Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Disappointing Day for the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a disappointing day for the livestock complex as a blanket of pressure seemed to mount over the market and as time passed the pressure only grew harder and harder to resist. FAS will be unable to publish weekly export sales data on Thursday, Sept. 1 or Thursday, Sept. 8, but we expect to resume regular reporting on Thursday, Sept. 15. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.02 with a weighted average of $104.81 on 8,165 head. December corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $9.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 280.44 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex had a tough day as not only did the futures complex close lower, but the pressure of a weaker cash cattle market amid lower boxed beef prices was enough bad news for one day. October live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $142.57, December live cattle closed $1.32 lower at $148.47 and February live cattle closed $1.02 lower at $153.32. With the spot October live cattle contract closing below the market's 40-day moving average, one must recognize that this lower close was a bitter one for the market to make. Bullish long-term fundamentals are still alive and well (aggressive throughput, waning choice+ carcass percentage, and extremely current showlists) but how the market will behave in the face of the three-day weekend which always throws a wrinkle into the market is hard to pinpoint. Nevertheless, cattlemen know that holiday weeks are tough on the marketplace but knowing this doesn't make it any easier to watch. A light handful of trade developed in Texas at $141 which is $1.00 lower than last week's business. Northern dressed cattle sold in Nebraska and Iowa for $228 which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head - 1,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.45 ($258.34) and select down $1.94 ($237.74) with a movement of 156 loads (77.30 loads of choice, 46.73 loads of select, 17.83 loads of trim and 14.08 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have traded in both regions now, prices are likely to remain steady ahead of the weekend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex closing $0.06 lower in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market was able to see its spot and nearby contract close slightly higher while the rest of the market closed lower as it absorbed the fat cattle market's weaker trade. September feeder cattle closed $0.27 higher at $182.45, October feeder cattle closed $0.20 higher at $183.47 and November feeders closed $0.17 lower at $184.52. It's likely that Thursday's market is pressured once again as the doggish sediment that comes with the cash cattle market trading lower won't be easy to shake. At Kingsville Livestock Auction in Kingsville, Missouri compared to last week the majority of steers sold steady to $2.00 higher, except those weighing 600 to 700 pounds which sold $5.00 to $7.00 higher. Heifers mostly followed along in the sale trend selling steady to firm in all spots except three loads of thin fleshed heifers weighing 590 pounds which saw a higher mark. Slaughter cows and bulls sold mostly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/30/2022: up $0.04, $183.04.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a rather peculiar day for the lean hog complex as the cash hog market saw prices close $2.02 lower and only 8,165 head traded, when in weeks past at this point the market had easily traded 30,000 +/- hogs by Wednesday's end. Pork cutout values weren't the problem either as Wednesday's afternoon report showed that prices gained $1.03 on Tuesday's market with the biggest leading jump stemming from the $6.39 gain in the belly. Holliday weeks are always a pain for the livestock complex as it allows for oddity throughout the marketplace -- and given what we saw develop in Wednesday's trade, there was plenty of oddity in the lean hog market for one day. October lean hogs closed $2.07 lower at $91.52, December lean hogs closed $1.62 lower at $83.87 and February lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $87.80. Pork cutouts totaled 262.09 loads with 222.03 loads of pork cuts and 40.07 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.03, $103.19. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head - 5,000 head less than a week ago and steady with year ago levels. The CME lean hog index 8/29/2022: down $1.90, $109.36.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. It's bewildering to me that packers have been so passive in this week's market. Surely prices and packer interest will be more aggressive come Thursday.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Doggish Tones Creep Into Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Doggish, sluggish pre-three-day-weekend tones have encapsulated the livestock complex and are leading most of the contracts lower into Wednesday afternoon. Both the cash cattle and cash hog markets have yet to really be traded this week, which is extremely unusual for the hog complex. December corn is down 9 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 50.63 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex would love to trade higher like the market was doing just a mere two weeks ago. But with a lack of packer support in the week's cash cattle market and when looking lower boxed beef prices dead in the eye -- lower tones have worked their way into the market. October live cattle are down $1.20 at $142.62, December live cattle are down $1.12 at $148.67 and February live cattle are down $0.87 at $153.47. The cash cattle market has yet to see any bids develop from packers, which could indicate packers are opting to cold-shoulder the market this week in hopes they'll be able to work its prices lower yet again. Asking prices of $144 are noted in the South, and the North is still unclear about their asking prices.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported seven lots (six lots in Texas and one lot in California), totaling 1,204 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at $139, high bids were at $139 to $140.50, but reserve prices were at $141 to $142.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.51 ($258.28) and select sown $1.26 ($238.42) with a movement of 106 loads (61.88 loads of choice, 21.87 loads of select, 12.62 loads of trim and 9.26 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex trending $0.08 to $0.09 lower into the afternoon, the nearby feeder cattle contracts are taking advantage of the corn market's weakness. But the rest of the market's contracts are trending lower as the livestock complex lacks substantial trader interest thus far throughout the day. September feeders are up $0.52 at $182.70, October feeders are up $0.35 at $183.62 and November feeders are up $0.05 at $184.75. If the cash cattle market could trade higher the deferred feeder cattle contracts would stand a better chance at scaling higher too; but at this point the cash cattle market has yet to see any interest this week.

LEAN HOGS:

It's a rather peculiar day for the lean hog complex as the market is working its way into Wednesday afternoon and still no significant interest has been shown to the cash hog market. The futures complex is trading modestly lower, as it is also realizing the lack on packer interest in today's marketplace. October lean hogs are down $1.80 at $91.80, December lean hogs are down $1.37 at $84.12 and February lean hogs are down $0.95 at $87.67. Midday pork cutout values are up, which could mean anything by the day's end. But now the market's biggest question is: Are packers going to cut processing speeds or is this a pre-three-day-weekend hiccup?

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/30/2022 is down $1.74 at $107.62, and the actual index for 8/29/2022 is down $1.90 at $109.36. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.27 with a weighted average of $105.11, ranging from $96.00 to $112.00 on 6,148 head and a five-day rolling average of $107.32. Pork cutouts total 157.51 loads with 136.91 loads of pork cuts and 20.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.37, $104.53.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There is optimism for steady to higher cash this week with business expected to surface Wednesday. It is uncertain just how aggressive packers will be as we head into the holiday weekend. Slaughter pace has been strong, which has kept cattle moving and feedlots current. The question of whether demand will remain strong after Labor Day is one that is being mulled over. The statement last Friday from the Fed chairman indicates they will be taking strong steps to curb inflation, which may cause more pain for consumers. Boxed beef took a hit Tuesday with choice down $3.25 and select down $3.07. Expected demand for the holiday may be filled with retail outlets waiting for actual demand through the weekend. Wednesday is the final day to trade the August live cattle contract.

