Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Concerns of a Government Shutdown Drive Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With time ticking away and a government shutdown still looming, much of next week's market will be affected by that outcome. Largely, all of Friday's focus was on the fact that a shutdown is extremely likely, which led all three of the livestock markets to a lower close at Friday's end. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.20 with a weighted average price of $73.56 on 2,046 head. December corn is down 11 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $10.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 191.35 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle down $2.87, December live cattle down $3.42; October feeder cattle down $6.67, November feeder cattle down $8.62; October lean hogs down $1.33, December lean hogs down $0.40; December corn steady, March corn steady.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex didn't have much ground to stand on to defend its market against the tough political pressures that come with a nearing government shutdown. The cash cattle market was extremely quiet throughout the day as packers hope to capitalize on the market's softness next week. Throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle sold for $288 to $293, but mostly at $290 to $291, which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at $182 to $183, but mostly at $183, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Packers were able to not only keep prices from trading better than steady, but Friday's slaughter was also drastically lower at just a mere 96,000 head. October live cattle closed $2.30 lower at $184.20, December live cattle closed $2.50 lower at $187.92 and February live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $192.50. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 96,000 head, 18,000 head less than a week ago and 21,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 11,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 612,000 head, 13,000 head less than a week ago and 55,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.73 ($300.78) and select down $1.40 ($276.04) with a movement of 131 loads (76.18 loads of choice, 26.11 loads of select, 11.69 loads of trim and 16.61 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers cut Friday's slaughter to a mere 96,000 head, it's likely that they're going to try to push prices lower again next week as supplies build.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex didn't have much affecting its market, other than the pressure of a government shutdown looming. Demand was mixed this past week for feeder cattle and calves, but as next week officially welcomes October, demand could grow stronger again as buyers know that the fall run will be well underway. Even if a government shutdown does happen, I tend to believe that feeder cattle prices in the countryside will remain well supported as feedlots will still need the calves but, as always, time will tell. October feeders closed $2.25 lower at $252.47, November feeders closed $2.77 lower at $254.90 and January feeders closed $2.00 lower at $258.05. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers sold steady to $3.00 lower and feeder heifers traded mostly steady. Demand was moderate to good on feeder cattle this past week despite the futures complex facing some pressure. Stocker cattle sold $4.00 to $8.00 lower. Steer calves traded steady to $3.00 lower and heifer calves sold $3.00 to $6.00 lower. It hurt calf sales that farmers are still out in the field. Slaughter cows traded $5.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 50%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Sept. 28: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a tough day for the lean hog complex as the market not only had to endure the pressures of a likely government shutdown, but also a mixed Hogs and Pigs report. The nearby contracts rounded out the day with $3.00 losses while the deferred contracts closed $1.00 to $2.00 lower. But even with a plethora of reasons why the market closed lower, traders elected to keep the contracts above the market's long-term support plane. October lean hogs closed $3.75 lower at $80.20, December lean hogs closed $3.75 lower at $71.77 and February lean hogs closed $3.15 lower at $75.45.

Pork cutouts totaled 255.88 loads with 235.62 loads of pork cuts and 20.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.31, $97.23. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 24,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected around 208,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Sept. 27: unchanged at $86.14.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork demand not quite as strong this past week, packers will likely wait until midweek before they buy aggressively and potentially push prices higher.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weaker Tones Lead Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

So far, it's been a rough day for the livestock contracts as prices are lower and weaker tones dominate the marketplace. No new cash cattle trade has been reported and it looks like the week's business is essentially done. December corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $8.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 67.72 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though Thursday's market saw more technical support than earlier in the week, the live cattle complex is back to trading lower. The cash cattle market's steady/somewhat weaker tone hasn't lent much additional support as this week's trade has trickled in by bits and pieces and its overall tone has been soft. No new sales have been reported Friday morning and it's likely the week's business is essentially done. So far this week, Northern dressed deals have had a range of $288 to $293, mostly $290 to $291, $1 to $2 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live transactions have been marked at $182 to $183, mostly $183, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. October live cattle are down $1.75 at $184.75, December live cattle are down $1.95 at $188.50 and February live cattle are down $1.57 at $193.05.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.90 ($302.41) and select down $0.11 ($277.33) with a movement of 70 loads (42.44 loads of choice, 13.88 loads of select, 5.82 loads of trim and 7.81 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower as traders again move the spot November contract to the bottom of its recently established trading range. The feeder cattle complex isn't lacking fundamental support, and the further the market moves through October the better prices will likely become. Yes, sale barns have seen slightly softer prices this past week, but it's only been by $1.00 or $2.00 here and there, as the only groups really getting discounted are the unweaned/unvaccinated calves. But without much support from the live cattle/cash cattle market and with concerns that a government shutdown could begin next week, feeders are remaining cautious. October feeders are down $2.60 at $252.12, November feeders are down $2.60 at $255.12 and January feeders are down $1.85 at $258.20.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders are allowing the lean hog contracts to trade lower as the fears of a government shutdown mixed with Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report isn't setting well with the complex. The nearby contracts are seeing the biggest hit as the contracts are trading mostly $3.00 lower, but $1.00 to $2.00 losses are noted even in the deferred contracts. The spot December contract is trading at the bottom of its trading range, but trades haven't broken through support at this point. It's likely the market will close with this doggish mindset as support isn't seeming to develop fundamentally or technically. October lean hogs are down $3.70 at $80.25, December lean hogs are down $3.75 at $71.77 and February lean hogs are down $3.27 at $75.32.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/28/2023 is down $0.56 at $85.58, and the actual index for 9/27/2023 is steady at $86.14. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.73 with a weighted average price of $74.35, ranging from $72.00 to $75.50 on 1,155 head and a five-day rolling average of $76.53. Pork cutouts total 142.60 loads with 128.94 loads of pork cuts and 13.66 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.28, $96.64.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May See Selling Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures rebounded nicely despite the direction of cash and boxed beef this week. Cash trade did not change Thursday with Southern cattle trading at steady money with last week and Northern dressed cattle trading as much as $2.00 lower. Traders did not seem to care and took advantage of the recent weakness to buy back into the market for the long term as cattle numbers remain tight. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $0.56 and select down $1.07. Beef prices have been struggling during the week. Weekly export sales were positive at 17,700 metric tons (mt), up 29% from last week, as international buyers have not backed away.

