GENERAL COMMENTS:
While the cattle complex celebrates the onset of lower corn prices, the lean hog complex is trending lower into Monday's afternoon as traders pay its market little attention. December corn is down 18 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $18.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 48.34 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
After regressing through most of last week's trade, the live cattle complex is taking Friday's slightly higher close and using it to strengthen Monday's market. August live cattle are up $0.10 at $136.55, October live cattle are up $0.05 at $142.27 and December live cattle are up $0.17 at $148.32. Thankfully, the market is seeing positive attributes rise into Monday's market as not only are traders showing the complex mild support, but boxed beef prices are again trading higher. As the market works its way through the burdening supplies of fat cattle amid the hot summer months, keeping an eye on boxed beef prices and slaughter speeds is a dire matter. If boxed beef prices begin to regress, then the market could be in for a world of hurt, but if prices hold steady until supplies of market-ready cattle become thinner this fall, then the market can again breathe as it tiptoes past a sleeping bear.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 74,804 head. Of that 67% (50,088 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 33% (24,716 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.26 ($270.50) and select up $1.44 ($243.69) with a movement of 39 loads (26.59 loads of choice, 5.65 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.01 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
After getting beat up much of last week thanks to the corn market's rally, feeders aren't sorry to see corn trading lower Monday morning as the grain market comes to terms with the fact that the first vessel of Ukraine grain has left the port of Odesa. Feeders didn't waste any time pushing the market higher as the complex opened and gapped higher to propel the market higher. August feeder cattle are up $1.05 at $179.62, September feeders are up $1.42 at $182.97 and October feeders are up $1.57 at $185.30. The monthly temperature outlook has August bearing temperatures that are mostly above normal. This could pressure cow-calf producers to sell their calves earlier than normal as ranchers are still trying to heal from drought.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex hasn't seen as much support, but there's still time for that to change. The morning's pork cutout values are higher which spreads some hopefulness that the market will see continued support from consumers again this week. August lean hogs are down $0.55 at $120.10, October lean hogs are down $0.80 at $96.45 and December lean hogs are down $0.17 at $87.65. The market doesn't expect to see cash interest as early as Monday, but if pork cutout values and cash interest could grow stronger in Tuesday's market then the futures complex may be more apt to trading higher.
The projected lean hog index for July 29 is up $0.45 at $121.87 and the actual index for July 28 is up $0.84 at $121.42. Hog prices average $114.93 on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, ranging from $113.50 to $128.00 on 3,196 head and a five-day rolling average of $124.44. Pork cutouts total 175.18 loads with 141.10 loads of pork cuts and 34.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.74, $129.08.
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