Hogs were again supported technically as short-covering continued. Cash did not follow the usual pattern of strong prices on Tuesday with price falling $2.52 on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report. Cutouts did not find support either, declining $0.41 with continued weakness of bellies. Packers may not need to step up aggressively this week as it seems they have sufficient supply to keep chain speeds steady. Aggressive buying may wait until after the holiday when demand is assessed.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Corn futures were again lower overnight, which should provide support to the cattle complex.	1)	The recent support for cattle seems to be driven by weaker corn futures. If corn finds support, cattle may resume their recent downtrend.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to trade Wednesday with live cattle traders expecting nothing less than steady prices.	2)	Demand may slow after Labor Day, which may result in boxed beef prices trending lower.
3)	Hogs should continue to rebound from the oversold condition with short-covering generally lasting three days. The market might have been overdone to the downside.	3)	The recent rally in hogs has been technical in nature and not the result of fundamental support.
4)	Slaughter pace has increased and is closely in line with a year ago. This will keep hogs moving and current.	4)	Packers may not need to be aggressive this week, leaving the market floundering as the short-covering rally may be near its completion.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Day Lends the Livestock Complex the Support It Needed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

After a lousy start to the week on Monday, the livestock complex had a change of pace Tuesday as the corn market traded lower alleviating pressure for the cattle complex, and as the lean hog market continued to rally on technical support. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.52 with a weighted average of $106.83 on 7,286 head. December corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 361.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market closed higher, rallying off Monday's low and showing that the market doesn't want to trade below it's 40-day moving average if possible. October live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $143.82, December live cattle closed $0.87 higher at $149.80 and February live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $154.35. Right on the heels of last week's impressive slaughter of 678,000 head, the market can put another feather in its hat as the most recent USDA grading data shared that the nation's choice-plus grading percentage fell below the industry's five-year average, which marks a new low for 2022. As packers run fast chain speeds, fed cattle are being pulled ahead of schedule, which is obviously affecting grading percentages. Nevertheless, the deeper the market works its way into 2022, the thinner the supply of fat cattle there's expected to be. October live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $143.82, December live cattle closed $0.87 higher at $149.80 and February live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $154.35. The cash cattle market didn't see much interest throughout the day, meaning that Wednesday's market should start to see some interest from packers. Asking prices are noted at $144 in the South while Northern asking prices are still illusive. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, steady with a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.25 ($259.79) and select down $3.07 ($239.68) with a movement of 162 loads (94.75 loads of choice, 30.60 loads of select, 12.25 loads of trim and 24.78 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's a tough call as to what packers are going to do this week, but given how fast chain speeds are running, I tend to bet that the cash market will be able to hold prices steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn market closed $0.04 to $0.05 lower in its nearby contracts, which was enough for the feeder cattle complex to shoot higher. September feeders closed $2.25 higher at $182.17, October feeders closed $2.20 higher at $183.27 and November feeders closed $1.80 higher at $184.70. The tricky thing about the corn market right now is that, until harvest is completely finished, the feeder cattle market is subject to any and all pressure from the grain sector. The more upside that the live cattle market can make during this time will only help feeders because buyers need to see that their high cost of gains aren't going to be a wash on the backside when they go to sell these feeders as fats. Nevertheless, until this corn crop is harvested, expect some volatility in the feeder cattle arena. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers and steer calves traded unevenly steady and feeder heifers and heifer calves traded steady to $4.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 29: down $0.16, $183.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex charged higher throughout Tuesday's trade, showing it believes that, after the market's steep regression two weeks ago, there's upside now to be had. Demand will be the market's biggest driver through the later part of the third and fourth quarters of 2022. It's innately important that domestic consumer demand does not waver given that U.S. pork is higher prices than other competitors, and from there any export opportunities that the market wins is just gravy (or should I specify, ham gravy)! October lean hogs closed $1.35 higher at $93.60, December lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $85.50 and February lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $88.62. Pork cutouts totaled 355.38 loads with 327.34 loads of pork cuts and 28.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.41, $102.16. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, steady with a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 26: down $2.06, $111.26.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. Given that the market didn't see much interest throughout Tuesday's trade likely means that Wednesday's market is going to see the bulk of this week's business develop throughout its hours. Higher prices and a much bigger volume is expected.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lower Corn Gives Market a Chance to Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the corn complex trending lower into Tuesday's afternoon, the livestock complex is running aggressively into the second half of the day. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest develop yet but given that a three-day weekend lingers ahead of everyone, it's likely that they'll set out to get their business done early this week. December corn is down 10 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $7.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 284.59 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is rallying into Tuesday's afternoon as the complex can finally breathe again now that corn prices are trending lower. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest develop yet this week and guessing what tactic packers are going to use in approaching this week's market is a gamble. Packers could opt to sit back and work the cash cattle market $1.00 to $2.00 lower again this week, which would help drive cash cattle prices lower for the time being, but it will hurt their inventory. Packers could also show modest interest in this week's cash cattle market and try to hold the market mostly steady but largely focus on buying as many cattle as possible to alleviate their needs of supporting the market in the weeks to come. Either way, feedlots are going to have a tough time marketing cattle this week as packers use the nearing Labor Day holiday and the lighter kill schedule that it will possess to their advantage. October live cattle are up $1.12 at $144.02, December live cattle are up $1.00 at $149.92 and February live cattle are up $0.85 at $154.50. Asking prices are noted in the South at $144 but are still illusive in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.10 ($263.14) and select down $1.18 ($241.57) with a movement of 80 loads (42.57 loads of choice, 20.83 loads of select, 8.87 loads of trim and 7.60 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

After taking a royal beating in Monday's market, the feeder cattle complex is back to rallying as the corn complex is posting a $0.09 to $0.10 regression as the market heads into Tuesday afternoon. Unfortunately, the cattle complex is still subject to more pressure if the corn market possess much more upside even though supplies are thin compared to a year ago and strong fundamental factors are still pointing to higher prices later this year and well into 2023. September feeder cattle are up $2.15 at $182.07, October feeder cattle are up $2.05 at $183.12 and November feeders are up $1.70 at $184.62.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market is trending higher despite news developing that China has announced that they won't be accepting pork from the Tyson pork plant in Logansport, Indiana, effective Aug. 29. Given that China has only banned product from this one plant and that their sow inventory is lower than a year ago, it's unlikely that this will gravely affect hog exports. October lean hogs are up $0.87 at $93.12, December lean hogs are up $0.30 at $84.92 and February lean hogs are up $0.20 at $88.12. Keeping a close eye on both pork cutout values, and slaughter speeds will be incredibly important in helping gauge where the lean hog futures market could go next.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 29 is down $1.90 at $109.36 and the actual index for Aug. 26 is down $2.06 at $111.26. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.33 with a weighted average of $106.38, ranging from $100.00 to $120.00 on 6,386 head and a five-day rolling average of $117.71. Pork cutouts total 203.20 loads with 187.41 loads of pork cuts and 15.79 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.26, $102.83.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Corn Overnight May Provide Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle traders were uncertain of direction Monday, closing slightly lower in all contracts except front-month August. The final day to trade the August contract is Wednesday, leaving it trading close to cash. Traders are uncertain over the aggressiveness of packers this week. No bids were posted with packers content to see how the strength of the corn market will play out and how anxious feedlots might be to move cattle. Packers purchased some cattle ahead last week and will likely continue to do that again this week, as long as they do not need to chase the market higher. However, lighter showlists were distributed Monday, which may change that thinking. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $0.28 and select up $3.99. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds increasing their net-long position 520 contracts to a net total of 66,556 long positions.

