the middle of Thursday's trading session still leave this market above its weekly low and within an upward trend on the chart. The March feeder cattle contract is down $0.125 at $155.85, the April is down $2.175 at $161.50, and the May is down $2.05 at $166.85. Note that the March contract will have to converge with the CME Feeder Cattle Index, which was $155.41 on 3/29 and has been staying sideways all week with relatively low volumes at the sale barns. Thinking longer-term, traders will notice new-crop December corn futures gaining even faster than the nearby contracts, with less than 90 million acres expected to be planted in the U.S. in 2022. This puts new crop corn at $6.90 and reminds livestock traders that high feed prices are not going to be a short-term problem; they're something that's likely to challenge profitability well into 2023.

LEAN HOGS:

Futures trading activity has been bustling all morning in the lean hog contracts after Wednesday afternoon's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report gave the market many surprises to process. The general interpretation seems to be bearish for nearby contracts and bullish for deferred contracts in light of the diminishing size of the U.S. breeding herd that will supply market hogs in late 2022 and beyond. The April lean hog futures contract is down $1.775 at $102.75, the May is down $2.325 at $114.675, and the June is down $2.625 at $121.60. Active spread trading has pulled the 2023 contracts closer to the rollicking 2022 prices, and during the volatility of the morning, July lean hogs hit a fresh contract high of $126.95, although they've since pulled back into losses. Export sales were up 19% from the previous week, with reliable Mexico as a notable buyer of U.S. pork. Thursday's hog slaughter is projected at 480,000 head, which is 2,000 more than week-ago numbers but down 8,000 from a year ago.

The CME Lean Hog Index from 3/29 was 103.66 (up $0.10) and the projected index for 3/30 is 103.13 (down $0.53). Pork cutouts Thursday morning total 174.71 loads with 154.25 loads of pork cuts and 20.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.40, to $106.12.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Expected Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were uncertain of what to do as Friday's report is history and there was some indication of steady cash with last week. Cash trading showed some light activity taking place at steady cash. Generally, once some trading takes place, it sets the stage for the rest of the week. Any increase from steady prices would certainly be a victory. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $2.04 and select up $2.62. One would think packers would need to step up a little to keep full slaughter schedules due to strong demand and higher boxed beef. Weekly export sales may provide some market direction.

Hog traders were focused on the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be released at the end of Wednesday. This prompted spread trading and positioning ahead of the report. The report was bullish, which should turn the market higher Thursday. All hogs and pigs were down 2% from March 1, 2021, and slightly below expectations of 98.8%. Hogs kept for breeding were 98%, down 2% from a year earlier with expectations of 100.1%. Marketings were 98% of a year ago, down slightly from expectations of 98.7%. This is a bullish report and should result in higher trade today keeping the uptrend intact. The question is whether some of this report has already been factored in. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.00. Cutouts slipped further with a decline of $0.22. If weekly export sales or good along with this report, the market should see some strength. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 62,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Even if cash cattle trade steady this week, it should keep the uptrend intact due to steady demand.	1)	Initial light cash trade may set the stage for the rest of the week indicating steady cash at best, limiting upside potential.
2)	The recent trend is up with higher cattle numbers on Friday's report already factored in. Traders may have confidence to buy and hold for the near term.	2)	If the Quarterly Grain Stocks report is bullish Thursday, higher grain prices could increase the desire of feedlots to move cattle at steady or even lower prices.
3)	The Hogs and Pigs report was bullish and could push futures to new highs.	3)	Hog futures may have much of this report already factored in which may move the market in a sideways pattern in the near term.
4)	The report indicates hogs ready for marketing and the number of breeding animals is contracting more than anticipated. This should support price.	4)	Chart gaps remain about $4.00 under the current market, which may need to be filled before the uptrend can resume.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lean Hogs Prepped for Report Reaction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Lean hog futures contracts moved mostly lower during Wednesday's futures trade, but that was before the quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs report revealed bullish numbers of lower inventories than pre-report estimates suggested. The reaction Thursday could be interesting, with fresh contract highs easily within reach. On the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, negotiated prices were up $1 to a weighted average price of $104.93 on 13,143 head, and the 5-day rolling average was $105.58 per cwt. Cash cattle business Wednesday matched the neutral tone of the mixed futures trade. A light live trade has been reported in the South at $138, fully steady with the bulk of last week's business. Some asking prices remain firm around $140 to $142 in the South and $224 to $226 in the North. May corn moved up 11 3/4 cents per bushel to $7.38, and May soybean meal was up $7.10 per ton to $473.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 65 points, and the NASDAQ is down 168 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle traders felt most comfortable staying within previously tested price ranges Wednesday, and this included both futures and cash traders. The April contract closed $0.725 lower at $140.175, the June closed $0.475 lower at $138, and the August closed $0.025 higher at $138.55. Cash deals that were made Wednesday for live cattle in Texas, Kansas and Nebraska were fully steady with last week's weighted average price: $138 per cwt (or $221 on a dressed basis in Nebraska). More aggressive asking prices are still out there to be tested on Thursday, and packers may have the appetite to meet them in the near term. A bid of $225 for higher-quality animals in Iowa reveals some sense of that willingness. Longer-term, more abundant fed cattle supplies may start crowding the market in May onward, as suggested by last week's Cattle on Feed numbers. 

Wednesday's slaughter was seen at a hefty 125,000 head, which is 1,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 more than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices were higher: choice up $2.04 ($266.54) and select up $2.62 ($257.46) with a movement of 85 loads (58.87 loads of choice, 7.4 loads of select, 2.63 loads of trim and 15.66 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Thursday's cash trade is most likely to follow in line with Wednesday's light trade, which was fully steady with last week, but if there is a bias in one direction or another, it may lean toward the bullish needs of packers running at a stiff pace this week and likely through the next month.

FEEDER CATTLE:

On Wednesday, feeder cattle futures gave back some of their big Tuesday gains, but the charts could still be characterized as being in an upward trend of recovery. March feeder cattle futures closed down $0.725 at $155.975. This contract will converge at the end of the month with the CME Feeder Cattle Index (up $0.12 to $155.41 on 3/29). Meanwhile, the April futures contract closed down $0.675 at $163.675, and the May contract closed down $0.50 at $168.90. With average cash corn prices back above $7 per bushel, the feeder cattle market remains vulnerable to profitability hits from the volatile swings that occur in global feed grains prices from day to day amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Black Sea region. The quarterly Grain Stocks report due out Thursday morning will likely also inject another dose of volatility to feed prices.

