Thursday's November WASDE report posted reduced overall beef and pork production levels for 2023, while 2024 projection were mixed from the previous month with a strong increase production projected in beef, while moderate to firm pork production losses were seen. This will continue to likely cause concern for beef producers and overall cattle prices in the near future.
Fourth-quarter beef production fell 55 million pounds, creating the expectation of annual production levels falling 44 million pounds from the last month estimate. The focus on increased production of 535 million pounds in 2024 was strongly attributed to gains in first quarter projections accounting for 235 million pounds. The confirmation of these numbers is adding additional bearish influence to overall market prices as traders are focusing on larger-than-expected beef production through most of 2024.
Beef price levels for the fourth quarter of 2023 were unchanged, which also left overall annual price projections unchanged at $177.30 per cwt. Price levels for 2024 were unchanged when it came to annual overall price projections, but first quarter 2024 prices were reduced by $2 per cwt from the previous month while second quarter prices fell $1 per cwt.
Beef Imports for 2023 increased by 36 million pounds from the previous month while total beef supplies fell 8 million pounds. Expected imports in 2024 increased 40 million pounds from last month's estimate, increasing overall 2024 supply issues by 590 million pounds.
Pork Production posted moderate to strong production losses from the previous month for both 2023 and 2024. Annual pork production is expected to fall 72 million pounds in 2023 from October's estimate, while annual pork production in 2024 is estimated to be reduced 165 million pounds from previous month's levels. This is expected to create some additional support through the lean hog complex long term, but there remains the need to sustain current values based on short term demand.
Hog prices were actually reduced on an annual level in both 2023 and 2024, with fourth quarter prices falling $3 per cwt in the latest report. First quarter 2024 hog prices were also reduced by $3 per cwt, and currently based on current hog numbers in the pipeline and the potential for this to put pressure on short term market levels.
Pork imports for 2023 increased 9 million pounds from the previous month estimate but were unchanged for 2024 from October levels. The small adjustments in imports are not expected to be a major focus following the moderate to firm overall reduction in pork production for both 2023 and 2024 from October levels.
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