Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Heading into Easter Weekend the Contracts Closed Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a good day for the livestock complex as the contracts closed higher and this morning's export report was at least strong for the hog complex. Yes, cash cattle trade was lower this past week, but only by $2.00 to $3.00. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.21 with a weighted average price of $81.47 on 4,390 head. May corn is up 15 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 47.29 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 12,700 mt for 2024 were up 15% from the previous week and 4% from the previous 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (3,400 mt), Japan (3,400 mt) and China (2,000 mt). Pork net sales of 55,300 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year high -- were up 64% from the previous week and 74% from the prior 4-week weighted average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (32,800 mt), Japan (5,700 mt) and Australia (5,400 mt).

**The markets will be closed on Friday, March 29. DTN market commentary will resume on Monday, April 1. Happy Easter! **

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to round out the week on a higher note as all of the contracts closed higher despite cash prices trading lower and the morning's export report being lukewarm. April live cattle closed $1.40 higher at $185.00, June live cattle closed $1.57 higher at $180.25 and August live cattle closed $1.52 higher at $178.20. Some more cash cattle trade began to develop around the noon hour and Southern live cattle were marked at $186 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle were marked at $299 to $300 which is $2.00 to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.22 (308.36) and select up $2.74 ($301.17) with a movement of 149 loads (97.07 loads of choice, 13.79 loads of select, 13.43 loads of trim and 24.53 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that there could still be some clean-up trade on Friday, it's tough to tell what next week's market will do.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn complex closed $0.15 to $0.16 higher in its nearby contracts as the USDA's March planting survey showed that corn plantings were estimated at 90 million acres, which is less than expected and down from the 94.6 million a year ago. At first, the corn complex's price increase sent feeders trading lower, but by the day's end feeders were able to regain their strength as the live cattle complex lent some technical support. April feeders closed $0.25 higher at $247.12, May feeders closed $0.42 higher at $248.70 and August feeders closed $0.92 higher at $258.82. At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota compared to last week feeder steers weighing 900 to 1,000 pounds sold steady to $5.00 higher, feeder heifers sold steady to $1.00 higher, but lighter weight heifers traded softer. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 88%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/27/2024: down $2.24, $248.99.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ran higher through Thursday's end as the market was well supported by the morning's export report and found mixed news in Tuesday's Hogs and Pigs report, which you can access here:

The report will likely be found as neutral to somewhat bearish given that there are more hogs than expected, and that there are more hogs to market this summer than anticipated. But the breeding herd did show a decrease in sows as profitability in 2023 was nearly impossible for most producers. April lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $86.62, June lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $101.45 and July lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $104.00. Pork cutouts totaled 226.89 loads with 202.46 loads of pork cuts and 24.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.46, $94.52. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago but 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/26/2024: up $0.56, 84.25.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers will be coming off a long weekend, it's likely that they show Monday's market substantial interest.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Keep Trading Higher on Strong Export Sales

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the live cattle and lean hog contracts are trading mildly higher, but the feeder cattle complex can't trade higher while corn prices are up $0.13 to $0.15. No new cash cattle trade has been reported yet, but packer interest is expected to develop throughout the day. May corn is up 15 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23.21 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 12,700 mt for 2024 were up 15% from the previous week and 4% from the previous 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (3,400 mt), Japan (3,400 mt) and China (2,000 mt). Pork net sales of 55,300 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year high -- were up 64% from the previous week and 74% from the prior 4-week weighted average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (32,800 mt), Japan (5,700 mt) and Australia (5,400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading higher as the market is hoping that today's cash cattle trade will fight for steady prices. There were some cattle traded in the South at $186 plus Wednesday afternoon, but there weren't enough traded to say that the market has established any sort of trend. Packers would love to move the week's weighted average down $1.00 or $2.00, but feedlots are equally convicted to keeping prices as strong as possible. Asking prices in the South are noted at $186 plus, and in the North at $300 to $302. April live cattle are up $0.72 at $184.32, June live cattle are up $0.85 at $179.47 and August live cattle are up $0.90 at $177.57.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.28 ($308.30) and select up $2.68 ($301.11) with a movement of 88 loads (62.09 loads of choice, 9.14 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 16.31 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With nearby corn prices rallying $0.13 to $0.15, the feeder cattle complex is back in retreat mode as the market hits another hurdle. The live cattle complex is trading higher and lending some technical support, but with corn prices up considerably, feeders aren't finding much support in today's market. April feeders are down $0.50 at $246.37, May feeders are down $0.57 at $247.70 and August feeders are up $0.07 at $257.97.

LEAN HOGS:

Given the marketing year high reported in this morning's export report, the lean hog complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour with expectations that the day's supportive nature will continue through the afternoon and into the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. April lean hogs are up $0.87 at $86.90, June lean hogs are up $0.70 at $102.27 and July lean hogs are up $0.57 at $104.55. Demand is also spilling in from the morning's higher note in pork cutout values, which is surprising given that the rib alone dropped $7.02.

The projected lean hog index for 3/27/2024 is up $0.39 at $84.64 and the actual index for 3/26/2024 is up $0.56 at $84.25. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.48 with a weighted average price of $81.50, ranging from $74.50 to $84.00 on 2,345 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.89. Pork cutouts total 119.59 loads with 101.74 loads of pork cuts and 17.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.71, $94.77.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - A Day Full of Reports

GENERAL COMMENTS:

After three days of liquidation, the selling ran its course and traders bought back into the market Wednesday. Futures may be overdone to the downside unless cash falls over the next few weeks. Some light cash activity took place Wednesday, which was up to $3.00 lower. It may not have been enough to set the stage for the week, but it does indicate cash will be steady to lower. The bearish Cattle on Feed report and the sharp decline of futures set the stage for lower cash. Boxed beef prices showing weakness also may be a factor even though overall boxed beef prices have increased significantly recently. Boxed beef Wednesday was lower with choice down $2.51 and select down $1.83. Thursday is the final day for trading futures this week with the markets closed Friday.