LEAN HOGS:

USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, released Wednesday afternoon after the futures market closed, may confirm lean hogs' recent bullish tilt. The overall U.S. inventory is down 3% since last quarter and down 2% since last year. Prior to the report, traders were expecting to see the quarterly pig crop move higher by 1.3%, but instead it fell by 1%. Traders were expecting Jun-Aug farrowing intentions to be higher than last year by 0.5%, but instead it's looking like they will be smaller by 6%. Across the calendar, really, all the inventory numbers of both market-weight hogs and breeding animals seem to be contracting -- and faster than traders were expecting to see -- which means tight supply issues could continue to add a bullish tone to this market for the foreseeable future. Summer futures contracts are easily within reach of hitting some fresh contract highs when trade resumes Thursday morning. The nearby April lean hog futures contract closed Wednesday down $1.525 at $104.525, the May closed down $1.775 at $117, and the June closed down $0.400 at $124.225. Wholesale pork prices dropped slightly Wednesday, with the afternoon pork cut-out report showing the overall carcass value down $0.22 to $103.72. There were 242.90 total loads (214.80 loads of cuts and 28.10 loads of trim). The CME Lean Hog Index for 3/28: up $0.63, $103.56, and the projected Index for 3/29 is up $0.10, $103.66.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. Inventory tightness adds urgency to packers' bids, even in the near term, with market hogs over 180 pounds shown to be 4% fewer than last year at this time.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Eager Trading Volume for Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Despite Russia's pledge to reduce hostilities near Kyiv in Ukraine, it turns out they're still shelling the country, and the global feed grains market is still in trouble without Black Sea exports to rely on. The classic corn-up/feeder-cattle-down trading pattern is therefore reversing some of the livestock sector's optimism from Tuesday. Nearby lean hog contracts are lower Wednesday morning in anticipation of Wednesday afternoon's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which may show a larger year-over-year pig crop coming to the market. May corn is up 16 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $9.90 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 62 points and NASDAQ is down 94 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures trade has spent Wednesday morning consistently lower, with a relatively high volume of trading activity before the afternoon even arrives. The April futures contract is down $0.725 at $140.175, the June contract is down $0.475 at $138.00, and the August contract is unchanged at $138.525. Longer-term, however, the trends on these charts continue to point upward, although days like today push the April chart, for instance, farther away from its February high of $148.70. Wednesday's cattle slaughter is projected at 124,000 head, which is 1,000 fewer than week-ago numbers but 6,000 more than year-ago numbers. At midday, the cash cattle market saw a light live trade in parts of the South at $138, fully steady with the bulk of last week's business. So far, the North remains quiet. Some asking prices remain firm around $140 to $142 in the South and $223 to $224 in the North.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction today listed a total of 2,526 head (Texas 1,401 head; Nebraska 720 head; Iowa 150 head; California 135 head; Kansas 120 head), of which none actually sold as they did not meet the reserve prices, that ranged from $139 to $144. Opening prices ranged from $137 to $138, high bids ranged from $137 to $138.50.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.80 Wednesday morning ($267.30) and select up $2.09 ($256.93) with a movement of 47 total loads (35.96 loads of choice, 4.27 loads of select, 0 loads of trim, and 6.97 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Geopolitics giveth and geopolitics taketh away this week, with the outside markets sending feeder cattle futures up $4 one day and back down $1 the next. The March feeder cattle contract is down $0.60 at $156.10, the April is down $0.875 at $163.475, and the May is down $0.825 at $168.575. Sometimes, we might wonder why there's an independent futures contract for feeder cattle at all, if it's only ever going to do the opposite of whatever corn is doing on any given day. However, feeder cattle have held on to their Tuesday gains better than corn has persisted with its drop. Nearby corn futures have, at certain points during the trading session, totally recovered all of Tuesday's losses and are once again above $7.40 per bushel. But the April and May feeder cattle contracts have only given back about half of Tuesday's volatile gains and could even be said to showing upward trends on their charts.

LEAN HOGS:

Spread trading in lean hog futures contracts Wednesday morning may be an indication of traders' expectations for the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which will be released by the USDA this afternoon. Nearby contracts are lower in anticipation of seeing a larger Dec-Feb pig crop, while deferred contracts may be higher in anticipation seeing reduced farrowing intentions and smaller breeding herd size. The April lean hog futures contract is down $1.15 at $104.90, the May is down $0.425 at $118.35, and the June is up $0.55 at $125.175. Ultimately, once the inventory numbers are digested by the market, attention may turn once again to the spring and summer global demand outlook, and another push toward fresh contract highs could be in store as the week presses on. Wednesday's hog slaughter is projected at 478,000 head, which is right in line with week-ago numbers but down 17,000 from a year ago.

The CME Lean Hog Index from 3/28 was 103.56 (up $0.63) and the projected index for 3/29 is 103.66 (up $0.10). Pork cutouts Wednesday morning total 150.86 loads with 133.15 loads of pork cuts and 17.7 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.96, to $102.98.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Looms

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle pushed higher Tuesday partially due to the market already having the bearish Cattle on Feed report factored in and partially due to substantially declining grain futures. It seems the conflict in Ukraine might be turning toward a cease fire and some sort of settlement, which could allow Ukrainian farmers to plant crops. Ukraine supplies about 18% of global exports of corn, which is a big deal. They are critical in the potential price of corn and other agricultural products. But the here and now is whether feedlots will be able to hold out for higher cash prices. Offers were revealed Tuesday but bids were nowhere to be found. It is possible cash will not trade Wednesday depending on the determination of both sides. Boxed beef was mixed Tuesday with choice up $0.63 and select down $1.48. Feeder cattle were very strong Tuesday but may temper a bit Wednesday due to the overnight rebound of corn futures.

