Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Erode

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Strong, triple-digit losses swept through live cattle and feeder cattle trade Thursday as all contracts quickly pulled back from the past two days of higher moving markets. Both markets remain firmly rooted above lows set early in the week, but the lack of support on the last day of November is creating additional concerns that prices could remain stuck in the current but weak price pattern for the foreseeable future.

Light buying developed in lean hog futures with all but spot December contracts moving higher. This could help to spark follow through end of the week gains Friday morning.

Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $0.54 with a weighted average of $58.6 on 2,551 hogs. March corn closed up 7 at $4.828 and January soybean meal closed down $3.00 at $424. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 520.47 at 35,950.89.

LIVE CATTLE:

Triple-digit losses swept through live cattle futures Thursday as traders continue to back away from gains seen the last two trading sessions. All nearby contracts fell $1 per cwt as selling pressure eased slightly at the end of the session.

A portion of the market pullback is expected based on end-of-the-month position squaring of fund traders who are adjusting holdings before moving into the month of December. There remains uncertainty surrounding the direction of cash values through the end of the year and how significant if any end of year beef price support will develop over the coming weeks.

Cash cattle trade continues to develop in most areas with additional trade in the North seen at $275 dressed and $175 per cwt live. This is generally $4 per cwt lower on a dressed basis than last week's weighted average. Southern trade is seen at $174 per cwt, falling $1 per cwt below early week trade, but $3 per cwt below last week's average. The lack of cash market support despite earlier gains in futures trade during the week is disappointing as packers continue to focus on the ability to work prices lower surrounding the fear that potential further losses could develop in early December.

December live cattle closed $1.03 lower at $170.875, February live cattle closed $1.65 lower at $171.825 and April live cattle closed $1.50 lower at $174.425. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.99 ($299.02) and select up $0.66 ($264.75) with a movement of 181.31 loads (115.24 loads of choice, 33.21 loads of select, 15.10 loads of trim and 17.76 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with Thursday trade. The weaker tone of cash market prices is expected to continue, although prices are expected to have been set with only some clean-up activity expected Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Weakness in feeder cattle futures led the market lower once again with spot January futures leading the market lower, falling $2.25 per cwt. The strong gains seen over the past two trading sessions left markets unsupported on the last trading day of November. End-of-the-month position adjustments are seen with trades taking advantage of the recent price swings in the complex.

Overall, the feeder cattle complex still remains extremely under pressure falling nearly $30 per cwt through the month of November and tumbling over $50 per cwt in the last three months. Although prices have pulled above early week lows, the concern that support levels may once again be tested in early December has many traders extremely cautious.

January feeders closed $2.25 lower at $219.95, March feeders closed $1.70 lower at $222.575 and April feeders closed $1.65 lower at $226.675. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 28: up $2.52, $224.77.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures found late-month support in all but soon to expire December contracts. February futures led the complex higher, gaining $1.37 per cwt with increased focus on building increased market stability into the complex as well as additional support from news that Mexico is halting pork exports from Brazil. Even though overall exports slipped from the previous week in the morning report, the expectations that Mexico will turn to the U.S. for additional pork needs is helping to solidify some buyer support among nearby contract months.

December lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $68.775, February lean hogs closed $1.38 higher at $71.475 and April lean hogs closed $0.88 higher at $77.35. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 36,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 321.00 loads with 285.22 loads of pork cuts and 35.78 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.14 at $83.83. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 28: down $0.13, $71.53.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Limited support in cash and pork values at the end of the week is expected to keep end of the week cash hog prices soft early Friday morning.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Market Pressure Develops

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures have turned lower once again. November has been a very volatile market month, with spot live cattle futures trading within a $16 per cwt range, while spot feeder cattle futures moved within a $30 per cwt price range. This market volatility has led to additional market shifts and growing uncertainty about the ability to sustain recent gains. Also uncertain is just how much additional support can be expected through the end of the year. Lean hog futures are holding light to moderate gains in most contracts, as traders look for some end-of-month support from cash values and pork prices. But the overall movement in the complex may remain generally limited at the end of the month. March corn is up 7 1/4 at $4.83 and January soybean meal is down $2.70 at $424.3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 246.37 at 35,676.79.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle contracts have retracted a portion of the gains from the last two trading sessions with end-of-month losses developing Thursday morning. Although volume remains generally light, the lack of follow-through buyer support in the entire complex is very disappointing. Although prices have bounced back from month-long lows set early in the week, the significant price decline in the month of November cannot be easily overlooked. Spot contracts have posted a $13-per-cwt loss since the first of November, creating uncertainty as to whether late-calendar buyer support will develop before the end of the year. Cash cattle trade continues to trickle into the market, but this movement also brings market disappointment with the North posting sales at $275 per cwt Thursday morning. Although these prices are steady with midweek trade, current trade is $4 per cwt lower than last week's weighed average in the north, and generally $2 per cwt lower in the South. It is expected some trade will need to develop in the coming days, but the tone of the market may have been set already. The fact that cash markets have seen no support from this week's upward market movement is discouraging at best. December live cattle are $1.43 lower at $170.475, February live cattle are $2.00 lower at $171.475, April live cattle are $2.13 lower at $173.80. 

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.92 ($297.95) and select up $3.20 ($267.29) with a movement of 69.05 loads (49.11 loads of choice, 12.34 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.60 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are once again leading the cattle complex lower Thursday morning as traders are backing away from gains seen over the past two days. End-of-month position adjustments seem to be the main order of business for most traders Thursday as they try to square positions and close out holdings. The month of November has been bearish for feeder cattle contracts with spot January futures falling over $30 per cwt during the month, currently trading nearly $20 per cwt lower for the month. Although prices have moved firmly above multi-month lows in the past two trading sessions, the fact is prices are still nearly $50 per cwt below September and seasonal highs. Concerns of additional placements through the end of the year and 2024 beef demand growth continue to curb any long-term buyer support that tries to step into the market. January feeders are $2.83 lower at $219.375, March feeders are $2.63 lower at $221.65 and April feeders are $2.58 lower at $225.75.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are the bright spot of the livestock complex Thursday with light to moderate gains in most contracts. Even though buyer support remains extremely limited, compared to active triple-digit losses in cattle futures, this market seems much more stable for the moment. Traders remain concerned about the inability to consistently drive additional support into cash hog values or wholesale pork prices. But for now, it appears traders will stick with the current market direction through the end of November. December lean hogs are $0.03 higher at $69., February lean hogs are $1.38 higher at $71.475 and April lean hogs are $0.85 higher at $77.325.

Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $1.68 with a weighted average of $59.76, ranging from $51.00 to $62.00 on 1,361 head with a five-day rolling average of $60.21. Pork cutouts totaled 171.67 loads with 149.79 loads of pork cuts and 21.88 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.01 at $84.28.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders To Balance Oversold Futures With Fundamentals

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures closed higher as short covering and some new buying interest remained prevalent in the market. With cash trade prices likely set for the week, the discount to cash may provide further gains in futures. Cash cattle trade continued the pattern of the week with Southern trade $2 lower than last week. Trade developed in the North at $4 lower than last week. This is expected to the where business for the rest of the week will take place. Weakness of boxed beef may keep a lid on the potential for futures to rebound. Choice cuts were down $1.14 with select down $2.26. Traders are already looking ahead to next week assessing whether the discount to cash should be maintained or whether futures have further upside potential. Trader positioning for the end of the month has likely been accomplished leaving them focusing on fundamentals.

