GENERAL COMMENTS:
With time ticking away and a government shutdown still looming, much of next week's market will be affected by that outcome. Largely, all of Friday's focus was on the fact that a shutdown is extremely likely, which led all three of the livestock markets to a lower close at Friday's end. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.20 with a weighted average price of $73.56 on 2,046 head. December corn is down 11 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $10.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 191.35 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle down $2.87, December live cattle down $3.42; October feeder cattle down $6.67, November feeder cattle down $8.62; October lean hogs down $1.33, December lean hogs down $0.40; December corn steady, March corn steady.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex didn't have much ground to stand on to defend its market against the tough political pressures that come with a nearing government shutdown. The cash cattle market was extremely quiet throughout the day as packers hope to capitalize on the market's softness next week. Throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle sold for $288 to $293, but mostly at $290 to $291, which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at $182 to $183, but mostly at $183, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Packers were able to not only keep prices from trading better than steady, but Friday's slaughter was also drastically lower at just a mere 96,000 head. October live cattle closed $2.30 lower at $184.20, December live cattle closed $2.50 lower at $187.92 and February live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $192.50.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 96,000 head, 18,000 head less than a week ago and 21,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 11,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 612,000 head, 13,000 head less than a week ago and 55,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.73 ($300.78) and select down $1.40 ($276.04) with a movement of 131 loads (76.18 loads of choice, 26.11 loads of select, 11.69 loads of trim and 16.61 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers cut Friday's slaughter to a mere 96,000 head, it's likely that they're going to try to push prices lower again next week as supplies build.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex didn't have much affecting its market, other than the pressure of a government shutdown looming. Demand was mixed this past week for feeder cattle and calves, but as next week officially welcomes October, demand could grow stronger again as buyers know that the fall run will be well underway. Even if a government shutdown does happen, I tend to believe that feeder cattle prices in the countryside will remain well supported as feedlots will still need the calves but, as always, time will tell. October feeders closed $2.25 lower at $252.47, November feeders closed $2.77 lower at $254.90 and January feeders closed $2.00 lower at $258.05. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers sold steady to $3.00 lower and feeder heifers traded mostly steady. Demand was moderate to good on feeder cattle this past week despite the futures complex facing some pressure. Stocker cattle sold $4.00 to $8.00 lower. Steer calves traded steady to $3.00 lower and heifer calves sold $3.00 to $6.00 lower. It hurt calf sales that farmers are still out in the field. Slaughter cows traded $5.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 50%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Sept. 28: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:
It was a tough day for the lean hog complex as the market not only had to endure the pressures of a likely government shutdown, but also a mixed Hogs and Pigs report. The nearby contracts rounded out the day with $3.00 losses while the deferred contracts closed $1.00 to $2.00 lower. But even with a plethora of reasons why the market closed lower, traders elected to keep the contracts above the market's long-term support plane. October lean hogs closed $3.75 lower at $80.20, December lean hogs closed $3.75 lower at $71.77 and February lean hogs closed $3.15 lower at $75.45.
Pork cutouts totaled 255.88 loads with 235.62 loads of pork cuts and 20.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.31, $97.23. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 5,000 head less than a week ago and 24,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected around 208,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Sept. 27: unchanged at $86.14.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork demand not quite as strong this past week, packers will likely wait until midweek before they buy aggressively and potentially push prices higher.
No comments:
Post a Comment