Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Continues to Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another gangbuster day for the livestock complex as deteriorating corn prices give the market even more incentive to trade higher. No substantial cash cattle trade developed, but trade will likely begin to take place on Thursday as packers won't be able to sit this week's market out entirely. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $11.47 with a weighted average of $86.62 on 22,741 head. July corn is steady and July soybean meal is steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 124.99 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex kept with its rallying nature throughout Wednesday's market as traders continue to run the contracts higher thanks to exceptional fundamental support. No substantial cash cattle trade has been reported yet as feedlots aren't worried about marketing their pens too soon given how close to the knife packers are. Yes, packers bought just shy of 100,000 head in last week's cash market, but with front-end supplies of market-ready cattle alarmingly thin, they'll likely need to be active in this week's market again. Bids of $171 were offered in Kansas and bids of $285 dressed were offered in Nebraska, but feedlots elected to pass them by. Cash cattle trade should begin to develop throughout Thursday's market as packer interest will likely grow. June live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $169.12, August live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $167.67 and October live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $171.77. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 127,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.88 ($305.84) and select down $0.62 ($287.15) with a movement of 137 loads (84.71 loads of choice, 25.88 loads of select, 14.70 loads of trim and 11.55 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. I believe that this week's cash cattle market will likely trade somewhat higher as packers simply cannot afford to be short bought and go without cattle when beef demand is as strong as it is.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts charged onward and forward throughout Wednesday's market as traders continue to see opportunity in the market amid a weaker corn complex. What's so encouraging about the market's rally is that its being seen and traded both technically and fundamentally. Traders are seeing the bullish fundamentals of the market's short supplies and unwavering demand and are choosing to reflect that positive outlook throughout the futures complex. With demand for both calves and feeders exploding as grass grows, the feeder cattle market remains in an incredibly strong positive especially as corn prices are trading lower. August feeders closed $1.40 higher at $239.17, September feeders closed $1.55 higher at $242.22 and October feeders closed $1.65 higher at $244.12. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 750 to 950 pounds sold $10.00 to $12.00 higher, but a big load of feeder steers weighing 1,019 pounds sold for $199.50 which is $25.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 600 to 900 pounds sold $10.00 to $12.00 stronger. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 30: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

complex closed higher, pork cutout values closed higher and cash prices closed substantially higher. It will be interesting to see how the market trades on Thursday as Wednesday's open did create a gap and, at some point, traders will have to fill the hole. So, then the question becomes: is the market hot enough to keep trading higher or will traders take a more cautious approach moving forward after trading the market higher over the last two days? Time will tell, but again, strong pork demand remains a crucial component of the market's ability to sustain a higher trek. June lean hogs closed $1.75 higher at $82.57, July lean hogs closed $3.80 higher at $83.32 and August lean hogs closed $3.05 higher at $81.85. Pork cutouts totaled 297.68 loads with 266.04 loads of pork cuts and 31.64 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.59, $85.27. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 8,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 29: down $0.40, $80.08.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's likely that packers didn't get all the hogs they needed bought in Wednesday's market, but its also likely that they won't be willing to pay as much as they did Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weak Corn Prices Propel Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another day when the livestock complex is trading higher primarily thanks to the regression seen in the corn complex. With inputs a major factor in ranch costs, seeing feed prices decline is a pleasant gesture that both operators and traders warmly welcome. July corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 263.50 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is again trading higher as traders note the regression in corn prices and are chomping at the bit to see what develops in this week's cash cattle market. June live cattle are steady at $168.87, August live cattle are up $0.20 at $167.35 and October live cattle are up $0.45 at $171.77. The big question of this week's live cattle market is: What are cash cattle prices going to do? On one hand, you could argue that packers got enough cattle bought last week and that prices are going to trade steady to somewhat lower. On the other hand, with beef demand as supportive as it is, packers can't afford to slow down processing speeds much more as they have money to be made from beef sales. No cash cattle trade has been reported at this point, and bids and asking prices aren't even listed yet. Trade is expected to be delayed until Thursday if not potentially Friday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.63 ($305.59) and select up $0.44 ($288.21) with a movement of 80 loads (50.17 loads of choice, 12.24 loads of select, 9.62 loads of trim and 8.01 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is again trading higher as the market loves to see corn prices trading lower again Wednesday. With the nearby contracts trading anywhere from $0.06 to $0.08 lower, feeders feel more than comfortable trading higher as demand continues to flame their market higher. If cash cattle can trade steady to somewhat higher again this week, it's tough telling how excited the feeder cattle contracts could become. August feeders are up $1.62 higher at $239.42, September feeders are up $1.82 at $242.57 and October feeders are up $1.90 at $244.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market is trading higher yet again, and not by a mild measure, as some of the nearby contracts gapped higher at Wednesday's start. The combination of cheaper corn prices amid a market that's seeing stronger demand is helping give traders the confidence they needed in order to justify turning the market around and allowing for stronger trade. It will remain vital to the market's ability to continue to trade higher than pork demand remains stable, which is a big ask of a market that has plenty of supply and of a consumer base that's witnessing steep inflation. June lean hogs are up $1.67 at $82.50, July lean hogs are up $3.82 at $83.35 and August lean hogs are up $3.07 at $81.87.

The projected lean hog index for May 30 is down $0.55 at $79.53, and the actual index for May 29 is down $0.40 at $80.08. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $5.34 with a weighted average price of $80.45, ranging from $76.00 to $87.00 on 6,015 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.99. Pork cutouts total 177.41 loads with 156.89 loads of pork cuts and 20.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.87, $86.55.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Though Buying Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex found some support from lower corn prices is the general correlation. However, the greater support continues to be tighter supplies and continued strong beef demand. Cattle futures soared to new contract highs. Tuesday, boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.03 and select up $2.85. Higher boxed beef and lower corn may have feedlots holding out for higher cash. Packers have better margins than a year ago but will not want to pay more than they need to. Last week, of the cattle they purchased, 30% were for deferred delivery, which could make this week interesting. It is a holiday-shortened week, so some cash could trade Wednesday. Feeder cattle pushed substantially higher and not far from limit up Tuesday, but they did not hold the full gains. This is an indication the market has not reached a peak and, even though overbought technically, there is no indication of a top.