Hogs tried to push higher, trying to regain the losses of last week, but could not hold the highs. December and later contracts made new highs before falling back to slightly negative levels. Trading activity is expected to be choppy Thursday as traders will position themselves ahead of the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. The average trade estimate for all hogs and pigs on March 1 is 100.0% of a year ago, kept for breeding at 97.0%, and kept for marketing at 100.4%. The expectation is for continued reduction in the breeding herd, which would provide ongoing support to the market. Both cash and cutouts did not do well Wednesday. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.37 with a weighted average of $79.26 with cutouts declining $1.27. I don't think this will have much impact on the market Thursday as traders look ahead to the report.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Heavy liquidation lasting three days seems to have run its course. The cattle market may be overdone to the downside and may recover some of the loss.	1)	The large decline of cattle futures this week may have a difficult time recovering if cash cattle trade lower this week and maybe next week.
2)	Even with the decline of boxed beef Wednesday, prices remain high due to solid demand. This is not expected to change in the near term.	2)	Much of the attention of traders may be toward the Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks report released Thursday and looking ahead to the 3-day weekend. This may limit price movement in cattle futures.
3)	The ongoing decline of the hog breeding herd is expected to provide support to the market as the year continues.	3)	If weekly pork export sales are lower than last week, there could be some pressure put on the market.
4)	There has been an increasing demand for pork, which has kept packers more aggressive and slaughter pace higher.	4)	Any part of the Hogs & Pigs report construed as negative could send futures lower as liquidation might be triggered.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Find Mild Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts were able to close slightly higher following Tuesday's sharp descent. The cash cattle market still hasn't seen much trade develop -- but packer interest should improve by Thursday. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.37 with a weighted average price of $79.26 on 3,044 head. May corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 477.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to round the day out on a higher note – but given the severity of Tuesday's decline, today's higher end is hardly worth noting. Traders allowed the contracts to rally mildly, but with cash cattle prices expected to be lower than last week's record high, traders won't likely do much more with the futures complex ahead of the weekend. April live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $183.60, June live cattle closed $0.30 higher at $178.67 and August live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $176.67. There's been a handful of trade reported in the South at $185 which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Bids of $296 are currently being offered in the North but no dressed trade has been reported at this point. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $188 plus, and asking prices are still not established in the North.

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago but 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.51 ($308.58) and select down $1.83 ($298.43) with a movement of 166 loads (103.87 loads of choice, 24.00 loads of select, 5.45 loads of trim and 32.19 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 lower. Packer interest will need to improve on Thursday, and even though prices are currently being noted at $3.00 lower in the South, there's still a chance that prices could trade closer to last week's weighted average before the week's trade is all said and done.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was also able to regain some market position following Tuesday's landslide. The nearby contracts of April and May say the biggest gains, but then the entire complex did round out the day higher. Sales in the countryside seemed to be a little stronger today and it's worth noting how strong cull bull and cow prices are. At Winter Livestock in Dodge City today a high-yielding cull bull brought $1.75 per pound! April feeders closed $1.42 higher at $246.87, May feeders closed $1.02 higher at $248.27 and August feeders closed $0.80 higher at $257.90. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas compared to last week feeder steers weighing 850 to 950 pounds traded steady to $4.00 higher. Steers weighing 650 to 850 pounds sold unevenly steady. Steer calves weighing 450 to 650 pounds sold $8.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 450 to 900 pounds traded $4.00 to $8.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold steady to $3.00 higher, and slaughter bulls sold $10.00 to $12.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 78%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/26/2024: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex mostly kept with its rallying nature through Wednesday's end although the deferred contracts pulled back ever so slightly. The market seems to be holding its breath until the veil is pulled back on Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. I'm not certain that the report will be bullish enough to take out the market's long-term resistance, but hog enthusiasts can hope. Export sales will also play a big role in Thursday's trade direction. Pork cutout prices closed lower again but no one cut was to blame as the market saw a decline in the vast majority of the cuts. April lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $86.10, June lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $101.60 and July lean hogs closed $0.12 lower at $103.97. Pork cutouts totaled 230.10 loads with 190.15 loads of pork cuts and 39.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.27, $94.06. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/25/2024: up $0.21, $83.69.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that tomorrow is the last trading day of the week and packers are going into a long holiday weekend, it's unlikely that they show Thursday's cash market much interest.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Trade Lower While Hogs Keep Grinding Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is still mixed as the market hasn't seen enough fundamental support Wednesday to push the cattle contracts higher, all while the lean hog market keeps with its steady upward trend. No cash cattle trade has developed yet but bids are on the table in both regions. May corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 225.35 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to trade lower as the market isn't strong enough on its own to trade higher. If the cash cattle market would commit to trading higher, then there's a chance the futures complex would follow suit; but there's yet to be any cash cattle traded. Bids of $184 to $185 are currently being offered in the South, and bids of $296 are being offered in the North. But feedlots would ideally like higher prices and aren't willing to hand over their showlists for cheaper money just yet. April live cattle are down $0.10 at $183.00, June live cattle are down $0.55 at $177.82 and August live cattle are down $0.45 at $175.97.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.22 ($309.87) and select down $1.05 ($299.21) and with a movement of 93 loads (59.27 loads of choice, 10.67 loads of select, 4.93 loads of trim and 18.30 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex has toyed with the idea of trading mildly higher, but the market can't seem to muster enough support to consistently do so. Currently the nearby contracts are the most confident and are trading slightly higher, but the rest of the market is keeping with Tuesday's lower tone. It would help if the live cattle complex were trading higher, but with no cash cattle trade having developed -- that market isn't brave enough to trade higher either. April feeders are up $0.12 at $245.57, May feeders are down $0.47 at $246.77 and August feeders are down $0.65 at $256.45.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with its steady upward grind as the market anxiously awaits Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. I am surprised traders are as confident as they are given that pork cutout values closed lower Tuesday afternoon and are lower again Wednesday morning. April lean hogs are up $0.55 at $86.12, June lean hogs are up $0.35 at $101.70 and July lean hogs are up $0.22 at $104.07.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/26/2024 is up $0.56 at $84.25, and the actual index for 3/25/2024 is up $0.22 at $83.69. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.00 at $80.02, ranging from $76.00 to $83.00 on 1,404 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.72. Pork cutouts total 132.28 loads with 106.80 loads of pork cuts and 25.48 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.60, $94.73.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Trader Psychology Drives Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures pancaked lower as long liquidation gripped the market and sell stops were hit. As futures declined, increased technical selling took place. Some of the pressure stemmed from the bearish numbers on the Cattle on Feed report, but some was fear of what the discovery of bird flu in dairy cattle could mean for the industry. The concern over bird flu was just a psychological reaction as it really could be construed as bullish to the market. If it becomes more of a widespread issue, it could be very bullish as affected cattle would lose weight, which would delay marketing and tighten beef supply further. It could also impact nursing calves. However, uncertainty plays a large role in the commodity markets. Cattle futures did bounce back from the lows, which could bring buyers back in if cash would trade higher again this week. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $0.20 and select down $1.70. Cash cattle have yet to trade this week.

