GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was an impressive start to the week as most of the livestock contracts closed higher, and once again boxed beef prices closed higher, too. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday, if not even potentially Friday. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.28 with a weighted average price of $79.66 on 3,425 head. May corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 75.66 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex charged into the new week nd hit the ground running. With boxed beef prices continuing to see support, feedlots are hoping they'll get cash cattle traded higher again this week. The market is eager to take out the highs established in 2023 but hasn't quite been able to do so yet in the cash complex. The cash cattle market won't likely trade until late this week, but feedlots will price cattle higher again this week. April live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $188.57, June live cattle closed $1.80 higher at $185.40 and August live cattle closed $1.72 higher at $184.35. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado.
Monday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.
Last week, northern dressed cattle traded for $294 to $301, but mostly at $298, $4 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded from $181 to mostly $186, which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 82,876 head. Of that, 80% (66,655 head) were committed to the nearby delivery and the remaining 20% (16,221 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.43 ($313.33) and select up $0.65 ($303.05) with a movement of 114 loads (49.92 loads of choice, 18.95 loads of select, 8.62 loads of trim and 36.14 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With consumers feeling spring creeping into the air, beef demand has continued to impress the market and may be strong enough to keep packers engaged in the cash sector despite that meaning that cash prices may trend higher, too.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex closed substantially higher as the market capitalized on support from the live cattle complex. With the live cattle contracts closing higher again this afternoon and cash cattle expected to be priced even higher again this week, it was an easy decision for the feeder cattle market to trade higher while fundamental demand continues to encourage the market to do so.
April feeders closed $2.97 higher at $255.10, May feeders closed $3.12 higher at $259.12 and August feeders closed $2.35 higher at $269.72. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at its midsession point, feeder steers are trading steady to $8 higher while feeder heifers trade anywhere from $4 lower to $5 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index March 15: Up $1.86, $250.86.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed higher in the futures market, but the market's fundamentals weren't overly supportive as cash prices and pork cutout values both closed lower. If the futures complex continues to trend higher, the resistance at $88 will become a hurdle that challenges traders. Unless consumer demand keeps pork cutout values higher throughout the week and Thursday's export report is strong again, I'm not certain the market will be able to take out that long-term resistance.
April lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $86.82, June lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $103.02 and July lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $105.30. Pork cutouts total 256.87 loads with 232.60 loads of pork cuts and 24.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.31, $93.16. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 31,000 head more than a week ago and 26,000 more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index March 14: Up $0.15, $82.34.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork cutout values lower Monday afternoon, I don't expect packers to be overly aggressive in Tuesday's cash market.
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