Hogs were on fire after a moderate start to the day. Buyers turned more aggressive, likely tied to the desire to take some profits ahead of the end of the month. This short-covering triggered stops and propelled the oversold market higher. Yes, cutouts were higher Friday, but cash was not. A price rally of this magnitude was not only due to higher cutouts. Cutouts were higher Tuesday with an increase of $1.48. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report recorded an average weighted average price of $75.15, but no change from the previous day due to no prices Monday. With futures closing limit up, there is the potential for follow-through buying Wednesday. However, the price rally may be limited.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs for cattle continue to fuel the buying interest. Tighter cattle supplies continue with some drought concerns again developing.	1)	Futures cannot continue higher indefinitely and the market is overbought and ripe for a correction.
2)	Consumer demand for beef continues to remain strong even as all food prices have increased.	2)	Packers purchased cattle ahead for deferred delivery which may temper some of their buying interest this week.
3)	Hogs likely saw some profit-taking into the end of the month, which could see follow through Wednesday.	3)	June hogs closed the chart gap that remained from Thursday with July's gap possibly being closed today, which could cap the price rally.
4)	Pork cutouts were stronger Tuesday, which could provide support Wednesday.	4)	If this is tied to end-of-month short-covering, it may have limited upside potential as the market wrestles with the uncertainty of Prop 12.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Soars

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an exhilarating day for the livestock complex as weaker corn prices incentivized traders of the livestock markets aggressively. No cash cattle trade was reported, but business could begin to develop some time Wednesday at the earliest. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report averaged $75.15 on 4,106 head. July corn is down 10 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $9.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 69.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a thrilling day throughout the live cattle complex as traders ran the market sharply higher to celebrate the onset of cheaper corn prices. The live cattle complex has been nothing short of amazing this past year as thin supplies and unwavering demand have kept prices elevated and on an upward trek. The nearby contracts of June, August and October 2023 all scored new contract highs by Tuesday's end. June live cattle closed $1.52 higher at $168.87, August live cattle closed $2.00 higher at $167.17 and October live cattle closed $1.72 higher at $171.32. No cash cattle business was reported throughout the day as feedlots are assessing their showlists after the long weekend. Packers were aggressive in last week's market, buying just shy of 100,000 head. It's a coin toss on what cash cattle prices will do this week because the fact remains that front-end supplies of market-ready cattle are incredibly thin. But again, packers were aggressive in last week's market. New showlists appear to be mixed: higher in Kansas, somewhat higher in Texas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 1,000 head less than year ago.

Most of last week's negotiated cash cattle trade took place Wednesday, but there was a little clean-up trade later on Thursday and Friday. Northern dressed cattle ranged from $280 to $287, but mostly sold at $285 to $286, which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted averages. Southern live cattle traded from $170 to $174, which was steady in Kansas but $1.00 higher in Texas. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 99,646 head. Of that 70% (69,770 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 30% (29,876 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.03 ($304.96) and select up $2.85 ($287.77) with a movement of 115 loads (73.41 loads of choice, 20.71 loads of select, 7.64 loads of trim and 13.40 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Feedlots understand just how close to the knife packers are in their bought inventory and they fully intend to use this time as an opportunity to advance the market while the opportunity lasts.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a whirl wind type of day for the feeder cattle complex as corn prices closed lower and finally gave the feeder cattle market the opportunity to trade substantially higher. Incredible demand and limited supplies have been the driving force of the cattle market's rally. But drought, moisture and feed prices remain troubling concerns for the industry. So, when traders saw the corn complex trading lower at Tuesday's start, they took the opportunity at hand and ran the feeder cattle contracts $3.00 higher by day's end. August feeders closed $3.85 higher at $237.77, September feeders closed $3.57 higher at $240.67 and October feeders closed $3.45 higher at $242.47. The nearby contracts August, September and October of 2023 all closed at new contract highs. This bull market is continuing to show its strong nature and, given how depleted the U.S. cowherd is, I tend to believe there's a lot more days like these to come. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 5/26/2023: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rallied throughout all of Tuesday's market as traders couldn't help but be optimistic as corn prices were falling. The real question now in the hog complex is whether or not a bottom is being established. The market will still face many challenges in the months and years ahead to adapt to Prop12, but Tuesday's higher tone did spark some optimism throughout the hog sector. June lean hogs closed $4.75 higher at $80.82, July lean hogs closed $4.75 higher at $79.52 and August lean hogs closed $4.75 higher at $78.80. It was encouraging to see afternoon pork cutout values higher, which was largely thanks to a $6.39 jump in the belly and a $3.00 jump in the rib. Pork cutouts totaled 366.97 loads with 342.16 loads of pork cuts and 24.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.48, $83.68. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 5/25/2023: down $0.32, $80.48.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values rounding out the day higher and the futures complex seeing some support, packers could be more active in Wednesday's cash market.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cheaper Corn Sends Livestock Rallying

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a jolting day for the livestock complex as all three of the livestock markets are rallying thanks to the decline of corn prices. No cash cattle trade has developed yet and bids and asking prices won't likely be available until Wednesday. July corn is down 10 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 119.42 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though one would logically assume that corn prices would have little affect on the live cattle market, as fat cattle are nearly at the end of their feeding days, the live cattle market is indeed directly affected by corn prices. That being said, the live cattle market is rallying like the feeder cattle and lean hog complexes, as beef demand remains incredible, cash cattle prices continue to strive for higher price points and now corn prices are trading lower too. June live cattle are up $1.35 at $168.70, August live cattle are up $1.92 at $167.15 and October live cattle are up $1.75 at $171.35. No cash cattle trade has been reported at this point, and no business will likely be conducted until Wednesday or later. Feedlots are expected to again price their showlists higher.

Most of last week's negotiated cash cattle trade took place on Wednesday, but there was a little clean-up trade later on Thursday and Friday. Northern dressed cattle ranged from $280 to $287, but mostly sold at $285 to $286, which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted averages. Southern live cattle traded from $170 to $174, which was steady in Kansas but $1.00 higher in Texas.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.09 ($305.02) and select up $3.52 ($288.44) with a movement of 56 loads (33.62 loads of choice, 10.89 loads of select, 2.97 loads of trim and 8.28 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

What a way to dive into the new week for the feeder cattle complex! Corn prices posed quite the threat on the feeder cattle market last week, but with Tuesday's corn prices trending anywhere from $0.09 to $0.15 lower, the feeder cattle complex has nearly cracked in two as it explodes higher. August feeders are up $4.47 at $238.40, September feeders are up $4.35 at $241.45 and October feeders are up $4.17 at $243.20. One of the biggest driving factors for the feeder cattle complex in the weeks/months ahead will be moisture or the lack there of. Some regions of the U.S. have recently received good spring rains, but other pockets of the nation are still unbearably dry and cow-calf producers are continuing to be forced to liquidate their herds. Nevertheless, Tuesday's market has been exhilarating for feeders as the corn complex has finally given the market a break after last week's upward trend in corn.