Hog futures were able to shun much of the spillover pressure from the cattle complex. However, traders could not find much positive news either, resulting in a mixed close. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.54 with a weighted average of $80.63. Cutouts were also lower with a decline of $0.41. Combining the weakness of cash and cutouts with the upcoming Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday, trading activity might be mostly choppy. Thursday will also be the last day of trading before an extended weekend. Packers may have purchased most of their supply for the week, which may leave them unaggressive Wednesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The huge decline in cattle futures Tuesday may have been more tied to emotional trading rather than fundamental trading.	1)	Technical damage was done to cattle futures. This may be difficult to overcome anytime soon as traders may be cautious about buying back into the market. Follow-through selling may take place.
2)	There is some anticipation cash cattle may trade higher this week, which would support futures immensely after the huge selloff Tuesday.	2)	Cash cattle should begin to trade Wednesday, and lower prices would solidify and support lower futures.
3)	Hog futures were able to hold much of the strong gains on Monday and held up well Tuesday against spillover pressure from cattle.	3)	Hog traders will position themselves ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report to be released Thursday. This may keep futures choppy.
4)	Hog futures may remain sideways through the end of the week, possibly building support.	4)	Packers may have purchased most of the hogs they need for the week, which may keep them less aggressive in the cash market.

 

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Sharply Lower as Fear and Anxiousness Set into Traders' Minds

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mentally exhausting day watching the livestock complex trade as the cattle complex ran sharply lower as concerns, fear and nervousness set into traders' minds with HPAI currently affecting some dairy cows in the Southern Plains. The hog complex was able to maintain most of its position and continues to look forward to Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.54 with a weighted average price of $80.63 on 5,309 head. May corn is down 5 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 31.31 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Today was a perfect example of how the market can quickly fall into the Chicken Little trap of "the sky is falling" mentality. The live cattle complex didn't suffer as gravely as the feeder cattle contracts did, but still, the live cattle market closed mostly $3.00 lower. April live cattle closed $3.10 lower at $183.10, June live cattle closed $3.22 lower at $178.37 and August live cattle closed $3.55 lower at $176.42. The cash cattle market could be a supportive factor that the futures complex desperately needs if it's able to trade higher again this week. Time will tell, but as of this point, no sizeable volume of cattle has traded. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago but steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.20 ($311.09) and select down $1.70 ($300.26) with a movement of 122 loads (62.29 loads of choice, 24.62 loads of select, 12.72 loads of trim and 22.56 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 higher. Packers may be building up supply, but the fact remains that showlists are still current and that with consumer demand as strong as it is -- they're going to keep procuring cattle.

FEEDER CATTLE:

If we want to look at today's market through a "glass half full" perspective, at least the feeder cattle contracts didn't close limit lower. But besides that fact, the market wasn't able to accomplish much else good throughout Tuesday's trade. I personally struggle with days like today because it seems like more and more often, the market and the traders and participants within the market like to react first and drive prices lower, and then think and ask questions. I understand that the HPAI flu that's affecting some dairy cattle is somewhat alarming. But isn't it overdone to push the market $4.00 to $5.00 lower when the USDA shared that consumers aren't at risk and the cattle affected are showing relatively minor side effects (a decrease in appetite and milk production decreased by 10-20%) and fully recover within seven to ten days? Whether it is or isn't overdone, the market traded lower throughout the day as fear and nervousness took hold of trader's interest like a thief in the night.

April feeders closed $5.00 lower at $245.45, May feeders closed $5.37 lower at $247.25 and August feeders closed $5.07 lower at $257.10. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder steers traded $3.00 to $6.00 lower and feeder heifers traded $4.00 to $8.00 lower. Steer calves sold steady to $5.00 lower while heifer calves traded steady to $2.00 lower. The sale report did note that it appeared as though grass buyers had pulled out of the market as seven weight steers and six weight heifers that would normally go to grass traded sharply lower. The CME feeder cattle index 3/25/2024: down $0.07, $251.63.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex may have faced a little bit of pushback in some of the market's nearby contracts, but all in all the market was able to close mostly higher as the market's deferred contracts didn't bat an eye at the market's turmoil. April lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $85.57, June lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $101.35 and July lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $103.85. It's disappointing that pork cutout values closed lower as traders need continuous fundamental support if they're going to continue to advance the market and potentially take on the current resistance threshold at $103 in the June contract. The belly was the biggest reason why pork cutout values closed lower this afternoon as prices fell $10.36 lower there. Pork cutouts totaled 267.81 loads with 229.04 loads of pork cuts and 38.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.41, $95.33. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head – 1,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/22/2024: down $0.09, $83.48.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Packers did buy slightly more hogs in today's cash market which could indicate that they need more supply, but with pork cutout values closing lower, I doubt that they'll be too aggressive in advancing the cash market.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Nervousness Drives Cattle Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

As an analyst and as a cattle producer myself, I hate days like these in the market. Not simply because prices are sharply lower, but more so because fear and panic spread quickly throughout the marketplace and instead of stopping the chaos and thinking through the matters at hand, cattlemen, news outlets, and traders all seem to lose their minds on lower days like today and personally contribute to the market's downturn.

