GENERAL COMMENTS:
The lean hog contracts grew weaker as Friday traded on, but the cattle complex kept its rallying spirit through the week's end. With the help of stronger cash cattle prices, both the spot feeder cattle contract and the spot live cattle contract were able to close the week out at new contract highs. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.91 with a weighted average price of $77.53, on 3,965 head. December corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $7.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 246.92 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $3.70, December live cattle up $4.40; September feeder cattle up $2.03, October feeder cattle up $5.33; October lean hogs up $1.60, December lean hogs up $0.65; December corn down $0.08, March corn down $0.08.
LIVE CATTLE:
There are good weeks in the market, and then there are jaw-dropping weeks like this past one that makes everyone wonder: Are these prices real? October live cattle closed $1.45 higher at $186.92, December live cattle closed $1.47 higher at $191.82 and February live cattle closed $1.35 higher at $196.32. Traders took the strong, fundamental footing of the market and launched the contracts higher through Friday's end, which drove most of the nearby contracts to new contract highs. The cash cattle market also supported traders as steady to higher prices were seen across both regions. Southern live cattle traded for mostly $183, which is $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $292, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The big question moving forward is: Will the market sustain at these price points, or is the move overdone? Traders will have their work cutout for them next week with another Cattle on Feed report set to be released next Friday.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated around 632,000 head, incomparable to last week but 41,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.66 ($305.71) and select down 3.74 ($283.12) with a movement of 156 loads (96.72 loads of choice, 29.33 loads of select, 12.55 loads of trim and 17.60 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's tough telling what next week's market will amount to until we know how many cattle were bought this week. Packers will fight vigorously to keep prices from trending higher, but if they still need cattle, they could be forced to support the complex.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex only grew stronger as the day traded on and yet again it was the market's deferred contracts that saw the biggest gains. As traders and cattlemen look at the market and what the futures complex forecasts, there's one conclusion that can be drawn from the board: Supplies are going to be thin well into 2024, which is going to keep prices elevated. September feeders closed $2.20 higher at $257.37, October feeders closed $2.60 higher at $264.47 and November feeders closed $3.27 higher at $268.12. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week, feeder steers traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher and feeder heifers sold steady to $3.00 stronger. Steer calves sold $6.00 to $10.00 higher, with instances of $20.00 higher on the light weights. Heifer calves traded $3.00 to $8.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 higher, and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 50%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Sept. 14: up $2.18, $253.39.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog contracts attempted to trade higher but as the day neared closing, the nearby contracts grew weary and closed lower while the deferred contracts closed mildly higher. October lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $83.12, December lean hogs closed steady at $75.10 and February lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $78.77. It wasn't the belly that was at fault of dragging the carcass price lower Friday afternoon, but rather the picnic as it dropped $3.61. Pork cutouts totaled 254.25 loads with 232.36 loads of pork cuts and 21.89 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.26, $98.83. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head - 2,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 150,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Sept. 13: up $0.46, $86.94.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers haven't been very active in the cash hog market, which likely means that they'll do their business midweek as opposed to Monday.
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