Hog futures showed surprising strength after the cash and cutout weakness on Tuesday. Wednesday showed further weakness with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a decline of $0.37. Cutout values were also lower, posting a decline of $0.83. With further weakness of cash and cutouts on Wednesday, it may be difficult for hog futures to see much upside price strength today. Packers have been more aggressive early to make up for the holiday week, but they have not had to chase after supply. Some end-of-the-month positioning might continue today.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle futures discount to cash may allow for further upside price potential. Cash cattle trade is set for the week.	1)	Lower cash cattle trade may keep a lid on price potential even though the market remains oversold. Boxed beef weakness may also provide pressure.
2)	A push through and a close above Wednesday's high may open the way for further technical gains.	2)	Cattle futures may need to close above the highs on Wednesday, which is technical resistance before the buying interest of traders may increase.
3)	Hog futures have a chart gap above the market left from Friday that is within striking distance and could be closed sooner rather than later.	3)	Hog futures are not being supported by underlying cash or cutouts which may limit upside price potential.
4)	If strong weekly pork export sales are reported, it could provide support to the market as lower prices might increase international demand.	4)	Hog gained 1.7 pounds for the week averaging 289.7 pounds. This is 4.6 pounds above a year ago.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Continue Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though cattle prices pulled back from session highs Wednesday, and didn't show the market optimism seen Tuesday, the focus on digging the market out of the price hole seen over the last week has helped to bring additional buyer support to all markets, which previously was content waiting on the sidelines.

Feeder cattle futures led the complex higher midweek, but the break away from active aggressive gains or losses seems to be helping add stability and consistency to the complex. The ability to sustain current gains in both cattle and hog futures through the end of the month will go a long way in helping to change and support the direction of livestock markets through early December, and likely the end of the year.

Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.37 with a weighted average of $58.06 on 8,552 hogs. March corn closed up 2 1/4 at $4.758 and January soybean meal closed down $3.50 at $427. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 13.44 at 35,430.42.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures shifted higher Wednesday, posting the most aggressive gains early in the trading session as traders followed the upward direction of the feeder cattle complex.

April futures were the only live cattle contract to close with over $1 per cwt gains, but the consistent move higher over the last two sessions is helping draw additional interest into the market. The inability to bring additional support to either the cash cattle market or beef values through the end of the month could create some uncertainty about just how much higher live cattle contracts will be able to go without at least a slight market pullback. But since prices are just slowly recovering from multi-month lows, there is not expected to be significant follow pressure given the current market structure. Cash cattle trade continues with a weaker tone from last week. Light trade has been reported in Nebraska at $275 per cwt. This is $4 per cwt lower than last week's weighted average and is expected to set the tone for week. Southern trade developed the last two days at $173 to $75 per cwt, which is generally $2 per cwt lower than last week.

December live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $171.9, February live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $173.475 and April live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $175.925. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.14 ($297.03) and select down $2.26 ($264.09) with a movement of 137.39 loads (82.65 loads of choice, 37.11 loads of select, 5.94 loads of trim and 11.69 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with early week trade. The early development of trade this week is likely to set the tone of the market, limiting upward price movement through the end of November.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts closed higher, but well below session highs. The limit gains Tuesday helped to stimulate additional upward movement in the complex, but the fact that prices are coming off multi-month, and nearly contract lows seems to be little support to a market, which has fallen over $50 per cwt in the last three months. But buyer support seems to still be available, although it is uncertain just how much end of the month buyer activity will develop Thursday.

January feeders closed $1.15 higher at $222.2, March feeders closed $0.78 higher at $224.275 and April feeders closed $0.90 higher at $228.325. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 27: down $4.71, $222.25

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures posted firm gains at the end of the session Wednesday with steady but firming buyer interest moving into all nearby contracts. The focus on pushing prices higher at the end of the month is creating some additional technical support through the market, although prices remain extremely oversold after coming off contract lows earlier in the week.

December lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $68.975, February lean hogs closed $1.08 higher at $70.10 and April lean hogs closed $1.48 higher at $76.475. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 324.84 loads with 269.34 loads of pork cuts and 55.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.83 at $83.97. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 27: down $0.67, $71.66.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Limited additional market support is likely to be seen early Thursday, although there could be some end of the week buying activity as packers prepare for early December plant schedules.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Market Support Continues

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Triple-digit gains are seen in several livestock futures Wednesday morning as traders continue to react to the aggressive market moves in cattle trade Tuesday and focus on building short-term support into an already oversold market structure. Feeder cattle futures once again are leading the move higher, although price gains are a far cry from utilizing the expanded trading limits available during the Wednesday session. Limited additional direction is likely to be seen through the rest of the trading day with current buying interest seemingly well rooted and little to no fundamental or technical market shifts expected in the upcoming hours.

Hog futures are mostly higher although lightly traded December contracts are steady to fractionally lower due to lack of market activity. March corn is up 3/4 at $4.743 and January soybean meal is down $3.30 at $427.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 63.37 at 35,480.35.

LIVE CATTLE:

Follow-through buyer support in live cattle contracts held through most of Wednesday morning with triple-digit gains seen during the first couple hours of trade. At midday, prices have slowly but steadily backed away from session highs, but the underlying firm tone that developed Tuesday seems to be holding at this point.

Traders continue to back away from market lows set at the beginning of the week with the complex remaining oversold, although concerns that beef and cash values may not be able to show significant market gains over the upcoming days or weeks could limit further market support over next several days.

April live cattle futures continue to lead the complex higher with traders essentially looking past any potential holiday and first quarter demand shifts, and into expected supply and demand issues through the spring and summer months. Movements in the feeder cattle Wednesday are likely to be one of the biggest market factors in nearby live cattle trade through the end of the trading session.

Cash cattle trade remains undeveloped Wednesday morning following light scattered trade through the South both Monday and Tuesday. Live trade in the South has been seen at $173 to $175 per cwt, although interest in the North seems illusive at best. It is likely that more cattle will need to be sold in all areas, but the focus through the end of the week is likely to be based on dressed cattle sales in the North.

So far Wednesday morning, asking prices are still hard to pin down with bids undeveloped in all areas. The inability to keep cash prices steady or higher from last week following the futures market rally could significantly dampen the overall tone of the market going into the month of December.

December live cattle are $0.45 higher at $172.1, February live cattle are $0.58 higher at $173.4, April live cattle are $1.05 higher at $175.925. 

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.21 ($297.96) and select down $1.74 ($264.61) with a movement of 88.02 loads (52.12 loads of choice, 24.63 loads of select, 3.51 loads of trim and 7.76 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have continued to lead the cattle market higher for the second consecutive trading session. The buyer support now moving into the market is focused more on the oversold status of the market rather than any new technical or fundamental changes in the cattle market. Over the last three months, spot month January contracts have fallen over $50 per cwt, moving to near contract low prices earlier in the week. There seems to be very little solid information that would point to traders justifying further widespread market pressure, but overall market factors still are not showing bearish signs that would bring aggressive market interest back into the complex at this point.

The ability to help establish a moderate to firming market trend in the current range may be the biggest factor in helping to rebuild price confidence within the feeder cattle complex through the month of December. January feeders are $2.08 higher at $223.125, March feeders are $1.48 higher at $224.975 and April feeders are $1.48 higher at $228.90.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures have gained much needed support Wednesday morning with follow through buyer support moving into the complex. Lightly traded spot December contracts remain slightly lower at midday with most of the trade volume in early 2024 contract months. February futures have now moved back above $70 per cwt, rebounding over $3 per cwt from contract lows set early in the week. There is very little additional fundamental market news, which is likely to add significant support to the overall complex, but the ability to put even more distance between current price levels and recent contract lows should help add market support to price levels through the end of the week. December lean hogs are $0.13 lower at $68.8, February lean hogs are $1.23 higher at $70.25 and April lean hogs are $1.55 higher at $76.55.