Tuesday's pressure could be stemming from the bird flu that's affecting dairy cattle in Texas and Kansas, even though USDA has publicly announced the flu poses no risk to consumer health and the cattle are recovering within seven to 10 days. Or Tuesday's selloff could be more technically driven as the spot June contract is trading below the market's 40-day moving average, which could have triggered some day-trading pressure. Or it could just be a knee-jerk reaction, because why not? It is Tuesday after all. Regardless of the rhyme or reason, Tuesday's a down day, and the market doesn't care what you or I think, it's going to do whatever it wants to do. May corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 90.29 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading lower but thankfully these contracts aren't seeing the same type of down pressure feeders are. Even though Tuesday's trade seems heavy and problematic, I'd like to remind you prices are historically high and we've yet to see any cash cattle trade. If trade can develop for steady or higher money, the week's turmoil may be calmed. April live cattle are down $2.15 at $184.15, June live cattle are down $2.25 at $179.40 and August live cattle are down $2.82 at $177.15. No bids or asking prices are available yet, and it is likely trade will be delayed until Wednesday afternoon or Thursday.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.37 ($311.26) and select down $1.52 ($300.44) with a movement of 76 loads (33.19 loads of choice, 13.74 loads of select, 8.64 loads of trim and 20.02 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are leading the downward trend in the cattle complex as currently the nearby contracts are anywhere from $3.00 to $5.00 lower. Bluntly said, the market is having a morning meltdown as the Chicken Little effect -- "the sky is falling" -- seems to have the cattle market's full attention. I find Tuesday's reaction to be completely overdone as the market's fundamentals haven't changed an ounce. April feeder cattle are down $4.80 at $245.70, May feeders are down $5.20 at $247.42 and August feeders are down $4.35 at $257.82.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex isn't giving a hoot about the HPAI flu affecting the cattle contracts as it continues to slowly grind higher. More than anything, the hog complex hopes to find a fruitful day in Thursday's market as an export sales report and the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be shared. April lean hogs are up $1.17 at $86.32, June lean hogs are up $0.65 at $102.32 and July lean hogs are up $0.72 at $104.65. Consumer support was strong in Monday's market, but unfortunately midday pork cutout values are slightly lower. The market could see a change in prices before Tuesday's afternoon report.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/25/2024 is up $0.22 at $83.69, and the actual index for 3/22/2024 is down $0.12 at $83.48. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $81.02, ranging from $75.00 to $83.00 on 3,259 head, and a five-day rolling average of $80.88. Pork cutouts total 148.78 loads with 128.42 loads of pork cuts and 20.36 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.22, $95.52.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs May See Further Strength

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened lower Monday due to the bearish implications of the Cattle on Feed report. However, contacts pushed back into positive territory before falling back again near the level where they opened. Some of the bearishness of the report had already been factored in, which may provide some more aggressive buying interest Tuesday. The February Cold Storage report showed beef in storage was down from January and from a year ago, but the storage report should not have much impact on trading activity Tuesday. Boxed beef prices were slightly higher with choice up $0.17 and select up $0.49. There have not been any cash cattle traded, but trade may take place earlier this week due to Good Friday. Packers may want to wrap up business early.

Hog futures regained much of what was lost during the last-half of last week on Monday. Liquidation seems to have overcorrected the market with traders stepping back to take advantage of the lower prices. Strong cash and cutouts indicated pork prices remain supported. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.87, bringing the weighted average price up to $81.17. That was supported by cutouts posting a gain of $2.36 with bellies up $13.18. The packers may remain aggressive in the cash market Tuesday as they want to purchase hogs early. February cold storage of pork supplies was down from the previous month and the previous year. Bellies in storage were slightly higher than in January but below a year ago. The Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report will be released on Thursday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The fact that cattle did not fall further and did try to rally Monday may indicate the Cattle on Feed numbers are already factored in.	1)	Cattle futures tried to come back from the losses on Monday, but that quickly ran out of steam, allowing futures to fall back. It may be difficult to regain the uptrend.
2)	Traders may be willing to buy this break as the overall fundamentals of the cattle market look supportive.	2)	Cash cattle may trade steady this week, which may keep a lid on upside price potential.
3)	Hog futures have corrected from being overbought and traders have turned buyers again as the market may have been overdone to the downside.	3)	Hog futures rebounded from the recent liquidation but may have a difficult time regaining the losses of last week to resume the uptrend.
4)	Cash hogs continue to remain supported as packers need to maintain an increased slaughter pace and need to bid up to obtain the hogs they need.	4)	Hog futures may move sideways at best for a period as the market may be balanced with supply and demand.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Look for Support Following Friday's Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts fought some pressure, but the lean hog complex rallied throughout the day. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, up $1.87 with a weighted average price of $81.17 on 1,965 head. May corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 158.65 points.

