Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - USDA's Testing of Ground Beef for Avian Influenza Panicked the Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

USDA's announcement that their now testing ground beef for traces of avian influenza did not sit well with the cattle complex and ultimately led traders to dump both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts lower by Tuesday's end. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.40 with a weighted average price of $92.03 on 6,186 head. July corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 570.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As a precautionary measure, the USDA is now in the beginning stages of testing ground beef for the H5N1 virus -- which is what panicked the cattle complex and sent both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets tumbling lower throughout Tuesday's trade. Although the USDA has publicly stated that they believe the meat supply is safe, the announcement still rattled traders and consequently led to the market's sharply lower close. Chris Clayton, DTN's Ag Policy Editor wrote on the matter which can be accessed here:

June live cattle closed $2.17 lower at $174.97, August live cattle closed $2.57 lower at $173.10 and October live cattle closed $2.72 lower at $177.05. There were a few cattle traded in the North as today's sharply lower pressured some feedlots into marketing their cattle early, but all in all the cash cattle market still hasn't seen any substantial trade develop and won't likely until after Wednesday sometime. Asking prices are noted in the South at $186 but have yet to be established in the North. Lousy boxed beef interest continues to be problematic for the market especially given that right now has historically been the market's prime time in selling beef ahead of early summer cookouts. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.16 ($294.37) and select down $0.26 ($289.95) with a movement of 110 loads (69.13 loads of choice, 21.71 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 19.01 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given the sharp selloff in today's futures complex, packers will likely be able to get cattle bought for cheaper money this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The bird flu once again dominated the cattle complex and was the Achilles heel of the market's demise through Tuesday's trade. May feeder cattle closed $3.45 lower at $244.57, August feeders closed $4.12 lower at $255.50 and September feeders closed $4.25 lower at $256.47. Demand was still strong and stable in the countryside, but from a technical standpoint, the complex stood little chance of closing higher as fear again consumed traders' minds. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers sold $2.00 to $5.00 higher with five weight steers selling for as much as $13.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold from $2.00 lower to $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/29/2024: down $0.18, $247.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex didn't close as bleakly as the cattle contracts did, but its support wasn't all that great either as the market's nearby contracts continue to struggle as summertime demand remains in question. However, the market's deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher. Even though the summer 2024 contracts have been under pressure as of late, it is still encouraging to see that the June 2024 through August 2024 contracts are all still trading above $100.00. Today's pork cutout values closed mixed with the biggest gains being seen in the rib (up $3.81) but the $1.26 loss in the belly and $1.08 loss in the ham sucked the overall carcass price into closing lower. June lean hogs closed steady at $102.47, July lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $105.42 and August lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $103.40. Pork cutouts totaled 248.12 loads with 228.32 loads of pork cuts and 19.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.24, $98.76. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago but 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/26/2024: down $0.52, $90.36.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Packers bought over 6,000 head in today's cash market which could mean that the bulk of their weekly buying is done.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Send the Complex Retreating

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex has been under pressure since Tuesday's start and as the market nears Tuesday's noon hour -- the intensity of the market's technical pressure has only grown stronger. No asking prices are noted yet in the cash cattle market, but trade will likely be delayed until the second half of the week. July corn is down 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 305.32 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's been a tough go thus far throughout Tuesday's trade for the live cattle complex as the contracts are trading fully lower and traders don't seem interested in focusing on anything but the market's pressure. Whether the downturn is stemming from the announcement that HPAI has been detected in some dairy cattle in Colorado, or from lousy boxed beef movement -- the day's pressure is being severely felt throughout the cattle complex. June live cattle are down $2.27 at $174.87, August live cattle are down $2.47 at $173.20 and October live cattle are down $2.65 at $177.12. No bids or asking prices have surfaced yet this week and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Midday boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.49 ($296.04) and select up $0.70 ($290.91) with a movement of 56 loads (28.90 loads of choice, 10.66 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 16.19 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle market trading mostly $2.00 lower into Tuesday afternoon -- the feeder cattle market waived its white flag early on and is trading mostly $3.00 lower into the noon hour. May feeders are down $3.05 at $244.97, August feeders are down $3.60 at $256.02 and September feeders are down $3.57 at $257.15. Today's descent could be stemming from the announcement that HPAI has been detected in some dairy cows in Colorado.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex attempted to trade higher, but the market quickly sank back lower and is entering Tuesday's noon hour lower in the nearby contracts, but slightly higher in the market's furthest deferred months. June lean hogs are down $0.35 at $102.12, July lean hogs are down $0.47 at $104.97 and August lean hogs are down $0.20 at $103.47. Cash interest was stronger this morning as over 2,000 head have already traded. If cash support and pork cutout values can round out the day higher then Wednesday's market may stand a better chance at trading higher.

The projected lean hog index for 4/29/2024 is down $0.10 at $90.26 and the actual index for 4/26/2024 is down $0.52 at $90.36. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $90.72, ranging from $82.00 to $92.00 on 2,906 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.49. Pork cutouts total 148.22 loads with 135.48 loads of pork cuts and 12.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.28, $98.72.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Expected to be Choppy

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Today is the last day to trade the April live cattle contract. June will take over, posting an $8.00 lower price as traders anticipate cash weakness over the next two months. There has been greater concern developing over demand through the summer months but that remains to be seen. Even though cattle numbers may be tight and heifer retention has not been taking place to any great extent, lower demand will impact prices. Packers will hold the line on chain speed to improve margins and keep supply in line with demand. Feedlots may have difficulty getting more money out of packers this week. Boxed beef prices were higher on Monday with choice up $0.39 and select up $1.49.