Hog futures showed surprising strength moving into the Hogs & Pigs report. Underlying cash and cutouts did not support the move, which seemed to be strictly technical in nature. The report held some surprises with some numbers coming in higher than estimated, leaving it a bearish report. All hogs and pigs were 100.3% and above a year ago and above the average estimate. Hogs kept for breeding were in line with the trade estimate providing no surprise. Hogs kept for breeding were 100.4% and 1.0% above the trade estimate. The big surprise was June-August pigs per litter was 4.3% above a year ago, reaching a record 11.61 pigs. This number was even above the top end of trade estimates. Weights were also higher than estimates in all categories. Futures may struggle due to the numbers on the report as well as cash declining $1.86 Thursday on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report. Cutouts were also under pressure with a decline of $0.84. Weekly export sales were good at 27,400 mt but were 9% below the previous week. All of this could put pressure on futures Friday. Saturday slaughter was increased from yesterday's estimate to 206,000 head as more were added to make up for some down time this week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have corrected an overbought situation with traders anxious to buy back in for the long haul.	1)	Cash traded steady to $2.00 lower and may not change direction Friday. Traders may be disappointed with overall cash and may take a short-term profit ahead of the weekend.
2)	October generally sees an increase in beef demand with the market anticipating boxed beef prices to reflect consumer preference.	2)	There may be some negative influence spilling over into the market if the Quarterly Grain Stocks report provides support to grain futures.
3)	Hogs defied fundamental gravity Thursday as traders were aggressive buyers. Further short-covering could take place Friday.	3)	Hogs may be under pressure due to some unexpected bearish numbers in the Hogs & Pigs report.
4)	Hog futures held support this week, which may keep futures in a sideways trading pattern for a time.	4)	Cash has been lower all week and not expected to see any strength Friday. Packers have been able to purchase hogs without difficulty.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Continues to Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a strong technical day for the livestock contracts as all three markets closed higher. It will be especially interesting, however, to see how traders view the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Friday morning as the report shared mixed messages. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.86 with a weighted average price of $74.76 on 2,955 head. December corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 91.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though a government shutdown looms overhead of the cattle complex, traders elected to advance the live cattle contracts through Thursday's end as they seemed to value the market's strong fundamental position more so than they had earlier in the week. October live cattle closed $1.60 higher at $186.50, December live cattle closed $2.25 higher at $190.42 and February live cattle closed $2.22 higher at $194.62. Packers didn't give the cash cattle market much interest through Thursday's trade as a few bids were offered in Nebraska, but feedlots elected to let them sit on the table unless packers were going to up the ante. Thus far this week Southern live cattle have traded for $183 which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for mostly $290 to $292 which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists remain at $183 plus in the South and $292 plus in the North. More trade will likely develop ahead of the week's end, but it could just be clean up in its nature. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- steady with last week but 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 17,700 mt for 2023 were up 29% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (3,900 mt), South Korea (3,500 mt) and China (3,200 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending 9/16/2023 steers averaged 919 pounds, which is two pounds heavier than a week ago and one pound more than a year ago. During the same week, heifers averaged 821 pounds which is four pounds lighter than a week ago and 11 pounds lighter than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.56 ($301.51) and select down $1.07 ($277.44) with a movement of 149 loads (77.48 loads of choice, 51.02 loads of select, 4.04 loads of trim and 16.15 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers were able to buy a sizeable volume of cattle last week likely means that they'll only pay modest interest to the market this week and try to keep prices no better than steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex kept with its rallying nature well through Thursday's end as the market saw consistent $2.00 gains across its contracts. Demand continues to remain strong in the countryside although many sales are noting that farmers are still out in the field and that interest should improve once they're done harvesting. October feeders closed $2.47 higher at $254.72, November feeders closed $2.87 higher at $257.67 and January feeders closed $2.65 higher at $260.05. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers weighing 850 to 950 pounds were selling steady to $3.00 lower, but steers weighing 700 to 850 pounds were selling $1.00 to $4.00 higher. There weren't enough heifers at the sale to generate and accurate market trend, although lower tones were noted. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 95%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/27/2023: down $1.07, $252.20.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also kept with its rallying stride through Thursday's end, but it will be interesting to see what traders do with the market Friday morning. This afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was a mixed bag as revisions were made to the previous report, and although the September/November farrowings were marked 5% lower, there appears to be no shortage of supply moving forward. The other thing that didn't sit well with me about the report was that I expected a bigger reduction in the number of sows kept back for breeding -- one would have thought that with the financial hardship in producers endured late 2022/into 2023 and in preparation for Prop12 that more sows would have been culled? But regardless, the contracts closed higher despite both cash prices and pork cutout values ending the day lower. October lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $83.95, December lean hogs closed $2.75 higher at $75.52 and February lean hogs closed $2.32 higher at $78.60. Pork cutouts totaled 313.33 loads with 278.11 loads of pork cuts and 35.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.84, $96.92. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head - 3,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/26/2023: down $0.17, $86.14.

Pork net sales of 27,400 mt for 2023 were down 9% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (11,600 mt), Japan (4,500 mt) and South Korea (3,900 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers have made it clear that they've secured their needs for the week and won't likely buy many more hogs in this week's cash market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Leap Higher

General Comments

Even though there are still concerns about whether a government shutdown will occur, and about out economic state as a nation, the livestock contracts have elected to look past those pressures this morning as all three of the markets are trading higher. Heading into this afternoon be on the lookout for the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report as well as Thursday's actual slaughter data. December corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 170.30 points.

LIVE CATTLE

Like the feeder cattle market, the live cattle complex is back to trading higher as traders find the market's downturn endured earlier this week enough for the time being. No more cash cattle trade has developed, but it's likely that more will pop up in small increments here and there before the week's end. Thus far this week Southern live cattle have traded for $183 which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for mostly $290 to $292 which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists remain at $183 plus in the South and $292 plus in the North. Heading into this afternoon be on the lookout for Thursday's actual slaughter data as last week steer prices jumped nine pounds from the week before. October live cattle are up $1.85 at $186.75, December live cattle are up $2.57 at $190.75 and February live cattle are up $2.47 at $194.87.

Beef net sales of 17,700 mt for 2023 were up 29% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (3,900 mt), South Korea (3,500 mt) and China (3,200 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.53 ($301.48) and select down $0.29 ($278.22) with a movement of 70 loads (31.00 loads of choice, 23.92 loads of select, 3.03 loads of trim and 12.39 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

After feeling the market's pressure throughout the earlier part of the week, the feeder cattle contracts are now back to trading higher as traders believe the downside endured has been enough at this point. Thankfully the market still sits with tremendous fundamental support which is helping alleviate some of the technical, economic and political pressures that continue to loom over the marketplace. October feeders are up $2.37 at $254.62, November feeders are up $2.87 at $257.67 and January feeders are up $2.82 at $260.22.