Hog Prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $2.04 with a weighted average of $61.44, ranging from $57.00 to $62.00 on 3,202 head with a five-day rolling average of $60.27. Pork Cutouts totaled 176.85 loads with 149.80 loads of pork cuts and 27.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $4.45 at $84.29.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Short Covering May Continue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a huge turnaround in cattle futures on Tuesday. Feeder cattle posted the greatest gains with the February contract regaining $8.25 of the previous losses. Live cattle futures showed $4.00 gains in some contracts. Traders reacted to the oversold condition of the market and the fact that it was overdone to the downside. The strength was not cash induced as some light trading activity took place as some cattle sold in Texas and Kansas at $175 which is $2 lower than last week. Trading this early in the week is unusual but packers needed to catch up on last week's lighter trade. This may set the precedence for the week, but it is too early to tell. Boxed beef prices were mixed yesterday with choice up $0.92 while select declined $1.45. Traders will try to balance lower potential cash with an oversold market. However, there may be more upside remaining as futures continue to correct.

Hog futures moved higher in response to higher cash and strong cutouts on Monday. The sharp rally in cattle did not have much influence on hog futures as gains remained moderate even though cattle showed strong gains. The stronger cash and cutouts of Monday did not follow through as the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $0.42 while cutouts fell back $3.95. Cutouts were pressured by a decline in all categories of cutouts with bellies down $16.11. This may limit upside potential today as traders will look at the market fundamentals. The market is oversold so further short covering could continue, but uncertain demand might be a limited factor.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	China recently granted approval for 18 U.S. beef establishments for export to the country. This should improve export capability.	1)	Early lower cash cattle trade may have set the tone for the week. Packers will take advantage of the recent large decline of cattle futures to pay less for cattle.
2)	A price correction following the magnitude of the sell-off that gripped the cattle market last week could continue today.	2)	A continuation of the price rally on Tuesday may be difficult to maintain without support from cash and boxed beef.
3)	China recently granted approval for 12 U.S. pork establishments for export to the country. This could increase export business.	3)	Lower cash and cutouts may limit price strength in hog futures as the market still struggles with demand.
4)	Hog futures found some support from higher cash and cutouts on Monday which could indicate a bottom may have been reached.	4)	Chart damage has been done in hog futures which may leave traders cautious about buying into the market very aggressively. February futures closed below technical resistance.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Aggressive Gains Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Aggressive buyer support flooded the cattle markets Tuesday, breaking away from the sharp and active losses that have developed over the last few trading sessions. The light holiday trade hovering over the market through the Thanksgiving break seems to have brought renewed optimism with increased overall volume as traders get back to work and focus on the upcoming market activity before the next big holiday of Christmas.

Triple-digit gains held in all nearby livestock trade and pushed live cattle and feeder cattle futures to aggressive gains at closing bell. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.42 with a weighted average of $58.43 on 10,761 hogs. December corn closed down 4 at $4.515 and January soybean meal closed down $6.10 at $430.5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 83.51 at 35,416.98.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures quickly and aggressively changed course Tuesday as active buyer support moved into all contracts. Unlike recent market rallies where buy orders seemed to quickly fade as the trading session continued, Tuesday's market seemed to gain momentum as the day continued. April futures led the complex higher, closing at $4.20 per cwt, while February and June futures closed $4 per cwt higher for the day. This moved prices away from 9-month contract lows in each of these markets, and quickly focused on the severely oversold market status.

The fact that sluggish holiday volume has ended helped to bring additional market interest back into not only nearby contract months but also deferred futures contracts. Cash cattle have broken away from the tradition of trading late in the week following the Thanksgiving break. Light to moderate trade has developed in the South at $175 per cwt. This is steady with Monday's light trade, but $2 per cwt lower than last week's weighted average. It is still too early to tell if the sharp rally in futures trade will change the overall market direction as the week continues, or if enough cattle will have been sold to effectively set the trend for the week.

Activity in the north remains quiet with bids and asking prices undeveloped. Both sides are closely watching where futures trade opens Wednesday morning, as this could help to set the direction for any additional trade needed for the week. December live cattle closed $2.88 higher at $171.65, February live cattle closed $4.00 higher at $172.825 and April live cattle closed $4.20 higher at $174.875. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.92 ($298.17) and select down $1.45 ($266.35) with a movement of 164.03 loads (90.45 loads of choice, 39.50 loads of select, 15.59 loads of trim and 18.49 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with Tuesday trade. Despite the aggressive futures rally developing Tuesday, the fact that trade is seen for two straight days in the South at $175 per cwt may set the tone for the week. Beef price and futures market direction early Wednesday could be a bigger indicator of late week cash price movement if it changes from current values.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle futures market was the main event Tuesday with active buyer support flooding into the market. Spot January futures closed $8.25 per cwt. Following sharp losses last week and follow-through pressure on Monday, the cattle complex remains extremely oversold, bringing about renewed momentum and buyer support. The limit gain in feeder cattle contracts has allowed for expanded trade limits in feeder cattle futures Wednesday with a new limit for the Wednesday session of $12.25 per cwt.

It is uncertain just how much follow-through support will return to the complex at the opening bell, but the expansion of price trade on the positive side is a significant and positive change from the recent market pressure hovering over the feeder cattle market over the last two months. It is still uncertain how the swift price shifts will impact cash feeder cattle trade, as the light holiday week trade last week has still not fully worked through cash markets due to the limited activity. January feeders closed $8.25 higher at $221.05, March feeders closed $7.20 higher at $223.5 and April feeders closed $7.20 higher at $227.425. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for November 24: down $3.42, $226.96.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures played follow the leader to the cattle markets Tuesday, with the good fortune of sharply higher live cattle and feeder cattle benefiting nearby lean hog contract prices the most. December through April futures posted triple-digit gains, helping to back away from contract lows seen earlier in the week, although there remains significant fundamental and technical uncertainty within the market. Traders continue to look for increased market support in both pork values and cash hog prices heading into the Christmas holiday and end of the year. There will also be increased focus on the weekly export sales report to determine just how much movement is developing and the potential ability to improve export movement in the near future.

December lean hogs closed $1.05 higher at $68.925, February lean hogs closed $2.10 higher at $69.025 and April lean hogs closed $1.38 higher at $75.00. Tuesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 358.12 loads with 311.61 loads of pork cuts and 46.51 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $3.95 at $84.8. The CME Lean Hog Index for November 24: down $1.27, $72.33.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Despite the early week pressure in cash hog values and pork cuts, the futures market rally and return to normal "full week" schedules by packers are expected to help stabilize cash values midweek.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Futures Surge Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With traders apparently fully back from the holiday break, buyers stepped back into the market with significant force as strong triple-digit gains are holding in all cattle trade and lean hog futures able to trade $1 to $2 per cwt higher in nearby contracts through much of Tuesday morning. The combination of losses last week and Monday in cattle and hog trade has moved price levels to or below support levels. This upward shift has stimulated many traders who have been waiting on the sidelines for buy signals to step back into the market. It is uncertain just how much additional buyer activity is still left to uncover as market direction remains unsettled at best. December corn is down 2 3/4 at $4.528 and January soybean meal is up $0.50 at $437.1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 175.80 at 35,509.27.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following strong losses over the last several days, February live cattle futures prices started the morning at the lowest price since February. The inability for the cattle complex to hold the market rebound seen in late October is creating both fundamental and technical concerns to the entire complex.