LEAN HOGS:

The combination of cheaper corn prices amid a sharply higher midday pork cutout report is helping spur on higher trade throughout the lean hog complex. Yes, we know and understand that you can't put too much clout into the day's midday pork cutout value, as anything could happen between now and the afternoon's report release, but, at this point, the lean hog complex is running aggressively higher. June lean hogs are up $4.07 at $80.15, July lean hogs are up $4.75 at $79.52 and August lean hogs are up $4.75 at $78.80. The market still has plenty of hurdles to navigate in the months ahead as the ruling on Prop 12 will gravely affect the entire lean hog complex, but Tuesday's higher tone does make one wonder if a bottom in the market is being found.

The projected lean hog index for May 29 is down $0.40 at $80.08 and the actual index for May 25 is down $0.32 at $80.48. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $75.11, ranging from $74.00 to $81.00 on 3,915 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.82. Pork cutouts total 171.59 loads with 158.44 loads of pork cuts and 13.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.71, $86.91.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders May Begin Week With Caution

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Higher cash cattle last week propelled live cattle futures to new contract highs. It is amazing to see strong beef demand as prices continue to rise at the retail and food service level. Consumers continue to work beef into their food budget. Tightening beef supplies keep packers needing to step up to the plate. There was a report that some packers had purchased cattle for delivery 2 to 3 weeks out and then took them for delivery a couple days later as they needed cattle. This may limit the amount of cattle that are purchased and available with time. Boxed beef was strong Friday with choice up $3.99 and select up $0.38. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding 2,003 long futures, bringing their net-long futures position to 101,040 contracts. Feeder cattle long positions increased by 2,085 contracts to a net long 15,987 futures contracts.

Hogs continued the freefall Friday, unable to find a bottom or even trigger any short-covering into the weekend. Cash hogs fell $3.77 on the National Direct Afternoon report to a weighted average of $75.69. The June hog contract continues to fall to keep in line with cash as the contract has about two weeks remaining to trade. It was a brutal week without any sign of support. Early weaned pigs fell to a cash weighted average of $10.05 last week and about one fourth of what they were a year ago. Pork cutouts were higher, increasing $1.01, but that may have little influence on the market. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding 4,702 contracts to their short positions, bringing the total net-short position total to 28,160 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong boxed beef and tighter supply should continue to support the market.	1)	Memorial Day is past, and the question is whether beef demand will be able to maintain the same level it has been.
2)	Cattle are being pulled ahead that were purchased for deferred delivery, indicating packers are short-bought and could be more aggressive again this week.	2)	At some point, high prices will cure high prices and even though beef supplies are tight, demand may slow.
3)	There has been some talk of the possibility of sows being euthanized as they not being worth much along with the low prices of early weaned and feeder pigs. This would tighten supply in the future.	3)	Hog futures just cannot find a bottom and cash continues to decline. There is no indication of support.
4)	Hog futures are severely oversold and could have a price bounce moving into the end of the month.	4)	Lower hog prices are not being reflected in stores as retail prices remain higher due to increased wages, trucking, driver availability, etc. This keeps demand from improving as consumers still see higher prices.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - June, August Live Cattle Contracts Score New Highs Ahead of Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle complex rounded out the week strong while the lean hog and feeder cattle markets both closed lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.77 with a weighted average of $75.69 on 4,185 head. July corn is up 13 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 328.69 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $1.63, August live cattle up $0.88; August feeder cattle down $1.17, September feeder cattle down $0.85; June lean hogs down $6.95, July lean hogs down $8.35; July corn up $0.50, September corn up $0.35.

**The markets will be closed on Monday, May 29, for Memorial Day. Regular DTN commentary will resume on Tuesday, May 30.**

LIVE CATTLE:

Between new contract highs throughout the futures market, a rallying cash cattle complex and continued support from consumers -- it was a near perfect week for cattlemen. More than anything, the two factors that continue to drive this market higher are tight supplies and unwavering beef demand. When looking to the second half the year, supplies will likely grow even thinner and demand should continue to be a strong supporter. June live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $167.35, August live cattle closed $0.40 higher at $165.17 and October live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $169.60. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for $171 which is mostly steady in Kansas but $1.00 higher in Texas, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $285 to $286, which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted averages.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 4,000 head less than week go and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 625,000 head, 17,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice up $3.99 ($303.93) and select up $0.38 ($284.92) with a movement of 89 loads (61.80 loads of choice, 12.38 loads of select, 7.43 loads of trim and 7.60 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $301.36 (up $1.56 from last week) and select cuts averaged $283.59 (down $0.31 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 546 loads.

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Front-end supplies of market-ready cattle are thin and that could likely mean that packers need to be active and aggressive in next week's market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the nearby corn contracts closing $0.13 to $0.18 higher it's not surprising to see that the feeder cattle contracts rounded out the day lower. August feeders closed $0.77 lower at $233.92, September feeders closed $0.97 lower at $237.10 and October feeders closed $1.02 lower at $239.02. The market would have loved to rally alongside the live cattle contracts, but with corn making big moves, traders opted to error on the side of caution in Friday's market. Thankfully, feeder cattle demand remains tireless, which could help reinvigorate higher trade next week of corn prices don't trade much higher. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers traded $3.00 to $8.00 higher, while feeder heifers sold $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold $6.00 to $12.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $1.00 to $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 25: up $1.72, $209.86.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex's hardship continued through all of Friday's trade as the market faded to even lower levels. Yes, the afternoon carcass price did close higher, but stronger pork cutout values isn't enough to comfort traders in this depressed marketplace. Heading into next week's market, the lingering question will remain: Where is the bottom at? June lean hogs closed $1.57 lower at $76.07, July lean hogs closed $2.47 lower at $74.77 and August lean hogs closed $2.90 lower at $74.05. Pork cutouts totaled 204.09 loads with 184.13 loads of pork cuts and 19.96 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.01, $82.20. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 457,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a week ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 20,000 head. Thursday's slaughter was revised to 468,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 24: up $0.13, $80.80.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With demand continuing to be an issue for the hog complex, traders will likely ease their way into the market before buying too aggressively in the cash sector.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Press Onward While Feeders Pause Because of Corn

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a mixed marketplace for the livestock sector as the live cattle market continues to charge onward and forward, but both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets trading lower. Higher corn prices are keeping the feeder cattle contracts from rallying alongside the live cattle market. July corn is up 15 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $7.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 294.82 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's yet another rallying, powerful day for the live cattle complex as not only are all the contracts trading higher, but the June, August and October 2023 contracts are all currently trading at new contract highs. Again, the main driver of the market's tremendous success this week is the onset of higher cash cattle prices. Early in the week, traders were reluctant to do much of anything in the market ahead of seeing what cash cattle trade would amount to, but when prices launched $1.00 to $5.00 higher, traders reacted. The other positive component to Friday's market is the fact that boxed beef prices are higher. Seeing seasonal pressure is expected around the Memorial Day holiday, and prices have regressed as of late, but the higher note come Friday morning is sitting well with traders. Heading into Friday afternoon, higher corn prices could put a damper on the market's positive tone, but then again, traders could just elected to focus on the positives of this week's trade and let next week's market discern how corn prices should affect the live cattle market. No new cash cattle trade has been reported, and at this time is looking like the week's business is essentially done with. June live cattle are up $0.17 at $167.45, August live cattle are up $0.07 at $164.82 and October live cattle are up $0.45 at $169.50.

Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $171, which is steady in Kansas but $1.00 higher in Texas, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for mostly $285 to $286, which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.95 ($303.89) and select up $0.21 ($284.75) with a movement of 62 loads (42.37 loads of choice, 9.39 loads of select, 4.69 loads of trim and 5.96 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market would love to continue to trade higher along side the rallying live cattle complex, but the corn market's $0.14 to $0.16 rally has stopped the feeder rally dead in its tracks. August feeders are down $0.82 at $233.87, September feeders are down $1.05 at $237.02 and October feeders are down $1.12 at $238.92. looking past a minor $0.01 to $0.05 rally is one thing, but when corn prices are rallying as aggressively as they are, feeder cattle market traders want to gain a better understanding of the market's trajectory before they do much of anything else. With the new corn crop still subject to any and all weather influences, corn prices can swing dramatically during this time of year.

LEAN HOGS:

It's another grim and dreary day for the lean hog complex as prices continue to flounder lower. June lean hogs are down $0.90 at $76.75, July lean hogs are down $1.47 at $75.72 and August lean hogs are down $1.92 at $75.02. Pork cutout values may be up slightly, but we know that anything could happen to the afternoon's carcass price, and that, even if afternoon pork cutout values do close higher, it still won't likely be know support to encourage traders. Until the futures complex establishes some sort of a bottom in this market, continued dramatic downward pressure is likely.

The projected lean hog index for May 25 is down $0.32 at $80.48, and the actual index for May 24 is up $0.13 at $80.80. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.63 with a weighted average price of $75.36, ranging from $74.00 to $87.00 on 3,940 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.65. Pork cutouts total 107.80 loads with 94.65 loads of pork cuts and 13.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.54, $83.73.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders May Take Profits Ahead of Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures pushed to new contract highs across the board, except for August, which fell just shy of the mid-April high. That may be accomplished Friday. However, with a three-day weekend coming up, trade may be two-sided today as some liquidation may take place since, many times, traders like to lighten up their positions ahead of an extended weekend. Higher cash this week provided the support the market needed to continue the trend higher. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.64 and select up $0.75. Weekly export sales totaled 18,300 metric tons (mt), up 5% from the previous week, providing some of the support seen Thursday. Some cash business will be conducted Friday, but it will be in line with trade so far this week. August feeder cattle are now the lead month. Futures were on a roller coaster Thursday, posting significant losses at some point, only to close slightly higher. The overnight strength of corn and extended weekend positioning may put some pressure on futures.

Hog futures were basically in a freefall again Thursday. Traders who buy into the market attempting to try and pick the bottom continue to get run over. Reduced cash and mediocre exports provided no support. Packers did not need to chase after supply as the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.73. Weekly export sales totaled 29,200 mt, down 8% from the previous week. Cutouts were a bright spot, increasing $0.32, but that did little to stem the tide. Some short-covering could take place ahead of the weekend, but funds are content to hold a large, net-short position.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs in live cattle futures continue to provide the confidence needed for traders to continue to support the market.	1)	Beef packer margins are below last year and significantly below the three-year average. Packers may slow slaughter to improve their profits.
2)	Higher cash cattle this week indicates packers did not have sufficient on hand even for reduced slaughter due to the holiday weekend. This could point to higher cash next week.	2)	There may be some profit-taking Friday ahead of the Memorial Day weekend, which could put some pressure on cattle futures.
3)	Low pork prices should stimulate greater demand at some point as consumers wrestle with higher food prices.	3)	New lows in hogs kept selling pressure on the market. Packers bid lower this week but were still able to get the hogs they needed.
4)	The hog market is oversold, and some short-covering might take place ahead of the weekend.	4)	Uncertainty over the impact of Prop 12 come July keeps traders bearish on the hog market.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - June and August Live Cattle Contracts Score New Contract Highs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts rallied throughout Thursday's market as success in the cash sector has invigorated traders. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex continues to flounder as it looks for support and for a market bottom. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.73 with a weighted average price of $79.46 on 7,796 head. July corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 41.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The power of the cash cattle market lived on through Thursday's hours as, not only did all the live cattle contracts close higher, but the June and August live cattle contracts carved out new contracts highs before the day was over. It's becoming more apparent just how tight front-end supplies really are as this week's cash cattle market was again able to rally because packers were/are short bought. The cash market didn't see much action through Thursday's hours as trade is essentially done with, but more cleanup trade could develop ahead of the weekend. A few bids of $285 to $285 were again offered in Nebraska, but feedlots let them sit unattended. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $171, which is steady in Kansas but $1.00 higher in Texas, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for mostly $285 to $286, which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. June live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $167.30, August live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $164.77 and October live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $169.02. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. Wednesday's cattle slaughter was revised to 122,000 head.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending May 13, steers averaged 891 pounds, which is 4 pounds less than the previous week but steady with a year ago. Meanwhile, heifers during the same week averaged 820 pounds, which is 3 pounds less than the previous week and one pounds less than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 18,300 mt for 2023 were up 5% from the previous week and 15% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (5,500 mt), South Korea (3,800 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.64 ($299.94) and select up $0.75 ($284.54) with a movement of 104 loads (68.43 loads of choice, 28.25 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.83 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Some more cleanup trade could develop on Friday, but it's likely that feedlots hold onto the cattle they have left on showlists and price them higher next week as opposed to selling more late this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed higher yet again Thursday afternoon as the market continues to thrive on excellent feeder cattle interest and the support from the live cattle/cash cattle market. It also helped that corn prices closed mostly lower Thursday afternoon, which could mean that Friday's market is given the green light to trade higher as the pressures from the corn complex have seemed to die down somewhat for the week. August feeders closed $0.17 higher at $234.70, September feeders closed $0.45 higher at $238.07 and October feeders closed $0.47 higher at $240.05. I'd also like to note that it's already becoming hard to find sales across the country with enough feeder cattle offered to say an accurate market test was established. I tend to believe that there are scarcely fewer calves/feeders out there than what the market realizes. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 24: up $0.78, $208.14.