Monday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 4% from the previous month and down 13% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 6% from last month and down 12% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 1% from the previous month and down 12% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 2% from last month but still down 10% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a mundane day for the live cattle complex as the market never found the momentum it desired throughout the day's trade. April live cattle closed $1.30 lower at $186.20, June live cattle closed $1.30 lower at $181.60 and August live cattle closed $1.52 lower at $179.97. The market is at a holing point as traders are aware that with packers able to buy some cattle with time last week all while processing speeds are running at a reduced pace, that packers have positioned themselves to have more supplies readily available. The question is, do they possess enough cattle this week to keep cash cattle prices from trading higher? Time will tell, but trade won't likely develop until sometime after Wednesday. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle averaged $302, which is $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and surpasses the previous high made June 9, 2023, at $299.51 in Nebraska and $298.65 in Iowa. And Southern live cattle also saw tremendous support as prices averaged $188, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average which had just set a record high for the Southern Plains as Texas averaged $187.96 and Kansas averaged $185.79. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 98,759 head. Of that 70% (69,000 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 30% (29,759 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.17 ($310.89) and select up $0.49 ($301.96) with a movement of 108 loads (58.37 loads of choice, 17.48 loads of select, 5.71 loads of trim and 26.26 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's likely that the cash cattle market's best situation this upcoming week is steady trade. Packers were able to buy a considerable volume last week in the cash market (the largest weekly volume since October 2023).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was never able to gain a strong footing in Monday's market – which was partly expected given that Friday's COF report was heavy for the market to absorb and given that the live cattle complex closed lower. To the market's advantage, however, is that the snowstorm that passed through the Northern Plains this past weekend hit a lot of summer cow-calf ground which should help with moisture conditions. If the cash cattle market trades steady this upcoming week, the feeder cattle complex could be hard pressured for the technical support it longs for. April feeders closed $1.05 lower at $250.45, May feeders closed $1.15 lower at $252.62 and August feeders closed $2.37 lower at $262.17. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading steady to $7.00 lower and feeder heifers were trading $6.00 lower to $7.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 47%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/22/2024: up $0.05, $83.59.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex powered through Monday's trade with all the market's contracts being able to round out the day higher. It helped matters that both the cash market and pork cutout values closed higher -- which traders need to consistently see if they're going to take on the market's resistance. Thursday will be a big-hitting day for the complex with both export data and a Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report released. April lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $85.15, June lean hogs closed $1.97 higher at $101.67 and July lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $103.92. Pork cutouts totaled 274.88 loads with 240.20 loads of pork cuts and 34.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.36, $95.74. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/21/2024: up $0.32, $251.70.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values higher, packers could be more aggressive in Tuesday's cash market.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Dominate Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mixed as the cattle contracts trade hesitantly and the lean hog market charges onward. With packers able to buy 98,000 head last week, the cash market may not be able to trade higher this week. May corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 124.59 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Between digesting what to do with last Friday's Cattle on Feed report and realizing packers were able to buy quite a few cattle with time last week -- traders have been slow to show the live cattle complex much interest. April live cattle are down $0.70 at $186.80, June live cattle are down $0.20 at $182.70 and August live cattle are down $0.47 at $181.02. It's likely traders will shake off the COF report by Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest. But if the cash cattle market isn't able to trade at least steady this week, traders may grow concerned about the lack of cash support. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week Northern dressed cattle averaged $302, which is $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and surpasses the previous high made June 9, 2023, at $299.51 in Nebraska and $298.65 in Iowa. And Southern live cattle also saw tremendous support as prices averaged $188, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average which had just set a new record high for the Southern Plains as Texas averaged $187.96 and Kansas averaged $185.79. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 98,759 head. Of that 70% (69,000 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 30% (29,759 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.29 ($311.01) and select up $0.57 ($302.04) with a movement of 56 loads (31.11 loads of choice, 7.20 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 17.55 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed as the market is trying to gain its footing after last Friday's Cattle on Feed Report. We all knew the report was going to showcase greater placements than a year ago given the weather circumstances of this past January, but the report showed placements up 10%, which is significant. Thankfully, traders have kept a level head thus far through Monday's trade and they're currently letting the nearby contracts trade higher while some of the deferred months trade lower. April feeders are up $0.50 at $252.00, May feeders are up $0.42 at $254.20 and August feeders are down $0.50 at $264.05.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading higher as the market anxiously is running into the new week. April lean hogs are up $0.20 at $84.77, June lean hogs are up $1.60 at $101.30 and July lean hogs are up $1.62 at $103.70. It is helping that pork cutout values are higher at midday, but in order to consistently trade higher traders will need to see more stable consumer demand this week. As a side note, on Thursday the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/22/2024 is down $0.12 at $83.48, and the actual index for 3/21/2024 is up $0.05 at $83.59. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality issues. We can however see that 1,220 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $80.61. Pork cutouts total 177.79 loads with 159.31 loads of pork cuts and 18.48 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.27, $95.65.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Expected to Open Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was anticipated there would be some positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report as traders that had profits would want to preserve those profits. Feeder cattle were under the most pressure with May falling $4.30. There was concern, fearing another bearish surprise on the report, and traders were not disappointed. On-feed numbers came very close to the trade estimate of 100.8% with the actual number at 101.0%. The placements in February were bearish with the actual 110.0% compared to the average estimate of 106.3%. Marketings were slightly less at 103.0% with the estimate at 103.9%. The market will likely react negatively to the numbers, but some of it has been factored in. The initial negative reaction may be short-lived. Cutouts took a hit Friday with choice down $3.01 and select down $2.26. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders as net sellers of 617 futures contracts, bringing their net-long position to 66,730 long contracts for live cattle. Funds were net buyers of 1,287 futures contracts in feeder cattle bringing their net-long position to 10,622 contracts.

Hogs were able to eke out a higher close in all contracts except nearby April. The selling pressure finally subsided, but it may be difficult to rebound unless there is continued strength of both cash and cutouts. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $1.00, reducing the weighted average to $79.30. However, cutouts offset the cash decline with a gain of $2.29 with ribs showing the greatest gain. Packers may be more aggressive early this week, paying higher cash as they will want to purchase hogs due to Good Friday, which may result in a down day or at least reduced slaughter for some plants. Weekend retail demand will dictate aggressiveness. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds reducing their net-long futures position in hogs to 61,726 contracts, down 1,322 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle traded higher last week with market-ready cattle supply current. Reduced slaughter has not backed up cattle in the country.	1)	The substantially larger placement number on the Cattle of Feed report may put further selling pressure on the market.
2)	The Senate vote to ban beef from Paraguay now moves to the House for a vote. If approved, this beef would not enter the U.S. supply chain.	2)	Feeder cattle futures are in a downtrend and may remain that way after the report on Friday.
3)	The selling pressure seems to have subsided with the hog market now looking to regain support. This may increase traders' interest in buying into the market.	3)	Hog futures will have a tough time regaining the losses that were seen last week as traders are concerned over consistent demand.
4)	Hog futures have corrected their overbought technical position. This may increase the buying interest of futures.	4)	It is a holiday-shortened week which may leave packers less aggressive in the cash market.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Drop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a tough day for the cattle complex as traders braced themselves for the afternoon's Cattle on Feed (COF) report, but the lean hog complex did finally find some support ahead of Friday's end. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1 with a weighted average price of $79.30 on 3,553 head. May corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $5.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 305.47 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $0.25, June live cattle down $0.70; March feeder up $0.68, April feeder cattle down $0.63; April lean hogs down $2.35, June lean hogs down $2.77; May corn up $0.03, July corn up $0.03.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a rough day for the live cattle complex. Between boxed beef prices closing lower and Friday's COF report showing greater placements, the market hit a bit of a bump. The report will likely be viewed as bearish as placements were 110% off a year ago. Click here to view DTN's COF comments:

Even with the cash cattle market thriving and seeing historically high prices, traders ran out of support technically throughout the week and even tested support levels in the spot June contract as the market came close to closing below its 40-day moving average.

April live cattle closed $0.87 lower at $187.50, June live cattle closed $1.60 lower at $182.90 and August live cattle closed $1.77 lower at $181.50. The cash cattle market didn't see much more cash cattle trade develop as packers did most of their buying Thursday. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $188, $2 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at $302, $4 higher than last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 14,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 598,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 29,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.01 ($310.72) and select down $2.26 ($301.47) with a movement of 85 loads (54.80 loads of choice, 6.70 loads of select, 7.70 loads of trim and 15.81 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. With showlists current, packers could end up paying more money again next week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex tucked its tail and ran lower ahead of Friday's end. Traders expected the COF report to be heavy as placements were expected to be larger than a year ago so nervousness set into the market ahead of Friday's end. April feeders closed $3.12 lower at $251.50, May feeders closed $4.30 lower at $253.77 and August feeders closed $3.85 lower at $264.55. It's likely that come Monday, the market will trade lower again as traders will likely still be fixated on the COF report.

The Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that throughout the entire states and when compared to a week ago, steers and heifers over 550 pounds traded $3 to $5 higher. Steers and heifers under 550 pounds sold $8 to $15 higher with instances up to $25 stronger. Slaughter cows sold $5 to $7 higher and slaughter bulls traded steady to $4 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index March 21: Not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

After being pressured throughout the earlier part of the week, the lean hog complex finally found some technical support in Friday's market. The spot April contract still closed lower, but the rest of the marketplace rounded out the week on a higher note. It did help that pork cutout values also rounded out the day higher, which was largely because of the $11.42 jump in the rib which continues to be a volatile cut at this point.

April lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $84.57, June lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $99.70 and July lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $102.07. Pork cutouts totaled 234.26 loads with 194.58 loads of pork cuts and 39.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.29, $94.37. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 41,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 95,000 head. The CME lean hog index March 20: up $0.33, $83.54.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's likely that packers vaguely show interest in Monday's cash market, buying up enough hogs to supply their day's needs but not to the point in which prices turn higher.

 

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Hesitate Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex is braced for this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report expected to showcase higher placements, which normally negatively impacts the market. No more cash cattle trade has developed until some more clean-up trade could develop ahead of the week's end. May corn is down 2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $5.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 218.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to trade lower as the market expects this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report to showcase greater placements. Even though the industry logically understands why placements were greater in February -- because of weather delays prolonging placements in January -- the market still is uneasy heading into Friday afternoon. No more cash cattle sales have been reported at this point, but, likely, some more clean-up trade develops ahead of the week's end.

So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded for $188, $2 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $302, $4 higher than last week's weighted average. April live cattle are down $0.50 at $187.87, June live cattle are down $0.77 at $183.72 and August live cattle are down $0.90 at $182.37.

National Beef Packing Co. did share a statement this morning that processing at the Liberal, Kansas, plant will be delayed until Monday.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.18 ($311.55) and select up $0.99 ($304.72) with a movement of 46 loads (26.35 loads of choice, 3.48 loads of select, 6.76 loads of trim and 9.78 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading lower as traders seem to hold their breath ahead of this afternoon's COF report. Traders won't be able to trade on the report's findings until Monday, but they're cautiously trading today. Gloomy tones continue to be the market's theme technically despite all the fundamental power and support the market possesses. April feeder cattle are down $1.70 at $252.92, May feeder cattle are down $1.42 at $256.65 and August feeders are down $1.02 at $267.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is finally trading higher as the market had endured a mostly pressured market this week. Without steady and consistent consumer demand, traders have been leery trading in the market any higher. Thankfully, midday pork cutout values are higher right now, but the rib continues to be a wild card as it printed $15.93 higher on the morning report. April lean hogs are down $0.47 at $84.42, June lean hogs are up $0.22 at $99.55 and July lean hogs are up $0.10 at $102.

The projected lean hog index March 21 is up $0.05 at $83.59, and the actual index for March 20 is up $0.33 at $83.54. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $0.33 with a weighted average price of $80.52, ranging from $74 to $82 on 1,646 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.48. Pork cutouts total 147.82 loads with 127.36 loads of pork cuts and 20.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.51, $94.59.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Cautious Ahead of Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Front-month live cattle and feeder cattle received a little boost Thursday as cash cattle trade began to surface. Cash trading $2 to $4 higher should see further support in Friday's trading, but that support may be confined to April live cattle as later contracts may remain choppy ahead of the Cattle on Feed report to be released Friday afternoon. The past few reports have seen some surprising numbers in the placement category, but the impact it has had on the market has been short-lived. Nevertheless, traders may remain cautious ahead of the report. The estimates are for on-feed numbers on March 1 at 100.8% of last year with trade estimates ranging from 100.1% - 101.3%. Placements are estimated at 106.3% with a wide range of estimates from 102.7% - 108.8%. Marketed in February is estimated at 103.9% compared to a year ago with a range of 102.5% - 104.7%. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $0.29 and select up $1.02. Weekly export sales were not good at only 11,000 mt and a marketing year low.

Hog futures received some support from weekly export sales of 33,800 mt but that support was not sufficient to keep futures higher. The market correction has taken place over three days. This may run its course supported by some positioning ahead of the weekend. The June contract closed at the lowest level in a month, relieving the overbought status of futures. The packers were not as active in the cash market on Thursday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a decrease of $0.94 with the weighted average declining to $80.30. Cutouts also suffered a little with the price down $0.10. It does not appear that demand has declined very much, but the market seems to be finding a balance between cash and futures. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 90,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher cash cattle again this week should provide overall support to futures. Packers need cattle to satisfy continued strong demand.	1)	If the Cattle on Feed report has a bearish category, further selling may erupt on Monday as traders react to the numbers.
2)	A friendly Cattle on Feed report could support the market and continue the uptrend in prices.	2)	Reduced slaughter numbers and higher boxed beef prices may impact overall demand as higher beef prices reach consumer resistance.
3)	Hog futures have had 3 days of price correction. This should run its course as the market has corrected the overbought technical status.	3)	Pork cutouts continue to have some difficulty finding solid support with prices remaining widely variable.
4)	Overall pork demand remains good. Cash is the highest it has been in a long time and hog slaughter remains strong.	4)	Packers may be finished buying hogs for the week resulting in lower cash again Friday.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade $2 to $4 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

One would have thought the cash cattle market's $2-to-$4-higher trade would send cattle contracts higher, but traders were uncomfortable with doing anything besides trading lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.94 with a weighted average price of $80.30 on 4,053 head. May corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 288.83 points.

Thursday's export report stated that beef net sales of 11,000 metric tons (mt) for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 2% from the previous week and 12% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,300 mt), China (2,100 mt) and Japan (2,000 mt). Pork net sales of 33,800 mt for 2024 were up 36% from the previous week and 10% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (9,200 mt), Canada (8,900 mt) and Japan (5,500 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

When news began to fly early this morning about a packing plant fire at the National Beef plant in Liberal, Kansas, traders and cattlemen quickly remembered the horrifying fire at Holcomb, Kansas, back in 2019 and weren't able to think about anything else throughout the day. The Kansas fire wasn't even close to the same degree as National's fire was only in its reefer unit and production isn't expected to be gravely affected. But even with cash cattle trading $2 to $4 higher and boxed beef prices rounding out the day stronger, traders wouldn't change their focus and led the live cattle contracts lower through Thursday's end.

April live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $188.37, June live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $184.50 and August live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $183.27. So far this week, Southern live cattle have been marked at $188, $2 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle have sold for mostly $302, $4 higher than last week's weighted average. There was one regional packer in Iowa who paid as much as $304 for heifers with a delivery date of April 15.