Hog futures were bearish right from the start Tuesday gapping lower on the open. However, the gap was closed even though futures closed lower across the board. Lower cash and lower cutouts did not provide the support needed to regain losses. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.96. Cutouts fell $3.47 adding to the bearishness. However, even with that, the market did regain a good portion of the early losses. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report Wednesday afternoon with expectations for all hogs and pigs at 98.8% of last year. Kept for breeding is estimated at 100.1% with marketings at 98.7%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle complex seems to have the bearish implications of the Cattle on Feed report factored in. Futures may trend sideways to higher.	1)	More cattle will be available for marketing over time. Both domestic and international demand needs to remain strong, or prices will struggle.
2)	Domestic demand remains strong with export demand above year earlier levels. This should keep beef moving keeping supply from building up.	2)	High feed and other input costs will keep the desire of feedlots to move market-ready cattle as quickly as possible.
3)	The decline Tuesday did not change the uptrend of hog futures. The rejection of the lows Tuesday was positive.	3)	Packers have not been aggressive so far this week. They may be hoping that starting out less aggressively may rattle produces into moving hogs rather than holding for better prices.
4)	A friendly Hogs and Pigs report could push futures to resume the uptrend and new highs.	4)	A bearish hog and pig report could trigger liquidation and a larger price retracement.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Gain, Hogs Slip Amid Geopolitical Shifts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures trading volume picked up through Tuesday afternoon as traders seemed to note that grains' volatile losses weren't just a flash in the pan. However, in the days to come, all these markets will still have to recognize that the Black Sea ports are still facing conflict, and scarce spring planting inputs mean global feed grains' high prices are no short-term problem. For now, though, Tuesday's gains have allowed nearby live cattle futures to regain $140 per cwt, and spring feeder cattle contracts displayed even more optimism with gains of $3 to $4 per cwt. As the week moves on, hog futures will also need to incorporate information from the upcoming Hogs and Pigs report Wednesday. On the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, negotiated prices were down $1.96 to a weighted average price of $103.93 on 8,899 head, and the 5-day rolling average was $106.22 per cwt. May corn moved down 22 1/4 cents per bushel to $7.26 1/4 and May soybean meal was down $12.90 per ton to $466.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 315 points and the NASDAQ is up 237 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Higher live cattle futures prices were a bright spot in Tuesday's risk-off commodities trade, but the nearby April contract is still about $8 per cwt below where it was sailing prior to Russia's war. The April contract closed $0.60 higher at $140.90, the June closed $1.70 higher at $138.475, and the August closed $1.225 higher at $138.525. Cash cattle trade this week has been stalled until Wednesday or later, as bids remain elusive in the countryside. In the South, a few showlist asking prices are reported around $140-plus, which would be $2 higher than last week's average, and in the North, no levels have been seen yet. Although Friday's Cattle on Feed report gave packers some confidence about the near-term supply of market-weight animals, the ongoing pace of demand may equal what's coming down the pipe. 

Tuesday's slaughter was seen at a hefty 125,000 head, which is 2,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 more than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices were mixed in the afternoon: choice up $0.63 ($264.50) and select down $1.48 ($254.84) with a movement of 87 loads (58.5 loads of choice, 17.2 loads of select, 0 loads of trim and 11.71 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. With packers gearing up a rapid slaughter pace in anticipation of eventual spring and summer beef demand, the feedlot inventories may not feel quite so overabundant as the Cattle on Feed report suggested.

FEEDER CATTLE:

After peace talks between Russia and Ukraine made World War III seem slightly less likely Tuesday, global feed grain prices dropped by double digits, and cattle feeders were reminded that maybe they can afford to pay $160 or more for calves this spring, after all. March feeder cattle futures closed up $0.60 at $156.70. This contract will converge at the end of the month with the CME Feeder Cattle Index (up $0.29 to $155.11 on 3/25). Meanwhile, the April futures contract closed up $3.525 at $164.35 and the May contract closed up $4.325 at $169.40. Persistent drought in the West means there may not be great prospects for putting calves on grass this spring. But the spring calf crop dropping now will be aiming to sell against an October or November futures contract, with prices that rose above $185 per cwt during Tuesday's rally.

LEAN HOGS:

Even in the absence of wild outside market volatility, the lean hog futures market likely would have experienced a high volume of interest Tuesday in anticipation of the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that USDA will release Wednesday. Average pre-report expectations suggest the All Hogs and Pigs number may be down 1%, year-over-year, and the uncertain size of the breeding herd may also carry long-term bullish implications about supply. The nearby April lean hog futures contract closed Tuesday down $1.525 at $106.05; the May closed down $0.525 at $118.775; and the June closed down $1.425 at $124.625. Traders should anticipate active spread trade Wednesday as the supplies of various weight classes and farrowing intentions become clear to the market. Tuesday's lower trade in hog futures matched the tone in many of the commodity markets that measure the global economic temperature, including crude oil, which traded below $100 per barrel at various points during the session, and soybean meal, which dropped $12.90 per ton to $466 per ton. Wholesale pork prices dropped Tuesday, led by bellies down $15. The afternoon pork cut-out report showed the overall carcass value down $3.47 to $103.94, with 305.76 total loads (277.18 loads of cuts and 28.58 loads of trim). The CME Lean Hog Index for 3/25: up $0.68, $102.93, and the projected index for 3/28 is up $0.63, $103.56.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Neither the volatile gyrations of the futures market nor the suspense of a USDA report may seriously weigh on the pragmatic needs of packers.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Surge as Feed Pressure Relaxes

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Steep double-digit losses in the feed markets have translated into higher futures prices for feeder cattle and live cattle during Tuesday's trading session, but the lean hog market is behaving more like the rest of the commodity sector with risk-off losses after peace talks between Russia and Ukraine seemed productive. May corn is down 25 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $10.50 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 155 points and NASDAQ is up 138 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Some live cattle futures contracts are showing triple-digit gains midway through the Tuesday trading session, although relatively quiet trade volumes belie the idea that there has been a widespread change in outlook for this market specifically and not just for global ag trade more generally. The April futures contract is up $0.675 at $140.975, the June contract is up $1.55 at $138.325, and the August contract is up $1.125 at $138.425. Cash cattle bids and asking prices have yet to be established for the week, but will follow last week's numbers at mostly $138 (live) in the South and $221 (dressed) in the North. The near-term bearish supply implications from Friday's Cattle on Feed report may counterbalance the bullish mood from the futures trade so far this week. Tuesday's cattle slaughter is projected at 124,000 head, right in line with week-ago numbers and 6,000 more than year-ago numbers.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.87 Tuesday morning ($264.74) and select down $1.42 ($254.90) with a movement of only 47 total loads (30.57 loads of choice, 11.13 loads of select, 0 loads of trim, and 5.39 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

On the list of people who benefit when there's hope for a more peaceful Ukraine, add American cow-calf operators, who may get more for their calves if feed prices aren't so dramatically high. The March feeder cattle contract is up $0.625 at $156.725, the April is up $3.125 at $163.95, and the May is up $4.175 at $169.25. Although global grain shipments out of the Black Sea region are still far from risk-free, the wheat, corn, and soybean markets are all pulling back Tuesday while traders anticipate slightly less chance of a nuclear World War III. Nearby corn futures, down more than 25 cents per bushel, are still well above $7.00. Cheaper feed costs would leave more money in cattle feeders' pockets to spend on the tight supply of fall calves reaching the market in the next few months, so today's classic corn-down/feeder-cattle-up trading pattern is justified.

