GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is once again trading mixed as the cattle contracts muster up mild support while the lean hog contracts continue to trade lower. Friday's WASDE report was again supportive to the cattle complex, but shared mixed news for hog producers, who unfortunately have endured a tough week already. July corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 73.75 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher into Friday's noon hour as the market is thankful for the rather supportive WASDE report that was just shared. June live cattle are up $0.70 at $163.65, August live cattle are up $0.90 at $161.67 and October live cattle are up $0.82 at $165.37. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any new trade develop and at this point it looks like the week's business is essentially done. So far throughout the week Southern live cattle have traded for $170, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for mostly $280, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $172 in the South and $282 in the North.
Friday's WASDE Report was rather favorable to the cattle and beef markets again this month. Beef production for 2023 was raised by 146 million pounds as both fed cattle and non-fed cattle slaughter speeds have been more aggressive than originally assumed. Thankfully this isn't expected to hinder quarterly steer prices, however. For the remaining three quarters of the year, every single quarter saw a higher anticipated price point than what April's WASDE report shared. The second quarter is now expected to average $172 (up $3.00); the third quarter is now expected to average $164 (up $2.00); and the fourth quarter is expected to average $169 (up $2.00). 2023 beef imports were increased by one million pounds, but 2023 beef exports rose by 89 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.73 ($306.45) and select up $0.16 ($284.74) with a movement of 73 loads (49.80 loads of choice, 11.95 loads of select, 4.72 loads of trim and 6.45 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With corn prices continuing to trend lower, the feeder cattle complex is trading fully higher into Friday's noon hour. It's helping that the live cattle complex is also trading higher, but more than anything feeder's support is stemming from the descent of corn prices. May feeders are up $0.60 at $204.72, August feeders are up $0.72 at $226.80 and September feeders are up $0.77 at $230.07. Friday's WASDE report did indicate quarterly steer prices for 2023 should continue to trek higher, which bodes well for a strong feeder cattle market.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex has established a new sideways trading range at the bottom of the market's support plane. Questions about demand and marketability remain a concern, especially with Thursday's SCOTUS announcement regarding Prop 12. June lean hogs are down $0.52 at $83.40, July lean hogs are down $0.62 at $84.50 and August lean hogs are down $0.95 at $85.42. One positive thing about Friday's WASDE report is that international demand is expected to remain strong, and exports should remain a viable market.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/11/2023 is up $0.51 at $75.91, and the actual index for 5/10/2023 is up $0.33 at $75.40. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.63 with a weighted average of $72.96, ranging from $68.00 to $76.00 on 2,374 head and a five-day rolling average of $75.75. Pork cutouts total 117.50 loads with 104.40 loads of pork cuts and 13.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.62, $83.84.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets. 2023 pork production was raised by 21 million pounds based on recent slaughter data. Unfortunately, quarterly price projections were pulled back from April's WASDE report. Barrow and gilt prices in the second quarter are expected to average $56 (down $4.00); prices in the third quarter are expected to average $60 (down $7.00); and prices in the fourth quarter are expected to average $55 ($down $7.00). 2023 pork imports were raised by four million pounds, but 2023 pork exports were increased by 123 million pounds.
No comments:
Post a Comment