The month's Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday afternoon -- placements are expected to be higher. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.29 ($313.73) and select up $1.02 ($303.73) with a movement of 118 loads (72.46 loads of choice, 17.09 loads of select, 12.06 loads of trim and 16.35 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have now traded in both regions, it's likely trade remains steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex followed the live cattle market's lead and elected to trade lower throughout the day despite cash cattle trading higher and feeder cattle sales being strong. April feeder cattle closed $0.30 lower at $254.62, May feeders closed $0.72 lower at $258.07 and August feeder cattle closed $0.87 lower at $268.40.

At Winter Livestock Auction, in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week and at its midsession point, there weren't enough steers sold to develop an accurate trend but feeder heifers weighing between 700 and 950 pounds sold $4 to $6 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 96%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/20/2024: up $0.41, $251.82.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex couldn't gain much traction throughout the day as the market closed lower in its nearby contracts. I thought today's export report would help the market, but it seems traders ran out of steam for the market. Given the complex is trading at a high threshold compared to the last six months, they're comfortable for the time being at these prices.

April lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $84.90, June lean hogs closed $1.32 lower at $99.30 and July lean hogs closed $1.42 lower at $101.90. Pork cutouts did close lower, with the cut seeing the most pressure being the rib which fell $7.58. Pork cutouts totaled 196.95 loads with 167.90 loads of pork cuts and 29.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.10, $92.08. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 17,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a week ago. The CME lean hog index March 19: up $0.39, $83.21.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have bought already this week, it's likely they vaguely participate in Friday's cash market.

 

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Southern Cattle Beginning to Trade for $188

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the cash cattle market is beginning to trade, cattle contracts haven't been able to shake their lower trend so far through Thursday's trade. Early sales have been reported in the South at $188, $2 higher than last week's weighted average. May corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 327.49 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,000 metric tons (mt) for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 2% from the previous week and 12% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,300 mt), China (2,100 mt) and Japan (2,000 mt). Pork net sales of 33,800 mt for 2024 were up 36% from the previous week and 10% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (9,200 mt), Canada (8,900 mt) and Japan (5,500 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded across the board this morning as the market initially traded higher but as Thursday's noon hour nears, the market is back to trading lower. April live cattle are down $0.12 at $187.75, June live cattle are down $0.75 at $184.02 and August live cattle are down $0.85 at $182.85.

It's surprising to see the complex trading lower given that some news has finally developed in the cash market. A light trade is currently being reported in the South at $188, $2 higher than last week's weighted average. The North has yet to trade any cattle and feedlots there are likely holding out for even more money. There are some bids in the North at $302, but feedlots haven't let cattle sell yet in that region. There was a fire last night in the reefer unit at National Beef's processing plant in Liberal, Kansas, but it should not affect production.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.04 ($314.48) and select up $1.04 ($303.75) with a movement of 49 loads (24.17 loads of choice, 8.97 loads of select, 4.03 loads of trim and 12.13 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading lower as traders can't seem to shake the weaker tone they possessed earlier in the week. Thankfully, some light cash cattle trade has been reported, which could spark traders' interest this afternoon and help prices rebound slightly.

April feeders are down $0.17 at $254.75, May feeders are down $0.27 at $258.52 and August feeders are down $0.32 at $268.95.

LEAN HOGS:

Even with a moderately supportive export report, the lean hog complex continues to trade lower. Part of traders' apprehension could be that not only are morning pork cutout values lower, but two of the cuts (belly and rib) are down over $9 each. April lean hogs are down $0.57 at $84.72, June lean hogs are down $1.55 at $99.07 and July lean hogs are down $1.75 at $101.55.

The projected lean hog index for March 20 is up $0.33 at $83.54 and the actual index for March 19 is up $0.39 at $83.21. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.12 with a weighted average price of $80.85 on 2,518 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.52. Pork cutouts total 115.09 loads with 98.77 loads of pork cuts and 16.32 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.67, $90.51.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Remain Lackluster

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cash cattle trade was sparse Wednesday and not sufficient to indicate a trend for the week. There is some anticipation for higher cash this week, but it may be difficult for more than steady prices to develop. Boxed beef has been mixed the past two days with choice increasing by $0.22 and select down $0.47 Wednesday. The Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday, which may keep the volatility in cattle futures subdued. The estimates are for on-feed numbers on March 1 at 100.8% of last year with trade estimates ranging from 100.1% to 101.3%. Placements are estimated at 106.3% with a wide range of estimates from 102.7% to 108.8%. Marketed in February is estimated at 103.9% compared to a year ago with a range of 102.5% to 104.7%. Feeder cattle futures have been following live cattle rather than leading, which may be the pattern through the end of the week.

Hog futures continued the retracement with a second day of losses Wednesday. The pressure was not due to lower cash as the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed an increase of $0.46 with the weighted average increasing to $81.24. Slaughter continues to remain strong with the packers needing to be aggressive. Traders seemed focused on the weakness of cutouts, which were down $1.19. Some concern over demand did surface, causing some selling pressure. Futures may now be developing a sideways trading pattern. The weekly export sales report Thursday morning may provide some price direction.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	No matter what the Cattle on Feed report shows, cattle numbers will remain tight this year and a negative reaction to the report may be short-lived.	1)	Cattle futures have been stalling for the past two days as traders look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report. More of the same may be in store for Thursday.
2)	Packers may need more cattle this week and might be more aggressive in their purchases. Feedlots are anticipating that and will hold for higher prices.	2)	If cash cattle trade is steady this week, it will be a disappointment to traders and could trigger more selling pressure.
3)	Hog weights declined last week by 0.5 pounds to an average of 287.1 pounds. Weights are now only 0.3 pounds above a year ago.	3)	Hog futures have been correcting from a technically overbought state. Many times, a correction may last for three days.
4)	Cash hogs continue to improve as the packers have remained aggressive with slaughter higher. They need the hogs to keep demand satisfied.	4)	Hog futures may be establishing a sideways trading range, which will limit further upside price potential for a period. This could trigger some long liquidation.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Continue in Sideways Trend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another boring day for the livestock complex as traders again let contracts drift lower as they patiently waited for fundamental support to develop. Cash cattle interest should improve on Thursday. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.46 with a weighted average price of $81.24 on 3,569 head. May corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is up $8.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 401.37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Without the cash cattle market to add some zest to the live cattle complex, live cattle contracts had little option but to trade lower. Traders are content in their steady/somewhat lower trading range as they wait for the cash cattle market to get underway. It's expected that cattle will trade $1 higher this week as packers need more cattle, but traders aren't willing to bet on that idea until it comes to fruition.