Hogs moved to new lows for the move but as the liquidation pressure subsided, buying interest surfaced. Futures bounced off support, which could follow through Tuesday. The packers were not aggressive Monday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing cash down $0.75 with the weighted average at $89.63. This was offset by cutouts gaining $1.37. There is some concern over ongoing demand, but traders anticipate higher prices through the summer. The slaughter pace remains strong, which should keep packers purchasing hogs aggressively.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher boxed beef prices indicate demand is holding and should keep packers interested in paying at now less-than-steady money.	1)	The packers purchased a fair amount of cattle last week for deferred delivery, which may leave them less aggressive this week.
2)	The large discount of $8.00 in the June contract may be too much and will move closer to the April price as it takes over as the front month.	2)	Traders anticipate further price weakness through the summer as cattle futures prices indicate.
3)	Hog futures bounced off support Monday, which could increase the buying interest of technical traders and push futures higher.	3)	Hog futures already have a premium in the summer contract months, possibly leaving little upside price potential for contracts.
4)	Packers are expected to be more aggressive Tuesday as they look to procure the hogs they need for the week and maintain the strong slaughter pace.	4)	Hog futures may establish a sideways trading range with price fluctuations confined to the range in the near term.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cautious Tones Dominate Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a quiet day throughout the livestock complex as not much developed from either a technical or fundamental stance. Traders could be slightly more aggressive in the contracts on Tuesday as both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices closed higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.75 with a weighted average price of $89.63 on 1,095 head. July corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $9.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 146.43 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With little action developing in Monday's market, it doesn't come as much of a surprise to see that the live cattle complex closed slightly lower. June live cattle closed $1.42 lower at $177.15, August live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $175.67 and October live cattle closed $0.82 lower at $179.77. What continues to be a worth-nothing threshold for the spot June live cattle contract is the market's 100-day moving average. Traders have struggled to consistently trade above that price point for the last week. But if fundamental support develops, potentially in the form of stronger boxed beef sales, traders could break above that resistance threshold and trade steadily higher if demand surfaces. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head -- steady with a week ago but 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $182 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $294 which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,548 head. Of that 74% (68,496 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 26% (24,052 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.39 ($297.53) and select up $1.49 ($290.21) with a movement of 104 loads (63.96 loads of choice, 15.77 loads of select, 9.71 loads of trim and 14.25 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Feedlots are likely encouraged by last week's cash cattle trade, but with packers buying just shy of 100,000 head last week, they may not have to support this week's cash sector as aggressively.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex saw plenty of support throughout the countryside as sale barn sales performed well -- but from a technical standpoint the market lacked the gusto it needed to drive the contracts higher. May feeders closed $0.67 lower at $248.02, August feeders closed $0.92 lower at $259.62 and September feeders closed $0.85 lower at $260.72. The spot August contract was able to remain above the market's 40-day moving average, but will need better interest come Tuesday if the complex is to keep above that price point. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers over 800 pounds were selling steady to $2.00 higher while steers under 800 pounds were trading $3.00 to $6.00 higher. Heifers over 800 pounds were selling $3.00 to $6.00 higher and heifers under 800 pounds were selling $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 84%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/26/2024: up $1.65, $247.18.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed in a mixed manner as the market's deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher, but the nearby contracts struggled all the way through the day's close. One of the biggest concerns right now in the hog complex is the question of whether or not summertime demand is going to flourish. Thankfully on Monday afternoon pork cutout values were well supported, but the belly remains a cut that could be volatile and consequently affect the carcass price. June lean hogs closed steady at $102.47, July lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $105.45 and August lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $103.67. Pork cutouts totaled 332.70 loads with 299.10 loads of pork cuts and 33.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.37, $99.00. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 32,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/25/2024: down $0.55, $90.88.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. It's likely that Tuesday's market will see slightly better interest than what Monday's complex received.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Vaguely Support the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders are taking a careful approach to Monday's market as all three of the livestock markets are trading mixed into the noon hour. The biggest thing that traders seemed concerned about for the time being is demand -- what will beef and pork demand be over the summer? July corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $8.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 105.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading gingerly into the day's noon hour as traders would like to see followed through fundamental support following last week's late-week technical advancement. Feedlots could be hard-pressed to get cattle traded for more money this week as last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,548 head -- the second biggest volume sold thus far in 2024. June live cattle are down $1.10 at $177.47, August live cattle are down $0.80 at $175.97 and October live cattle are down $0.72 at $179.85. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $182 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $294 which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 92,548 head. Of that 74% (68,496 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 26% (24,052 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.40 ($297.54) and select up $2.27 ($290.99) with a movement of 51 loads (30.88 loads of choice, 7.70 loads of select, 7.88 loads of trim and 5.01 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading with a lower tone as the market would like to see the live cattle complex better supported before it advances. May feeders are down $0.97 at $247,82, August feeders are down $0.80 at $259.75 and September feeders are down $0.67 at $260.90. Feeder cattle interest throughout the countryside has been exceptional and with green grass and turnout season quickly approaching, demand should remain strong as there simply aren't as many feeders to sort through this year.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour with only some of the nearby contracts struggling to trade higher. With there still being concern over what summertime demand will amount to in the pork sector, traders are cautiously trading the late summer early fall 2024 contracts. The big uptick in today's midday carcass price comes from a $31.99 jump in the belly which will likely continue to be a volatile cut moving forward. June lean hogs are up $0.17 at $102.65, July lean hogs are down $0.65 at $105.30 and August lean hogs are down $0.55 at $103.40.