LEAN HOGS

The lean hog complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour as the market anxiously awaits this afternoon's Hogs and Pigs Report. The report is expected to be favorable to the market as sows have been culled and numbers are expected to remain depleted well into 2024. October lean hogs are up $1.62 at $83.72, December lean hogs are up $2.95 at $75.72 and February lean hogs are up $2.62 at $78.90. The report will be released after today's close which likely means that traders will react to the report first thing Friday morning.

The projected lean hog index for 9/27/2023 is unchanged at $86.14, and the actual index for 9/26/2023 is down $0.17 at $86.14. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.64 with a weighted average price of $76.08, ranging from $72.00 to $77.00 on 1,776 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.10. Pork cutouts total 152.30 loads with 135.22 loads of pork cuts and 17.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.56, $96.20.

Pork net sales of 27,400 mt for 2023 were down 9% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week 

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report to Be Released

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex has seen lower prices since the Cattle on Feed report with futures unable to find solid footing. The general fundamental picture has been somewhat negative as boxed beef prices have been struggling this week and the looming government shutdown seems to have raised more concern over the impact it will have on the reporting of necessary information. Uncertainty generally is bearish to a market. There was some light cash trade Wednesday at steady to $2.00 lower. With futures falling as much as they have, it could be difficult to see higher cash this week. Boxed beef was mixed Wednesday with choice up $1.41 and select down $0.59. Thursday is the last trading day for September feeder cattle with October then taking over as the front month.

Hogs have been able to hold this week, but have made little progress in regaining what was lost last week. Two-sided trading is expected Thursday as traders position themselves ahead of the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released after the close. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs is down 0.7% from a year ago at 73.6 million head, the lowest since 2017. Marketings are estimated at 67.6 million head, down 0.6% from a year ago, also the lowest since 2017. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated to be down 1.5% at 6.1 million head. Cash was not supportive Thursday with the National Direct Afternoon report showing a decline of $0.37. Cutouts added to the uncertainty of the market, posting a decline of $0.52. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 201,000 head. One packing plant dark on Thursday due to maintenance will be running a full schedule Saturday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The uncertainty of the impact of a government shutdown may have been factored in, which may have traders buy into the market at lower prices.	1)	Feeder cattle have fallen substantially over the past week and ended below technical support Wednesday. Further losses are possible if futures do not bounce Thursday.
2)	The overall fundamentals of the market have not changed with cattle supplies expected to remain tight for some time to come.	2)	Initial cash trade steady to $2.00 lower does not bode well for the market keeping pressure on futures.
3)	Hog futures bounced from support and have been able to hold that level. Traders may be more aggressive buyers if the Hogs & Pigs report is neutral to friendly.	3)	Hogs have not been able to recover very much from the losses, leaving traders cautious ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report.
4)	Packers have not been aggressive so far this week but may step up more Thursday to finish purchases resulting in higher cash prices.	4)	Both cash and cutouts have been under pressure this week leaving little reason for futures to rally.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Find Mild Support While Cattle Keep Grinding Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the lean hog contracts found mild support ahead of Wednesday's close, but the cattle contracts couldn't attract any attention from traders. A little cash cattle trade developed, but more will need to develop later this week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.37 with a weighted average price of $76.62 on 5,581 head. December corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 68.08 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex merely kicked rocks throughout Wednesday's trade as the contracts all closed lower and the cash cattle market only saw mild interest from packers throughout the day. The market's reality of tight supplies remains true, but with fears of a government shutdown looming mixed with slightly lighter processing speeds and financially drained consumers -- the live cattle market is gritting its teeth praying that the government doesn't shut down and that beef demand picks up. October live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $184.90, December live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $188.17 and February live cattle closed $0.65 lower at $192.40. There was a handful of cattle traded in the North at $290 to $292 which is steady to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Late Tuesday afternoon there was some live trade reported in the South at $183 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head - steady with a week ago but 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.41 ($300.95) and select down $0.59 ($278.51) with a movement of 149 loads (85.81 loads of choice, 35.73 loads of select, 6.17 loads of trim and 21.26 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Packers weren't overly aggressive in Wednesday's cash market, and they'll likely need to procure more cattle before the week's end.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With corn prices rounding out the day $0.03 to $0.04 higher and the live cattle/cash cattle markets lending virtually no support, the feeder cattle complex had little but to close lower. October feeders closed $1.62 lower at $252.25, November feeders closed $2.07 lower at $254.80 and January feeders closed $2.70 lower at $257.40. With the notion of a government shutdown looming the market continues to remain hesitant and on edge despite the market's fundamentals still remaining in good standing.

At Winter Livestock Auction in Riverton, Wyoming compared to last week slaughter cows sold steady while slaughter bulls traded $1.00 to $4.00 lower. Yearling steers traded unevenly steady with lower undertones noted, but yearling heifers sold steady with higher instances. Feeder cattle that were long weaned with pre-conditioning shots sold stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 33%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/26/2023: down $0.63, $253.27.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mildly higher as the market anxiously awaits to see what Thursday's Hogs and Pigs Report presents. Even if the report is supportive, we have to question how much upside potential the market will have given the political and economic pressures looming above the livestock complex this week. Either way, traders will be keenly waiting for the report and will likely react to its findings Friday morning. The lean hog contracts did close mildly higher Thursday afternoon, but it wasn't because of better fundamental support as both cash prices and pork cutout values closed lower. October lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $82.12, December lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $72.77 and February lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $76.27. Pork cutouts totaled 257.62 loads with 213.60 loads of pork cuts and 44.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.52, $97.76. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/25/2023: down $0.39, $86.31.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers are keeping their cards close to their chest this week which likely means that they'll show Thursday's market little interest and at best prices will trade steady.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Have Hogs Found Some Technical Footing?

General Comments

It's a mixed marketplace for the livestock industry as the lean hog complex is trading mildly higher but the cattle contracts can't seem to find support. Some light cash cattle trade developed this morning in the North at $290 to $291, but that's not to say that a market trend has been established for the week. December corn is up 4 3/4 cents per bushel (bu) and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 194.33 points.

LIVE CATTLE

The live cattle complex is still trading lower and is again pressuring the bottom side of the market's current trading range. It's not helping that some light cash cattle trade has already begun to develop late Tuesday afternoon. Some Southern trade was marked at $183, which is fully steady with last week's weighted average, but this morning some light trade (extremely few head) was noted in Nebraska at $290 to $291, which is $1 to $2 lower than last week's weighted average. There still isn't a consensus as to where the week's cash cattle market is going to trade, but steady to weaker tones seem to be the early trend. October live cattle is steady at $184.80, December live cattle is down $0.35 at $188.12 and February live cattle is down $0.65 at $192.40. More cash cattle trade will develop throughout the week and it's likely that packers may even begin to procure more cattle this afternoon.