LEAN HOGS:

The bloodbath of Thursday's market didn't end until the market closed for the lean hog complex. The contracts floundered anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 lower as, technically speaking, traders don't know where the bottom on this market is yet. Pork demand has been touch and go, and yes Thursday's export report wasn't anything overly exciting, but even so, the pressure seen throughout the futures makes tracking the lean hog complex a brutal chore. June lean hogs closed $2.15 lower at $77.65, July lean hogs closed $3.57 lower at $77.25 and August lean hogs closed $3.45 lower at $76.95. Pork cutout values were able to close mildly higher, but that had no influence on the contracts ahead of closing. Pork cutouts totaled 249.15 loads with 223.40 loads of pork cuts and 25.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.32, $81.19. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 477,000 head, 7,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 23: up $0.58, $80.67.

Pork net sales of 29,200 mt for 2023 were down 8% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,400 mt), Japan (4,400 mt) and South Korea (4,400 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With how pitiful the market has been this week for the lean hog complex, it's very unlikely that the cash market sees much interest come Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Support Continues to Drive Cattle Prices Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are still trading higher as the markets continue to thrive on Wednesday's cash cattle market success. Thursday's export report did little for live cattle or lean hog markets. July corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 117.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Many of the nearby live cattle contracts are trading at new contract highs as the market continues to rally on Wednesday's strong performance in the cash cattle sector. It's also helpful that traders were greeted with a higher midday boxed beef report as buyers continue to show impeccable demand at the meat counter. Not new cash cattle trade has been reported at this point, but more cleanup trade is likely. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists remains around $173 in the South and $288 in the North. June live cattle are up $0.67 at $166.77, August live cattle are up $0.27 at $164.40 and October live cattle are up $0.32 at $168.70.

So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $171, which is steady in Kansas but $1.00 higher in Texas, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for mostly $285 to $286, which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

Beef net sales of 18,300 mt for 2023 were up 5% from the previous week and 15% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (5,500 mt), South Korea (3,800 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.64 ($298.94) and select up $1.14 ($284.93) with a movement of 56 loads (36.50 loads of choice, 16.80 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 2.40 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market is rallying strong into Thursday's noon hour as the market doesn't mind the mild rally taking place in the corn complex given the strong support it's recently received from the live cattle/cash cattle markets and from the tremendous interest from buyers in the countryside. The stronger the live cattle complex can run, the more opportunities that come to mind for the feeder cattle complex, as feeder cattle buyers simply possess more options in market their fats. August feeders are up $0.17 at $234.67, September feeders are up $0.42 at $238.05 and October feeders are up $0.47 at $240.05.

LEAN HOGS:

One might as well be cutting trees and yelling "timber," because the lean hog complex is seeming to fall with that type of dramatic nature. With nothing seeming to comfort the complex, one begins to wonder where the bottom is. At this point, I think it's safe to say that it hasn't been found as Thursday's market is yet again pressured and aggressively so as nearby contracts are falling $1.00 to $2.00 lower. June lean hogs are down $1.32 at $78.45, July lean hogs are down $2.80 at $78.02 and August lean hogs are down $2.80 at $77.57.

The projected lean hog index for May 24 is up $0.13 at $80.80, and the actual index for May 23 is up $0.58 at $80.67. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.38 with a weighted average price of $78.99, ranging from $73.00 to $85.00 on 6,924 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.32. Pork cutouts total 134.70 loads with 113.29 loads of pork cuts and 21.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.91, $83.78.

Pork net sales of 29,200 mt for 2023 were down 8% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,400 mt), Japan (4,400 mt) and South Korea (4,400 mt).

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Most Cash Business May Wrap Up The Day

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though boxed beef prices have been more variable lately, it has not had much impact on overall demand and the need for cattle to be slaughtered. Even with substantially higher retail beef prices, consumers continue to prefer beef. Even with tighter cattle numbers, packers are maintaining slaughter pace to meet demand. Cattle remain available at a price. Feedlots can hold onto cattle longer due to lighter weights if they choose to. That allows them to hold out for steady to higher prices and that is what took place this week. Southern cattle traded steady to $1.00 higher while Northern dressed cattle traded $4.00 to $5.00 higher. Boxed beef prices closed mixed with choice down $2.44 and select up $2.51. Packers may want to finish up with most of their purchases Thursday. Feeder cattle are in demand as buyers at auctions continue to write larger checks to purchase available animals.

June hogs are trying to anticipate and remain close to the CME Lean Hog Index as the contract moves closer to settlement. The large premium it once had in anticipation of stronger prices moving into the summer has quickly eroded. Cash has taken a turn for the worse this week as the National Afternoon Hog report showed a loss of $1.64 Wednesday. Packers have not been aggressive this week as they are reducing purchases ahead of the holiday weekend. Cutout values also took a hit with the price down $2.63. Packers are pushing slaughter this week to prepare for plants being dark Monday. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 32,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher cash this week provided another positive shot in the arm for feedlots and for traders to buy futures more aggressively.	1)	Beef demand may slow somewhat after Memorial Day, which could result in prices reaching a threshold.
2)	Front-month June cattle and contracts in 2024 made new highs yesterday with other contracts poised to make new highs. This continues to provide confidence to traders to buy into the market.	2)	With prices for feeder cattle getting possibly a little out of hand, buyers might just say enough is enough, even though the overall market remains strong.
3)	Hog futures are in line with cash, carrying no premium. Any strength of cash after the holiday weekend should be reflected in futures.	3)	Hogs continue to remain plentiful, leaving packers with sufficient available supply without having to continue to bid up for it.
4)	There may be some short-covering Thursday as many traders will wind down for the Memorial Day weekend a day early and do not want to have to think about their positions during the holiday.	4)	Packers may not be aggressive again Thursday as they prepare for the extended weekend and plants being closed on Monday.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Prices Run $1.00 to $5.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Wednesday's cattle contracts have to give the cash cattle market all the glory as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts were able to close higher thanks to the $1.00 to $5.00 rally seen in cash prices. More trade should develop on Thursday, but prices are likely set at this point. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.64 with a weighted average price of $82.19 on 12,525 head. July corn is up 9 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 255.59 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

This week's cash market was a sweet, sweet victory for feedlots! With front-end market-ready supplies of cattle being as thin as they are, packers were chomping at the bit Wednesday morning to get cattle bought and committed. Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $171 which is steady in Kansas but $1.00 higher in Texas, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for mostly $285 to $286, which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Wednesday's exceptional performance in the cash sector was yet again an example of how the cash cattle market can influence the futures complex as traders collectively ran the contracts higher upon seeing stronger cash sales. June live cattle closed $1.82 higher at $166.10, August live cattle closed $1.55 higher at $164.12 and October live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $168.37. It was exciting to see the June live cattle contract carve out yet another new contract high by the day's end. Feedlots deserve another pat on the back after accomplishing such a feat in the cash market because, without their gumption and desire to push the market higher in the countryside, the market wouldn't likely be rallying like it is. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.44 ($298.30) and select up $2.51 ($283.79) with a movement of 133 loads (95.37 loads of choice, 21.33 loads of select, 3.47 loads of trim and 13.03 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that prices have traded in both regions, it's likely that they now remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeders decided that, so long as the cash cattle market was going to rally, they too could look higher corn prices dead in the eye and trade higher as well. It was a good day for the feeder cattle market as promising demand sent the feeder cattle contracts higher through closing even though the nearby corn prices closed $0.03 to $0.09 higher. August feeders closed $1.05 higher at $234.52, September feeders closed $0.87 higher at $237.62 and October feeders closed $0.90 higher at $239.57. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 600 to 925 pounds sold $8.00 to $12.00 higher. Steer calves weighing 400 to 600 pounds sold $20.00 to $30.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 700 to 875 pounds sold $8.00 to $12.00 higher and heifer calves weighing between 500 and 700 pounds sold $20.00 to $30.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 78%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 23: up $0.60, $207.36.