Tuesday morning buyer support flooded into all cattle trade with feeder cattle and live cattle futures holding strong triple-digit gains. The ability to retract some of the recent losses, which developed due in part to limited trade seems to be creating additional market momentum across the entire complex. February live cattle futures are holding a $4 per cwt rally at midday, although the market structure remains extremely weak and follow-through buying will be needed in order to confirm any change in market direction over the next couple of days.

Cash cattle activity remains quiet with bids and asking prices still unavailable at this point. The wild market swings over the past two days in futures trade could cause both sides to go back to the drawing board. Even though limited interest was seen Monday, mandatory reporting reported light trade in several areas $2 per cwt lower than last week's average. The wild swings in futures prices could create significant cash market shifts, and very easily delay trade activity until the last half of the week. December live cattle are $3.55 higher at $172.325, February live cattle are $4.50 higher at $173.325, April live cattle are $4.50 higher at $175.175. 

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.35 ($296.90) and select down $0.08 ($267.72) with a movement of 87.59 loads (47.79 loads of choice, 23.45 loads of select, 3.87 loads of trim and 12.48 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Sharp gains flooded the feeder cattle markets Tuesday morning as traders retracted Monday's losses. Spot January futures are trading over $7 per cwt higher during morning trade as the wide market shifts has created increased market volatility. Even with these strong gains, most of last week's losses are still holding, creating a negative overall impact on the entire complex.

Current prices are holding above contract lows in the January futures, but following recent pressure are still significantly oversold with traders looking for additional hints of fundamental and technical support to move back into the market. The concern with the wide market swings is that the volatility can easily lead to additional volatility and wide market shifts. The ability to string together several days of upward price shifts would add significant confidence to the entire complex.

January feeders are $7.23 higher at $220.025, March feeders are $6.38 higher at $222.675 and April feeders are $6.23 higher at $226.45.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures have moved higher Tuesday morning following residual buying support spilling over from the cattle complex. But with lean hog futures still fundamentally and technically weak following active pressure over the last couple of weeks, this buyer support seems to be fading at midday. Although prices remain higher in all contracts, initial early gains have been cut significantly in most contract months. There remains uncertainty about the ability to spark additional volume in the market in order to stabilize the complex and rebuild on recent market pressure. Increased volume in cash hog trade and pork cutout values later in the week could help to bring some of the stability needed to the entire lean hog complex.

December lean hogs are $0.85 higher at $68.725, February lean hogs are $1.08 higher at $68.00. and April lean hogs are $0.50 higher at $74.125.

Hog Prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $1.52 with a weighted average of $59.4, ranging from $54.50 to $62.00 on 3,515 head with a five-day rolling average of $59.91. Pork Cutouts totaled 203.76 loads with 184.64 loads of pork cuts and 19.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $5.59 at $88.74.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Heavy Selling Should Subside

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures made a valiant effort to regain some of the losses of Friday. Some believed the market was overdone and impacted by lighter holiday trade. That certainly was not the case as selling increased and the market plummeted. Fund liquidation ran rampant for another day but may temper today as this type of selling generally runs for two to three days. Live cattle futures had about a $4.00 price swing on Monday while feeder cattle futures had an $8.00 to $9.00 price swing. The market is oversold, but that does not mean a huge retracement will take place. Packers will use this to their advantage and bid lower this week. Boxed beef showed weakness with choice down $0.78 and select down $0.96. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 2,721 live cattle futures contracts as of November 21^st bringing their net long positions to 35,170 contracts. They sold 1,777 feeder cattle futures moving them to a net short of 458 contracts.

December hog futures were able to close in positive territory as they moved closer to settlement, but the rest of the contracts showed further pressure, taking February nearly $1.00 below December. February, April, and May closed at new contract lows. Hog numbers are sufficient with no apparent tightness of supply. Packers did step up yesterday to purchase hogs after the holiday week as they needed hogs to get back on track with slaughter. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash increasing $1.36 to a weighted average price of $58.85. Cutouts had a strong day with a gain of $4.58 supported by a $17.61 gain in bellies. The strength of cash and cutouts should provide some support to the trade today. The Commitment of Traders report as of November 21^st showed funds selling 13,867 futures contracts moving them to hold a net short position of 416 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures are oversold and should see a bounce as there have been two days of heavy selling.	1)	Traders will not be very willing to step back into the cattle market in a big way as the sell-off has been brutal and the market unpredictable.
2)	Cattle futures hold a substantial discount to cash which likely will not be maintained for very long. Heavy selling should subside.	2)	Cash is expected to trade lower this week as packers will bid lower due to the huge losses in cattle futures.
3)	Stronger cash and cutouts should provide support to the hog market today as traders generally traded the previous days' numbers.	3)	Packers aggressively bid for hogs on Monday, but the pattern has been that that is short-lived and once they procure sufficient supply, cash falls back.
4)	Hog futures are oversold and should see a bounce as nearby months carry a substantial discount to the index.	4)	Demand seems to remain lackluster despite the lower pork prices. This may keep pressure on the market.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Harsh Selling in Futures Continues

GENERAL COMMENTS:

June cattle, May feeder cattle and June lean hogs were all sharply lower Monday, unable to find support after steep sell-offs in November.

LIVE CATTLE:

February live cattle tried to hold steady early, but finished down $2.15 at $168.82 Monday, extending last week's sell-off to their lowest prices since March. Monday's selling likely included more noncommercial liquidation as Monday afternoon's CFTC report showed noncommercials lightened net longs by 4,159 contracts in the week ending Nov. 21, leaving 38,656 net longs still exposed to the last three sessions of selling.

The more interesting thing is that, while cash cattle prices remain under pressure, the declines have not matched the futures board. Monday's report from USDA showed live steers in the five-state area were down $1.05 in the week ending Nov. 24 to an average of $176.77, nearly $8.00 above the February close. Dressed steers were down $2.69 in the same week to $278.73. The discouraging part of Monday's report for cattle bulls was that negotiated volume only totaled 51,288 during Thanksgiving week, a light sign of packer interest.

Despite concerns from some retailers about consumer spending, Forbes reported that Black Friday sales hit a new record high of $9.8 billion and the number of shoppers at stores was estimated a few percent higher than last year. Outside markets have been mostly supportive with the stock market higher and U.S. dollar lower in November.

Choice boxed beef was down 78 cents at $297.25 Monday, while selects were down 96 cents at $267.80 with 106 total loads. USDA estimated Monday's cattle slaughter at 123,000, down from 125,000 last week and 127,000 last year.

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to lower early Tuesday with traders possibly nervous about the deep discount in the futures price.

FEEDER CATTLE:

After a sharp drop of $9.17 last week, January feeder cattle fell another $6.52 Monday to end at $212.80 and is getting close to the contract low of $210.45. Monday afternoon's CFTC data showed noncommercial net shorts increased from 2,543 to 4,236 as of November 21 as specs became more convinced prices were going lower. Similar to live cattle, the January futures prices is now well below the CME Feeder Cattle Index of $225.24 as of Friday and it remains to be seen if the specs are correct or if they have overshot the cash market. It's a small consolation for those feeding cattle, but March corn fell 7 1/4 cents to a new 2023 low of $4.75 1/4 Monday.