Hogs found support Monday. Short-covering took place as traders did not want to press the market to the downside anymore. However, the gap in the October contract remains below the market and was not filled during the massive sell-off. Cash and cutouts were not the catalyst to provide support with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing cash down $0.90 while cutouts only managed to move $0.34 higher. Cash is expected higher Tuesday as they generally have been doing over the past weeks. The market may have over adjusted to expected reduced demand after Labor Day and may now retrace. The Commitment of Traders showed funds as net sellers of 7,150 contracts, reducing their net-long positions to 64,807 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Corn weakness overnight should provide some support to feeder cattle.	1)	The trend is down in cattle and may not change anytime soon as there are sufficient cattle to satisfy the higher slaughter rates.
2)	Lower showlists may result in packers having to pay steady money if not more to obtain the desired cattle for the week, as well as to continue to purchase ahead.	2)	Higher feed prices and higher placements means cattle will be coming to the market over time, limiting the bargaining power of feedlots.
3)	Hogs should find some follow-through buying as the market retraces from being oversold.	3)	The gain in hog futures yesterday was not the result of strong cash or cutouts, but short-covering in an oversold market. This may run its course in two to three days.
4)	Lower pork prices should stimulate consumer interest as they struggle with higher food prices. This should keep product moving and the market supported.	4)	October hog futures still have a chart gap that may be closed below the market before there will be any strong technical buying interest.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Higher Corn Pushes Cattle Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the lean hog market found support and traded higher throughout the day, but the cattle complex traded meekly as the market is concerned about rallying corn prices. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.90 with a weighted average of $109.35 on 6,149 head. December corn is up 18 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 184.41 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was an uneventful day for the live cattle contracts as the corn market's rally and excitement cast a negative and doggish tone across the cattle complex. October live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $142.90, December live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $148.92 and February live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $153.65. Even though the futures complex is opting to go with a lower tone to start the week off with, there are key fundamental matters that are still supportive. Last week's estimated weekly slaughter of 678,000 head could be the biggest of the 2022 calendar year, which will be known in two weeks when the USDA's Actual Slaughter Data is released. This week's cash cattle market is up for anyone's guess as packers have some decisions to make. Even though this week is leading into a three-day weekend, there's plenty of action to watch. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago but still 5,000 head more than a year ago. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.28 ($263.04) and select up $3.99 ($242.75) with a movement of 91 loads (55.08 loads of choice, 15.82 loads of select, 10.90 loads of trim and 8.97 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's tough to decide what packers are going to do this week as they weigh the pros and cons of either supporting the market this week and securing inventory, or sitting idle and not buying aggressively this week, which will only pressure them to be more aggressive in the weeks to come.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn market pushing a $0.15 to $0.18 rally through Monday's end, the feeder cattle complex stood no chance of closing higher. Last week's National Feeder and Stocker Cattle summary shared that steers and heifers in the North Central and South Central Regions sold steady to $4.00 higher, but that in the Southeast Region steers and heifers sold steady to $5.00 lower with the exception of 400-pound steers selling $2.00 higher. It's likely that this type of mixed interest is seen again this week in the market's feeder cattle sales as some buyers are backing away from the market until there's a better understanding on just how high corn is going to go. However, just as every coin has two sides, there are other buyers out there who are looking for every opportunity to buy calves and feeders alike because they know they're only going to become hard to find later this fall. September feeders closed $2.27 lower at $179.92, October feeders closed $2.32 lower at $181.07 and November feeders closed $2.27 lower at $182.90. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 26: up $0.91, $183.16.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders didn't pay the cattle complex any attention throughout Monday's trade, but the same can't be said about the lean hog market. Steady gains were seen throughout its complex and, with the combination of an aggressive slaughter on Monday and slightly higher pork cutout values, Tuesday's market stands a fighting chance at trading higher too. The day's mild $0.34 gain on pork cutout values wasn't much compared to the midday's report, but it was impressive that the market was able to close higher at all given that bellies fell another $11.22. October lean hogs closed $1.60 higher at $92.25, December lean hogs closed $1.65 higher at $84.60 and February lean hogs closed $1.45 higher at $87.92. Pork cutouts totaled 314.88 loads with 280.63 loads of pork cuts and 34.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.34, $102.57. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 25: down $2.73, $113.32.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. Monday's cash hog market didn't see hardly any interest, and packers could wait until Wednesday to really get aggressive in their buying pursuits for the week, but given that this week sits ahead of the Labor Day weekend, it wouldn't be surprising to see packers aggressive earlier than normal.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Welcome the Complex Into the New Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is a mixed bag heading into Monday's afternoon as the cattle contracts are focusing on the corn market's continued rally, all while the lean hog complex finds support early in the day. Nevertheless, the market is undeniably looking for both direction and support which could come this week or be delayed until after Labor Day. December corn is up 15 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 101.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The spot October live cattle contract is trading just slightly above steady while the rest of the market traipses lower. The onset of yet another day of higher corn prices has the cattle complex anxious as the market knows that this week's support could be hard to come by given that packers have a reduced kill schedule planned later this week for the Labor Day weekend. October live cattle are up $0.12 at $143.17, December live cattle are steady at $149.10 and February live cattle are down $0.22 at $153.67. The cash cattle market is a question mark in the market this week as packers paid little to no interest in the market last week, which they could either do again this week or adversely be pressured into supporting the market given that they were lax buyers last week. Given that this upcoming weekend is a long one, packers will likely try to do their business earlier in the week as opposed to waiting until Thursday or Friday.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 70,637 head. Of that, 69% (48,511 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 31% (22,126 head) were committed for the deferred delivery. Last week Southern live cattle traded for $138 to $144, mostly $142, which is steady with the previous week's weighted average; but Northern dressed cattle traded for $230 to $238, mostly $232 to $233, which was $1 to $2 lower than the previous week's weighted average basis in Nebraska.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.76 ($263.52) and select up $2.59 ($241.35) with a movement of 43 loads (23.99 loads of choice, 4.68 loads of select, 9.94 loads of trim and 4.76 loads of trim).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn market pushing a brisk $0.11 to $0.15 rally in its nearby contracts to start the week off, the feeder cattle complex is worried. DTN's Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said, "DTN's Digital Yield Tour, powered by Gro Intelligence, pointed out on Aug. 8, there is already a lot of evidence to expect a national corn yield significantly less than USDA's August estimate of 175.4 bushels per acre (bpa) and a whole season of tighter U.S. corn supplies ahead." And until harvest is complete and farmers, cattle feeders and traders alike all know how this year's crop panned out, the market is subject to flutter based on changes in this year's crop. September feeders are down $2.27 at $179.95, October feeders are down $2.32 at $181.07 and November feeders are down $2.32 at $182.85.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle complex fixates its attention on the corn market and it's gaining steam, the lean hog complex has found support and is trending higher into Monday's afternoon. So much of the lean hog market's immediate focus is on demand and product movement as packers desperately need to see retail interest and need somewhere to ship product to given that export demand has been less than helpful or desirable. It's interesting to see pork cutout values up over $7.00 higher to start the week out, which can undoubtedly change ahead of the day's afternoon report, but steady increases were seen across the report and on all cuts. October lean hogs are up $1.47 higher at $92.15, December lean hogs are up $1.40 higher at $84.35 and February lean hogs are up $1.27 at $87.75.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 26 is down $2.06 at $111.26, and the actual index for Aug. 25 is down $2.73 at $113.32. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.88 with a weighted average of $110.31, ranging from $100.00 to $127.00 on 3,618 head and a five-day rolling average of $121.78. Pork cutouts total 190.26 loads with 164.33 loads of pork cuts and 25.93 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.03, $109.26.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Uncertain Over Cash