LEAN HOGS:

The cattle complex's excitement didn't trickle into the lean hog market, but the deferred contracts did round out the day modestly higher. Volatile pork cutout values continue to keep the nearby contracts on edge, and with Wednesday's closing cutout report, one can see why. Packers moderately supported the cash hog market but not to the point where prices closed any higher but seeing a volume of 12,000 head plus trade is still a win. June lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $79.80, July lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $80.82 and August lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $80.40. Once again, the carcass value close lower because of the belly's volatility as it alone dropped $11.27. The loin fell $1.25 lower, and hams fell $2.02 lower, but those are easier price drops to stomach as opposed to the belly's performance. Pork cutouts totaled 342.91 loads with 305.94 loads of pork cuts and 36.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.63, $80.87. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head, 6,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 22: up $0.52, $80.09.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers could opt to buy a few more hogs in Thursday's market, but then again, they could decide to let the rest of the week pass by as they were somewhat active in Wednesday's market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Trades Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed Wednesday morning as both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets celebrate the cash cattle market's success of trading cattle $1.00 to $4.00 higher, but the lean hog market is still trading mixed. More cash cattle trade should develop this afternoon as the week's volume has been light so far. July corn is up 9 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 287.63 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Cash cattle sales are starting to trickle in higher midday Wednesday. There's been a light movement of cattle traded in the South at $171, which is steady in Kansas but $1.00 higher in Texas, and there's been some dressed trade reported in Nebraska at $284 to $285, which is $3.00 to $4.00 higher than last week's weighted averages. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists remain at $174 live and $287 dressed. This week's market is yet again a perfect of example of how the futures complex can react when cash leads the way. Without feedlots tenacity and direction, it's likely that the futures contracts would have aimlessly wandered throughout the week trading steady to somewhat lower. June live cattle are up $1.72 at $166.00, August live cattle are up $1.50 at $164.05 and October live cattle are up $1.22 at $168.40.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.37 ($299.37) and select up $2.10 ($283.38) with a movement of 81 loads (53.29 loads of choice, 17.07 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.35 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Yes, corn prices may be trading $0.06 to $0.10 higher, but the feeder cattle market is thrilled to be seeing the cash cattle complex trading $1.00 to $4.00 higher and is choosing to rally on that positive news. August feeders are up $0.77 at $234.20, September feeders are up $0.85 at $234.32 and October feeders are up $0.90 at $239.57. After carving out a new high in the spot August contract last week, the complex has traded merely sideways. But with the combination of higher cash cattle prices and impeccable feeder cattle demand in the countryside, feeders could challenge that price point if support persists through Friday.

LEAN HOGS:

It's again a dicey market for the lean hog complex as the nearby contracts are reluctant to look at the day's positive fundamentals and trade higher all while watching the deferred contracts trade mildly higher. June lean hogs are down $0.77 at $79.90, July lean hogs are down $0.17 at $80.82 and August lean hogs are down $0.32 at $80.10. It is encouraging, however, to see packers already buying (and aggressively so in terms of price) in the cash market. I was skeptical of how the cash market would be treated this week after packers procured a large number of hogs last week. But, obviously, packers are still somewhat short bought and are having to pay the higher prices the market is demanding in order to secure the numbers they need.

The projected lean hog index for May 23 is up $0.58 at $80.67 and the actual index for May 22 is up $0.52 at $80.09. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $3.36 with a weighted average of $79.37, ranging from $73.00 to $87.50 on 7,885 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.09. Pork cutouts total 201.78 loads with 173.60 loads of pork cuts and 28.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.25, $81.25.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Weakness May Carry Over

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle tried to extend gains with a higher opening Tuesday, but that ran out of steam, falling back throughout the day. Feeder cattle followed a similar pattern, except for May posting triple-digit gains. Traders did not have anything to go on as cash was quiet with no indication of bids or offers. The upcoming Memorial Day weekend may keep packers from being aggressive and they will not want to pay higher money for cattle. They may not need cattle as usual due to the holiday. They also have some already purchased ahead, which may leave them with the upper hand. Boxed beef prices closed lower with choice down $3.16 and select down $2.15, which does not help the situation.

Hogs cannot find any traction, continuing to make new contract lows. Stronger cash Tuesday was offset by weakness of cutouts. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.59, which was impressive given the large decline Monday. Cutouts showed weakness with values down $1.27. The uncertainty surrounding the market keeps bearish traders in control. Fundamentals are providing no solid support, leaving lower as the path of least resistance. The market is oversold, but that is not enough cause for traders to cover short positions.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle numbers continue to tighten, which should continue to provide support to the market.	1)	Demand may be showing some sign of slowing as boxed beef took a hit Tuesday. Consumers may have reached a threshold.
2)	So far, demand has not been impacted to any significant degree due to higher retail prices. Consumers prefer beef.	2)	Traders may be anticipating a decrease in cash cattle this week and are not waiting to see the actual results.
3)	Hog futures might see some short-covering into the three-day weekend as the market is oversold.	3)	Continued new contract lows in hogs keep traders from being aggressive buyers and funds continued sellers.
4)	June hog futures are becoming closely in line with the index, which should limit further downside as most of the premium has been taken out of the market.	4)	Lower prices have not stimulated demand sufficiently to consistently support pork cutouts.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Market Lets Time Pass By