The projected lean hog index for 4/26/2024 is down $0.52 at $90.36, and the actual index for 4/25/2024 is down $0.55 at $90.88. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 170 head have traded and that Pork cutouts total 221.74 loads with 195.93 loads of pork cuts and 25.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.09, $104.72.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Likely to Rebound

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle maintained steady to higher cash prices that began to surface as the week progressed. This will give feedlots more confidence to hold for nothing less than steady prices this week. The packers may not cut back much further than they have and will need to maintain the current slaughter pace. Southern cattle traded at steady cash compared to the previous week with Northern cattle trading $2 higher. Boxed beef was mixed on Friday with choice up $0.22 and select down $0.94. Feeder cattle led the charge on Friday posting triple-digit gains with May through October contracts gaining over $2.00. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders adding 3,081 contracts to bring their live cattle net long futures positions to 40,113 contacts. There were 620 feeder cattle contracts added bringing the net long futures positions to 4,801.

It was a surprise hog futures were under significant pressure on Friday even though both cash and cutouts were higher. The packers needed to finish out purchases for the week stepping up and paying $1.67 higher with a weighted average of $90.38 according to the National Dairy Direct Afternoon Hog report. Cutouts gained $0.14 indicating continued supportive demand. However, trader psychology triggered the liquidation as some concern developed over the level of demand that will be seen due to the current higher prices. The packers will likely offer less cash today as they assess weekend demand. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding 3,994 long contacts bringing their net long positions to 92,002 futures contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Steady to higher cash cattle last week will keep feedlots confident packers will pay at least steady money this week.	1)	The differed live cattle and feeder cattle contracts still retain chart gaps below the market that may be filled at some point.
2)	Live cattle closed the week at the highest level in a month. The packers may not cut the slaughter pace any further and may pay at least steady money to obtain the cattle they need.	2)	Boxed beef continues to struggle with mixed prices on nearly a daily basis. Demand might have reached a plateau.
3)	Higher cash hogs on Friday are not common but indicated packers needed more hogs to maintain slaughter.	3)	The reduced export sales of pork may indicate that international demand is being affected by the higher pork prices.
4)	Liquidation generally runs its course after three days with hog futures falling back to support and the range they traded in two weeks ago.	4)	Hog futures fell back to the sideways trading range they had been in two weeks ago. Futures may trade in this range as traders assess upcoming summer demand.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Sales Keep Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the lean hog complex closed lower as concerns about summer demand pressured its market, the cattle complex rallied through the day without a hitch. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.67 with a weighted average price of $90.38 on 1,799 head. July corn is down 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 153.86 points.

Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $3.20, June live cattle up $2.90; May feeder cattle up $6.70, August feeder cattle up $7.05; June lean hogs down $2.35, July lean hogs down $0.52; May corn up $0.07, July corn up $0.07.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the week's trade modestly higher as traders found support in the market's cash cattle trade. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $182, mostly steady with the previous week's weighted average, but Northern dressed cattle traded at $294, $2 higher than last week's weighted average. The spot June contract closed above its 100-day moving average, which continues to be a price point that the market dances around, but if traders could find enough immediate fundamental support in the market, they'd likely confidently trade above that price point.

June live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $187.57, August live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $176.77 and October live cattle closed $0.90 higher at $180.60. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head -- steady from a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 12,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 613,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.22 ($297.14) and select down $0.94 ($288.72) with a movement of 125 loads (87.99 loads of choice, 24.57 loads of select, 3.43 loads of trim and 9.24 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It will be interesting to see exactly how many cattle were sold this week and how they were committed to delivery. Packers are fighting to keep their margins profitable right now, so they won't easily give the cash cattle market any more money than what's demanded.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market jumped into action for Friday's trade as the complex not only closed above its 100-day moving average, but the spot August contract closed above its 40-day moving average as well. Feeders were well supported throughout the day as traders took note of the cash cattle market's steady to $2 higher trade, and the market continues to be well supported by strong feeder cattle sales in the countryside.

I think it's also worth noting that the May and August feeder cattle contracts gained between $6.70 and $7.05 throughout the week -- that's a significant position!

May feeders closed $2.45 higher at $248.70, August feeders closed $2.25 higher at $260.55 and September feeders closed $2.15 higher at $261.57. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the year, steers and heifers traded $4 to $9 higher, but the biggest weekly advancement was seen on seven-weight steers which traded $12 to $14 higher. Slaughter cows sold $3 to $8 lower and slaughter bulls sold $9 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 78%. The CME feeder cattle index April 25: up $0.38, $245.53.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed lower as traders grew concerned about the market's demand outlook through the summer. Pork cutout values rounded out higher the day, but there's been some recent volatility in the belly which has caused the carcass price to fluctuate. The market has also seen some technical pressure as traders, ahead of the market's recent downturn, were close to pressuring the market's long-term resistant threshold, which is a stiff barrier given its new contract high in the spot June contract and the highest price point the market has traded in over a year.