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle were under pressure due to the strength of corn. It may be difficult to find support today with corn higher again overnight. The reduced corn yield potential seen on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour may keep corn prices elevated with the potential for higher prices as the crop is harvested. Live cattle could not overcome the spillover pressure from feeder cattle along with steady to lower cash last week. This week will be interesting as Labor Day will disrupt the usual buying habits of packers. Slaughter pace has been brisk with some purchasing done for the week ahead. Steady cash may be all the packers will want to pay due to lackluster boxed beef. Choice was down $0.78 with select up $1.22.

Hog futures may have stabilized but with plummeting cash, there seems little reason for traders to buy aggressively into the market. Futures contain a large discount to cash but that is not of concern to traders at the present time. Cutout weakness and ongoing demand is the focus of traders. Cutouts were down $0.43. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash falling $7.37 ending a very negative week. The past few weeks, packers turned more aggressive on Monday which may again be the case this week. However, higher cash today may not heal the market's wounds.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong slaughter pace may require packers to be more aggressive this week which could result in higher cash.	1)	Higher corn prices may increase the interest of feedlots to move cattle sooner rather than later. Packers will want to take advantage of that.
2)	Beef demand is not expected to fall significantly after Labor Day which should keep prices strong.	2)	The trend is down as cattle futures have declined steadily from the highs.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and ready for a bounce.	3)	October hog futures still have a chart gap to fill below the market before technical buying may be more evident.
4)	Lower pork prices should stimulate consumer interest as they go to the meat counter and compare pork to beef.	4)	The significant decline of cutouts last week indicates demand may be slowing as the summer grilling season winds down.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Doggish Tones Stick With Cattle

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a tough week for the livestock complex as pressure built from multiple different angles. Next week the market could see some more pressure built as the complex looks holiday-related hiccups dead in the eye, but once Labor Day is behind the market, things should level out. The biggest fear cattle posses right now is surrounding the corn market and how much upside is withholds. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $7.37 with a weighted average of $110.25 on 4,433 head. December corn is up 14 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $14.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,008.38 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle down $0.80, October live cattle down $2.20; September feeder cattle down $2.55, October feeder cattle down $3.38; October lean hogs down $2.47, December lean hogs down $1.20; September corn up $0.43, December corn up $0.41.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market didn't see much support throughout the week, or in Friday's market. October live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $143.05, December live cattle closed $0.80 lower at $149.10 and February live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $153.90. The cash cattle market didn't receive much interest this week as its prices were steady to $2.00 lower compared to last week and its total trade volume was thin. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $142 which is steady with last week's weighted averages, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $232 to $233 which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than Nebraska's weighted average last week. Even though the cash cattle market's weakness was expected, as packers plan for a lighter kill schedule next week ahead of Labor Day, the softer tone affected the entire marketplace and could affect next week's market too. However, once the market gets past the holiday week, heighted demand should be seen again for cash cattle, especially with how fast processing speeds are running.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is estimated to be around 56,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 678,000 head, 17,000 head more than a week ago and 25,000 head more than a year ago.

Friday's Imported Meat report shared that for the week fresh beef imports totaled 18,953 metric tons -- with Canada, Mexico and Australia being the biggest providers, and processed beef imports for the week totaled 1,471 metric tons with Brazil being by far the largest provider.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.78 ($262.76) and select up $1.22 ($238.76) with a movement of 101 loads (70.61 loads of choice, 11.22 loads of select, 10.95 loads of trim and 7.87 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $263.29 (down $1.29 from last week) and select cuts averaged $238.22 (down $0.21 from last week) with a movement of 586 loads of cuts, grinds, and trim.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2.00 higher. Both this week and last week packers were "buying on a long week for a short week," meaning that, come next week, packers are going to need to be thinking about the weeks ahead and how their inventories sit long term. Given that not every many cattle traded this week, next week's market could see more interest.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market took a beating throughout Friday's trade as the corn complex grew stronger as the day traded on, which sent the feeder cattle market tumbling lower ahead of the weekend. September feeders closed $2.05 lower at $182.20, October feeders closed $2.12 lower at $183.40 and November feeders closed $1.90 lower at $185.17. The feeder cattle market's biggest hinderance this past week was the corn markets rally. The rain the crossed the Southern part of the U.S. could be helpful to backgrounders as it could allow for some late summer growing, but, largely, it won't help hay production as the moisture came too late. Corporate buyers were noted to be less aggressive this week in sales, but still farmer feeders paid close attention and continue to be both active and aggressive in the spot market. The market may bobble this upcoming week as some sales will see less interest as Labor Day nears, but once the holiday is in the rearview mirror, feeder cattle interest should continue to be lucrative so long as the corn market doesn't break too much higher. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, throughout the entire state, and when compared to last week, feeder steers traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower, and feeder steers weighing 600 to 700 pounds traded $7.00 to $8.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded mostly steady. Steer calves traded steady to $1.00 lower while heifer calves traded steady to $3.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold steady to $3.00 lower, expect breaker cows traded $5.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $3.00 to $4.00 softer. Feeder cattle supplies over 600 pounds was 47%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 25: up $1.25, $182.25.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market found some support late in the week as pork cutout prices mostly stabilized and traders felt as though the market had worked its way low enough for the time being. October lean hogs closed $0.45 lower at $90.65, December lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $82.95 and February lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $86.47. The biggest question moving forward is: How will pork demand fair domestically? After seeing pork cutout values fall dramatically lower this past week, packers are needing to see renewed interest from consumers as international demand isn't robust. Pork cutouts totaled 330.54 loads with 299.06 loads of pork cuts and 31.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.43, $102.23. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 451,000 head, 16,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 28,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 24: down $1.95, $116.05.