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex had a mostly uneventful day as the market's focus was corn prices, although a little uncertainty still looms about the nation's economic state and how government will handle the debt ceiling. Wednesday could be more eventful as cash cattle bids could begin to develop. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.59 with a weighted average of $76.01 on 4,137 head. July corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 231.07 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market saw little action throughout the day as no cash cattle trade developed and as traders let the market sink lower as higher corn prices took center stage in their mind. Boxed beef prices are seeing some seasonal pressure but it's also encouraging to see that the day's movement totaled 126 loads as that indicates retailers are still needing product, they just want it at a slightly cheaper price. June live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $164.27, August live cattle closed $1.02 lower at $162.57 and October live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $167.17. No bids or asking prices were shared throughout the day as the cash market was extremely quiet. This week's trade could be delayed until Wednesday afternoon, or even potentially Thursday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.16 ($300.74) and select down $2.15 ($281.28) with a movement of 126 loads (71.88 loads of choice, 28.78 loads of select, 13.94 loads of trim and 11.29 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. This week's cash cattle market is a tough one to call. On one hand, feedlots possess every tool necessary to get at least steady price if not even add $1.00 or $2.00 to the market, but on the other hand, with the Memorial Day weekend nearing, packers will run lighter kills and need less cattle in the immediate future.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market would love nothing more than for the chance to continue to trade higher as demand throughout the countryside is utterly amazing, but the corn market's pesky rally over the last two days has hindered the market's ability to do so. August feeders closed $1.42 lower at $233.47, September feeders closed $1.10 lower at $236.75 and October feeders closed $0.85 lower at $238.67. The feeder cattle market needs either the cash cattle complex to trade higher, which with lend it the support necessary to trade higher, or it needs the corn market to trade at least steady if not somewhat lower, at which point its market could again reflect the impeccable demand that the countryside is showcasing.

At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers sold $4.00 to $8.00 higher, with instances up to $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $8.00 to $10.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 77%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 22: up $2.06, $206.76.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex wasn't too keen on the idea of charging higher when corn prices rounded out the day $0.06 to $0.07 higher. June lean hogs closed $1.15 lower at $80.67, July lean hogs closed $1.17 lower at $80.97 and August lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $80.42. It was somewhat surprising to see cash prices up slightly, but then again, with the recent decline in carcass weights, packers' short-bought position is seeming to catch them in a tighter position than what they had hoped for. Pork cutout values closed lower with the main culprit of the carcass's decline being the ham which fell $3.79 lower. It's tough saying what Wednesday's market will bring as the market would like to establish a bottom, but at this point it's hard pinpointing where that price point is. Pork cutouts totaled 317.84 loads with 293.00 loads of pork cuts and 24.84 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.27, $83.50. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head, 11,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 19: up $0.44, $79.57.

WEDNEDSAY'S HOG CALL: Slightly higher. Even though pork cutout values closed lower, I'm led to believe that cash prices could be higher on Wednesday given that processing speeds have been vigorous and that packers seem to still be somewhat short bought. 

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Corn Keeps Feeders Depressed and Live Cattle Remain Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex has traded in a rather uneventful manner Tuesday morning, as economic concerns keep all markets on edge while they also monitor developments in the corn complex. No cash cattle trade has developed at this point and trade won't likely begin until Wednesday or Thursday of this week. July corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.71 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex seems rather content with letting time pass by as traders patiently wait to see what this week's cash cattle market will amount to. Once again, the market's nearby contracts are trading lower while the deferred months post mild gains, but more than anything, traders are kicked back, letting time tick by as they wait to see what develops in the cash sectors later this week. June live cattle are down $0.25 at $164.80, August live cattle are down $0.42 at $163.17 and October live cattle are down $0.42 at $167.70. No bids or asking prices are available at this time, and packer interest won't likely develop until Wednesday, or potentially even Thursday.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.18 ($304.08) and select down $1.52 ($281.91) with a movement of 58 loads (29.02 loads of choice, 14.38 loads of select, 7.55 loads of trim and 6.65 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the nearby live cattle contracts not lending the feeder cattle market any support, and with corn prices trending mildly higher, feeders are once again trading lower. August feeders are down $0.95 at $233.95, September feeders are down $0.70 at $237.15 and October feeders are down $0.47 at $239.05. Regardless of whether one likes to admit it or not, the feeder cattle market is, to some extent, a weather market right now. The more moisture the countryside can develop the better in ranchers' minds. Demand continues to be robust as buyers want to capitalize on this strong market while the opportunity lasts, and I was amazed as, just Monday afternoon, the CME Feeder Cattle Index closed $2.34 higher at $204.70. Demand isn't a concern in feeders right now.

LEAN HOGS:

It almost seems as if someone called out "bombs away" before Tuesday's market opened as the lean hog complex continues to wander aimlessly to new lows. The market's pressure is somewhat to blame on higher corn prices mixed with external economic pressures as the government continues to talk about what they're going to do with the nation's debt ceiling. In the meantime, traders don't seem overly concerned about whatever develops fundamentally, as the technical pressures are enough to continue to send the contracts lower. June lean hogs are down $1.25 at $80.57, July lean hogs are down $1.62 at $80.52 and August lean hogs are down $0.92 at $79.40.

The projected lean hog index for May 22 is up $0.52 at $80.09, and the actual index for May 19 is up $0.44 at $79.57. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.59 with a weighted average of $76.01, ranging from $74.00 to $89.00 on 4,137 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.33. Pork cutouts total 164.29 loads with 150.84 loads of pork cuts and 13.45 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.14, $84.91.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The knee-jerk reaction to an atypical BSE case discovered in South Carolina was news that caused initial selling in the cattle Monday. There was no threat in this finding as it was atypical and not impacting the export market. But traders wanted news to trade, and this was some news. Early expectations are for cash to trade steady Tuesday as packers may slow slaughter this week in preparation for Memorial Day. Boxed beef prices closed mixed Monday with choice up $2.80 and select down $0.51. Packers have been able to purchase cattle ahead with 24% of last week's purchases for deferred delivery. May feeder cattle go off the board Thursday with August holding a large premium to May, which may be a large gap to fill. However, the demand for feeder cattle is strong, which could support higher prices. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding to their long live cattle positions by 5,027 contracts, bringing their net-long futures to 99,037. They added 2,145 longs to feeder cattle, bringing their net-long futures position to 13,902.

