GENERAL COMMENTS:
The live cattle complex is trading higher while the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts venture lower upon seeing crude oil jump over $100 again. The cash cattle market's ability to hold prices steady with a week ago has helped traders take a firm position, but traders are still unwilling to push the market too aggressively as they'd run the risk of pushing prices close to the 100-day moving average. May corn is up 25 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 143.69 points and NASDAQ is up 34.83 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
While the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts fade lower, the live cattle complex is mustering up some strength and trending higher amid a lightly tested steady cash cattle market. Wednesday's close came as utter disappointment to the live cattle complex and while Thursday's market is trending higher, it's still unwilling to touch the 100-day moving average. April live cattle are up $0.27 at $139.62, June live cattle are up $0.60 at $136.10 and August live cattle are up $0.35 at $136.85. Cash cattle have begun to trade in the in the South for $138, which is fully steady with last week's trade. The North has yet to really trade any cattle and it's appearing as though feedlots in the North are serious about getting prices closer to their asking price of $224.
Beef net export sales of 19,700 metric tons (mt) for 2022 were down 28% from the previous week and 11% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (6,600 mt), Japan (5,200 mt) and South Korea (2,600 mt).
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.49 ($257.59) and select up $0.51 ($250.78) with a movement of 85 loads (32.90 loads of choice, 6.21 loads of select, 4.86 loads of trim and 41.00 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
As the grain markets rally thanks to the uncertainty of war and crude oil prices back over $100, the feeder cattle contracts have tucked their tails and retreated to lower prices again. March feeders are down $0.42 at $156.82, April feeders are down $1.40 at $161.22 and May feeders are down $0.95 at $166.32. These types of back-and-forth price jumps, which then create immense volatility and uncertainty in the market, are likely to continue until the war in Ukraine is finished. Until then, the market will likely continue to look for every little clue and crumb of insight and neglect to value its fundamentals.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trending lower as the market longs for interested traders. You'd think the complex would be cherishing the day's stronger export report, but instead the market seems to be focusing on higher crude oil prices, which do play a big role in the market when supplies of hogs are thin and trucking may need to increase to get hogs to plants that are in desperate need of inventory. April lean hogs are down $1.67 at $100.70, June lean hogs are down $2.55 at $117.92 and July lean hogs are down $2.25 at $117.20. China wasn't a major player in Thursday's export report, which isn't surprising give U.S hog prices compared to other countries and given the fact that China has become a steady purchaser who buys every four to five weeks, not back-to-back.
Pork net export sales of 38,300 mt for 2022 were up 51% from the previous week and 36% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (21,700 mt), Japan (6,100 mt) and Australia (2,700 mt).
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/16/2022 is up $0.36 at $100.77 and the actual index for 3/15/2022 is down $0.06 at $100.41. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.17 with a weighted average of $102.44, ranging from $98.00 to $112.00 on 4,175 head and a five-day rolling average of $101.18. Pork cutouts total 114.76 loads with 92.56 loads of pork cuts and 22.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.84, $103.18.
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