Parts of central Kansas received 10 to 14 inches of snow over the weekend, but the rest of the central and southern Plains saw mostly light amounts, presenting no significant problems for travel on the roads. The snow isn't expected to be around long with warmer temperatures returning through the week. Technically speaking, January feeder cattle are in a downward spiral of noncommercial liquidation that is losing track of the cash market but hasn't shown signs of finding support yet.

LEAN HOGS:

February lean hogs closed down $1.85 at a new contract low of $66.92 Monday, influenced by selling in cattle, but also having problems of their own that look like too much supply for the market's level of demand. Monday afternoon's CFTC report showed noncommercials increased net shorts from 10,448 to 16,941 as of November 21, right after the February price broke to a new low in November. Pork slaughter has been robust, running well above the one-year average since mid-September and that was even true during Thanksgiving week. USDA estimated Monday's hog slaughter at 485,000, down slightly from last week's 486,000 and last year's 489,000. Judging by prices, even the higher slaughter pace has not tightened the supplies of available hogs and packers continue to have an easy time securing weekly needs. Monday's national formula price of $71.37 is over $4.00 above the February futures price and remains over $10 above the national negotiated hog price, an obvious sign of poor packer interest for negotiated hogs. The CME Lean Hog Index was projected at $72.33 as of Friday, Nov. 24, roughly $5.00 above the February close.

Needless to say, with slaughter levels humming, packer profitability remains high and was helped by a $4.58 gain in Monday's cutout value, now at $88.75 with 297.72 loads reported. So far, there are no signs of those good times trickling down to hog producers, having one of their worst years in a long time.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady in February hogs after a drop of over $8.00 in four sessions.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Trade Flirts With New Lows in Cattle, Hogs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

On the Monday after Thanksgiving, prices of live cattle, feeders and lean hogs are trading at new lows, still searching for support in the month of November.

LIVE CATTLE:

February live cattle futures are trading down $0.82 at $170.15, extending their lowest prices since March after last week's sell-off marked the February contract down $5.82. Monday's report of weighted averages will be interesting to see as it looked like southern live trade was down roughly $1 to $2 at $176 to $177, while northern dressed trade was just over a dollar lower, mostly near $280. Seeing cash prices hold firmer than the futures is an encouraging sign, and we'll see if negotiated prices showed any better interest from packers last week. Last week's estimated slaughter of 538,000 during Thanksgiving week wasn't unusual for having a day off and Monday's cattle slaughter is estimated at 125,000 by Dow Jones, down from 126,000 last week.

USDA's report on Monday morning showed choice boxed beef at $298.38, staying near $300.00 while selects were up $3.33 to $272.09 with a total load count of 32. Overall, the U.S. economy has been supportive for continued beef demand at the retail counter. Some retailers have expressed concerns about consumer spending, but Forbes reported Black Friday sales at a record high $9.8 billion and store traffic up a few percent from last year.

According to the National Weather Service, parts of central Kansas received 10 to 14 inches of snow over the weekend, but amounts were lighter elsewhere around the central Plains. The snow is not expected to last long as warmer temperatures are expected to return during the week and restore road conditions. The CFTC will release updated information on trader positions Monday afternoon, likely showing more liquidation among specs in cattle. As of Nov. 14, noncommercials were net long 42,815 contracts of live cattle.

FEEDER CATTLE:

January feeder cattle are trading down $3.22 at $216.10, extending last week's loss to their lowest prices since February. In November, January feeders have experienced a harsh sell-off that puts the futures well below the CME Feeder Index, last seen at $226.94 as of Tuesday, Nov. 21. The sell-off that was initially triggered by USDA's report of higher placements in September has turned into a bearish rout in the futures market, even after the CFTC data for Nov. 14 showed noncommercials had exited net longs and have gone slightly net short. Monday afternoon's update as of November 21 is apt to show specs holding a larger net short position. March corn is trading down 8 cents Monday, a small consolation for the sharp drop in feeder prices that shows no sign of slowing down yet.

LEAN HOGS:

February lean hogs are trading down $1.00 at $67.77, another new contract low that is being influenced by Monday's selling in cattle and feeders. The hog market continues to have the look of an over-supplied market with no sign of packers having any trouble securing their weekly needs. Even though U.S. pork exports are up 6% so far in 2023, it also doesn't help to see the national price of hogs in China at 14.41 yuan per kilogram, among its lowest prices since early 2022.

USDA estimated last week's hog slaughter at 2.221 million head, decent activity for the holiday week. Dow Jones estimated Monday's hog slaughter at 485,000 down from 487,000 a week ago and still at an active pace. Monday morning's report of pork cutout values were also encouraging for demand, showing the cutout at $89.63, up from Friday and still well above the prices packers are paying for cash hogs. Monday's higher cutout was supported by a $17.76 gain in bellies and $11.40 increase in picnics. CME's most recent lean hog index was projected at $73.60 for Wednesday, Nov. 22.

Monday morning's Daily Direct afternoon report showed national formula hog prices holding at $71.78 per hundredweight, while negotiated trade remains more than $10 lower at $60.92, a bearish sign of demand from packers. Technically speaking, February hog prices are in an active downtrend, having fallen to their lowest February prices in well over two years. The Covid-related 2020 low of $52.57 seems too low for this market, but there is no sign of support yet.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Bounce After Friday's Fall

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded in line with the direction set earlier in the week with Southern trading $1.00 to $2.00 lower than the previous week at $177 with Northern dressed cattle $1.00 lower at $180. That should not have had the impact seen in the market on Friday. Lighter holiday trade and technical selling took place pushing futures to the lowest level since May in the December live cattle contract and the lowest since March in later contracts. Feeder cattle futures moved to the lowest level since March. There is a good chance futures will rebound to some extent today, but traders may be reluctant to buy back in with any aggressiveness. A positive was that boxed beef was higher on Friday with choice up $1.03 and select up $1.14.

Hogs were under pressure on Friday due to spillover selling as well as fundamental pressure. Cash and cutouts continue to struggle having a difficult time finding consistent support. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.70 pushing the weighted average down to $57.49. Cutouts suffered as well with the value declining $0.51. Packers may want to purchase hogs today more aggressively to make up for lighter activity last week and get back on track for slaughter, but they may not need to be overly aggressive depending on product movement.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures were likely overdone on Friday due to lighter holiday trade and may rebound somewhat today.	1)	The technical breakdown in the cattle market will be difficult to overcome as price bounces may be viewed as selling opportunities by technical traders.
2)	Higher boxed beef on Friday may provide some buying interest today from traders anticipating better demand through the end of the year.	2)	Packers will not be too anxious to bid up for cattle due to the breakdown of futures. They will use it to their advantage.
3)	Packers may step up more aggressively today to purchase hogs now that a full week of slaughter needs to be filled.	3)	Continued weakness of cash hogs will keep pressure on the market. There is little reason for packers to bid up aggressively to purchase supply.
4)	February and later hog futures left a chart gap on the open on Friday that may be filled at some point.	4)	New contract lows in February and April hog futures do not bode well for the market in the near term. It may keep traders cautious over buying back into the market aggressively.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Go Haywire

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Streaky losses in thinly-traded markets on the Friday after Thanksgiving triggered surges of technical selling that exacerbated the already downward trends in live cattle, feeder cattle, and lean hog futures prices. For the nearby feeder cattle contract, that meant weekly losses of more than $9 per cwt, and for certain lean hog contracts, it meant an exploration of fresh contract lows. The catastrophic bearishness doesn't necessarily pass through to the physical market just yet. Cash cattle prices for fed steers and heifers were mostly steady to $1 lower than last week, with live trade in the South taking place at $177 and dressed trade at $280.

