Monday, January 23, 2023

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weaker Corn Sends Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is elated to see lower corn prices through Monday's trade as it gives all the livestock contracts an opportunity to trade higher. March corn is down 14 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $6.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 263.18 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are off to a higher start and seems to be taking on Monday's noon hour with confidence. The spot April contract is currently trading above its 40-day moving average and if the contract is able to close above that threshold could lend technical support to Tuesday's complex. One would think that corn prices would have little to no effect on the live cattle contracts given that fat cattle have very few days left on feed, but corn prices do impact the live cattle market and Monday's lower tone in corn is partly to thank for live cattle trading higher. February live cattle are up $0.67 at $157.30, April live cattle are up $0.40 at $160.32 and June live cattle are up $0.62 at $157.22.

Most of last week's cash cattle trade developed on Thursday and Friday. Northern cattle traded for $243 to $252, but mostly at $248 which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $154.50 to $156, but mostly at $155, which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 63,454 head. Of that, 83% (52,835 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (10,619 head) were committee for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.61 ($271.11) and select down $0.57 ($255.86) with a movement of 60 loads (27.25 loads of choice, 9.87 loads of select, 15.39 loads of trim and 7.11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market is having a bit of a rebounding day as the contracts trade anywhere from 112 to 242 points higher. The market took Friday's Cattle on Feed report as neutral to mildly supportive as the report noted fewer placements and few cattle on feed, but the actual USDA percentage was slightly higher than what analysts predicted. Nevertheless, the onset of cheaper corn prices is helping the market trade higher as cheaper feed is always a delight in the current market's position. March feeders are up $2.45 at $183.45, April feeders are up $2.17 at $187.95 and May feeders are up $1.87 at $192.22.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has shifted gears from its fully lower approach to Monday's trade that it initially had early in the day to a mixed outlook as the contracts near noon. February lean hogs are up $0.15 at $77.97, April lean hogs are up $0.35 at $86.07 and June lean hogs are up $0.22 at $102.75. The market has seemed to find support in its spot April contract at the $85.00 threshold. The market is obviously thankful to be seeing cheaper corn prices as well, as it makes for potentially higher margins for pork producers. Cutout values are higher on the midday report, which doesn't mean that closing values will indeed be higher, but one can hope.

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.13 with a weighted average of $70.27, ranging from $63.75 to $74.00 on 3,844 head and a five-day rolling average of $70.42. Pork cutouts total 170.78 loads with 147.77 loads of pork cuts and 23.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.49, $83.48.




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