GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the feeder cattle and lean hog markets are rallying into Monday's noon hour, but the live cattle complex is showing some skepticism. Corn prices will be a big determining factor in whether or not both the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts are able to keep their momentum through Monday's end. July corn is up 8 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 36.12 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex isn't as confident as feeder cattle are Monday morning as its market is trading on both sides of steady. Traders thoroughly understand the market's strong fundamentals but can't help but continue to notice the slight decline in cash prices and the slight seasonal softness that's being seen in boxed beef prices. June live cattle are down $0.60 at $163.80, August live cattle are down $0.50 at $161.95 and October live cattle are up $0.27 at $166.42. Nevertheless, the live cattle contracts are continuing to trade in their sideways trading pattern, not seeming to want to pressure either end of the market's steady, sideways pattern. Cash cattle trade will likely be delayed until Wednesday or later of this week as feedlots want to keep the market as close to steady as possible.
Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for $170, which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $280, which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 81,474 head. Of that, 71% (57,882 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 29% (23,592 head) were committee for the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.77 ($302.84) and select up $1.15 ($285.83) with a movement of 42 loads (29.45 loads of choice, 5.96 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.56 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though nearby corn prices are rallying $0.05 to $0.10 higher, the feeder cattle complex is charging full steam ahead into Monday's noon hour. May feeders are up $0.22 at $205.70, August feeders are up $0.70 at $229.67 and September feeders are up $0.55 at $232.52. Feeders' ability to trade higher is stemming from internal support and the fact that feeder cattle prices are continuing to ring the bell in sale barns across the country as buyers know that supplies are incredibly thin. Just last Friday, the CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 11 again closed above $200.00, at $200.58, showcasing that demand is still alive and well in the marketplace.
LEAN HOGS:
Oddly enough, the lean hog complex is trading substantially higher into Monday's noon even though last week's market brought plenty of pressuring news between the SCOTUS ruling on Prop 12 and Friday's WASDE report. June lean hogs re up $2.40 at $86.50, July lean hogs are up $2.27 at $87.60 and August lean hogs are up $1.87 at $87.95. The biggest sigh of relief comes from the fact that the market isn't seeing any more pressure on its support plane. Traders are still trading within the market's sideways foothold, but higher trade will always gladly be taken. And, if pork cutout values can close higher, they may stand a chance at keeping this momentum alive come Tuesday.
The projected lean hog index for May 12 is up $0.59 at $76.50 and the actual index for May 11 is up $0.51 at $75.91. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 3,225 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $75.75. Pork cutouts total 151.81 loads with 124.28 loads of pork cuts and 27.53 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.12, $83.53.
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