The National Direct Afternoon Hog Report showed negotiated swine prices down $1.70 since Wednesday to a weighted average Friday of $57.49 on 2,353 head. Prices ranged from $55 to $60, and the five-day rolling average is now $62.45.

December corn moved down 5 1/2 cents to $4.63 1/4 per bushel and December soybean meal closed down $0.70 per ton to $457.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 117.12 points and the NASDAQ was down 19.38 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle down $5.50, February live cattle down $5.825, January feeder cattle down $9.175, March feeder cattle down $8.25, December lean hogs down $3.40, February lean hogs down $6.675, December corn down 3 1/4 cents, December soybean meal up $4.80.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle futures market moved decidedly lower Friday, accelerating a pre-existing downward trend on the charts. The December contract closed down $4.225 at $170.25; the February contract closed down $4.30 at $170.975, and the April contract closed down $4.35 at $173.30.

Don't blame the cash cattle market for this momentum; actually, prices for fed steers and heifers were mostly steady to $1 lower than last week, with live trade in the South taking place at $177 and dressed trade at $280. It should also be noted that a variety of other outside markets experienced a sell-off during the shortened post-holiday Friday trading session too, including soybeans down 25 cents and crude oil down $1.80. Therefore, there may not be too much to interpret, fundamentally, about Friday's price action in live cattle futures, but nevertheless, bearish traders may not be in any big hurry to correct the losses when activity resumes next week.

Boxed beef prices were higher: choice up $1.03 ($298.03) and select up $1.14 ($268.76), with a movement of only 57 loads (28.33 loads of choice, 17.03 loads of select, 4.20 loads of trim and 7.09 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Monday's activity will likely be limited to the collection of showlists, but packers may use the shock and awe of Friday's futures implosion as a reason to pressure cash cattle prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

A close inspection of the minute-by-minute trading orders that came through the livestock sector Friday shows it was the thinly-traded feeder cattle futures market where the volatility began. That may be no big surprise given the relatively low volume of trade in this market even on a good day, but as the technical triggers on the charts kept popping off, the selling activity accelerated not only for feeder cattle futures, but for other sympathetic markets too. Apparently, no brave buyers were willing to step in and catch a falling knife, as they say.

At the end of the session, the January feeder cattle contract was down $7.80 at $219.325, the March contract was down $7.40 at $222.725, and the April contract was down $7.225 at $226.675. Many auction barns paused their sale schedules this week for the Thanksgiving holiday, but prior to all this futures market excitement, actual cash prices for calves had been staying historically strong. Some bearish sentiment may certainly spill over into next week's business, but remember that ultimately the January feeder cattle futures contract ($219.35) will need to converge with the real prices being paid for calves in the countryside (the CME Feeder Cattle Index at $226.94 as of Nov. 21).

LEAN HOGS:

Pork prices continue to slide lower amid abundant supplies, so it was easy for traders in the lean hog futures market to let these prices slip lower Friday too. The December lean hog contract closed down $0.70 at $67.575; the February contract closed down $3.05 at $68.775; and the April contract closed down $3.30 at $75.275. That April contract, for instance, plumbed a fresh contract low during Wednesday's sell-off, hitting $75.05 at one point during the post-holiday shortened session. Other than a seasonal expectation for hog prices to improve into the winter, it would be hard to argue that the market bears have any fundamental reason to reverse the recent price slide.

The afternoon pork cut-out showed the overall carcass value down $0.51 to $84.17. There were 210.81 total loads (186.27 loads of cuts and 24.53 loads of trim). The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 20: down $0.34, $74.18, and for 11/24: down $0.28, $73.90. This represents an almost uninterrupted $32 slide since the Aug. 1 high of $106.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. There may be a push to make up for this week's lower slaughter volume, but no reason to get wild with higher bids.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Futures Heavily Red

GENERAL COMMENTS:

On the day after Thanksgiving, cattle prices are responding to lower cash trade, while lean hog prices struggle to find enough demand for the country's hogs.

LIVE CATTLE:

February live cattle futures are trading down $3.87 at $171.40, a new seven-month low encouraged by lower cash trade late Wednesday and with sellers taking advantage of low market attention the day after Thanksgiving. DTN reported southern live trade near $177, while northern dressed trade was near $280, both roughly a dollar or more lower than last week. The recent increase in available cattle on feed has pressured prices lower, but there is no sign of herd expansion taking place. February cattle are now down 13% from their September high, the largest correction since the upward move began in 2020.

U.S. cattle and hog futures close early, at 12:05 p.m. Friday, so these midday comments are earlier than usual and don't yet have the boxed beef and pork cutout prices normally reported. Those stats will be included in Friday's closing comments. On Wednesday afternoon, choice boxed beef was at $297.00, a few dollars higher on the week, while selects were at $267.62, a few dollars lower with a total load count of 170 for Wednesday. Dow Jones estimated cattle slaughter at 119,000 for Friday, up from 116,000 a week ago and a good sign of continued demand. Overall, the U.S. economy remains supportive for continued demand at the retail counter and the outlook for interest rates is finally showing signs of softening.

Earlier Friday, USDA said 10,000 metric tons of beef were sold for export last week, with China and Hong Kong named top buyers. So far in 2023, U.S. beef exports are down 15% from a year ago. Colder temperatures have pushed into the northwestern Plains and Friday's radar shows snow in western Nebraska and western Kansas. Kansas is expecting more precipitation on Saturday, but overall, the forecast remains favorable for moving being able to move cattle the next two weeks.

FEEDER CATTLE:

January feeder cattle are trading down $5.82 at $221.30, their lowest price in over seven months, taking cues from this week's lower cash trade in live cattle and likely taking advantage of a lack of eyeballs the day after Thanksgiving. Corn prices are steady Friday and are staying near their lowest levels in 2023. Drought remains a concern in the southwestern Plains, but pasture conditions are much better in the northwestern Plains, heading into winter. Back in the July inventory report, USDA estimated the number of calves under 500 pounds at 26.3 million, 3% less than the previous year. It will be interesting to see what that number looks like at the end of January, but expansion doesn't seem likely yet with more beef cows on feed in the October report.

The latest CME Feeder Cattle Index was at $226.94 for Tuesday, Nov. 21, a few dollars above the January futures price. Wednesday morning's U.S. Drought Monitor showed moisture improvement in Texas, but drought remains a concern in the southwestern Plains and in the western Midwest with a mostly dry forecast ahead.

LEAN HOGS:

February lean hogs are trading down $2.80 at $69.02, extending the low in November and challenging the October low of $69.17, which is also the lowest price for the February contract since February 2021. The hog market continues to have the look of a well-supplied market with no sign of packers having any trouble securing their weekly needs. On Wednesday, USDA's Daily Direct afternoon report showed national formula hog prices holding at $72.98 per hundredweight, while negotiated trade fell to $59.19, suffering a painful lack of attention from packers. Dow Jones estimated Friday's hog slaughter at 469,000 down from 482,000 a week ago, but still an active pace for this holiday week. CME's most recent lean hog index was projected at $74.18 for Monday, Nov. 20.