LEAN HOGS:

After peace talks between Russia and Ukraine Tuesday, there seems to be slightly less threat of years of disrupted global commodity trade and many markets are shedding some of their recently gained risk premium. The April lean hog futures contract is down $1.60 at $105.975, the May is down $0.325 at $118.975, and the June is down $1.45 at $124.60. This demonstrates the hog market's status as a signal of global trade and economic health, alongside crude oil's $3 losses (now down to "only" $100 per barrel) and the stock market's eager recovery. However, one trading session influenced by outside markets will not seriously alter the bullish trends in lean hogs and pork, especially as packers eventually look toward summer demand. There are 478,000 head projected to be slaughtered Tuesday, which is right in line with week-ago numbers but down 10,000 from a year ago.

The CME Lean Hog Index from 3/24 was 102.25 (up $0.75) and the projected index for 3/25 is 102.93 (up $0.68). Pork cutouts Tuesday morning total 168.79 loads with 152.25 loads of pork cuts and 16.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.19, to $109.60.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures to Remain Choppy

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the cattle complex held well Monday, it will be difficult to shake the overall bearishness of the Cattle on Feed report. Feedlots may have a difficult time prying more cash out of packers, even if they hold out for much of the week. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.23 and select up $4.18, but even with that, packers have some cattle already forward contracted, and they know that cattle will need to come to the market. Beef production is estimated to decline in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, but the way the market is shaping up, they may not be the case. The trade is not reflecting that due to the discount of June as well as August live cattle futures. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds as net buyers of 1,734 contracts bringing their net long positions to 41,878.

May hogs were the star of the day holding a gain of $1.40. May is kind of an off month with limited trading activity in general. To see this contract holding very strong even through settlement is unusual. Much of the trading for the next two days will be relative to the upcoming Hogs and Pigs report to be released Wednesday. Current futures are pricing in solid demand and tightening supplies moving into June and July. In fact, the June contact is carrying nearly double the usual premium for this time of year, yet new contract highs continue to be made. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $2.95 with cutouts down $2.49. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their net long positions by 911 contracts to the current net long positions of 62,424 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures held well despite the bearish report. This could provide traders with the confidence to build some long-term positions in the market.	1)	The large number of placements reported on the Cattle of Feed report will keep plentiful supplies of cattle available to the market over the coming months.
2)	Stronger boxed beef prices indicate continued strong demand that will need to be satisfied.	2)	Cattle futures are having a difficult time gaining traction being unable to break above the sideways trading range.
3)	Hog futures continue to make new contract hogs with no sign of a change in trend. Traders continue to buy into the trend.	3)	Trader may position themselves ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report Wednesday. This could result in some profit taking and a pull back.
4)	Tightening supplies of hogs are being reflected in the market. This will continue to underpin prices for the foreseeable future.	4)	Chart gaps remain under the market and a bearish report could result in a pullback and fill those gaps.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Deal With Friday's Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a rough day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts mauled over Friday's Cattle on feed report. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex trended higher, but with both cash and pork cutout values being lower by Monday's close ,Tuesday's market could see some push back. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.95 with a weighted average of $105.89 on 8,425 head. May corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $9.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 94.65 points and NASDAQ is up 185.60 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With Friday's Cattle on Feed report still weighing heavily on the market, the live cattle complex didn't stand much of a chance at closing higher ahead of Monday's closing bell. The irritating nature about the market right now is that it's all about timing. Feedlots have a very thin window from now until the first of May when they can regain some leverage in the cash market. Once the first of May arrives, calf-fed fats will begin to show up in the market and packers will have more cattle to pick and choose from than they'll know what to do with. At that point, feedlots' main priority will likely be throughput and keeping the market eroding the best it can. April live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $140.30, June live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $136.77 and August live cattle closed $0.82 lower at $137.30. The cash cattle market didn't see interest in Monday's trade, and it's likely that packers don't get serious about procuring cattle until Wednesday. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas and Texas. Monday's boxed beef report was interesting to sift through as both choice and select prices were higher, but select prices jumped $4.18 higher and the day's movement only amounted to a measly 71 loads. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 91,241 head. Of that 81% (73,927 head) were committed for nearby delivery while the remaining 19% (17,314 head) were committed for deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.23 ($263.87) and select up $4.18 ($256.32) with a movement of 71 loads (41.06 loads of choice, 13.12 loads of select, 4.20 loads of trim and 12.25 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to weaker. With packers buying 91,241 head last week, they could be quieter in this week's cash market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The grain contracts kept their lower ascend through closing, but with Friday's Cattle on Feed report showing a spike in placements and total on-feed numbers, feeders grew weary and found very limited interest throughout Monday's trade. April feeders closed $0.75 lower at $160.82, May feeders closed $0.25 lower at $165.07 and August feeders closed $0.12 lower at $178.32. It's likely that this grim outlook keeps with the feeder cattle market until interest in early spring/summer sales starts to pick up or until moisture falls. Feeders need to see that there is indeed interest and demand for their cattle, and while we fundamentally understand that there will be a need in time (a big need thanks to the nation's smaller cowherd), getting through this time when cash cattle are pressured and grain prices are volatile is painful. At West Point Livestock Auction in West Point, Nebraska, compared to two weeks ago, steers over 550 pounds sold $3.00 to $4.00 lower and heifers sold $1.00 to $3.00 higher. Demand was good for light weight steers and heifers with moderate demand for heavier weight feeder steers. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 25: up $0.29, $155.11.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed with its nearby contracts trading just above steady and its deferred contracts modestly lower. With supplies of market-ready hogs not likely to grow burdensome any time soon, it seems as though the market is trading comfortably and confidently in its nearby contracts, but there isn't as much consensus about its deferred contracts. It's likely that in Wednesday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, the market will gain some confidence as to what it may expect for the latter half of 2022. Tuesday's market could trend lower as both cash prices and pork cutout values closed lower, which could either mean that the market is stalling out after its aggressive rally, that it needs time to rest or that consumers are finding other proteins as pork prices have rallied. April lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $107.57, June lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $126.05 and July lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $125.35. Pork cutouts total 269.81 loads with 235.85 loads of pork cuts and 33.96 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.49, $107.41. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 24: up $0.75, $102.25.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. After packers aggressively chased last week's market, they could be bought up and not need to chase hogs as aggressively this week, especially if pork cutout values trend lower.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Hold Back While Hogs Press Onward