June lean hogs closed $2.52 lower at $102.47, July lean hogs closed $1.85 lower at $105.95 and August lean hogs closed $1.45 lower at $103.95. Pork cutouts totaled 257.21 loads with 240.27 loads of pork cuts and 16.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.14, $97.63. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 439,000 head -- 41,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 4,000 head. The CME lean hog index April 24: down $0.21, $91.43.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given there's some question regarding summer demand, packers won't likely to support Monday's cash hog market much.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Trade Higher, Thanks to Late-Week Support in Cash Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as cattle contracts trade modestly higher fueled by stronger cash cattle trade. The lean hog complex is trading lower as traders worry about summertime demand. July corn is up 1 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 167.18 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading modestly higher as traders are thankful for late-week-added support from cash cattle sales. Bids have been renewed in Nebraska at $185 to $186 live, $294 dressed, and in Kansas at $184 live, but no new sales have been reported. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $182, steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle at $294 to $295, $2 to $3 higher than last week's weighted average. A few more sales could develop throughout the day, but the week's weighted average is likely set. June live cattle are up $0.65 at $178.47, August live cattle are up $0.82 at $176.87 and October live cattle are up $0.95 at $180.65.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.50 ($298.42) and select down $1.19 ($288.47) with a movement of 92 loads (63.41 loads of choice, 19.04 loads of select, 3.04 loads of trim and 6.32 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is currently the leader of the cattle complex's higher move as all the contracts are trading anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 higher. The strong fundamental showing developed late this week in the marketplace encourages the market. Between Northern dressed cattle trading $2 to $3 higher and continued support for feeder cattle in sale barn sales, traders have seen more than enough support to justify trading the feeder cattle contracts higher through Friday's end. August feeders are up $1.70 at $260.02, September feeders are up $1.52 at $260.95 and October feeders are up $1.40 at $261.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continues to trade lower as the market worries about consumer support this summer. Thursday's lukewarm export report is also slightly affecting traders as they were hoping to see strong sales which would have boosted the market's morale. Yes, midday pork cutout values are higher, but traders are looking at the market through a broader, long-term perspective. June lean hogs are down $2.35 at $102.65, July lean hogs are down $1.87 at $105.92 and August lean hogs are down $1.50 at $103.90.

The projected lean hog index for April 25 is down $0.55 at $90.88, and the actual index for 4/24/2024 is down $0.22 at $91.43. Hog prices are unavailable in the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 1,144 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $90.45. Pork cutouts total 189.07 loads with 179.42 loads of pork cuts and 9.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.71, $100.20.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Steady to Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a negative beginning for cattle but as further cash trading developed, cattle futures turned higher. Northern dressed cattle traded $1 to $2 higher generating interest in purchasing futures. The stage is likely set for cash activity today with Southern cattle likely to trade steady and Northern cattle higher. This was not expected earlier this week and the result of feedlots holding out due to tight supplies. More live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed their chart gaps before futures turned higher, but later contracts still show gaps from a week ago. Weekly export sales were lower than the previous week and may have limited some possible gains. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.18 and select down $0.76.

Hog futures were unable to find support as packers were not aggressive in the cash market. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.78 as most of the hogs needed this week had been purchased. Weekly export sales were better than the previous week 28,800 mt, but that failed to provide support to futures. Pork cutouts were up $0.22 showing at least steady retail demand. The selling pressure on Thursday took away most of the gains this week with contracts unable to retest the contract highs. Futures may trade mixed ahead of the weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	More cattle contracts were able to close the chart gaps that had been below the market giving technical traders confidence in buying futures.	1)	The differed contracts in live cattle and feeder cattle futures hold chart gaps below the market that may be filled.
2)	Higher cash cattle trade should improve the price outlook as it indicates demand remains strong and supplies remain tight.	2)	The news of the potentially more widespread impact of the bird flu virus in dairy cattle than what has been reported may keep traders cautious and upside potential limited.
3)	Packers may be generally done buying for the week but pork demand remains strong and slaughter continues to run higher than a year ago. Hog weights declined by one pound from the previous week's average of 287 pounds.	3)	The failure of hog futures to retest the contract highs may keep futures in a wide sideways trading pattern.
4)	A drop in hog futures may be viewed as a buying opportunity by traders as funds seem willing to buy the break due to positive fundamentals.	4)	Lower export sales in the past two weeks may indicate international interest has declined due to higher pork prices. This may be a limited factor of price potential.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Northern Dressed Cattle Trade $2.00 to $3.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an excellent day for the cattle complex as cash cattle sales were higher in the North, but the hog complex did struggle throughout the day as traders weren't disappointed early on from the morning's export report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.78 with a weighted average price of $88.71 on 1,695 head. July corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 375.12 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,200 mt for 2024 were down 14% from the previous week and 3% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (4,600 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and Canada (2,000 mt). Pork net sales of 28,800 mt for 2024 were up 32% from the previous week, but down 25% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (11,300 mt), Japan (4,200 mt) and South Korea (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

On Wednesday, the cattle complex may have closed lower amid more news spreading about the HPAI virus, but traders quickly shook that news behind them and advanced the market notably through Thursday's trade as strong fundamental support surfaced from better cash cattle sales. Some light trade was noted in the North at $294 to $295 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle continued to trade at $182 which is steady with last week's weighted average. But more than anything, it's extremely positive to see feedlots capitalizing on an opportunity to trade cattle higher and not letting technical or emotional trading disruptions alter their course. June live cattle closed $2.55 higher at $177.80, August live cattle closed $2.67 higher at $176.05 and October live cattle closed $2.05 higher at $179.70. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.18 ($296.92) and select down $0.76 ($289.66) with a movement of 120 loads (83.56 loads of choice, 14.38 loads of select, 4.19 loads of trim and 18.06 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that sales have now been reported in both regions, prices will likely remain steady where they are.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With Northern cash cattle trade scoring sales $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average, the feeder cattle complex was elated to trade higher upon such supportive fundamental news. May feeders closed $2.15 higher at $246.25, August feeders closed $2.00 higher at $258.30 and September feeders closed $1.92 higher at $259.42. The spot May contract was again able to close above the market's 100-day moving average, after falling below that threshold Wednesday afternoon. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota compared to last week feeder steers weighing 650 to 749 pounds sold $8.00 to $12.00 higher, steers weighing 750 to 999 pounds sold $2.00 to $6.00 higher. Heifers were lightly tested but those weighing 600 to 649 pounds sold $10.00 to $14.00 higher. Cattle suitable for grass continue to see excellent demand as the opportunity to get these types of cattle bought to fill pastures dwindles each week. The CME feeder cattle index 4/24/2024: up $2.51, $245.15.

