GENERAL COMMENTS:
Lean hog futures have remained quiet once again with narrowly mixed price shifts seen across the complex. Traders continue to be very content staying out of the path of the volatile cattle market, allowing prices to hover within the current but sideways trading range established over the last three weeks in lean hog futures. Cattle futures on the other hand have quickly reversed earlier gains with strong market losses developing in both live cattle and feeder cattle trade. $2 to $3 per cwt losses seem to be containing the current market softness, although continued price volatility is likely to be seen through the end of the week. With the Nov. 1 Cattle on Feed report released after markets close Friday, most of the attention surrounds overall cattle placement levels during October as well as the amount of growth in feedlot numbers during that time. There continues to be a lot of industry uncertainty as to where those numbers will land in the report.
December corn is up 2 3/4 at $4.735 and December soybean meal is down $8.90 at $460.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 136.54 at 34,854.67.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have eroded through Thursday morning as traders start focusing on end of the week position adjustments ahead of Friday's cattle on Feed report. Strong losses seen during the morning has quickly eroded weekly gains, although spot December live cattle futures remain $175 per cwt above where they started Monday, the potential to further erode early gains is likely to continue. Traders remain extremely cautious ahead of expected higher placements and total cattle in feedyards than last year. This may cause some additional volatility if report numbers are not in line with pre-report estimates. Cash cattle markets are quiet Thursday morning following the pressure in futures trade. Light to moderate trade seen Wednesday in the North reported cattle selling at $282 to $285 per cwt, mostly $282. This is $4 per cwt lower than last week's weighted average, and given the building pressure in the market may limit upward market support through the end of the week. It is very likely that more trade may be delayed until either late day Thursday or sometime Friday, possibly even after the afternoon release of the Cattle on Feed report. December live cattle are $1.90 lower at $175.875, February live cattle are $2.58 lower at $176.20, April live cattle are $2.45 lower at $178.025.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.44 ($294.89) and select up $0.93 ($268.78) with a movement of 47.93 loads (25.38 loads of choice, 13.38 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.17 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Active pressure is seen in feeder cattle trade Thursday morning. Traders are starting to focus even more on Friday's cattle on feed report. With increased placement levels expected, there remains a lot of uncertainty of how short-term gains seen early in the week will hold up. November futures remain lightly traded, but 2024 contracts are taking the brunt of morning selling with active losses holding at midday.
November feeders are $0.03 lower at $229.4, January feeders are $3.90 lower at $227. and March feeders are $3.70 lower at $229.8.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures are the stable market of the livestock complex Thursday morning. With most of the attention on either outside markets or the upcoming Cattle on Feed report, the few traders in the hog complex are focused on overall market stability during morning activity. Prices remain mixed in a narrow to moderate range. This lack of market direction is likely to continue through the end of the day, and possibly the end of the week. December lean hogs are $0.15 lower at $70.9, February lean hogs are $0.23 higher at $75.125 and April lean hogs are $0.35 lower at $80.90.
Hog Prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $0.28 with a weighted average of $64.12, ranging from $58.00 to $70.00 on 5,314 head with a five-day rolling average of $64.41. Pork Cutouts totaled 156.73 loads with 128.04 loads of pork cuts and 28.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.86 at $86.18.
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