Earlier Friday, USDA said 26,300 metric tons of pork were sold for export last week with Mexico accounting for just over half the sales. With a month and a half left in 2023, U.S. pork exports are up nearly 6% from a year ago. This year continues to be one of the most unprofitable years for hog producers on record, and a reduction in hog numbers remains likely at some point. One sign of possible support in the market is coming from commercials that CFTC said were net-long 14,461 contracts as of Nov. 14. Commercials have shown more interest when February hog prices dip into the low $70s, but there is no sign yet of the downtrend being over. The next update of CFTC data will take place Monday afternoon, due to this week's Thanksgiving holiday.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Shorter Trading Day May Provide Greater Volatility

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures held in positive territory until the final hour of trade on Wednesday as sellers gained the upper hand pushing contracts into negative territory. The hope for a significant price rebound any time soon seems to be dwindling. Closing the chart gaps remaining above the market will take a monumental effort to accomplish. Cash cattle have not done much so far this week with overall trade in the South $1.00 lower at $177 while dressed cattle traded at the steady price of $280. It is uncertain how active cash activity will be today, but anything that is done may be in line with these prices. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up $1.19 and select down $1.15. Feeder cattle futures are expected to drift today as there will be little, if any, sale barn activity as many have been closed for the week.

Hog futures struggled on Wednesday as there had been hope for better price direction for underlying cash. That did not materialize as the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.84 slipping below $60 to a weighted average price of $59.19. This may have some negative influence on trade today with further pressure possibly coming from the decline of $0.53 for cutouts. Generally, trading activity is light on the day after Thanksgiving but with electronic trade and traders being able to access the market from anywhere, trading activity may be more active. The markets will close an hour earlier, which may keep most of the activity more to the early part of the day. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 344,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There is hope demand for beef will increase into December which would provide support for the market as overall cattle supplies remain tight.	1)	Demand for beef has not been as strong as anticipated with boxed beef reflecting slower demand. International demand has been lighter than desired.
2)	Cattle futures have been able to hold technical support which may result in limited downside price risk if boxed beef finds a floor.	2)	The market will close an hour earlier today, which could keep trading activity light allowing the market to drift lower.
3)	Low prices should cure low prices and cash hogs have been beaten up enough with product prices low enough that demand might be stimulated.	3)	Hog weights continue to increase with the average price last week at 288.0 pounds, up 0.7 pounds from the previous week and 3.6 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	A strong weekly export sales report today may provide some much-needed support to the market.	4)	Hog futures breaking below support earlier in the week makes previous price support now being resistance. Cash is not expected to trend higher in the near term.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Markets Express Thanksgiving for Abundant Supplies, Stable Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The tone of the livestock markets was mostly lower by the end of the trading session on Wednesday, although not with enough energetic selling to significantly alter the charts. Wednesday afternoon's cash cattle trade saw steers and heifers trade in Texas and Kansas at $177 (live basis), with a few go cheaper at $175 and $176. Nebraska steers went for $177 live or $280 on a dressed basis. That was mostly steady with last week's prices.

The National Direct Afternoon Hog Report showed negotiated swine prices down $1.84 to a weighted average of $59.19 on 3,827 head. Prices ranged from $55 to $63, and the five-day rolling average is now $62.97. December corn moved down 1 1/4 cents to $4.68 3/4 per bushel and December soybean meal closed down $1.10 per ton to $458.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 184.74 points and the NASDAQ was up 67.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

When boxed beef prices have been falling like turkeys dropped out of a helicopter, the live cattle market is going to struggle to move higher. Futures prices had mixed success at staying airborne through most of Wednesday's session until the pre-holiday sell-off right at the end. The December contract closed down $0.525 at $174.475; the February contract closed down $0.80 at $175.275, and the April contract closed down $0.575 at $177.65. There does seem to be some support on the December chart to keep nearby futures prices above $173 in recognition of the overall tightness of supply-and-demand in this market, regardless of the day-to-day wrangling about how much profit packers can make or pass on to the feedlots.

Wednesday afternoon's cash cattle business, done before the Thanksgiving holiday, saw prices mostly steady with last week at $177 live basis in the South or $280 dressed basis in the North. 

Both choice and select boxed beef prices have been falling overall through the month of November so far, still waiting for an expected seasonal shift in momentum. Boxed beef prices were mixed Wednesday: choice up $1.19 ($297.00) and select down $1.15 ($267.62), with a movement of 170 loads (114.65 loads of choice, 29.84 loads of select, 11.23 loads of trim and 13.96 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. There doesn't seem to be enough outside influence yet one way or another to break this market out of its comfortable trading range.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Steady prices for corn as the 2023 North American harvest wraps up and volatility for soybeans and soybean meal as the South American crops face uncertainty may prevent feeder cattle futures traders from getting too confident or aggressive in either direction. At the end of the Wednesday session, the January feeder cattle contract was down $1.20 at $227.125, the March contract down $1.10 at $230.125, and the April contract was down $1.00 at $233.90. There was unsurprisingly a pretty low volume of futures trade during this session before a big travel holiday, and most of the price movement occurred toward the end of the session as traders closed out positions. Out in the countryside, too, many cattle sale barns are pausing their weekly auction schedules for Thanksgiving. Otherwise, it's the time of year when the sale barns see large volumes of calves coming through with well-tested prices, and despite the recent slump on the futures chart, the actual values being traded for, say, 600-lb steers in the North remain historically strong at $260 or better. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 20 is $226.76.

LEAN HOGS:

In anticipation of the traditional turkey day holiday, which happens to feature a lot of hams being served on dinner tables instead of turkey or alongside turkey, traders might have expected more enthusiasm for lean hog futures trade Wednesday.

The December lean hog contract closed up $0.10 at $68.275; the February contract closed down $0.50 at $71.825; and the April contract closed down $0.05 at $78.575.

The poultry industry's production volumes continue to be threatened by HPAI during wild birds' migration season, and there is some possibility that the pork industry could benefit as a substitution in grocery shoppers' carts. However, turkey prices will lag in their response to production challenges, and the more immediate influence on pork prices will be the lackluster prospects for exporting U.S. abundant supplies, especially when China is also awash with their own supplies. The afternoon pork cut-out showed the overall carcass value down $0.53 to $84.68, with 336.26 total loads (307.51 loads of cuts and 28.75 loads of trim). The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 17: down $0.57, $74.52, and the projected Index for Nov. 20: down $0.34, $74.18.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Once past the holiday, packers may want to resume a regular slaughter pace.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle, Hogs Quietly Lower Ahead of Thanksgiving

GENERAL COMMENTS:

On the day before Thanksgiving, slaughter paces will slow as cattle prices remain near their lowest level in six months and hog prices are near their lowest levels this year.

LIVE CATTLE:

February live cattle futures are down 30 cents at $175.82, a quiet day of trading the day before Thanksgiving with prices near their lowest levels in six months after on-feed numbers jumped 900 million head the past three months. Despite the higher numbers, there is no sign of herd expansion we can see and, to the contrary, a modest increase in beef cows on feed in October suggests liquidation is still taking place. The weekly slaughter pace remains active, but Dow Jones estimates Wednesday's slaughter at a lower 123,000 in front of Thursday's holiday.

Cash cattle trade has been light so far, with reports of roughly $1.00 to $1.50 lower in Kansas and Nebraska, but not enough yet to reach conclusions. Choice boxed beef prices were up $1.17 Wednesday morning to $296.98, while selects were down $1.78 at $266.99 on 114 total loads, both showing signs of slipping in November as they often do. Lower temperatures are expected to push into the northwestern Plains, starting Thursday, but the forecast is mostly dry the next two weeks, favorable for moving cattle.