LEAN HOGS:

More than anything the lean hog complex seemed let down from Thursday's export report as traders have become accustomed to seeing large sales made given the excellent demand seen in the first quarter of the year. Pork cutout values closed slightly higher, but not even steady, stable support from domestic customers was enough to encourage traders through the day's trade. June lean hogs closed $2.45 lower at $105.00, July lean hogs closed $2.05 lower at $107.80 and August lean hogs closed $1.75 lower at $105.40. Pork cutouts totaled 221.79 loads with 190.12 loads of pork cuts and 31.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.22, $97.49. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago but 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 4/23/2024: up $0.19, $91.64.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers didn't show much support to Thursday's cash market likely means that they're all but done buying for the week and so consequently Friday's prices will likely be lower and on a thin volume traded.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Shake PAI News, Trade Higher Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Following Wednesday's descent, the live cattle complex is back to trading higher as traders are encouraged by the Southern Plain's steady cash cattle trade. With more HPAI news surfacing and the futures market electing to react negatively to the virus, cattlemen are more focused on the market's fundamentals given that the virus isn't posing significant illness to infected cattle and the CDC continues to say there is little risk to humans.

Traders are mildly supporting the contracts again this morning even though the market is back to trading below its 100-day moving average. June live cattle are up $0.65 at $175.90, August live cattle are up $0.87 at $174.25 and October live cattle are up $0.47 at $178.12. There were a few cattle that traded Wednesday afternoon in the South at $182 which is fully steady with the previous week's trade. Currently, bids of $182 to $183 live and $290 dressed are being offered in Nebraska, but no cattle have sold in that region yet. For the cattle left on showlists, asking prices in the South are firm at $184-plus and Northern feedlots are asking $295. Packer interest is expected to improve throughout the day.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.68 ($297.42) and select down $0.42 ($290.00) with a movement of 57 loads (35.93 loads of choice, 8.94 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 12 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is back to trading higher as traders shake the news regarding the HPAI virus that was spread again on Wednesday and opt to refocus on the support that feeder cattle sales have been seeing in the countryside.

May feeders are up $0.50 at $244.60, August feeders are up $0.02 at $256.32 and September feeders are up $0.17 at $257.67. With turn-out season quickly approaching, continuing to watch these feeder cattle sales in the countryside will be insightful as everyone is curious about what the big summertime video sales are going to accomplish.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading notably lower into Thursday's noon hour as traders seemed discouraged by the day's export report even though 28,800 metric tons were sold. Early this year export sales were at times twice that much, which is partly why traders have grown accustomed to seeing bigger sales. On the bright side, at least midday pork cutout values are higher.

June lean hogs are down $2.70 at $104.75, July lean hogs are down $2.30 at $107.55 and August lean hogs are down $1.67 at $105.47.

The projected lean hog index for April 24 is down $0.22 at $91.43 and the actual index for April 23 is up $0.19 at $91.64. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.45 with a weighted average price of $88.85, ranging from $84.45 to $93 with a movement of 1,180 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.16. Pork cutouts total 144.40 loads with 120.13 loads of pork cuts and 24.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.35, $97.62.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Pressure Possible in Reaction to HPAI News

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The news of the discovery of the HPAI virus in milk sent some traders running or the door looking to liquidate their long positions. Even though the consumption of pasteurized milk is safe and the consumption of meat is safe, consumers may react negatively. This may be the overriding influence on the market in the near term. The virus has not been found in beef cattle at this point but dairy cattle are slaughtered for beef as well. Some very light cattle trade developed in the South at steady money with last week which should be positive for the market. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.66 and select down $2.34.

Hog futures struggled and tried to close higher with only the August contract posting a minor gain of $0.05. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $0.36 with a weighted average of $91.49. This was offset somewhat by pork cutouts increasing by $0.38. It is anticipated that the packers will need to remain aggressive to purchase the required hogs they need for the week which could support cash today. There may also be a positive reaction to the news of HPAI possibly being more widespread in dairy cattle than reported with some detected in milk. This may improve pork consumption if consumers shy away from beef. Hopefully, weekly export sales will provide added support to the market.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Some light cash cattle trade took place in the South at steady money with last week. This should be supportive of the market.	1)	The HPAI virus found in milk and possibly being more widespread in dairy cattle than reported may hurt the cattle market if consumers reduce beef consumption.
2)	The negative reaction to the HPAI virus being found in milk and possibly more widespread in dairy cattle than reported may be short-lived as it should not impact the safety of beef.	2)	October and later live cattle futures and August and later feeder cattle futures have chart gaps below the market that may be filled at some point.
3)	Pork may benefit from the HPAI virus dominating the livestock news again on Wednesday. Consumers could turn more to pork consumption.	3)	Hog futures may have reached price resistance with traders cautious over becoming too aggressive at the higher prices.
4)	Hog futures opened lower on Wednesday, but rejected the lows and minimized the losses. This could increase buying interest today.	4)	If weekly export sales do not show an increase over last week, pressure could remain on the market.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - HPAI News Scares the Cattle Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex fell victim to yet another day of lower closes thanks to more developments seen in the HPAI virus story. A little cash cattle trade was reported in the South at $182, which is steady with last week's weighted average. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.36 with a weighted average of $91.49 on 4,288 hogs. May corn closed down 5 1/4 at $4.378 and July soybean meal closed up $3.10 at $349.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 42.77 at 38,460.92.