Boxed beef prices are mixed. Choice is up $0.88 ($300.42) and select is down $0.56 ($278.54) with a movement of 89 loads (51.94 loads of choice, 18.15 loads of select, 3.19 loads of trim and 16.10 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE

With corn prices pushing a mild $0.04 rally, the feeder cattle complex continues to trade lower as the market comes up short of some much-needed technical support. Feeder cattle and calf prices have been softer this past week in the countryside with many sale barns noting farmers are still out in the field and not showing up as buyers yet.

Unweaned or unvaccinated calves are seeing the steepest price regression, which is expected. It's likely this lackluster tone will remain in the market through the week's end or until cash cattle prices or the live cattle contracts begin to trade higher again and lend the market some support. October feeders are down $1.87 at $252, November feeders are down $2.22 at $254.70 and January feeders are down $2.72 at $257.37.

LEAN HOGS

The lean hog complex is trading higher again as the market seems to find some footing technically speaking as the spot December contract is trading sideways with last Friday's close. October lean hogs are up $0.47 at $82.10, December lean hogs are up $0.60 at $72.92 and February lean hogs are up $0.67 at $76.42. Based on pre-report estimates, it's likely Thursday's Hogs and Pigs Report will be favorable to the market with tighter supplies hopefully correlating to stronger pork prices in the future. The report will be released at 2 p.m. Thursday (Central).

The projected lean hog index for Sept. 26 is down $0.17 at $86.14, and the actual index for Sept. 25 is down $0.39 at $86.31. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $76.72, ranging from $74.50 to $79 on 4,412 head and a five-day rolling average of $77.31. Pork cutouts total 151.32 loads with 135.98 loads of pork cuts and 15.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.54 at $98.82.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Through Selling Anticipated

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle came under severe pressure as there was a lack of bullish news. The focus turned to talk the Fed will likely raise interest rates before the end of the year. That will make it more expensive to purchase and own cattle until they are ready for the market. The other concern Tuesday was the strong possibility of a government shutdown next week. That could hinder the release of much-needed reports the agricultural industry relies on. The November feeder cattle contracts posted the largest one-day decline in the life of the contract. Further liquidation could follow Wednesday as long liquidation may continue. Live cattle showed triple-digit losses, falling below technical support. Feedlots may have a difficult time obtaining higher cash for cattle this week. Limited cattle trade developed Tuesday at $290 in Iowa. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.94 and select down $1.35.

Hogs closed mixed with December through July contracts slightly lower while surrounding contract were higher. Futures did not succumb to spillover pressure from cattle. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.66. Cutouts were down $0.58. Packers may be a bit more aggressive Wednesday to get more hogs on the books for the week. Traders may just let the market coast until the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs is to be down 0.7% from a year ago at 73.6 million head, the lowest since 2017. Marketings are estimated at 67.6 million head, down 0.6% from a year ago, also the lowest since 2017. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated to be down 1.5% at 6.1 million head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Tight supplies of cattle did not change, leaving the action Tuesday likely a much-needed price correction in a bullish market. Traders may buy back into the market.	1)	The large decline in cattle futures Tuesday could result in further liquidation as fund selling generally lasts 2 to 3 days.
2)	Even though there might be a government shutdown that could impact reporting, packers will still need to purchase cattle as business will continue to be done and consumer demand will need to be met.	2)	Choice boxed beef closed below $300, which has been an area of psychological support. Possible higher interest rates may have an impact on demand.
3)	Hog futures held support Tuesday, which could increase buying interest from traders anticipating a rebound.	3)	Hogs held support but could not uncover strong buyer interest. Futures may drift ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report.
4)	Packers are expected to show more interest Wednesday, which should support the cash market.	4)	Pork cutouts just cannot find consistent support. Demand remains variable and supply remains sufficient.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Concerns About a Government Shutdown Send Markets Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a brutal day for the livestock complex as the contracts turned lower across all three markets largely thanks to the likelihood that a government shutdown could occur. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.66 with a weighted average price of $76.88 on 7,201 head. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 377.06 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Tuesday's market wasn't the outcome that any bull-spreader likes to see, but with interest rates likely to go higher later this year and the looming concern of a government shutdown, traders all but closed up shop through Tuesday's market and let the contracts sink lower as they pleased. October live cattle closed $2.17 lower at $184.80, December live cattle closed $2.75 lower at $188.47 and February live cattle closed $2.85 lower at $193.05. The market's downturn was aggressive enough that it broke through the nearby support plane which had kept the December contract trading mostly steady. Feedlot managers look at today's weaker close and hope that they can keep cash cattle prices at least steady given that packers have built up some supply around them. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and it's likely that trade is delayed until Wednesday afternoon or Thursday. Asking prices in the South are noted at $186 plus. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. If trade does begin to develop as early as Wednesday, prices will likely remain steady this week as the negative turn in the futures complex makes it harder for feedlots to get anything better at this point.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.94 ($299.54) and select down $1.35 ($279.10) with a movement of 157 loads (91.37 loads of choice, 34.92 loads of select, 13.38 loads of trim and 16.93 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a painstaking day for the feeder cattle complex as the market closed substantially lower. The market's widespread despair was seen consistently throughout both the nearby and deferred contracts as $4.00 to $5.00 losses were consistent across the board. Both the October and November 2023 contracts closed below their 40-day moving average. The combination of economic concerns and the possibility of a government shutdown are to blame for the market's weakness. October feeders closed $4.95 lower at $253.87, November feeders closed $5.82 lower at $256.87 and January feeders closed $5.50 lower at $260.10. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder steers sold steady to $2.00 lower and feeder heifers traded $2.00 to $4.00 lower. Steer calves sold $4.00 to $8.00 lower except those weighing under 450 pounds which sold mostly steady. Heifer calves traded $10.00 to $15.00 lower. Un-weaned calves saw the biggest decline as they traded as much as $20.00 back. It was noted in the sale report that most farmers are still busy and in the field which meant that they weren't in the stands buying calves/feeders. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/25/2023: down $0.16, $253.90.