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into the new week, the cattle contracts are left trading without much direction or interest from traders. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is back to trading higher after an extremely aggressive week last week. May corn is down 7 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $6.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 284.54 points and NASDAQ is down 45.72 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's a grim Monday for the live cattle complex as the futures contracts are trading lower, boxed beef movement is lousy at 25 loads at midday and, with Friday's hefty Cattle on Feed report, the market isn't too optimistic about its nearby outcome given that supplies are about to become ample for market-ready cattle. April live cattle are down $0.37 at $140.10, June live cattle are down $1.15 at $136.22 and August live cattle are down $1.02 at $137.10. With supplies of market-ready cattle about to pressure the market, it's incredibly important that throughput remains strong. Last week's slaughter of 659,000 head was a relief, but the market needs to see that pace maintained in the weeks ahead. Seeing that the morning has only moved 25 loads is extremely odd; stay tuned to see what the afternoon's boxed beef report does. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas and Texas. Feedlots will be pressured again this week as packers look to keep the cash market steady at best before supplies help them push prices lower.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 91,241 head. Of that 81% (73,927 head) were committed for nearby delivery while the remaining 19% (17,314 head) were committed for deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.02 ($263.66) and select up $1.50 ($253.64) with a movement of 25 loads (13.86 load of choice, 6.91 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.17 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are having a typical Monday, chopping sideways, and the market longs for direction and discernment. April feeders are down $0.60 at $160.97, May feeders are down $0.50 at $165.27 and August feeders are down $0.22 at $178.22. The grain contracts are trending lower into Monday afternoon, but that doesn't just give the feeder cattle complex the green light to trade higher. The market knows, come the second half of the year, supplies are going to be thin, and that demand should boost prices higher. But in the meantime, feedlot managers are having to take a good look at their bottom line amid high feed prices and a volatile live cattle market and are trying to see where the price point for calves/feeders falls.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has seen trade on both sides of steady thus far through Monday, but as the day presses on the complex is gaining strength and trending fully higher into the afternoon. You can't put much faith into the midday pork cutout value; but seeing that it's trending $3.50 higher already sets a strong tone. Meanwhile, the cash hog market isn't as friendly as packers aren't willing to pay whatever the cost is at this point in the week's cash hog market, like they did last week. April lean hogs are up $0.70 at $108.17, June lean hogs are up $0.62 at $126.47 and July lean hogs are up $0.52 at $125.82.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/25/2022 is up $0.68 at $102.93, and the actual index for 3/24/2022 is up $0.75 at $102.25. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $7.17 with a weighted average of $103.11, ranging from $98.00 to $110.00 on 3,583 head and a five-day rolling average of $104.79. Pork cutouts total 150.48 loads with 123.97 loads of pork cuts and 26.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.50, $113.40.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cattle Futures Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders did not have much more to provide market direction after cash was set for the week at mostly steady prices. Some dressed cattle in the North traded $1.00 lower, leaving the market lethargic. The attention was turned to the Cattle on Feed report due out after the close Friday with traders somewhat content with their positions, leaving futures mixed for live cattle. Feeders drifted lower with a rise of grain prices. Cattle on feed numbers came in about as expected at 101% compared to the average estimate of 101.1%. However, placements were the real kicker with the actual number at 109% compared to the estimate of 106.5%. This indicates more cattle will be available to move through the system, delaying the anticipated tighter supplies as the year progresses. Supplies are expected to tighten but not it will take longer than anticipated. Packers will take advantage of these numbers and limit what they will be willing to pay for cattle. Marketings were a bit more of a bright spot at 105% compared to the average estimate of 104.2%. Futures are expected to open lower.

Hogs were on fire again Friday with new highs in all contracts except front-month April. Packers needed hogs to round out the week and paid an average of $2.27 more to get them. Added to that was cutouts posting a gain of $1.89. There just seems to be no stopping this market as supplies of hogs are truly tightening, causing packers to fight for supply. It is not too often that we see hog futures this close to cattle futures and the potential is for them to move closer. Traders may be a bit less exuberant this week as the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report will be released on Wednesday. However, if cash remains strong early this week, it may not make much difference what the report says and strength will continue.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Some of the Cattle of Feed report may already be factored into the market, which could result in limited downside weakness.	1)	Placements of cattle in feedlots were much higher than expected, which will put pressure on futures, possibly leaving a chart gap on the open.
2)	Strong demand should absorb higher cattle numbers more quickly, limiting potential heavy supplies and price weakness in the months ahead.	2)	Feedlots will have a tough time holding for higher cash as packers likely will not budge from lower bids this week.
3)	Futures continue to make new contract highs, which keep traders aggressively buying the strength. Futures weakness is short-lived.	3)	Hog futures have a chart gap below the market, which may be filled depending on the Hogs & Pigs report numbers on Wednesday.
4)	Packers are expected to be aggressive again this week as they scour the countryside for market-ready hogs.	4)	Higher pork prices may reach consumer resistance at some point. The market cannot go up forever.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Have Their Work Cut Out for Monday

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday closed with a number of new things for Monday's market to work through. The lean hog complex saw tremendous support through Friday's end and will be anxious to see the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Wednesday. The cattle contracts, unfortunately, have a different set of outcomes to sort through. With Friday's Cattle on Feed Report being bearish, the cash cattle market will likely feel the pressure.

Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.27 with a weighted average of $108.84 on 3,588 head. May corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 153.30 points and NASDAQ is down 22.54 points.

From Friday-to-Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle down $0.03, June live cattle up $0.30; March feeder cattle down $0.57, April feeder cattle down $0.75; April lean hogs up $8.08, June lean hogs up $9.78.

LIVE CATTLE:

The futures complex closed mixed with the nearby contracts higher but some of the deferred contracts lower. With Friday's Cattle on Feed data coming in substantially higher than a year ago, feedlots know in the short term there will be plenty of cattle for packers to pick through and prices are likely to suffer. It's important to know and understand today's Cattle on Feed data, but it's equally as important to understand that beef exports are booming, and once the calf-fed fats of last year get worked through, feedlots are going to have to hustle the market in order to get enough cattle to refill their bunks. The cash cattle market didn't see much interest in Friday's trade as the bulk of the week's business was already done. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for $138 (steady) and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $221, which is steady to $1.00 weaker than last week. Most of the cattle that traded in the North are set for delivery for the week of April 4. April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $140.47, June live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $137.37 and August live cattle closed $0.42 at $138.12.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 14,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 57,000 head -- 13,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. This week's slaughter is estimated at 659,000 head -- 15,000 head more than week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.23 ($262.64) and select down $0.45 ($252.14) with a movement of 76 loads (51.02 loads of choice, 7.47 loads of select, 6.32 loads of trim and 11.48 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $261.02 (up $3.69 from last week) and select cuts averaged $252.47 (up $2.40 from last week) with total movement of cuts, grinds, and trim totaling 534 loads.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Lower. It's likely that cash cattle trade lower next week as the COF report will pressure the market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a tough week for the feeder cattle contracts and with pressure likely to hit the market hard and fast Monday thanks to Friday's Cattle on Feed report, the sideways trade may see a downward trend next week. April feeders closed $1.15 lower at $161.57, May feeders closed $1.17 lower at $165.32 and August feeders closed $1.15 lower at $178.45. The problem with Friday's COF report for feeders is that with on-feed numbers totaling 12,199,000 head (which is up 1% from a year ago and the highest March 1 inventory since 1996) the report blankets the nearby market with concern and leads ranchers to wonder how much demand there will be for their calves in early summer sales. But what we cannot lose sight of is that BEEF COWS ARE BEING LIQUIDATED AT RECORD SPEEDS. The market will have a glut of cattle to process this spring/summer, but then feedlots are going to have to get scrappy to refill their bunks as the 2022 calf crop is going to be significantly lower. Marketing calves this year will come down to timing and not losing sight of the big picture despite the pressures of the day. At Napoleon Livestock Auction in Napoleon, North Dakota, compared to last week on a run of 3,033 head, feeder steers weighing 550 to 650 pounds traded $7.00 to $12.00 lower, those weighing 650 to 700 pounds and those weighing 750 to 800 pounds both traded steady to $5.00 lower. Feeder heifers weighing 550 to 700 pounds and those weighing 750 to 800 pounds traded $4.00 to $9.00 lower, but heifers weighing 700 to 750 pounds traded steady to $3.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 3/24/2022: up $0.13, $154.82.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had an amazing week. Pork cutouts gained $4.95 through the week, the cash market saw tremendous interest from packers every day expect Monday, and the futures contracts exploded higher. It's amazing how supply-and-demand mechanics work and how they can influence the market to unforeseen highs when customers are hungry and willing to pay up for product. April lean hogs closed $4.70 higher at $107.47, June lean hogs closed $3.77 higher at $125.85 and July lean hogs closed $3.42 higher at $125.30. While it's easy to look at the contracts and be in awe of their jolt to new highs, it was equally as thrilling to watch packers hustle the cash market time and time again this past week to ensure that they had enough hogs committed on their books. Next Wednesday the market will see the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which could give insight as to how long this run of thin supplies will last. Pork cutouts totaled 272.31 loads with 230.93 loads of pork cuts and 41.38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.89, $109.90. Friday's slaughter totaled 460,000 head -- 10,000 less than a week ago and 19,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 57,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 81,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 3/23/2022: up $0.29, $101.50.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. The fact is there's too much money on the line for packers to not have enough hogs committed for their upcoming kills.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Anxiously Wait for Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into Friday afternoon, the livestock complex is running a million different directions. The lean hog futures leaped higher amid short supplies and strong consumer demand. The feeder cattle contracts are trading lower as grains add pressure. And the live cattle market is patiently waiting to see what today's Cattle on Feed Report shows. May corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 9.79 points and NASDAQ is down 117.07 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are trading split into Friday afternoon as the nearby contracts are higher, but the deferred contracts are trending lower. The live cattle complex is caught in a hard spot as the market is anxiously waiting to see the Cattle on Feed data and wanted to see the cash market trade stronger than it did this past week. The cash market hasn't seen very many cattle trade this week and prices are called fully steady with last week's market. Feedlots have yet to see a bid be renewed thus far Friday, and it's looking like the bulk of this week's business is done. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $140 in the South and $223 in the North. April live cattle are up $0.62 at $140.30, June live cattle are up $0.27 at $137.22 and August live cattle are up $0.15 at $137.85. Today's Cattle on Feed report will be released at 2 p.m. CST. 

Southern live deals this week have been marked at mostly $138, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed trade has been marked at mostly $221, steady/weak with last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. The majority of the dressed business is set for delivery the week of April 4.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.32 ($262.09) and select down $1.55 ($251.04) with a movement of 50 loads (36.54 loads of choice, 5.01 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.61 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The poor feeder cattle contracts are again faced with higher grain prices, which means feeders are headed lower into Friday afternoon trade. The pressure from higher grain prices is enough to send the contracts lower but mixed with the unknown of today's Cattle on Feed report and it's February placement data, the market has a lot to juggle. April feeders are down $0.67 at $162.05, May feeders are down $0.37 at $166.12 and August feeders are down $0.67 at $178.92.

LEAN HOGS:

Thursday's rest was exactly what the lean hog complex needed as the market has launched to new highs Friday morning and is seeing robust interest from packers who got caught short bought on a Friday, and from a very supportive morning pork cutout value. Watching the lean hog complex has been nothing short of amazing here as of late and comes to show how dynamic the market can become when supplies are tight (TIGHT), and consumers are hungry. April lean hogs are up $3.00 at $105.77, June lean hogs are up $3.45 at $117.50 and July lean hogs are up $3.07 at $124.95.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/24/2022 is up $0.75 at $102.25, and the actual index for 3/23/2022 is up $0.29 at $101.50. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Hog Report, up $5.09 with a weighted average of $110.28, ranging from $100.00 to $112.00 on 1,397 head and a five-day rolling average of $104.43. Pork cutouts total 172.60 loads with 142.56 loads of pork cuts and 30.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $8.31, $116.32.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Cautious Ahead of Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures did not have much to go on Thursday other than some positioning ahead of the Cattle of Feed report released after the close today. Estimates for the report are 101.1% on feed, placements of 106.3%, and marketings at 104.3%. Higher placements could be bearish as the year progresses, but higher placements now could mean lower placements and tighter supply later in the year. Traders will mainly focus on positioning ahead of the report Friday. Any cash business Friday will be done at steady money as it has been so far this week. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $0.81 and select down $0.65. Weekly export sales were good at 27,500 mt, 40% higher than last week and a marketing-year high.