­­­­­MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Packers aren't likely to be aggressive in the cash market until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Pressure Finds the Cattle Contracts Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the corn market pushing a $0.10 to $0.11 rally heading into Friday's afternoon, the cattle contracts are again rocked back on their heels as the cattle contracts can't seem to catch a break this week. The lean hog complex is trending mixed into Friday's afternoon as the nearby contracts are still trading hesitantly but the deferred months are back to rallying. December corn is up 10 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $11.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 648.20 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's been a doggish week for the live cattle complex so, if you're an adrenaline junky, the live cattle market isn't your bag this week. From technical downward pressure to higher carcass weights and a weaker cash market, cattle producers are praying that next week's shortened holiday-kill schedule passes by quickly so that the market can get back to a normal tone and hopefully snap back to focusing on the market's upward potential. Nevertheless, the live cattle contracts are trending fully lower into Friday's afternoon and there's little hope that the market drums up enough support to boost its prices ahead of closing. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more business develop and it's looking like the week's trade is essentially done with. Thus far throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $142 which is steady with last week's weighted averages, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $232 to $233, which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than Nebraska's weighted average last week.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.19 ($263.35) and select up $1.04 ($238.58) with a movement of 71 loads (47.73 loads of choice, 7.29 loads of select, 10.95 loads of trim and 4.94 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex gaining more support ahead of the week's end, the feeder cattle complex is feeling puny as it trades lower yet again this week. The corn complex is pushing a $0.10 to $0.11 rally, which burns the feeder cattle market given that the complex saw aggressive gains earlier in the week. September feeders are down $1.87 at $182.37, October feeders are down $1.72 at $183.80 and November feeders are down $1.37 at $185.70. If the market can close above the $183.75 support plane, that's somewhat positive as the market is respecting the nearby support level, but if the market closes below that point than next week's market could be under more pressure.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trending mixed into Friday's afternoon as the spot and nearby contracts face a little bit of push back while the deferred contracts trade mostly in a supported manner. The big question that the lean hog market is going to be faced with in the upcoming weeks and months is that of consumer demand and product movement. If packers end up having a tough time moving product, pork cutout prices could become pressured, but if consumers show interest in pork cuts, then the market stands a chance at trading steady. Export support has been hairy and it's likely to stay that way through the remainder of 2022, which makes domestic demand even more important. October lean hogs are down $0.30 at $90.80, December lean hogs are up $0.20 at $82.82 and February lean hogs are up $0.37 at $86.30.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 25 is down $2.73 at $113.32, and the actual index for Aug. 24 is down $1.95 at $116.05. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.88 with a weighted average of $110.31, ranging from $100.00 to $127.00 on 3,618 head and a five-day rolling average of $121.78. Pork cutouts total 226.25 loads with 203.44 loads of pork cuts and 22.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.00, $99.66.

U.S. and Canadian Cattle Inventory Down Two Percent

The USDA says all cattle and calves in the U.S. and Canada combined to total 111 million head on July 1, 2022, a two percent drop from the 113 million head on July 1 of last year. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 44.5 million head, were down two percent from last year. All cattle and calves in the U.S. as of July 1, 2022, totaled 98.8 million head, down two percent from July 1 of last year. All cows and heifers that have calved came in at 39.8 million head, a drop of two percent from a year ago. All cattle and calves in Canada totaled 12.3 million head as of July 1, down three percent from the 12.6 million head on July 1, 2021. All cows and heifers that have calved hit 4.69 million head on July 1, a number that’s down one percent from a year ago.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Limited Price Movement Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The bigger news for the livestock complex, as well as the grain complex, was that the Foreign Agricultural Service retracted the weekly export sales information of Thursday. They had migrated to a new reporting system, which encountered some problems with reporting that made the numbers inaccurate. Thus, the weekly export report Thursday provided much confusion.

Live cattle futures closed mixed with nearby months showing minor losses, having little fresh news to trade. Cash was steady to $1.00 lower depending on the area. Boxed beef was mixed again as has been the pattern this week, with choice up $0.71 and select down $0.08. Feeder cattle gained strength as corn prices came under pressure.

Hogs were able to rebound from the lows, closing moderately higher across the board. There was little incentive for traders to buy into the market with cash down $7.88 on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report and cutouts slipping $0.33. Even though hogs spent some time in negative territory Thursday, the chart gap in October failed to be closed leaving a negative technical tone. Saturday estimated hog slaughter is 37,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Slaughter pace remains brisk as plants continue to move product to satisfy consumer demand.	1)	The trend seems to have turned down with another lower low and lower high again Thursday.
2)	Lower cash has been established for the week, which should leave live cattle futures mixed to end the week.	2)	Strength in corn futures overnight may put pressure on feeder cattle again.
3)	Hog futures were able to close higher despite significantly lower cash and lower cutouts.	3)	October hogs came within 25 points of closing the remaining chart gap. This leaves the potential for price to fall back before finding any technical trade buying interest.
4)	Hog futures are oversold, which may trigger some short covering into the weekend.	4)	Both cash and cutouts have done poorly this week as demand slows ahead of Labor Day.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Official Slaughter Data Points to Higher Cattle Carcass Weights