Hogs cannot find a bottom as it seems either cash or cutouts do find solid support. Even stronger cash and cutouts Friday had no impact Monday. The indication of a significant decline in cash Monday put pressure on the market. Packers had no need to purchase hogs aggressively as slaughter will slow down this week. Funds continue to sell the rallies, resulting in new contract lows. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $3.91, eliminating the gains of last week. Cutouts were higher posting a gain of $0.39, but may have little impact on trade. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding 1,507 short futures contracts, pushing their net-short positions to 23,458 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle rebounded nicely off their lows Monday as traders digested the news of the BSE case over the weekend.	1)	High prices still have not slowed demand to any great extent. However, that may be near as consumers continue to deal with high food prices.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to be no worse than steady again this week, which should continue to provide support to the market.	2)	Packers may not be as aggressive this week as slaughter will be reduced due to the Memorial Day holiday.
3)	With grilling season coming into full swing, demand for pork should increase, keeping slaughter active.	3)	New contract lows in hog futures provides no indication of any technical support, leaving buyers less aggressive.
4)	Continued low prices will slow hog production, eventually tightening supply as sow farrowing is reduced.	4)	The uncertainty surrounding Prop 12 continues to linger in the market. This uncertainty leaves the market in a bearish posture.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Higher Corn Prices Kept Most Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Overall, it was an uneventful day for the livestock complex. Higher corn prices drove both the live cattle and lean hog markets lower, but phenomenal demand allowed for the feeder cattle contracts to still close higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.91 with a weighted average of $76.52 on 3,488 head. July corn is up 16 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 140.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex didn't do much throughout Monday's market as traders stewed over the onset of higher corn prices. The market did, however, close mixed with the nearby contracts ending slightly lower and the deferred contracts closing slightly higher. Traders are again going to look for support from the market's fundamentals as the futures complex is trading at the upper end of its three-month trading range. Feedlots are going to hard pressed to get cattle sold much better than steady as packers will be running lighter kills later this week and into early next week for the Memorial Day holiday. June live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $165.05, August live cattle closed $0.70 lower at $163.60 and October live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $168.15. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado but lower in Kansas and Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago but steady with a year ago.

Last week, Northern dressed deals had a full range of $275 to $282, generally $280 to mostly $282, which is steady to $2 higher than the previous week's weighted averages. Note that some of the cattle that were sold in Nebraska on Wednesday were shipped as early as Friday. Southern live deals had a range of $168 to $176, mostly $170, which is fully steady with the prior week's weighted averages. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 75,035 head. Of that, 76% (56,826 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 24% (18,209 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $2.80 ($303.90) and select down $0.51 ($283.43) with a movement of 95 loads (60.68 loads of choice, 14.80 loads of select, 6.22 loads of trim and 12.88 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It was telling in last week's market when packers were buying cattle on Wednesday and needing them delivered as soon as Friday. It's beyond evident that packers are short bought and that market-ready cattle are in short supply. But it's also likely that, with the Memorial Day holiday nearing, packers run lighter kill schedules this week, making it a coin toss on how cash cattle prices will fare.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Surprisingly enough, the feeder cattle complex was still able to close higher even though nearby corn prices rounded out the day $0.08 to $0.16 higher. Demand is the feeder cattle market's backbone right now and with feeder cattle/calves in short supply, prices are continuing to trade higher. The spot and nearby contracts suffered slightly through Monday's end, but all the deferred months closed mildly higher which is quite the feat when corn prices are rallying like they are. August feeders closed $0.20 lower at $234.90, September feeders closed $0.10 lower at $237.85 and October feeders closed $0.07 higher at $239.52. Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, at their midsession report, was reporting that feeder steers and heifers were selling $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 41%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 19: up $2.34, $204.70.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a pitiful Monday for the lean hog complex as traders continued to allow the contracts to drift lower through Monday's close -- not seeming to find sufficient support to merit a steady to somewhat higher close. June lean hogs closed $1.20 lower at $81.82, July lean hogs closed $0.97 lower at $82.15 and August lean hogs closed $1.20 lower at $80.30. Pork cutouts were able to close slightly higher as the $9.62 jump in the belly helped sway the carcass price to a positive end. But unfortunately, this also means that Tuesday's carcass value could be under pressure as the belly has been known for volatile swings. Pork cutouts total 288.15 loads with 264.00 loads of pork cuts and 24.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.39, $84.77. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head - 9,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than year ago. Friday's hog slaughter was revised to 458,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 18: up $0.71, $79.13.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Hog prices were sharply lower Monday afternoon which could either mean that packers bought aggressively enough last week to avoid having to participate much in this week's market, or prices could have been lower on Monday simply because packers don't usually participate much in the cash sector on Mondays until they can see how nearby demand is going to shape up.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Higher Corn Prices Pressure Livestock

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly lower heading into Monday afternoon as the market is reacting negatively to the onset of higher corn prices. If corn prices cool off, cattle contracts could begin to trade steady as they could look to last Friday's Cattle on Feed report for support; but so much is hinging on what corn prices do this week. July corn is up 14 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 97.23 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is trading timidly. Traders are cautious as corn prices jumped early Monday and they are chewing over last Friday's news that a five-year old cow in South Carolina was found to have had an atypical case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE). Thankfully the cow never made it into the processing houses and was condemned after testing, therefore posing no threat to the food supply chain. But even so, traders like "news" to trade, and the combination of Friday's announcement mixed with higher corn prices seems to be offsetting last week's advancements in the cash market and the neutral to somewhat supportive Cattle on Feed report released Friday afternoon. June live cattle are down $0.97 at $164.75, August live cattle are down $0.95 at $163.35 and October live cattle are down $0.50 at $167.95. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado but lower in Kansas and Texas.

Last week Northern dressed deals had a full range of $275 to $282, generally $280 to mostly $282, which is steady to $2 higher than the previous week's weighted averages. Note that some of the cattle that were sold in Nebraska on Wednesday were shipped as early as Friday. Southern live deals had a range of $168 to $176, mostly $170, which is fully steady with the prior week's weighted averages. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 75,035 head. Of that 76% (56,826 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 24% (18,209 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.62 ($301.72) and select up $1.40 ($285.34) with a movement of 40 loads (26.52 loads of choice, 7.27 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.14 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With corn prices jumping $0.07 to $0.14 higher, the feeder cattle contracts are seeming to grumble as they trade lower into Monday's noon hour. May feeders are up $0.32 at $206.60, August feeders are down $1.05 at $234.05 and September feeders are down $0.87 at $237.07. If corn prices stabilize and begin to trade steady, then feeders stand a chance at trading higher. But until there's a break in corn, feeders will likely be under pressure.

LEAN HOGS:

It's another bitter day in the lean hog complex as the futures continue to trade lower. Some of the market's weakness likely stems from the onset of higher corn prices, which continues to pressure producers' thin bottom line. Not to mention, there's still a level of uncertainty about how the market will be shaken with the Prop. 12 ruling. Needless to say, the market has plenty of negative factors to sort through, and it could desperately use some positive support. June lean hogs are down $0.67 at $82.35, July lean hogs are down $0.55 at $82.55 and August lean hogs are down $0.72 at $80.80.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/19/2023 is up $0.44 at $79.57 and the actual index for 5/18/2023 is up $0.71 at $79.13. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $4.10 with a weighted average of $75.42, ranging from $75.00 to $83.00 on 3,160 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.02. Pork cutouts total 145.89 loads with 129.48 loads of pork cuts and 16.42 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.30, $85.68.