Hog futures tried to match and make new contract highs during the day but could not uncovered sufficient buyer interest to accomplish the task. Unfortunately, the lows of the day failed to close chart gaps remaining under the market leaving futures vulnerable for technical traders. Cash was weaker with the National Direct Afternoon report showing a decline of $0.57. It is possible packers may be a bit more aggressive to close out the week, depending on the number of hogs purchased so far. However, the cash action so far would suggest any gains might be minimal. Cutouts posted a nice gain of $1.62. Weekly export sales of 23,300 mt were not supportive with a decrease of 39% from the previous week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures could be establishing a solid base with continued sideways price movement. Steady cash should keep it supported.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report may keep a lid on price potential Friday. Any area of the report could be a little more bearish than expected. If so, futures could break lower again.
2)	Short covering ahead of the Cattle on Feed report could allow futures to retest the recent highs.	2)	April cattle generally carry a premium to cash at this time of year. However, they have been trading at a discount for a while.
3)	Hog futures were lower but held well despite lower cash and disappointing exports. New highs are likely as supplies continue to tighten.	3)	Hogs have chart gaps below the market that may be filled. The market tried but could not accomplish the task Thursday.
4)	Packers may need to purchase more aggressively Friday if they did not obtain enough for the week. They may need to bid higher fill orders.	4)	Packers may not need any more hogs this week, which could mean lower cash again Friday and further pressure on futures.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Higher While Hogs Traipse Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle and feeder cattle contracts were able to waltz through Thursday's close with higher prices, but the lean hog contracts ran out of enthusiasm and rounded out the day lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.57 with a weighted average of $106.57 on 8,802 head. May corn is down 9 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 349.44 points and NASDAQ is up 269.24 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Thursday's trade came and went and while the live cattle contracts closed slightly higher, it feels as though the market's uptick in prices came a day late as the cash market held steady this week. April live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $139.67, June live cattle closed $0.97 higher at $136.95 and August live cattle closed $0.55 higher at $137.70. Even though prices closed higher, the spot April contract is still trading for less than $140 and the June contract hasn't mustered up enough gumption to take on the 100-day average. Feedlots had a tough choice to make this past week and while some would have liked to see cattle trade $1.00 to $2.00 higher, others were worried about the flood of ready cattle that will happen in a month or so and opted to liquate supplies over pushing the cash market higher. Some light trade developed Thursday, but it was at fully steady prices with Wednesday's business. So far this week, Southern live trade has been marked at mostly $138, fully steady with last week's weighted averages; Northern dressed deals have been marked at mostly $221, steady/weak with last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Heading into Friday, the cattle market will be anxious for data from the Cattle on Feed report that afternoon. Placements again are the wild card for the report, and if placements are on the upper range of analysts' predictions it won't bode well for the cattle market.

Beef net export sales of 27,500 metric tons (mt) for 2022 -- a marketing year high -- were up 40% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (9,000 mt), China (7,600 mt) and Japan (6,000 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data showed for the week ended 3/12/2022 steers averaged 917 pounds (down two pounds from the week before) and heifers averaged 849 pounds (up one pound from the previous week).

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.81 ($262.41) and select down $0.65 ($252.59) with a movement of 129 loads (82.63 loads of choice, 24.03 loads of select, 4.91 loads of trim and 17.19 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Any trade that develops throughout Friday's market will likely be for steady prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The grain contracts bowed lower through Thursday's close, which lent the feeder cattle contracts an opportunity to close higher. April feeders closed $0.95 higher at $162.72, May feeders closed $0.70 higher at $166.50 and August feeders closed $0.45 higher at $179.60. But even though the feeder cattle contracts walked away with a slightly higher close, the saga of a sideways chop continued as the market was unable to make any real headway. If placements on Friday's Cattle on Feed report can come in on the lower end of analysts' projections, then there's some room for the market to potentially rally. But if placements burst, it won't treat the feeder market kindly. At Winter Livestock in Pratt, Kansas, at their midsession point and compared to last week's sale, feeder steers weighing 700 to 950 pounds traded unevenly steady but feeder heifers weighing 700 to 925 pounds sold $2.00 to $3.00 higher. The market didn't have enough calves to accurately portray a test. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 3/23/2022: down $0.28, $154.69.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex saw its spot April contract close higher while the rest of the marketplace closed lower as traders face technical exhaustion. April lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $102.77, June lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $122.07 and July lean hogs closed $0.72 lower at $121.87. Pork cutout values rounded out the day higher and even though cash hog prices weakened some, the day's volume was still noteworthy given that packers have been only buying aggressively for one to two days out of the week, but in this week's trade they were more aggressive. As the forecast shows warm spring-like weather, it's likely packers are trying to get as many hogs committed as possible so they can capture spring/summer buying interest when consumers roll out their grills. Given that fundamental support is still strong, it's likely the market rests and chops sideways to somewhat lower but doesn't undo all of the week's profit-taking. Pork cutouts totaled 257.11 loads wit 229.13 loads of pork cuts and 27.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.62, $108.01. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 477,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 3/22/2022: down $0.56, $101.21.

Pork net export sales of 23,200 mt for 2022 were down 39% from the previous week and 30% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (9,200 mt), South Korea (4,800 mt) and Japan (3,300 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data showed for the week ended 3/12/2022 live hog weights averaged 293 pounds (up one pound from the week before) and dressed weights averaged 219 pounds (up one pound from the previous week).

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Given that prices were slightly lower through Thursday's market and that pork cutout values closed higher, it wouldn't be surprising to see packers actively procuring hogs all the way through Friday's end as supplies of hogs are incredibly thin.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Show Signs of Technical Exhaustion

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog complex has given up its rallying momentum for the meantime and is trailing fully lower Thursday. The live cattle contracts are trading higher amid phenomenal export demand, but sadly the cash cattle market isn't seeing much new interest develop. May corn is down 9 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 274.90 points and NASDAQ is up 147.89 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are trading mildly higher, which comes a little too late in feedlots' eyes as they were hoping to see stronger trade when they were battling packers on prices for this week's cash trade. April live cattle are down $0.10 at $139.32, June live cattle are up $0.35 at $136.32 and August live cattle are up $0.32 at $137.47. The market had another strong export report to absorb Thursday morning, but unfortunately, it's having little positive effect on the cash market as this week's trading range has already been established. There's been a handful of trade reported in Kansas at $138, which is steady with the week's tone. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists is around $140 in the South and $223 in the North.

So far this week, Southern live trade has been marked at mostly $138, fully steady with last week's weighted average; Northern dressed deals have been marked at mostly $221, steady/weak with last week's weighted average basis Nebraska.

Beef net export sales of 27,500 metric tons (mt) for 2022 -- a marketing year high -- were up 40% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (9,000 mt), China (7,600 mt) and Japan (6,000 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.45 ($263.05) and select down $0.77 ($252.47) and a movement of 63 loads (33.17 loads of choice, 14.91 loads of select, 3.94 loads of trim and 10.73 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the grain complex trailing lower, feeders are taking the opportunity to rally and are leaning into Thursday afternoon modestly higher. March feeders are up $0.30 at $156.40, April feeders are up $0.20 at $161.97 and May feeders are up $0.35 at $166.15. The feeder cattle contracts are constrained to a tight sideways trading range that's well below both the 100- and 40-day moving averages. If cattlemen can get some much-needed moisture this spring ahead of grass growing weather the feeder cattle complex stands a chance at regaining some positioning.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex isn't having as strong a day as it had earlier this week, which could be from technical exhaustion or the sour news of Thursday's dismal export report. April lean hogs are down $0.10 at $102.45, June lean hogs are down $1.75 at $121.20 and July lean hogs are down $1.55 at $121.05. Even though cash prices are weaker, there has already been a snappy movement of 5,996 head traded -- which after Tuesday and Wednesday's big cash trades is rather impressive.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/22/2022 is down $0.56 at $101.21, and the actual index for 3/21/2022 is down $0.03 at $101.77. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.98 with a weighted average of $105.19, ranging from $98.00 to $112.00 on 5,996 head and a five-day rolling average of $104.01. Pork cutouts total 151.98 loads with 131.32 loads of pork cuts and 20.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.23, $108.62.