Wednesday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 1% from the previous month and down 12% from a year ago. Total pounds of beef in freezers was down 3% from the previous month and down 10% from a year ago. Frozen pork supplies were up 1% from the previous month but down 13% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 18% from last month but down 2% from a year ago.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex fell short of its desire to close higher as the market was once again consumed by news pertaining to the HPAI virus. Midmorning news was shared that traces of the HPAI virus had been found in milk, but the CDC still believes that the virus's risk to humans remains low. Regardless, the USDA announced that it would begin requiring mandatory testing for the interstate movement of dairy cattle, effective beginning April 29th. Chris Clayton, DTN's Senior Policy Editor covered the story in full, and it can be accessed here:

The cattle complex's weaker close was largely due to the fact that specs reacted emotionally to the news and decided to more or less, dump and run from the cattle market. June live cattle closed $1.90 lower at $175.25, August live cattle closed $2.13 lower at $173.37 and October live cattle closed $1.72 lower at $177.65. It was encouraging however to see that some light cash cattle trade was reported in the South at $182 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. Given the reactionary behavior seen in the futures complex, I was worried that the cash cattle market would see the same type of pressure, but feedlot managers kept their wits about them and were able to hold prices steady -- an accomplishment in today's frazzled marketplace. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists remain firm at $185 to $186 and are still not established in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.66 ($295.74) and select down $2.34 ($290.42) with a movement of 148.06 loads (92.41 loads of choice, 30.42 loads of select, 7.88 loads of trim and 17.35 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that prices are trending steady early in the week in the South, it's likely that Northern feedlots aim to accomplish the same success.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed lower as external pressures were simply too much for the market to bear through the day's end. May feeders closed $1.95 lower at $244.15, August feeders closed $3.10 lower at $256.30 and September feeders closed $2.97 lower at $257.50. Today's downward ascend was driven by more news surrounding the HPAI virus which continues to be a thorn in the cattle complex's side. At Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week feeder steers sold mostly $5.00 to $15.00 higher across all weight groups. Feeder heifers traded unevenly steady. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 to $2.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $4.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 23: down $0.58, $242.64.

LEAN HOGS:

Even the energy was sucked out of the lean hog complex through Wednesday's trade as its market closed lower alongside the cattle contracts. June lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $107.45, July lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $109.85 and August lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $107.15. Heading into Thursday's trade the market is desperately hoping to see a fruitful export report, which will undoubtedly affect which way the market trades on Thursday. Thankfully pork cutout values did close slightly higher Thursday afternoon as the wild price swings in the belly seemed to subside. Pork Cutouts totaled 233.33 loads with 212.57 loads of pork cuts and 20.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.38 at $97.27. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 22: up $0.14, $91.45.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. It's likely that cash hog prices will be higher on Thursday as packers haven't participated much in this week's cash sector and will need to do so ahead of the week's end.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Markets Retreat Upon More HPAI News

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are again trading lower as traders have noted the announcement that the HPAI virus has been found in some milk samples. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and the week's trade is likely delayed until Thursday or Friday. May corn is down 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 127.45 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Unfortunately, upon the news of finding fragments of HPAI in pasteurized milk samples, the cattle complex is again trading lower. Chris Clayton, DTN's Ag Policy Editor wrote thoroughly on the matter which you can read here:

June live cattle are down $1.62 at $175.45, August live cattle are down $1.82 at $173.72 and October live cattle are down $1.37 at $178.00. No cash cattle trade has developed and it's mostly likely that trade is delayed until Thursday or Friday. Asking prices in the South are noted at $186 plus but remain unestablished in the North. With boxed beef prices struggling and given the market's recent lower ascend, it's likely that cash cattle prices trade steady at best.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.62 ($295.78) and select down $1.99 ($290.77) with a movement of 107 loads (69.66 loads of choice, 21.71 loads of select, 2.73 loads of trim and 13.07 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the added market pressure of the evolving HPAI story, the feeder cattle contracts are too trading lower. May feeders are down $2.92 at $243.12, August feeders are down $2.97 at $256.35 and September feeders are down $2.75 at $257.72. Even though the futures complex is trading lower, feeder cattle sales in the countryside will still likely see strong interest and trade steady with the week's higher tone.

LEAN HOGS:

Hog prices are mixed heading into Wednesday's afternoon as the market has noted the uptick in morning pork cutout values but wants to see how the afternoon's carcass price fairs before rallying the complex, and more than anything traders are hoping that Thursday's export report is fruitful. June lean hogs are down $0.07 at $107.87, July lean hogs are up $0.05 at $110.00 and August lean hogs are up $0.27 at $107.40.

The projected lean hog index for 4/23/2024 is up $0.19 at $91.64, and the actual index for 4/22/2024 is up $0.14 at $91.45. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.29 with a weighted average price of $91.30, ranging from $85.00 to $94.50 on 1,547 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.57. Pork cutouts total 130.32 loads with 118.50 loads of pork cuts and 11.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.41, $98.30.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May Hit Price Resistance

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The June and August live cattle contracts closed the chart gaps that were left after the opening on Monday while later contracts retain those chart gaps. Both live cattle and feeder cattle futures rebounded substantially from their lows during Tuesday, which is a testimony of the resiliency of the market due to overall tight supplies. The anticipation of the trade is for cash to be steady this week, which will provide some confidence to traders to buy into the market. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.47 and select up $0.89. Thursday is the final day to trade April feeder cattle.