There were a few cattle traded in Kansas, but not enough to say any sort of trend has been established for the week. Asking prices are firm in the South at $188-plus but continue to remain elusive in the North.

April live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $187.80, June live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $184.77 and August live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $183.70. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: Choice up $0.22 ($313.44) and select down $0.47 ($302.71) with a movement of 136 loads (87.94 loads of choice, 25.72 loads of select, 10.21 loads of trim and 11.82 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1 to $2 higher. Packer interest will likely improve by Thursday, and given how confident feedlots are in waiting the week out and believing that packers need more cattle, cattle may indeed trade higher this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex continued in the same pattern it's been trading in lately. Whatever the live cattle contracts do, it's going to do. With the live cattle contracts rounding out the day slightly lower, the feeder cattle market once again looked past the strong sales in the countryside and ended the day slightly. April feeders closed $0.15 lower at $254.92, May feeders closed $0.12 lower at $258.80 and August feeders closed $0.55 lower at $269.27.

At Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded steady while steer and heifer calves sold steady to $5 higher. It was noted in the sale report that six weight steer calves broke $3 last week at the auction and several groups this week sold above $3. Five weight heifers also traded above $3 but the stick-out sale of the day was a group of 702-pound steers that sold for $2.87. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 25%. The CME feeder cattle index March 19: Not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog contracts may have closed lower, but when you take into consideration the combination of a weaker closer in the futures complex and the noticeably lower close in pork cutouts, it was a bit of a gut-wrenching day for hog enthusiasts. April lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $85.30, June lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $100.62 and July lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $103.32.

The market's weakness largely stemmed from the week's weak pork demand. The carcass price was mostly pulled lower from the $7.56 drop in the rib, but the $2.84 drop in the belly, the $1.60 drop in the ham and the $1.28 drop in the butt didn't help matters. Hopefully, tomorrow morning the market will see a better export report than last week and the market will stumble into some support. Pork cutouts totaled 288.56 loads with 250.02 loads of pork cuts and 38.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: Down $1.19, $92.18. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index March 18: Up $0.28, $82.82.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. With pork cutout values drifting lower this week, cash prices could chop steady or begin to trade lower.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Sideways, Steady Tones Keep Complex Trading Weak

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex continues to trade mostly lower as the market is starving for some substantial fundamental support, especially from the cash cattle market. Still, no trade has developed and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday. May corn is down 2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10.49 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With midday boxed beef prices lower and no developments in the cash cattle market, it's no surprise that traders are letting the live cattle contracts drift lower into Wednesday's noon hour. The market has grown comfortable trading in its sideways trading range as the cash cattle market is the driving force of the complex right now. Until something develops in this week's cash market, steady sideways trade should be expected.

April live cattle are down $0.40 at $187.60, June live cattle are down $0.40 at $184.60 and August live cattle are down $0.32 at $183.70. No trade has developed so far today in the cash cattle market as packers need cattle, but with feedlots' eyes on higher prices, packers are waiting the week out and hoping feedlot's eagerness will cease. Asking prices are still not known in the North, but Southern prices are firm at $188-plus. Trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or later.

Boxed beef prices are lower: Choice down $0.28 ($312.94) and select down $1.68 ($301.50) with a movement of 66 loads (36.71 loads of choice, 15.69 loads of select, 5.12 loads of trim and 8.71 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex continues to follow the lead of the live cattle market, trading lower into Wednesday's noon hour. More than anything, the feeder cattle complex is passing time until something develops in the cash cattle market.

If trade is indeed higher this week -- like it's expected to be -- the market could trade slightly higher throughout the futures complex. March feeders are down $0.40 at $250.27, April feeders are down $0.32 at $254.75 and May feeders are down $0.30 at $258.62.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed as the market's nearby contracts continue to trade lower, thanks to the resistance pressure the market can't seem to take out. Meanwhile, the market's deferred contracts continue to trade higher as there's hope that continued export demand will keep prices strong. April lean hogs are down $0.30 at $85.52, June lean hogs are down $0.12 at $101.12 and July lean hogs are up $0.02 at $103.97. The morning's cash hog movement has been moderate so far following Tuesday's large move.

The projected lean hog index for March 19 is up $0.39 at $83.21 and the actual index for March 18 is up $0.28 at $82.82. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.11 with a weighted average price of $80.97, ranging from $75 to $83 on 2,724 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.22. Pork cutouts total 183.25 loads with 163.36 loads of pork cuts and 19.89 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.99, $92.38.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Will Search for Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures chopped around Tuesday with traders lacking strong conviction over price direction for the week. The Cattle on Feed report is on the horizon, which may keep traders unwilling to increase their positions ahead of the report. There is the feeling that cash could be slightly higher this week, but trade may not develop until Friday as it does many times during the week of the report. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $0.11 and select up $0.13. It is unlikely futures will see any significant pressure due to market fundamentals even if the report on Friday is somewhat negative. The tightness of the market continues and may continue for quite some time. Feeder cattle did not decouple from live cattle trading activity with futures developing a sideways trading pattern.

Hog futures were under pressure Tuesday with triple-digit losses through the August contract. The selling seemed to be technical in nature as cash and cutouts were higher for the day. The market has been overbought and traders decided to take some profit off the table despite the market being supported fundamentally. Buyers did step in to buy the break with an impressive bounce back from the lows. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.12 which moved the weighted average to $80.78. Cutouts increased slightly with a gain of $0.21. With the slaughter pace remaining strong, packers should be aggressive Wednesday, paying more to obtain the hogs they need.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The mixed boxed beef prices Tuesday did not indicate a change in consumer demand. Prices should hold and potentially improve.	1)	Packers may hold the line this week due to the Cattle on Feed report and likely not need to be very aggressive with some cattle already purchased ahead.
2)	Live cattle futures are in a slow uptrend and are not technically overbought.	2)	Higher cash cattle are already factored in and steady cash trade this week may put pressure on the market.
3)	Hog futures bounced back from the lows Tuesday as buyers took advantage of the dip to establish long positions.	3)	Traders may be cautious about buying hog futures aggressively today as they may wait to see what cash will do.
4)	The decline of hog futures Tuesday will relieve some of the overbought technical status of the market, putting it in a better position to resume the uptrend.	4)	A further price correction may take place as futures correct from being overbought.