LEAN HOGS:

From the widespread technical downturn to the slight drop in pork cutout values, it wasn't necessarily a good day for the lean hog complex. The deferred contracts were able to keep their mildly higher position through the day's end, but the nearby contracts and most of those through 2024 closed lower. The other factor that is slightly unnerving for the lean hog complex is the reality that on Thursday another Hogs and Pigs Report will be released. This isn't an issue, and the insight is helpful, but given that the market is expecting big changes surrounding Prop 12, the report needs studied. October lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $81.62, December lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $72.35 and February lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $75.75. Pork cutouts totaled 360.57 loads with 309.81 loads of pork cuts and 50.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.58, $98.28. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/22/2023: down $0.38, $86.70.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers showed Tuesday's cash market a little more interest and they likely will again on Wednesday, but given the technical downturn, prices won't likely turn much higher.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Outside Economic Pressure Sends Cattle Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are enduring a tough day as the market can't seem to gather any interest from traders. The lean hog contracts are trading lower too but aren't seeing near the pressure that the cattle contracts currently are. December corn is down 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 299.10 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is seeing significant losses across the futures complex this morning as its contracts can't seem to attract traders' interest whatsoever. Right now, the spot December contract is being pressured to the point where support levels in the current sideways trading range are being pressured and closing below support could alarming to traders. The biggest bear seeming to add pressure to the market at this point continues to be our economy's weakened state and the looming concern and likelihood that interest rates will continue to creep higher. October live cattle are down $2.10 at $184.87, December live cattle are down $2.60 at $188.62, and February live cattle are down $2.52 at $193.35. NO cash cattle trade has developed yet and it's likely that the market won't see much interest until Wednesday or later.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.28 ($301.20) and select down $0.72 ($279.73) with a movement of 77 loads (41.21 loads of choice, 21.72 loads of select, 3.46 loads of trim and 10.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading anywhere from $1.00 to $4.00 lower as the market comes up short of finding any support thus far in Tuesday's complex. October feeders are down $3.82 at $255.00, November feeders are down $4.60 at $258.10 and January feeders are down $4.22 at $261.37. Even though corn prices are trending lower too, it's unlikely that the market closes higher as there's simply too much outside pressure hovering over the cattle complex at this point to expect anything different.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was more aggressive at the day's start than what it's currently being as the market nears Tuesday's noon hour, but without virtually any support from the cash market it's hard for traders to turn the contracts higher on just support from cutouts. Also adding a little pressure to the market is the fact that on Thursday another Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is set to be released. The report should add clarity to the market long term in regard to what to expect after Prop 12, but with big changes coming to the market, it does feel like a big elephant in the room. October lean hogs are down $0.02 at $81.50, December lean hogs are down $0.40 at $72.12, and February lean hogs are down $0.40 at $75.70.

The projected lean hog index for 9/25/2023 is down $0.39 at $86.31, and the actual index for 9/22/2023 is down $0.38 at $86.70. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that only 405 head have traded this morning and that the five-day rolling average now sits at $78.50. Pork cutouts total 192.10 loads with 169.27 loads of pork cuts and 22.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.95, $99.81.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs and Pigs Report Estimates

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures traded the neutral to slightly negative Cattle on Feed report Monday, resulting in mixed live cattle and lower feeder cattle futures. The report was positive compared to the previous year with tighter cattle numbers, but slightly negative due to actual numbers compared to estimates. The numbers compared to a year ago are what is more important, longer term. Packers may not be too aggressive this week as they bought quite a few last week, but they will need to try and keep ahead. No less than steady cash is expected. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $1.85 and select up $0.02. The storage report showed total beef supply at 421.6 million pounds, up 11.2 million pounds from July, but 18% below a year ago.

Hog futures were able to push into positive territory for the day. Support did not come from cash as the National Direct Afternoon Hog price was down $0.05. It is likely packers may be more aggressive Tuesday, as they generally are. The gain of $1.60 in cutouts Monday should provide some support Tuesday. Hower, traders will be turning their attention to the Hogs & Pigs report to be released Thursday. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs is down 0.7% from a year ago at 73.6 million head and the lowest since 2017. Marketings are estimated at 67.6 million head, down 0.6% from a year ago, also the lowest since 2017. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated to be down 1.5% at 6.1 million head. The Cold Storage report showed pork supply up 327,000 pounds from July, but 13% below a year ago at 471.1 million pounds. Belly stocks were down 14.3 million pounds at 36.9 million pounds, up 3% from a year ago.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures held Monday and are poised for new highs if cash trades higher this week.	1)	Feeder cattle futures seem to be struggling with a lower low again Monday. Feeder cattle at auctions showed lower cash trade.
2)	Beef in cold storage is down 12% from a year ago, indicating good demand and tighter supply.	2)	Packers may not be very aggressive this week as they were able to purchase some cattle for deferred delivery last week.
3)	Hog futures bounced from support, which may turn traders more aggressive. Stronger cash, higher cutouts, and expected lower numbers on the Hogs & Pigs report may provide support.	3)	The inability of hog futures to hold the highs Monday may mean traders are cautious to buy back into the market.
4)	Pork exports for the first seven months of the year are up 8.9% compared to the same period last year, while pork imports were down 21.7%.	4)	Hogs are sufficient for packers' needs, leaving them less aggressive in the cash market.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs See Support While Cattle Remain Hesitant

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as cattle traders remained skeptical through Monday's close, but the lean hog complex was able to see some mild progress made. No cash cattle trade developed and it's likely that the week's volume is delayed until Wednesday or later again this week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.05 with a weighted average price of $77.54 on 3,770 head. December corn is up 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 43.04 points.

