GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was another day where most of the livestock complex focused on war, fear and the unknown. Heading into Friday's market, it's likely the lower doggish tone is kept through the week's end. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.36 with a weighted average of $105.83 on 8,748 head. May corn is up 22 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $9.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 112.18 points and NASDAQ is down 125.59 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Beef exports showed strong demand in Thursday's report as the data shared a new marketing year high. And boxed beef prices are starting to find some solid ground as they closed higher. But other than that, it was another day of lousy trade throughout the live cattle market. Futures closed lower, cash cattle traded lower, and the market seemed to focus on two things only -- war and fear. April live cattle closed $1.67 lower at $135.90, June live cattle closed $1.50 lower at $132.45 and August live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $134.65. The cash cattle market saw a little more trade, all at steady prices with the week's trend. Thus far this week live cattle in the South have sold mostly at $138 ($2.00 lower than last week) and Northern dressed cattle have sold at $220 ($4.00 lower than last week). Some more clean-up trade could develop Friday, but it's likely the week's business is mostly done with. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.
Beef net export sales of 27,500 metric tons (mt) for 2022 -- a marketing year high -- were up 16% from the previous week and 36% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (10,400 mt), Japan (6,400 mt) and South Korea (3,700 mt).
Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ended 2/26/2022 steer carcasses fell by three pounds to average 918 pounds, and heifer carcasses average 853 pounds, which is four pounds more than a week ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.24 ($253.94) and select up $2.58 ($247.37) with a movement of 106 loads (59.04 loads of choice, 10.10 loads of select, 7.36 loads of trim and 29.74 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Any more trade that develops will likely be steady prices with the week's trend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle contracts closed significantly lower as the corn market rallied another 15 to 22 cents. With pressures continuing to mount from inputs -- the contracts had no option but to trade lower and buyers scattered from sales in the countryside as risk continues to be a volatile factor in the marketplace. March feeders closed $2.40 lower at $151.65, April feeders closed $3.90 lower at $156.25 and May feeders closed $4.12 lower at $161.80. At Winter's Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week on a run of 5,500 head at the session's midpoint, feeder heifers weighing 700 to 975 pounds sold $4.00 to $5.00 lower. Heifer calves weighing 500 to 700 pounds sold $10.00 to $12.00 lower. Steers weren't well tested. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 3/9/2022: down $0.83, $153.06.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was the only sector of the livestock arena that walked away with some contracts rounding the day out higher. The spot contract of April struggled, but the other months posted modest gains which could have been partly encouraged by the fundamental fact that supplies of market-ready hogs aren't expected to increase any time soon. Pork cutout values closed lower, with the ham taking the biggest beating as it lost $14.83 to average $79.30. April lean hogs closed $1.05 lower at $100.10, June lean hogs closed $0.97 higher at $114.90 and July lean hogs closed $1.05 higher at $114.10. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 20,000 head less than a year ago. Pork cutouts totaled 330.81 loads with 304.18 loads of pork cut and 26.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.54, $104.20. The CME lean hog index 3/8/2022: up $0.26, $99.26.
Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ended 2/26/2022 live hog carcasses averaged 292 pounds which is one pound lighter than a week ago, and dressed weights remained steady at 218 pounds.
Pork net export sales of 25,400 mt for 2022 were down 40% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (12,800 mt), China (3,600 mt) and South Korea (2,100 mt).
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. I was surprised to see packers as aggressive as they were in Thursday's cash market. But as the market looks to Friday, I suspect they'll let the cash market ease lower ahead of the weekend.
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