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thursday treated the livestock complex better than the earlier part of the week did, but still the market is trading in a slow and lackadaisical manner as the markets seem exhausted. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $7.88 with a weighted average of $117.62 on 5,314 head. December corn is down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $15.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 322.55 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a mixed day for the live cattle complex as the day continued to see hesitant trading by traders in the market's nearby contracts while the deferred months set out to do business and closed higher. October live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $143.65, December live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $149.90 and February live cattle closed at $154.67. The cash cattle market saw a little more business develop but it was mainly in the form of clean-up sales as nothing challenged the prices the market established earlier in the week. Thus far throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $142 which is steady with last week's weighted averages, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $232 to $233 which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than Nebraska's weighted average last week. The week's movement is still thin with less than 55,000 head having been traded. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 17,000 mt for 2022 were primarily for China (7,100 mt), Japan (3,100 mt) and South Korea (3,100 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending 8/13/2022 steers averaged 901 pounds (up nine pounds from the previous week, and up three pounds from a year ago). For the same week heifers averaged 822 pounds (up eight pounds from a week ago, and up five pounds from a year ago). This carcass data is somewhat bewildering as a hike in carcass weights doesn't seem logical as processing speeds have been running aggressively, temperatures are still too warm for maximum feeding potential and showlists are extremely current.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.71 ($263.54) and select down $0.08 ($237.54) with a movement of 124 loads (77.74 loads of choice, 19.97 loads of select, 8.28 loads of trim and 17.99 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's likely that the bulk of this week's business is done with as packers are showing the market every little attention.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was refreshed to see corn prices trend $0.07 to $0.08 lower into the day's close which consequently allowed for the feeder cattle complex to rally through closing. September feeders closed $1.22 higher at $184.25, October feeders closed $1.07 higher at $185.52 and November feeders closed $1.02 higher at $187.07. With the corn market easing some of the pressure it imploded on the market earlier this week, feeders were again able to advance their position and will likely set out to regain all of what the market lost earlier in the week as feeder cattle demand is still strong. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas at their midsession point prices for feeder steers weighing 700 to 900 pounds were called $2.00 to $4.00 higher than last week and feeder heifers weighing 600 to 900 pounds sold $3.00 to $6.00 higher. Feeder cattle weighing over 600 pounds made up 91% of the sale. The CME feeder cattle index 8/24/2022: up $0.95, $181.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market waltzed through Thursday's market seeming unphased by the market's lousy export report as the complex trotted through the day with fully higher prices. October lean hogs closed $0.72 higher at $91.10, December lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $82.62 and February lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $85.92. Pork cutout values closed lower again but the report's lowest performing cut for the day was the loin, which fell $6.67 from Wednesday's end. Belly prices saw a mild $0.98 addition after their nose-dive earlier this week. Slaughter speeds are running aggressively which likely means that pork cutout values could come under pressure again if domestic consumer support doesn't see much improvement. Pork cutouts totaled 254.18 loads with 222.69 loads of pork cuts and 31.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.33, $102.66. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head - 2,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/23/2022: down $1.18, $118.00.

Thursday's export report shared that pork net sales of 6,700 mt for 2022 were reported for Canada (2,400 mt), Mexico (2,400 mt) and Japan (900 mt).

­­­­­FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With packers seeing little interest in the export market for U.S. pork and teetering demand domestically.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Pay the Complex a Little More Attention

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trending mostly higher into Thursday's afternoon as traders pay the market a little more attention after having given the complex the cold shoulder earlier in the week. Heading into the afternoon, cattlemen and hog producers both will be looking for the market's latest carcass data. December corn is down 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $10.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23.53 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is trading mixed into Thursday's afternoon as traders are showing the market mild attention. October live cattle are down $0.27 at $143.50, December live cattle are down $0.20 at $149.80 and February live cattle are up $0.02 at $154.65. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more business develop as packers are paying the cash market little attention this week. So far this week, live deals in Kansas and Texas have been marked at mostly $142, generally steady with last week's weighted averages. Dressed sales in Nebraska and Iowa have been at $232 to $233, about $1 to $2 lower than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. The market expects to see some more clean up trade develop, but largely this week's cash cattle trade is expected to be thin.

Beef net sales of 17,000 mt for 2022 were primarily for China (7,100 mt), Japan (3,100 mt) and South Korea (3,100 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.26 ($264.09) and select up $0.86 ($238.48) with a movement of 47 loads (23.64 loads of choice, 9.67 loads of select, 7.56 loads of trim and 5.71 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the corn market prints a mild $0.02 regression in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market is leaning into Thursday's afternoon mildly higher. September feeders are up $0.62 at $183.65, October feeders are up $0.60 at $185.02 and November feeders are up $0.45 at $186.50. Feeder cattle demand throughout the countryside has continued to see extremely strong demand from farmer feeders, but some corporate feedlots have noticeably backed down their buying as they aim to cool this rallying market.

LEAN HOGS:

After two weeks of immense down pressure, the lean hog contracts are finding support in Thursday's market despite seeing a pitiful export report this morning. October lean hogs are up $0.37 at $90.72, December lean hogs are up $0.25 at $82.42 and February lean hogs are up $0.10 at $85.85. It's not surprising to see cash prices lower as packers already bought aggressively two days this week, and the rest of the week will likely see a lower reduced tone in the cash market. Pork cutout values are somewhat higher at midday with a rebounding $15.37 jump from bellied. Watching long-term pork cutout value trends will be important as it will decern what domestic pork demand is.

Pork net sales of 6,700 mt for 2022 were reported for Canada (2,400 mt), Mexico (2,400 mt) and Japan (900 mt).

The projected lean hog index is unavailable at this time. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $14.95 with a weighted average of $111.19, ranging from $106.00 to $131.00 on 3,469 head and a five-day rolling average of $122.45. Pork cutouts total 123.31 loads with 104.12 loads of pork cuts and 19.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.71, $105.70.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Support Remains Elusive

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Fear and reality seem to be coming together with cash looking to be steady to lower this week. The rebound of corn prices is putting reactionary pressure on the market. Feedlots that have cattle that need to be moved are anxious to sell as the cost of feeding them is rising. Packers are looking at seasonality and potentially slower demand. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up $0.03 and select down $1.18. Nearby feeder cattle closed slightly higher as demand remains strong due to lower availability. Thursday is the last day to trade the August feeder contract.