Monday's Cold Storage Report shared that total pounds of beef in freezers was up 3% from a month ago but still down 18% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up slightly from last month, but down 13% from a year ago. And stocks of pork bellies were down 28% from last month, but still up 3% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex saw a little more support creep into its market ahead of Monday's end as the vast majority of the 2024 contracts closed higher, but the nearby contracts of 2023 still rounded out the day lower. October live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $186.97, December live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $191.22 and February live cattle closed $0.35 higher at $195.90. It's likely that the market will remain hesitant until it sees how beef demand is going to fair, or until some cash cattle trade begins to develop before it will trade higher again as traders remain incredibly conscience about not overly supporting the contracts. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 127,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week's trade started to develop Wednesday afternoon and trickled in here and there through Friday. Northern dressed cattle traded for $285 to $293, but mostly at $292 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $182 to $186, but mostly at $183 which is also steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 87,245 head. Of that 77% (67,449 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 23% (19,796 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.85 ($301.48) and select up $0.02 ($280.45) with a movement of 94 loads (50.12 loads of choice, 30.51 loads of select, 3.56 loads of trim and 9.96 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Packers were able to get a sizeable volume bought last week in the cash market so this week's market could remain steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a glum day for the feeder cattle complex as the contracts drifted lower through Monday's end despite the fact that last Friday's Cattle on Feed report should have added supportive tones to the market. But with most of the live cattle contracts rounding out the day lower, and especially the nearby live cattle contracts, the market sought support but came up empty-handed. October feeders closed $0.32 lower at $258.82, November feeders closed $0.82 lower at $262.70 and January feeders closed $0.30 lower at $265.60. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers under 750 pounds were selling $4.00 to $8.00 lower, while the heavier weights were trading steady. Feeder heifers under 750 pounds were selling $3.00 to $8.00 lower, with the heavier weights selling steady as well. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/22/2023: up $0.83, $254.06.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex found success in Monday's market as the contracts were able to close higher and pork cutout values rounded out the stronger too. The belly was the biggest reason why pork cutout values closed higher as it jumped $12.46, but the rib also saw a nice increase of $2.30. With the market being far from any resistance pressure now after last week's descent, traders have the ability to again freely trade the contracts without any immediate technical pressure. The big-ticket item this week for the hog complex will be Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report as it could add clarity as to what the market should expect after Prop12 is implemented in December. October lean hogs closed steady at $81.52, December lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $72.52 and February lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $76.10. Pork cutouts totaled 243.22 loads with 212.15 loads of pork cuts and 31.07 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.60, $98.86. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 469,000 head - down 16,000 head from last week and 15,000 head from a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/21/2023: down $0.09, $87.08.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers showed mixed interest in Monday's cash hog trade as they were more aggressive in the market than they have been in past weeks, but still the day's price was down a nickel and volume was thin.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Remain Skeptical

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders are continuing to keep an arm's distance from the cattle complex as Monday's noon hour rolls around despite receiving last Friday's supportive Cattle on Feed report. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading higher as the contracts are now free from resistance pressure and midday pork cutout values are higher. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 19.28 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is electing to keep its cautious but supportive stance as the market is trading merely sideways into Monday's noon hour. October live cattle are down $0.25 at $186.82, December live cattle are down $0.12 at $191.22, and February live cattle are up $0.30 at $195.85. Last Friday's Cattle on Feed Report should be viewed as a supportive finding that the cattle market can add to its already strong fundamental foothold. With fewer cattle on feed than a year ago, and fewer placements added in August, tight supplies amid strong demand should bode well for the market moving forward.

Last week's trade started to develop Wednesday afternoon and trickled in here and there through Friday. Northern dressed cattle traded for $285 to $293, but mostly at $292 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $182 to $186, but mostly at $183 which is also steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 87,245 head. Of that 77% (67,449 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 23% (19,796 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.93 ($301.40) and select up $1.19 ($281.62) with a movement of 36 loads (22.47 loads of choice, 12.03 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 1.85 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mostly lower into Monday's noon hour as the market longs to attract the interest of traders. One would have thought that Friday's Cattle on Feed report would have been enough encouraging news to entice some traders into turning the contracts higher Monday morning, but without the support of a higher trade live cattle market, traders remain reserved at this point. September feeders are down $0.65 at $253.45, October feeders are down $1.00 at $258.15 and November feeders are down $0.97 at $262.62.

LEAN HOGS:

After rounding out last week's market starkly lower, the lean hog complex is back to trading mildly higher. With the complex now away from resistance pressure, traders are again free to support the contracts if they find enough fundamental support in the market -- and thankfully with midday pork cutout values up nearly $3.00, that support is there. On Thursday the market will see another Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report released with could also lend support to traders, and clarify the market's trajectory, nonetheless. October lean hogs are up $0.07 at $81.60, December lean hogs are up $0.42 at $72.60, and February lean hogs are up $0.85 at $76.20.

The projected lean hog index for 9/22/2023 is down $0.38 at $86.70, and the actual index for 9/21/2023 is down $0.09 at $87.08. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.01 with a weighted average price of $77.94, ranging from $75.00 to $79.00 on 1,739 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.21. Pork cutouts total 132.55 loads with 114.64 loads of pork cuts and 17.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.96, $100.22.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Initial Weakness in Cattle Futures Possible

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures reflected steady cash with October up $0.15 and December down $.47 for the week. The Cattle on Feed report showed on-feed numbers at 98% of a year ago. Placements were 95% and marketings were at 94%. This is supportive to the market as lower numbers indicated continued tightness of cattle numbers. However, the numbers being slightly higher than the trade estimate for placements with slightly lower marketings could result in more aggressive selling of futures Monday. The selling may be short-lived as traders react to the numbers, but overall, the report was friendly in the larger picture as cattle numbers remain below a year ago. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.40 and select up $1.43. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding 2,680 long futures positions bringing their net-long total to 102,372 contracts. Feeder cattle were trimmed 329 contracts, reducing their net-long positions to 15,643 contracts.

Hogs were the recipients of massive selling pressure Friday. Futures closed above technical resistance Wednesday only to see the gains of the past month erased over the past two days for the February contract with the December contract falling back from the highest close since May. Futures are likely to test support, to $0.50 to $1.00 lower. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $0.50 to a weighted average price of $77.59. The cutouts did not fare well as they were down $1.49. Slaughter continues to remain strong. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds added 2,375 long futures positions, bringing their net-long positions to 40,693 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report showed continued lower numbers than a year ago. It will take time to rebuild cattle numbers.	1)	Feeder cattle futures look somewhat top-heavy, which could trigger further liquidation in the near term.
2)	Technically, the live cattle market looks strong and may break through to new contract highs again as traders remain bullish on prices.	2)	Knee-jerk selling could take place due to the Cattle on Feed number being slightly negative relative to trade estimates. Traders generally react based on how the actual results are compared to the estimates.
3)	Hog futures may retest the recent lows again but should find some buying interest at that level as funds are long the market and may defend their positions.	3)	Hogs may retest the previous low and if strong buying does not surface at those levels, further liquidation is possible.
4)	Slaughter pace remains strong, which should keep hogs from backing up and weights from increasing.	4)	Hogs are unable to find cash support. Packers pay higher cash prices for about two days out of the week with overall prices continuing to decline.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Round Out the Week Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday treated the cattle contracts extremely well, but the same can't be said for the lean hog market as its contracts sank lower. Thankfully Friday's Cattle on Feed report was supportive, and it could mildly support the market nearly next week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.50 with a weighted average price of $77.59 on 3,636 head. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 51.35 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $0.15, December live cattle down $0.47; September feeder cattle down $3.28, October feeder cattle down $5.33; October lean hogs down $1.60, December lean hogs down $2.93; December corn up $0.01, March corn up $0.02.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out Friday's trade higher as traders expected the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report to be supportive. Thankfully the report was indeed supportive, and traders may be able to maintain the current trading range next week with the support of this week's COF report and the steady prices seen in the cash market. October live cattle closed $2.10 higher at $187.07, December live cattle closed $1.85 higher at $191.35, and February live cattle closed $1.47 higher at $195.55. The week's volume of cash cattle sales has been thin and unless more trade develops late this evening, packers could be short bought heading into next week's market. Throughout the week Northern dressed cattle have sold for mostly $292 which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle sold for $183 which is steady with last week's weighted average as well.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 13,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 625,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 46,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.40 ($303.33) and select up $1.43 ($280.43) with a movement of 98 loads (60.25 loads of choice, 15.08 loads of select, 5.53 loads of trim and 16.81 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Unless packers are going to cut processing speeds which would minimize their need for cattle, it's likely that they're going to be short bought heading into next week's market.