Hog futures opened about steady Tuesday and then never looked back with futures showing substantial gains. Contracts are likely to challenge the contract highs of April 10, which could uncover some sell orders as it would be strong technical resistance. Cash was higher on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report with a gain of $1.54 and a weighted average price of $91.85. Packers may be aggressive Wednesday as they want to finish up buying for the week. However, cutouts took a hit with a decline of $4.81 dragged down by bellies falling $23.70. This may have an impact on trading activity Wednesday as a delayed reaction to the cutout weakness on Tuesday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	June and August live cattle futures closed their chart gaps, which may provide technical support to the market.	1)	Packers may reduce cattle slaughter rather than pay higher cash this week.
2)	The recent Cattle on Feed report should provide long-term support to the market as placements remain low.	2)	The October and later live cattle contracts and all of the feeder cattle contracts have chart gaps remaining below the market that need to be filled.
3)	Hog futures may reach back to the contract highs. Strong pork demand could push futures above those highs, triggering more aggressive buying.	3)	The large decline in pork cutouts Tuesday may hurt the market Wednesday as traders usually react to cutouts the following day.
4)	Packers remain aggressive as they need hogs to fill the increased slaughter pace.	4)	There are likely heavy sell orders at the contract highs in hog futures that could force the market lower as liquidation is triggered.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs and Feeder Cattle Close Higher, While Live Cattle Walk Backwards

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts closed higher, but the live cattle market ended the day lower. No cash cattle trade has developed and won't likely until Thursday or Friday. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.54 with a weighted average price of $91.85 on 4,249 head. May corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 263.71 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Traders ran the live cattle contracts sharply higher through Monday's market, but they weren't nearly as bold and braze through Tuesday's trade. June live cattle closed $0.90 lower at $177.15, August live cattle closed $0.90 lower at $175.50 and October live cattle closed $0.57 lower at $179.37. It is worth noting that the spot June contract did close above the market's 100-day moving average, but unless the complex again trades higher on Wednesday, Monday's rally may not amount to much more. No cash cattle trade has developed and most likely that trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday. Feedlots are anticipated to price cattle higher this week. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.47 ($297.40) and select up $0.89 ($292.76) with a movement of 147 loads (98.72 loads of choice, 18.16 loads of select, 7.40 loads of trim and 22.56 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Feedlots may price cattle higher this week, but with boxed beef movement being sluggish, it's unlikely that traders pay more money for cattle as they can simply just cut kills if they need to.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with the nearby live cattle contracts rounding out the day weaker, the feeder cattle market charged onward through Tuesday's trade and closed fully higher. It was interesting to note that the September 2024 through November 2024 contracts saw the biggest daily gains. May feeders closed $0.87 higher at $246.05, August feeders closed $0.92 higher at $259.40 and September feeders closed $1.10 higher at $260.47. I credit most of Tuesday's success in the futures complex to the continued support of buyers in the countryside who have been relentless in their buying of feeder cattle this year. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week, feeder steers sold $3.00 to $7.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $6.00 to $12.00 higher. Supply was moderate with very good demand. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index April 22: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex traded higher throughout Tuesday's trade and saw the biggest gains in the nearby contracts. June lean hogs closed $2.45 higher at $107.95, July lean hogs closed $2.27 higher at $109.95 and August lean hogs closed $2.12 higher at $107.10. It was disappointing to see the carcass price close lower, which was primarily due to the $23.70 drop in the belly. In order for the market to continue to trade higher and potentially take on the resistance that was established during the second week of April. Pork cutouts totaled 292.97 loads with 274.51 loads of pork cuts and 18.47 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.84, $96.86. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 19,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index April 19: down $0.04, $91.31.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though pork cutout values closed lower, packers will need to buy more hogs before the week's over as processing speeds are running aggressively.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Feeders Continue to Grind Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle complex isn't trading higher but that hasn't delayed any progress in the feeder cattle market thus far. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is continuing to trade higher as well, as traders believe demand will keep the market well supported. May corn is up 2 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 247.72 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly lower into Tuesday's noon hour as the market seems to catch its breath after Monday's aggressive sprint. As of this point, it is promising however to see that traders are respecting the market's previous resistance threshold at $175.50 and keep the market above that price point. If traders let the market close below that point, it will signal some weakness. June live cattle are down $1.15 at $176.92, August live cattle are down $0.82 at $175.52 and October live cattle are down $0.47 at $179.45. No cash cattle trade has developed and it's not likely that the market will see any trade unfold until Thursday or Friday. Bids and asking prices are still elusive, but feedlots are expected to price cattle higher this week.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.69 ($299.62) and select up $0.74 ($292.61) with a movement of 71 loads (35.95 loads of choice, 12.58 loads of select, 5.15 loads of trim and 17.78 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with the live cattle contracts trading slightly lower, the feeder cattle complex has maintained its positive position and continues to trade higher into Tuesday's noon hour. The momentum that stemmed from Friday's lower placements was just the kick of encouragement that the market needed as it also ignited higher feeder cattle sales in the countryside. At this point, it's looking like the feeder cattle complex possesses enough support to potentially round out the day higher even without the live cattle market's support. May feeders are up $1.00 at $246.17, August feeders are up $0.90 at $259.40 and September feeders are up $1.35 at $260.72.

LEAN HOGS:

Even with the midday pork cutout values being doing notably, the lean hog complex is charging onward and hopes that the day's afternoon cutout price will lend the market support. June lean hogs are up $2.12 at $107.62, July lean hogs are up $1.77 at $109.45 and August lean hogs are up $1.97 at $106.92. The cash cattle market still hasn't seen much packer interest develop, but with the market's stronger tone and the continued aggressive pace in processing, packers could get more aggressive later this afternoon or likely on Wednesday.