Hogs just cannot find support. The December contract closed the chart gap easily Wednesday and then continued to fall. October still needs to accomplish that task and a lower opening could finish the job. The National Direct Afternoon report showed a decline of $1.62. This coupled with a decline of $2.09 in cutouts, does not provide much hope for finding support Thursday. It is likely weekly export sales may be meaningless in the current market. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 37,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle have been able to hold well in the face of rising corn prices. Feedlots are looking ahead to better beef prices.	1)	Cash cattle trading $1.00 lower does not bode well for the market in the near term with Labor Day just around the corner.
2)	Liquidation of the cattle herd continues due to drought conditions in some areas. This will impact supply later.	2)	The uptrend line has been penetrated, opening the possibility of a price correction.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and ripe for a bounce. Heavy selling should be near the end as futures near strong technical support.	3)	Hog weights increased nearly a pound this week. Increasing slaughter will leave plentiful product available to the market.
4)	Closing the chart gap in December hogs and potentially closing the October gap today could generate some buying interest. Futures hold a large discount to cash.	4)	October still needs to close the chart gap below the market. This may be accomplished this week as cash and cutouts remain weak.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Nearby Feeder Cattle Contracts Close Higher Amid Elevated Corn Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mostly lower trending day for the livestock complex as both the live cattle and lean hog markets closed fully lower Wednesday, but the feeder cattle market saw its nearby contracts round out the day green. Nevertheless, both the hog and beef markets would be elated to see a strong export report early Thursday morning. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.62 with a weighted average of $125.50 on 20,613 head. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 59.64 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts rounded out the day lower as the market saw little support from traders and faced a slightly weaker cash market. October live cattle closed $0.82 lower at $143.77, December live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $150.00 and February live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $154.62. The market has steadily declined since last week's high point, which could be the market's tone until after Labor Day. There were some cattle traded in the North for $233, which is $1.00 softer than last week's weighted average. Southern cattle have traded for $142, which is mostly steady with last week's trend. Wednesday's afternoon reports share that only 33,827 head have sold thus far this week. Thursday's market will look for more clean-up business to develop, but it's likely that this week's volume is thin. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago but still 10,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.03 ($262.83) and select down $1.18 ($237.62) with a movement of 121 loads (61.30 loads of choice, 23.92 loads of select, 20.98 loads of trim and 14.55 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have traded in both regions now, it's likely that the week's price trend holds steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex performed far better than I expected given that Tuesday's corn rally served the complex a mere blood bath, and that, in Wednesday's market, the nearby corn contracts closed steady to $0.05 stronger but even so the nearby feeder cattle contracts saw slightly higher close. September feeders closed $0.57 higher at $183.02, October feeder cattle closed steady at $184.45 and November feeders closed $0.37 lower at $186.05. It's quite impressive that the nearby feeder cattle contracts were able to close slightly higher given the immense pressure that the corn market has added over the last couple of days and with fat cattle trading steady to $1.00 lower. Then again, this week's market is a great reminder that, even though markets can break higher or lower at any given point in time, strong fundamental demand like we are seeing right now in the market is a tough force to run over. At Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, Missouri, compared to last week, steer calves weighing under 450 pounds traded $15.00 to $20.00 higher while heavier weight steers traded steady to $4.00 higher. Feeder steers and heifers were not well tested but steady to firm prices were noted. It was noted that buyers outnumbered sellers throughout most of the day and there were buyers in the crowd that hadn't been present in several months. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 26%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Aug. 23: down $0.10, $180.50.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex trended lower throughout Wednesday's market, which didn't come as a surprise given the tough day that it endured on Tuesday with cutout prices dropping a staggering $12.53. Pork cutout values closed lower again today, but the day's decline came from blended pressure from both bellies and butts; bellies fell $6.15 lower and butts dropped $6.98 lower. Regardless, it's evident that packers are needing to move product as they're increasing chain speeds and cutting product prices. October lean hogs closed $2.52 lower at $90.37, December lean hogs closed $2.05 lower at $82.17 and February lean hogs closed $1.82 lower at $85.75. Pork cutouts totaled 305.50 loads with 262.81 loads of pork cuts, and 42.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.09, $102.99. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Aug. 22: down $0.80, $119.18.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have bought hogs for two days now likely means that they'll inactive buyers throughout the rest of the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Corn Market's Rally Still Jarring Cattle

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle market's upside run was shaken by Tuesday's mind-blowing rally in the corn complex. Given that this week sits in front of Labor Day, it makes sense that packers aren't as aggressive in the cash market since they have dark days planned ahead. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 130.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trending lower into Wednesday's afternoon as the market has a doggish tone cast over its marketplace. The market's fundamentals are still strong: showlists are extremely current, beef demand is stable and processing speeds are running vigorously, but as traders look at the lackadaisical cash cattle market and bumpy ride that the market took on Tuesday -- thanks to higher corn -- traders are leery. October live cattle are down $0.80 at $143.80, December live cattle are down $0.65 at $150.02 and February live cattle are down $0.40 at $154.55. The cash cattle market has a few bids sitting on the table, but at this point, feedlots seem uninterested in their presence. Bids of $148 live and $230 dressed are being offered in Nebraska, but otherwise the market is idle. It's not surprising to see that packers haven't shown much interest in this week's cash cattle market as they're buying for short kill weeks (both this week and next). More business is likely to develop but this week's trade will likely be well below 100,000 head.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.43 ($263.23) and select down $0.25 ($238.55) with a movement of 68 loads (34.30 loads of choice, 14.34 loads of select, 7.60 loads of trim and 11.68 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn complex isn't as sporty as it was in Tuesday's market -- it's trending steady to $0.02 lower in its nearby contracts, but still the feeder cattle contracts are seeming to lick their wounds thus far through Wednesday's market as they trend slightly lower into the afternoon. The cattle market is far better at this point than what it was a year ago, but still with heightened input costs for everything, cattlemen and traders alike are leery of the marketplace Wednesday as their concerns of higher feed prices lingers. September feeder cattle are down $0.10 at $182.35, October feeder cattle are down $0.30 at $184.15 and November feeder cattle are down $0.47 at $185.95.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex isn't trending well into Wednesday's afternoon, keeping with its descend as the market absorbs Tuesday's horrendous close for pork cutouts. October lean hogs are down $2.32 at $90.57, December lean hogs are down $1.90 at $82.32 and February lean hogs are down $1.47 at $86.10. The day has seen a sizeable movement of hogs, but the market is only trending $4.86 higher from Tuesday's market as packers have been able to slightly pump the brakes on the cash market. Thursday morning the hog complex is hopeful for a strong export report but knows that limited interest could be possible as other countries offer cheaper product.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 23 is down $1.18 at $118.00 and the actual index for Aug. 23 is down $0.80 at $119.18. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $4.86 with a weighted average of $126.14, ranging from $111.50 to $133.00 on 19,383 head and a five-day rolling average of $123.14. Pork cutouts total 141.34 loads with 119.69 loads of pork cuts and 21.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.57, $104.51.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs May See Further Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle traders searched for a reason to trade one way or the other with limited direction surfacing. It was thought cash could be steady this week and a few transactions Tuesday seemed to indicate that may be the case. Wednesday will test the resolve on both sides and set direction. Live cattle were able to remain stable despite the strength of corn futures. The same could not be said for feeder cattle as they were under pressure even though there remains strong demand for feeder cattle at auctions. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down $1.72 and select up $0.44. Traders may take a wait-and-see attitude Wednesday.

