GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts fought some pressure, but the lean hog complex rallied throughout the day. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, up $1.87 with a weighted average price of $81.17 on 1,965 head. May corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 158.65 points.
Monday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 4% from the previous month and down 13% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 6% from last month and down 12% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 1% from the previous month and down 12% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 2% from last month but still down 10% from last year.
LIVE CATTLE:
It was a mundane day for the live cattle complex as the market never found the momentum it desired throughout the day's trade. April live cattle closed $1.30 lower at $186.20, June live cattle closed $1.30 lower at $181.60 and August live cattle closed $1.52 lower at $179.97. The market is at a holing point as traders are aware that with packers able to buy some cattle with time last week all while processing speeds are running at a reduced pace, that packers have positioned themselves to have more supplies readily available. The question is, do they possess enough cattle this week to keep cash cattle prices from trading higher? Time will tell, but trade won't likely develop until sometime after Wednesday. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.
Last week Northern dressed cattle averaged $302, which is $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and surpasses the previous high made June 9, 2023, at $299.51 in Nebraska and $298.65 in Iowa. And Southern live cattle also saw tremendous support as prices averaged $188, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average which had just set a record high for the Southern Plains as Texas averaged $187.96 and Kansas averaged $185.79. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 98,759 head. Of that 70% (69,000 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 30% (29,759 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.17 ($310.89) and select up $0.49 ($301.96) with a movement of 108 loads (58.37 loads of choice, 17.48 loads of select, 5.71 loads of trim and 26.26 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's likely that the cash cattle market's best situation this upcoming week is steady trade. Packers were able to buy a considerable volume last week in the cash market (the largest weekly volume since October 2023).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex was never able to gain a strong footing in Monday's market – which was partly expected given that Friday's COF report was heavy for the market to absorb and given that the live cattle complex closed lower. To the market's advantage, however, is that the snowstorm that passed through the Northern Plains this past weekend hit a lot of summer cow-calf ground which should help with moisture conditions. If the cash cattle market trades steady this upcoming week, the feeder cattle complex could be hard pressured for the technical support it longs for. April feeders closed $1.05 lower at $250.45, May feeders closed $1.15 lower at $252.62 and August feeders closed $2.37 lower at $262.17. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading steady to $7.00 lower and feeder heifers were trading $6.00 lower to $7.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 47%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/22/2024: up $0.05, $83.59.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex powered through Monday's trade with all the market's contracts being able to round out the day higher. It helped matters that both the cash market and pork cutout values closed higher -- which traders need to consistently see if they're going to take on the market's resistance. Thursday will be a big-hitting day for the complex with both export data and a Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report released. April lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $85.15, June lean hogs closed $1.97 higher at $101.67 and July lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $103.92. Pork cutouts totaled 274.88 loads with 240.20 loads of pork cuts and 34.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.36, $95.74. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/21/2024: up $0.32, $251.70.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values higher, packers could be more aggressive in Tuesday's cash market.
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