GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a disappointing day for the livestock complex as a blanket of pressure seemed to mount over the market and as time passed the pressure only grew harder and harder to resist. FAS will be unable to publish weekly export sales data on Thursday, Sept. 1 or Thursday, Sept. 8, but we expect to resume regular reporting on Thursday, Sept. 15. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.02 with a weighted average of $104.81 on 8,165 head. December corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $9.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 280.44 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex had a tough day as not only did the futures complex close lower, but the pressure of a weaker cash cattle market amid lower boxed beef prices was enough bad news for one day. October live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $142.57, December live cattle closed $1.32 lower at $148.47 and February live cattle closed $1.02 lower at $153.32. With the spot October live cattle contract closing below the market's 40-day moving average, one must recognize that this lower close was a bitter one for the market to make. Bullish long-term fundamentals are still alive and well (aggressive throughput, waning choice+ carcass percentage, and extremely current showlists) but how the market will behave in the face of the three-day weekend which always throws a wrinkle into the market is hard to pinpoint. Nevertheless, cattlemen know that holiday weeks are tough on the marketplace but knowing this doesn't make it any easier to watch. A light handful of trade developed in Texas at $141 which is $1.00 lower than last week's business. Northern dressed cattle sold in Nebraska and Iowa for $228 which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head - 1,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.45 ($258.34) and select down $1.94 ($237.74) with a movement of 156 loads (77.30 loads of choice, 46.73 loads of select, 17.83 loads of trim and 14.08 loads of ground beef).
THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have traded in both regions now, prices are likely to remain steady ahead of the weekend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the corn complex closing $0.06 lower in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market was able to see its spot and nearby contract close slightly higher while the rest of the market closed lower as it absorbed the fat cattle market's weaker trade. September feeder cattle closed $0.27 higher at $182.45, October feeder cattle closed $0.20 higher at $183.47 and November feeders closed $0.17 lower at $184.52. It's likely that Thursday's market is pressured once again as the doggish sediment that comes with the cash cattle market trading lower won't be easy to shake. At Kingsville Livestock Auction in Kingsville, Missouri compared to last week the majority of steers sold steady to $2.00 higher, except those weighing 600 to 700 pounds which sold $5.00 to $7.00 higher. Heifers mostly followed along in the sale trend selling steady to firm in all spots except three loads of thin fleshed heifers weighing 590 pounds which saw a higher mark. Slaughter cows and bulls sold mostly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/30/2022: up $0.04, $183.04.
LEAN HOGS:
It was a rather peculiar day for the lean hog complex as the cash hog market saw prices close $2.02 lower and only 8,165 head traded, when in weeks past at this point the market had easily traded 30,000 +/- hogs by Wednesday's end. Pork cutout values weren't the problem either as Wednesday's afternoon report showed that prices gained $1.03 on Tuesday's market with the biggest leading jump stemming from the $6.39 gain in the belly. Holliday weeks are always a pain for the livestock complex as it allows for oddity throughout the marketplace -- and given what we saw develop in Wednesday's trade, there was plenty of oddity in the lean hog market for one day. October lean hogs closed $2.07 lower at $91.52, December lean hogs closed $1.62 lower at $83.87 and February lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $87.80. Pork cutouts totaled 262.09 loads with 222.03 loads of pork cuts and 40.07 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.03, $103.19. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head - 5,000 head less than a week ago and steady with year ago levels. The CME lean hog index 8/29/2022: down $1.90, $109.36.
THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. It's bewildering to me that packers have been so passive in this week's market. Surely prices and packer interest will be more aggressive come Thursday.
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