Pork cutouts took a beating Tuesday with one of the largest declines I have seen. Cutouts fell a whopping $12.53 with bellies falling $48.59 and hams down $11.07. The full impact of this large decline might surface in Wednesday's trade as this final price was posted after the close. However, cutouts were down substantially with bellies down hard already on the morning report which influenced the trade, taking it from the strong gains to negative territory. Cutouts remaining that low will not help trading Wednesday. The bright spot was that the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a gain of $0.77.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle held well, shrugging off the bearish Cattle of Feed report and higher corn futures for the second day.	1)	Higher corn futures will keep some pressure on cattle, resulting in feedlots wanting to move cattle rather than hold for higher cash.
2)	There is a strong potential for steady cash cattle trade this week despite some plants possibly being dark on Saturday and Labor Day just around the corner.	2)	The uptrend of cattle has been violated, which could increase long liquidation as futures correct from being overbought technically.
3)	Hog slaughter continues to improve as lighter weights and good demand keep packers aggressive.	3)	The substantial weakness of cutouts Tuesday may be difficult to overcome. Significantly higher belly stocks in July compared to a year ago may leave buyers less aggressive.
4)	If cutouts regain the large losses of Tuesday, futures may be able to rebound similar to what they did earlier yesterday.	4)	The failure of hog futures to hold strong early gains may indicate traders are not willing to buy and hold. Price rallies may be seen as selling opportunities.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lean Hog and Feeder Cattle Markets Beat Up

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Between the drastic close in pork cutout values and the corn market's effect on the feeder cattle market, the live cattle complex was the mellow market of the livestock complex throughout the day. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.77 with a weighted average of $127.12 on 20,218 head. December corn is up 26 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $11.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 154.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex minded its own business throughout Tuesday's market and impressively was able to close out the day higher. It wouldn't have been surprising to see the corn market's surge affect the live cattle complex and send it trading slightly lower but given how thin market-ready supplies of cash cattle are, the market held its own. October live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $144.60, December live cattle closed $0.15 higher at $150.67 and February live cattle held steady at $154.95. There was a little bit of trade that developed in the South at $142 which is mostly steady with last week's market. The North remained mostly quiet with just a handful of cattle trading, and certainly not enough to say that a trend was established. The market should see more business develop come Wednesday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.72 ($262.80) and select up $0.44 ($238.80) with a movement of 152 loads (95.62 loads of choice, 21.14 loads of select, 13.99 loads of trim and 21.11 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers have some dark days ahead of them it's likely that prices remain steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's crazy just how much can change in a day -- and the grain complex is a perfect example of just how fast a market can run! On the announcement of weakening crop ratings and lower yield estimates the corn complex closed higher and sent the feeder cattle market trembling lower. The nearby corn contracts were able to add $0.23 to $0.26 by the day's end, and the feeder cattle market did all that it could to erode as little as possible. Thankfully the market can absorb this news while feeder cattle demand still remains extremely aggressive which helped the market from closing even lower than it did. September feeders closed $1.90 lower at $182.45, October feeders closed $2.02 lower at $184.45 and November feeders closed $2.17 lower at $186.42. At Cattlemen's Livestock in West Point, Mississippi, compared to last week feeder steers sold $2.00 to $12.00 higher, and feeder heifers sold $2.00 to $8.00 higher, while feeder bulls sold $6.00 to $15.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $6.00 to $7.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 11%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/22/2022: down $0.06, $180.60.

LEAN HOGS:

The corn market was one whirlwind that we all had to get our minds wrapped around, but the staggering $12.53 drop in pork cutout values was another. Our databases show that today's drop is the second steepest loss on record, following the $12.93 loss posted on 6/22/2021. Today's gut-wrenching decline stemmed from the $48.59 drop in bellies, though it is also important to note that the ham did fall $11.07. Nevertheless, Wednesday's hog market could be faced with a lower futures market as traders try to sort out what happened to pork demand, and if this was a rash cut made on bellies, or if this is a signal of demand. October lean hogs closed $1.07 lower at $92.90, December lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $84.22 and February lean hogs closed $0.12 lower at $87.57. Pork cutouts totaled 415.72 loads with 365.65 loads of pork cuts and 50.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $12.53, $105.08. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head - 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/19/2022: down $0.31, $119.98.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Given that over 20,000 head traded in Tuesday's market and that pork cutout values saw such a staggering loss, it wouldn't be surprising to see hog prices remain steady if not even trend lower come Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Grain News Overwhelms the Feeder Cattle Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

While the lean hog and feeder cattle markets dance with problems in their own markets, the live cattle complex is trending higher into Tuesday's afternoon somewhat unchallenged. The feeder cattle complex is sweating bullets as the corn market rips higher and shows that there could be problems with this year's crop. December corn is up 30 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $11.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 160.45 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is leaning into Tuesday's afternoon fully higher and somewhat eager to see what the cash cattle market can the week before Labor Day. August live cattle are up $0.62 at $141.85, October live cattle are up $0.42 at $144.92 and December live cattle are up $0.42 at $150.97. The market is showing that it's willing to trade higher after closing slightly lower Monday afternoon, but traders need to see strong fundamental drive to do so. The cash cattle market could potentially hold the market steady this week, but then again it wouldn't be surprising to see prices fall lower given that some plants are planning to be dark this Saturday and that next week will see a reduced kill schedule too because of the holiday. Some light business has begun to develop in Texas for $142, which is about steady with last week's business, but otherwise the market hasn't seen any interest from packers. Asking prices in the South are noted at $145 but are not yet established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.44 ($264.08) and select up $1.12 ($239.48) with a movement of 94 loads (61.74 loads of choice, 11.68 loads of select, 6.18 loads of trim and 14.20 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's a tough day for the feeder cattle complex because not only are corn prices trading higher, but so are all the other grain markets, and by trading higher, I mean flat soaring into Tuesday's afternoon. The grain market began to soar higher as falling crop ratings and the belief that yields are continuing to erode has everyone questioning what exactly this year's crop will amount to. Dana Mantini, DTN's Senior Market Analyst, said, "Corn conditions fell to the second lowest rating since 2012, and findings so far from the Midwest crop tour seem to find more problems related to drought in the central and Western Corn Belt. New crop corn and soy futures have both moved above the closely watched 50-day moving average." As the noon hour nears the corn complex is rallying anywhere from $0.27 to $0.30. Nevertheless, the feeder cattle market has become overpowered by grain market news and is trending fully lower into the afternoon. September feeders are down $1.35 at $183.00, October feeders are down $1.30 at $185.17 and November feeders are down $1.50 at $187.10.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is a mixed bag as the futures complex is trading higher, but Tuesday morning's midday pork cutout value posted a drastic $11.14 regression. October lean hogs are up $0.25 at $94.22, December lean hogs are up $0.72 at $85.20 and February lean hogs are up $0.97 at $88.67. The pork cutout value fell so direly as the bellies printed $47.37 lower Tuesday morning. If pork cutout values do show a steep erosion on the afternoon's report, then the contracts could come under pressure. The cash hog market is seeing light interest in the market to start the day off, as it seems that packers are gauging demand and could wait until Wednesday to really begin to buy hogs.

The projected lean hog index for Aug. 22 is down $0.80 at $119.18, and the actual index for Aug. 19 is down $0.31 at $119.98. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.27 with a weighted average of $121.28, ranging from $112.50 to $135.00 on 5,255 head and a five-day rolling average of $123.91. Pork cutouts totaled 232.99 loads with 198.65 loads of pork cuts and 34.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $11.14, $106.47.