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers have already been able to buy cattle in both regions, it's likely that Friday's trade will remain steady with today's prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The market closes before the USDA afternoon Cattle on Feed report is released, but traders believed that the report would be supportive, and supportive it was indeed! With both the on-feed and placement data lower than a year ago, traders will likely support the market again on Monday. Click here to read DTN's Cattle on Feed report comments:

September feeders closed $0.82 higher at $254.10, October feeders closed $1.37 higher at $259.15 and November feeders closed $0.82 higher at $263.52. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers sold steady to $3.00 higher and feeder heifers sold steady. Steer calves sold steady and heifer calves traded $2.00 to $5.00 lower. It was noted that the fall-run appears to be in full swing as more and more loads of unweaned calves are being sold. Slaughter cows and bulls sold $1.00 to $2.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 51%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/21/2023: down $0.87, $253.22.

LEAN HOGS:

The cattle contracts may have been able to rally through Friday's end, but that wasn't the case for the lean hog complex as its contracts fell anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower. Friday's weakness came as a double-edged sword as pork cutout values did close lower, and it's likely that traders believe that they overdid the market's upward run earlier this week. Come Monday traders will again scout the complex for support, and hopefully find some footing in the market although there's still more downside before long-term support levels are reached. October lean hogs closed $1.42 lower at $81.52, December lean hogs closed $2.30 lower at $72.17 and February lean hogs closed $2.40 lower at $75.35. Pork cutouts totaled 281.48 loads with 252.50 loads of pork cuts and 28.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.49, $97.26. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 478,000 head - 2,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 121,000 head. The CME lean hog index 9/20/2023: up $0.50, $87.17.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers were fairly aggressive this past week in the cash market, it's likely that they'll wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to really support the market again.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Head Higher as Market Awaits Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are back to trading higher while the lean hog complex continues to endure stiff pressure. The cattle market is eager to see what Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report unveils as the report is projected to display lighter on-feed numbers and fewer placements. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 25.73 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After being pressured throughout all of Thursday's trade, the live cattle complex is back to trading mostly $1.00 higher Friday. The market is anxiously waiting to see what comes of this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report as there's a chance lighter placements could mildly support the market. Placements and total on-feed numbers are expected to be lighter than a year ago, which should naturally add support to the complex, but seeing that support carry over into stronger trade throughout the futures contracts remains the question. No new cash cattle sales have been reported following the trade that developed Thursday afternoon. Southern live cattle were marked at $183 and Northern dressed cattle were marked at $292 -- both of which are steady with last week's weighted averages. October live cattle are up $1.47 at $186.45, December live cattle are up $1.30 at $190.80 and February live cattle are up $1.07 at $195.15.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.24 ($304.17) and select up $1.30 ($280.30) with 66 loads (42.67 loads of choice, 9.19 loads of select, 4.40 loads of trim and 9.76 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also is trading higher into Friday's noon hour as traders feel reaffirmed in their decision to move the contracts higher as they watch the live cattle contracts trade mildly higher as well. September feeders are up $0.82 at $254.10, October feeders are up $1.20 at $258.97 and November feeders are up $0.62 at $263.32. This afternoon's Cattle on Feed report could be another feather of support for the market if placements land on the lower end of analysts' estimates. Either way, demand in the countryside remains incredibly strong, which continues to keep the market from seeing much downside.

LEAN HOGS:

It's looking as though Thursday's downturn in the lean hog market wasn't just because of the outside economical pressures the market was facing, but also because traders felt as though the market's recent run was overdone. The complex is trading anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower with the nearby contracts enduring the most pressure. October lean hogs are down $0.70 at $82.25, December lean hogs are down $2.02 at $72.45 and February lean hogs are down $2.05 at $75.70. At this point it's likely the market will close with this grim tone and look to next week's complex to either add support or find a bottom for the move.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/21/2023 is down $0.09 at $87.08, and the actual index for 9/20/2023 is up $0.50 at $87.17. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $77.95, ranging from $73.00 to $80.00 on 2,360 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.24. Pork cutouts total 196.35 loads with 178.86 loads of pork cuts and 17.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.29, $98.46.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trade Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It seems the disappointment of cash cattle trading at steady money was not what traders wanted to see. Premium had been built into the market in the anticipation cash would again trade higher. Northern dressed cattle traded at $292 with Southern live cattle trading at $183. There was enough cash activity to likely set the stage for cash trading Friday. Futures activity may be influenced by traders positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report to be released at 2 p.m. CDT Friday. Estimates for the report are for on-feed numbers as of Sept. 1 at 97.6% of a year ago. Placements in August are estimated at 93.6% with marketings at 94.4%. Weekly export sales were not exceptional at 13,700 metric tons (mt) and not enough to support the trade. Boxed beef finally showed some strength with choice up $0.67 and select up $0.32. Feeder cattle continue to remain in strong demand with higher prices paid at auctions.

Hogs did an about face Thursday taking back the gains of the previous two days and then some. It was a victory for hog futures to push above technical resistance Wednesday, but it could not hold Thursday with the opening of trade immediately pushing contracts below support, triggering liquidation. The inability of cash and cutouts to see consistent strength keeps traders quick to sell any significant price increase. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $0.71. Cutouts were also under pressure, declining $0.47. Weekly sales were good at 30,200 mt, up 31% from the previous week, indicating international demand remains strong. Funds have been building a long position, but daily trade remains choppy. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report is expected to be friendly to cattle, continuing to show that cattle numbers will be tight for some time to come.	1)	Steady cash trade Thursday was a disappointment for traders as they had been anticipating high trade again this week.
2)	Cash cattle will not trade higher forever. Steady money this week should be considered supportive as gains are being held. A price correction in futures is healthy to relieve an overbought market.	2)	If any number in any category of the Cattle on Feed report is released above the trade estimate for on-feed or placements, it could trigger further liquidation.
3)	Even though hog futures dropped Thursday, October and December contracts remain in an uptrend.	3)	The inability of hog futures to hold above support Thursday may provide further negativity Friday as continued liquidation might take place.
4)	Hog weights decreased 0.1 pound to an average of 278.9 pounds. This is 0.7 pounds below a year ago.	4)	Packers likely have purchased enough hogs for the week, leaving cash lower Friday for any clean up sales.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Doggish Tones Lead the Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a doggish day for the livestock complex as traders kept a safe distance from all three of the markets and let them trade lower through Thursday's end. Some cash cattle trade did develop, and prices remained steady with last week's weighted average.

Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.71 with a weighted average price of $78.0 on 763 head. December corn is down 7 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $7.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 370.53 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a dreary day for the live cattle complex as the contracts closed anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower. It's not from a lack of fundamental support that the contracts traded lower, but rather from a gloomy outside day which kept traders hesitant and skeptical market participants all throughout Thursday's hours. October live cattle closed $1.80 lower at $184.97, December live cattle closed $2.02 lower at $189.50 and February live cattle closed $1.77 lower at $194.07. Some cash cattle trade started to develop shortly after the noon hour and thus far prices have remained steady this week. Southern live cattle have been trading for $183 and Northern dressed cattle have been trading for $292 -- both of which are steady prices with last week's weighted average. Asking prices in the South remain firm around $185 to $186 and in the North at $293 plus. More cattle will likely need to trade on Friday. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head - steady with a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending 9/9/2023 steers averaged 917 pounds which is nine pounds heavier than the previous week and three pounds more than the same week a year ago. During the same week heifers averaged 825 pounds which is three pounds more than the previous week and five pounds less than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 13,700 mt for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 15% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (3,700 mt), South Korea (3,100 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.67 ($301.93) and select up $0.32 ($279.00) with a movement of 132 loads (78.50 loads of choice, 25.67 loads of select, 16.22 loads of trim and 11.14 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers have already been able to buy cattle in both regions, it's likely that Friday's trade will remain steady with today's prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed lower alongside the other livestock markets as it simply couldn't draw in the interest of traders. The corn market didn't add any pressure as it too closed $0.06 to $0.07 lower in its nearby contracts. Yes, cash cattle prices held steady this week from the early sales noted, but that wasn't enough support with the live cattle contracts closing lower to boost the morale in the feeder cattle complex. September feeders closed $0.90 lower at $253.27, October feeders closed $2.80 lower at $257.77 and November feeders closed $2.87 lower at $262.70.

At Ogallala Livestock Auction in Ogallala, Nebraska compared to last week heifers traded $4.00 to $8.00 higher. Demand was called good throughout the entire sale but heifers that were NHTC verified sold anywhere from $4.00 to $13.00 more. There weren't enough steers to establish an accurate test. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 98%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/20/2023: up $0.67, $254.09.

LEAN HOGS:

Like the other livestock markets, the lean hog complex took a beating as it traded through Thursday's market. The real question that's got to be answered for the hog sector however is: was Thursday's weakness because traders over did their upward run or because of the economic pressure of outside markets? It's likely that the market won't come to a solid answer by Friday as traders will likely remain skeptical even though prices are back below resistance levels. October lean hogs closed $2.82 lower at $82.95, December lean hogs closed $3.75 lower at $74.47 and February lean hogs closed $3.15 lower at $77.75. Pork cutouts totaled 295.88 loads with 254.76 loads of pork cuts and 41.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.47, $98.75. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head - steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/19/2023: up $0.09, $86.67.

Pork net sales of 30,200 mt for 2023 were up 31% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,500 mt), South Korea (3,600 mt) and Canada (3,300 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that Thursday's market hardly saw any trade develop, it's unlikely that Friday's market will see much better interest.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weaker Tones Send the Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Doggish tones have taken over the livestock complex as traders remain skeptical of our nation's economy and don't see enough immediate support in today's market to justify trading the contracts higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and it's looking like the week's trade could be delayed until Friday at this point. December corn is down 7 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 138.19 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though it's expected that the cash cattle market will trade at least steady this week if not a little higher, the live cattle complex too has fallen subject to some pressure this morning. October live cattle are down $1.37 at $185.40, December live cattle are down $1.45 at $190.07, and February live cattle are down $1.20 at $194.65. No bids are currently being offered and at this point, it's looking like the week's trade could be delayed until something Friday. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $185 to $186 but are still elusive in the North. Trade could even be slow to develop on Friday until feedlots and packers see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report unveils.

Beef net sales of 13,700 mt for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 15% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (3,700 mt), South Korea (3,100 mt) and China (2,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.08 ($301.34) and select down $0.20 ($278.48) with a movement of 69 loads (36.71 loads of choice, 17.55 loads of select, 5.92 loads of trim and 8.37 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though corn prices are trending $0.06 to $0.07 lower into Thursday's noon hour, there simply isn't enough support in today's market to comfortably allow traders to advance the feeder cattle complex. Yes, demand still remains strong in the countryside as thin supplies of feeders keep the buying environment hot, but from a technical sense, the market is cold and cautious. September feeders are down $1.15 at $253.00, October feeders are down $2.65 at $257.92 and November feeders are down $2.37 at $263.10. Traders will also feel more comfortable once they see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report unveils as there's a wide discrepancy in where analysts believe placements could land.

LEAN HOGS:

Pinpointing all of what is affecting the lean hog market on this Thursday morning is a difficult task. Is it the market's outside pressures that have traders sending the contracts $2.00 to $3.00 lower? Or is it that traders got overly aggressive in their upward push of the contracts that they're now retracting some of their moves? It's likely that the answer lies in the middle of these two questions as both are likely to be having an effect on the contracts this morning. October lean hogs are down $2.22 at $83.55, December lean hogs are down $3.57 at $74.65, and February lean hogs are down $2.85 at $78.05. It's likely that the market sees this type of pressure through closing and looks to Friday's market, or potentially even next week's market, for direction and a way to move forward.

The projected lean hog index for 9/20/2023 is up $0.50 at $87.17, and the actual index for 9/191/2023 is up $0.09 at $86.67. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that only 160 head have traded, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.14. Pork cutouts total 192.16 loads with 167.39 loads of pork cuts and 24.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.04, $99.18.

Pork net sales of 30,200 mt for 2023 were up 31% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,500 mt), South Korea (3,600 mt) and Canada (3,300 mt).