GENERAL COMMENTS:
With it being a holiday-shortened week, export data will be released Friday morning. The cash cattle complex has seen a handful of cattle trade in the South for $157, which is fully steady with last week's weighted average, but the North has yet to trade cattle. Unless packers up their bids they could go short bought this week as feedlots seem committed (especially in the North) to trading cattle higher again this week. March corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 379.27 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The cash cattle market has seen a thin (very thin) movement of cattle traded in the South for $157, which is fully steady with last week's weighted average, but the North has yet to trade any cattle. Bids of $158 live and $250 to $252 dressed are being offered in Nebraska, but those are substantially lower than feedlots' asking price of $255-plus. Unless feedlots begin to see bids that are substantially higher than what the market current sees, it's not unlikely that trade could be held off until Friday, or that this week's movement could be incredibly thin as showlists are current and feedlots are simply unwilling to move cattle at steady money at this point. The live cattle contracts are erroring on the side of caution just like the feeder cattle market as they drift anywhere from 27 to 67 points lower. If boxed beef prices close fully higher, and the cash market does indeed improve, then Friday's market could see stronger prices. February live cattle are down $0.40 at $156.90, April live cattle are down $0.40 at $161.02 and June live cattle are down $0.35 at $157.00.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.33 ($282.56) and select up $1.42 ($257.82) with a movement of 78 loads (53.37 loads of choice, 14.06 loads of select, 3.67 loads of trim and 7.34 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The corn complex is again trading lower Thursday, but after the aggressive rally that the feeder cattle market posted Wednesday, the complex is playing it safe and trading modestly lower as it longs for fundamental support from the live cattle market. January feeders are down $1.65 at $183.57, March feeders are down $1.60 at $186.62 and April feeders are down $1.35 at $190.35. The cash cattle market has seen a handful of cattle trade in the South at steady money, but otherwise the market has yet to be developed. If and when the North begins to trade cattle, if prices are indeed higher -- the feeder cattle complex could use that added support and potentially begin to trade higher.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is continuing to trade lower as the market desperately longs for fundamental support. Yes, cash prices are higher, but the day's volume is still thin and with packers going on two weeks now of not supporting the cash sector -- today's slight support isn't much in the grand scheme of things. February lean hogs are down $2.15 at $81.92, April lean hogs are down $1.92 at $90.97 and June lean hogs are down $1.47 at $105.72. Unfortunately, it's likely that the market keeps with this downward momentum through closing and likely through the end of the week unless some drastic changes are seen in the cash market and more so in pork cutout values.
The projected lean hog index for Jan. 4 is down $0.80 at $78.26, and the actual index for Jan. 3 is down $0.39 at $79.06. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.35 with a weighted average of $74.47, ranging from $72.00 to $77.00 on 6,750 head and a five-day rolling average of $74.01. Pork cutouts are unavailable due to packer submission problems.
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