Pork net export sales of 23,200 mt for 2022 were down 39% from the previous week and 30% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (9,200 mt), South Korea (4,800 mt) and Japan (3,300 mt).

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Hold

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feedlots decided they needed to move cattle at steady money rather than hold out for higher cash that might not have materialized anyway. This sets the stage for the rest of the business to be done yet this week. Steady cash is not bad, but it is not what was hoped. Packers are being able purchase what they need now and contract some for the next two weeks.

Boxed beef closed higher with choice up $1.63 and select up $1.35. Maybe boxed beef has not yet reached a plateau with consumer demand holding well. The February Cold Storage report showed total frozen beef supply at 532.5 million pounds, up 4% from February 2021. Weekly exports sales will be released Thursday and will hopefully be an improvement over last week. Estimate for Cattle on Feed report on Friday are 101.1% on feed, placements of 106.3%, and marketings at 104.3%

Hog futures were impressive again Wednesday with triple-digit gains through the October contract. Traders bought with both hands on the opening resulting in futures leaving charts gaps. These gaps will likely be back filled but new contract highs were easily accomplished turning the trend back up. The gains seemed to be a reaction to strong cash and cutouts on Tuesday. Again, this rally was not support by cash as the National Direct Afternoon report showed a decrease of $0.54. Cutouts were down $0.32. Pork in cold storage for February totaled 480.4 million pounds, down 1% from a year ago. Weekly export sales will be released Thursday. Saturday slaughter was not available.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Steady cash cattle was not what was hoped but at least it was not lower and should be considered somewhat of a victory.	1)	Packers being able to purchase cattle at steady cash this week may dim the outlook for higher cash in the near term.
2)	The upcoming Cattle on Feed report could trigger some short covering pushing futures higher prior to the report and the weekend.	2)	Another week of low export sales could result in the market retesting the lows of earlier this month.
3)	Hogs establishing new contract highs should provide traders with confidence to buy and hold. The trend is their friend.	3)	Hog futures rallied without support of underlying cash and cutouts. This could result in a pullback Thursday.
4)	Pork demand is holding well despite the period of Lent when demand is not as strong. However, tighter supply points to higher prices.	4)	Chart gaps were left at the opening Thursday, which will be filled at some point.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feedlots Look to Liquate Inventory, Sell Cattle at Steady Money

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another strong day for the lean hog complex as its contracts continued to rally and the market saw a huge number of cash hogs trade. Meanwhile, the cattle contracts closed slightly higher but seeing cash cattle trade for steady money wasn't exactly what feedlots had hoped for. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.54 with a weighted average of $107.14 on 11,462 head. May corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $8.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 448.96 points and NASDAQ is down 186.22 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The cash cattle market saw trade develop in both the North and the South for steady money, which comes as disappointing news to bull-spreaders. With feedlots having very little time left to push prices higher ahead of the glut of cattle coming in the early part of May, each and every week plays a vital role in pushing prices higher before packers take full control of prices this summer. But just as every coin has two sides, feedlots are not only concerned with prices but also currentness. To some, pushing prices higher is the sole focus, and to others liquidating inventory ahead of the wave of cattle to come is equally as important, even if that means for steady money. Southern live cattle traded for $138 which is considered fully steady with last week, and Northern dressed cattle sold for $221 to $223, but mostly at $221, which is steady to somewhat weaker than last week. Most of the cattle that sold in the North are set for delivery for the week of April 4. April live cattle closed steady at $139.42, June live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $135.97 and August live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $137.15.

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Wednesday's Cold Storage Report showed total pounds of beef in freezers up 1% from the previous month and up 4% from last year

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction listed a total of 3,634 head (Iowa 1,325 head, Texas 1,215, Nebraska 480 head, Kansas 344 head, California 270 head), of which none actually sold; 1,060 were scratched from the auction and 2,574 head were listed as unsold, as they did not meet the reserve prices, that ranged from $138 to $144. Opening prices were $137; high bids ranged from $137 to $138.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.63 ($261.60) and select up $1.35 ($253.24) with a movement of 113 loads (80.36 loads of choice, 16.13 loads of select, 4.33 loads of trim and 12.41 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. With cattle having traded in both regions, it's likely the week's prices are set.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts closed slightly higher despite the grain contracts keeping with their aggressive momentum through the day's end as well. It helped that the cash cattle market developed trade at steady money, and that the live cattle contracts closed slightly higher. And while the market did close slightly higher, it still kept within its sideways chop and didn't break outside the trading range. April feeders closed $1.20 higher at $161.77, May feeders closed $0.37 higher at $165.80 and August feeders closed $0.30 higher at $179.15. At OKC West Livestock Auction in El Reno, Oklahoma, compared to last week on a run of 5,487 head feeder steers traded steady to $2.00 higher and feeder heifers traded steady to $2.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves sold fully steady, and largely the renewed interest in grass cattle came as last week the region got some much-needed moisture. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 3/22/2022: down $0.16, $154.97.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though cash hog prices and pork cutout values dipped lower by Wednesday's close, it's equally as important to note that over 11,000 hogs traded in Wednesday's cash market (very impressive) and until Lent is over hit-and-miss consumer demand is expected for pork protein. The lean hog contracts had no struggle in closing higher as the market found ample support technically and, even though cash prices dipped and pork cutout values close slightly lower, the market's fundamentals still had supportive undertones as noted above. April lean hogs closed $2.30 higher at $102.55, June lean hogs closed $2.90 higher at $122.97 and July lean hogs closed $2.77 higher at $122.60. The bigger question is: What's going to happen next? Will limited supplies of market-ready hogs help sustain these prices? Or will higher pork prices drive consumers away amid unbridled inflation? It's tough saying which outcome is more likely, but with all goods seeing price increases, consumers still must find their protein somewhere and pork remains a good option. Pork cutouts total 299.00 loads with 259.06 loads of pork cuts and 39.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout value: down $0.32, $106.39. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 3/21/2022: down $0.03, $101.77.

Wednesday's Cold Storage Report showed frozen pork supplies up 11% from the previous month but down 1% from a year ago. Stocks of pork bellies were up 12% from last month and up 34% from last year.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Wednesday's cash trade took a good number of hogs out of the market and if any packers are short bought, they'll likely have to pay higher prices to get the hogs they need bought.