FEEDER CATTLE:

January feeder cattle are down a dime at $228.22, also trading quietly at midday, near their lowest prices in six months. As with live cattle, speculators in the feeder market were heavily net long a couple months ago and then sold off sharply, further hit by the surprise of higher placements in USDA's Oct. 20 on-feed report. Specs are now slightly net short and shouldn't be much of a distraction from here.

The latest CME Feeder Cattle Index was at $226.76 for Monday, Nov. 20, a little below the January futures price. Wednesday morning's U.S. Drought Monitor showed moisture improvement in Texas, but drought remains a concern in the southwestern Plains and in the western Midwest with a mostly dry forecast ahead. However, pasture conditions are looking much better this year in the Dakotas and western Nebraska.

LEAN HOGS:

February lean hogs are trading down $0.50 at $71.82, extending a new low in November after falling $2.72 Tuesday, unable to find any buyers willing to go above $78. As far as we can tell, this appears to be a well-supplied market with no sign of packers having any trouble securing their weekly needs for the pork market. USDA's Daily Direct morning report showed national negotiated hog prices at a deep discount of $60.45 and national formula prices at $73.36. CME's most recent lean hog index was projected at $74.18 for Monday, Nov. 20. The weekly slaughter pace has been active, but Wednesday's slaughter is expected to dip to 455,000 ahead of Thanksgiving.

This year continues to be one of the most unprofitable years for hog producers, possibly since 1998, and a reduction in hog numbers seems likely at some point. For now, packers must be ecstatic with the cheap hog prices as pork cutouts are bringing $87.09 Wednesday morning on 196.35 loads. One sign of possible support in the market is coming from commercials that CFTC says were net long 14,461 contracts as of November 14. Commercials have shown more interest when February hog prices dip into the low $70s, but there is no sign yet of the downtrend being over.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Choppy Pre-holiday Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trade should take place today as packers will need to purchase supply ahead of Thanksgiving. Only a handful of trades have been made providing no real direction for cash. The inability of cattle futures to hold gains on Tuesday gives the impression traders are not too hopeful for stronger cash. Sure, the Cattle on Feed report was neutral to friendly, but cash trading may not be influenced by the report. Packers are trying to improve margins as they assess boxed beef movement and prices. Boxed beef prices on Tuesday were mixed with choice up $0.06 and select down $2.18. Feeder cattle made a valiant attempt to trade higher but the inability to gain more than they had earlier in the day triggered more aggressive selling with contracts closing nearer the lows of the day.

Hog futures opened lower and never moved into positive territory throughout the day. Once futures broke below the support of the sideways trading range, more aggressive selling erupted, stops were triggered, and technical selling increased. It was anticipated cash might be lower after the aggressive buying by packers on Monday. Cash was substantially lower as the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $6.19 moving the weighted average to $61.03. Cutouts faltered as well with a decline of $0.88. Futures may see a little short covering ahead of the holiday but likely nothing dramatic. Saturday slaughter is projected at 344,000.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures held technical support on Tuesday bouncing back into the recent trading range. Further short covering could bounce the market.	1)	Cattle futures may have a difficult time trending higher due to demand uncertainty.
2)	Steady cash cattle trade would be supportive and likely increase trader buying interest in futures.	2)	Further weakness in cash cattle could increase the selling of futures ahead of the holiday season.
3)	Traders may not press hog futures further to the downside ahead of the holiday. Recent short positions may be liquidated due to market uncertainty.	3)	Hog futures breaking below support may make it difficult to rebound in the near term.
4)	Lower pork prices should stimulate domestic and international demand, keeping supply from backing up in the market.	4)	Hog futures may remain under pressure the rest of the week as cash is expected to decline further as packers may have purchased much of what they need.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Falter

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Following several weeks of overall supply uncertainty in the cattle markets, Tuesday seemed to be the first day that traders were not overly focused on short- or long-term supply level shifts in the cattle market. This left prices generally unsupported due to limited trade volume, and traders are now focusing on Thanksgiving preparations, and likely early Black Friday savings.

Pressure seen in all livestock contracts through the cattle and hog complex continues to be less directed on a strategic plan to push prices lower and more on overall lack of interest and activity. Hog futures were once again under pressure, but announcements by Chinese officials stating that the Chinese domestic hog herd was "too large" sparked additional concern of support in the pork industry. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $6.19 with a weighted average of $61.03 on 11,401 hogs. December corn closed up 1/2 at $4.7 and January soybean meal closed down $1.30 at $442. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 62.75 at 35,088.29.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures closed lower in limited, but softer trade Tuesday. The back-and-forth shifts in cattle markets over the past couple of weeks have seemingly left some traders weary and looking for a break. The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday is likely to be the break that many of these traders are looking for, with all indications that some traders are willing and able to step out of the market during the holiday week.

Very little fundamental or technical market factors seemed to be focused on Tuesday, as overall lack of buyer support and direction allowed prices to wander lower throughout the trading session. Limited light trade is also expected Wednesday and Friday, which could leave to additional market swings in either direction without any significant driving factors.

Cash cattle trade was still quiet Tuesday afternoon, although a few bids are being offered and passed on at $278 to $280 per cwt dressed basis in Nebraska. Active asking prices are still not widely seen and it may be Wednesday before active interest develops from either side. Both sides would desire to trade cattle before the holiday break, which may put emphasis on late Wednesday activity.

December live cattle closed $0.48 lower at $175., February live cattle closed $0.58 lower at $176.075 and April live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $178.225. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, steady with a week ago and 366,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.06 ($295.81) and select down $2.18 ($268.77) with a movement of 166.37 loads (119.33 loads of choice, 24.67 loads of select, 10.39 loads of trim and 11.98 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. More interest is expected to be seen early Wednesday with the focus on trading cattle before Thanksgiving. Activity levels could develop once both sides focus on agreeable price ranges.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Firm pressure is seen in feeder cattle futures with January and March futures holding triple-digit losses at the closing bell. Very limited direction was seen across the complex, although any sense of buyer activity was hard to find through the Tuesday trading session. It appears that traders seem to be relatively comfortable with where markets are in relation to current supply levels heading through the end of the year and early 2024. Weather conditions in the upcoming weeks and the ability to move unsold feeder cattle through sales barns and into feedlots will likely be a bigger factor through the rest of 2023.

January feeders closed $1.53 lower at $228.325, March feeders closed $1.08 lower at $231.225 and April feeders closed $0.93 lower at $234.9. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Nov. 17: up $0.84, $226.76.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures posted the most significant losses of all livestock trade Tuesday and had the sharpest one-day loss in nearby contracts since early October.

Announcements from China about the size and growth in their domestic hog herd not only put pressure on global pork and hog prices, but also caught the attention of the lean hog complex.

December through April contracts posted losses over $2 per cwt, causing concern of further pressure. The holiday week activity, which limited overall interest and volume in the market, also added to the softness. Trade activity is likely to remain subdued through the entire week, but the swift price losses Tuesday could add to the potential market volatility in the upcoming days.

December lean hogs closed $2.18 lower at $68.175, February lean hogs closed $2.73 lower at $72.325 and April lean hogs closed $2.35 lower at $78.625. Tuesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 13,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 344.96 loads with 300.27 loads of pork cuts and 44.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.88 at $85.21. The CME Lean Hog Index for Nov. 17: down $0.57, $74.52.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Cash markets are expected to remain unsettled through the week. Packers continue to push processing limits early in the week due to the upcoming holiday schedules. Continued pressure in cash values early in the week and futures market softness is likely to add to cash market pressure.