The projected lean hog index for April 22 is up $0.14 at $91.45 and the actual index for April 19 is down $0.04 at $91.31. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $91.01, ranging from $90.00 to $92.00 on 995 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.60. Pork cutouts total 133.48 loads with 122.71 loads of pork cuts and 10.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.39, $98.31.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Follow-Through Price Strength Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle gapped higher in the open Monday and never looked back. The bullish implications of the Cattle on Feed report provided the fodder needed for traders to buy aggressively into the market. The concerns about impact on beef demand due to avian flu in dairy cattle were put on the back burner and this is possibly becoming old news. It has not been discovered in beef cattle and it is not a threat to the beef supply. The market seems to be moving back to the fundamentals of tight cattle numbers that likely will be seen throughout this year. The downside to price potential is packers continue to reduce processing speeds in an attempt to back up cattle and improve margins. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $0.26 and select up $1.04.

Hogs moved higher Monday, but not with the same gusto as cattle. Traders were uncertain about cash during the day as the National Direct Morning report did not show any changes due to confidentiality. However, the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed the cash price up $1.82 with a weighted average price of $90.31. Cutouts did well to begin the week with values up $1.61. Packers are aggressively looking for hogs to maintain the higher slaughter pace due to good demand. Futures may be poised to retest the highs.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There may be further follow-through of cattle futures Tuesday as traders may be turning more bullish on the market again.	1)	Strong cattle futures on Monday were a reaction to the Cattle on Feed report. However, the slower slaughter pace and increasing weights may limit upside potential.
2)	Feedlots will hold out for higher cash again this week as their patience paid off last week, limiting the decline. Higher futures will provide further resolve to hold out.	2)	The chart gaps left on the open on Monday will be filled at some point, requiring a price retracement.
3)	Higher cash to begin the week is positive as the packers need hogs and want to get them early. The need to maintain the higher slaughter pace.	3)	Hog futures are up against minor chart resistance, which may limit gains for the time being.
4)	Strong pork cutouts Monday indicated weekend demand was good and retailers wanted pork to replenish the meat case.	4)	Pork demand is good but upside price potential may be limited to keep retail prices from moving too high and reducing demand.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Closes Out Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a riveting day throughout the cattle complex as Friday's Cattle on Feed report gave the market the support it needed to allow the live cattle market to close above its resistance threshold.

Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.82 with a weighted average price of $90.31 on 689 head. May corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 253.58 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a good day for the live cattle complex as the market gapped higher right from Monday's start and traded higher through the day's end. It was worth noting the spot June contract closed above the market's resistance at $175.50, signaling traders are confident about this move. The market's rekindled bullishness likely encourages feedlots to price cattle higher this week. It will be a tough conversation in trying to get packers to pay more for cattle as they've slowly built up supplies and reduced processing speeds to negate the cash cattle market from trading uncontrollably higher.

June live cattle closed $2.37 higher at $178.05, August live cattle closed $2.85 higher at $176.40 and October live cattle closed $3.20 higher at $179.95. New showlists appear to be mixed: higher in Texas but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head -- 8,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Northern live cattle traded at $292 to $294 but mostly at $292, $1 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at $180 to $183, but mostly at $182, steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 67,898 head. Of that, 83% (56,224 head) was committed to the nearby delivery and the remaining 17% (11,674 head) committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.26 ($295.93) and select up $1.04 ($291.87) with a movement of 104 loads (68.00 loads of choice, 12.34 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 23.30 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that carcass weights are growing heavier and packers have reduced processing speeds, it's unlikely that cattle will trade much better than steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex had no issue closing higher Monday afternoon as the market was well supported throughout today's trade, thanks to the added support from Friday's Cattle on Feed report, showing March placements down 12% from a year ago. May feeder cattle closed $3.17 higher at $245.17, August feeders closed $4.97 higher at $258.47 and September feeders closed $4.95 higher at $259.37. The report's bullishness even supported feeder cattle sales in the countryside as higher tones were noted there, too. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, at their midsession point and when compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were trading $4 to $8 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 85%. The CME feeder cattle index April 19: up $0.38, $242.11.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex grew stronger as the day traded onward. It started with only the nearby lean hog contracts trading higher but by Monday's close, the entire marketplace saw higher gains. Contributing most to today's upward trend seemed to be the support of both processing speeds and strong pork cutout values. The afternoon carcass price closed to close higher and was comprehensively supported by the vast majority of cuts.

The belly closed $6.06 higher, the rib closed $4.21 higher and the picnic closed $3.35 higher. Pork cutouts totaled 234.38 loads with 204.68 loads of pork cuts and 29.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.61, $101.70. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 20,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index April 18: down $0.11, $91.35.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that pork cutout values are seeing ample support early this week, it's likely packers will show more interest in Tuesday's cash market.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Rally Over Supportive Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex is rallying in excitement over Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed (COF) report. Heading into Monday afternoon, it's important to monitor whether the spot June live cattle contract can close above the market's 100-day moving average. May corn is up 4 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 173.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex boldly ran higher by midday as the market rallies, thanks to last Friday's supportive COF report. June live cattle are up $1.92 at $177.60, August live cattle are up $2.62 at $176.17 and October live cattle are up $2.87 at $179.62. There are a couple of big takeaways so far from Monday's bullish push. First, it seems the nervousness and fear surrounding the avian influenza outbreak has run its course through the market and traders are ready to refocus on the market's long-term bullish fundamentals. Secondly, it's encouraging to see the spot June contract trading above its 100-day moving average. If the complex can indeed close above that threshold, that signals strength and bullishness throughout the market.

Last week, Northern live cattle traded at $292 to $294 but mostly at $292, $1 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at $180 to $183, but mostly at $182, steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 67,898 head. Of that, 83% (56,224 head) were committed to the nearby delivery and the remaining 17% (11,674 head) committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.24 ($295.91) and select up $0.60 ($291.43) with a movement of 51 loads (28.87 loads of choice, 5.87 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 15.90 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is back to trading higher as the market thrives on the support gained by Friday's COF report. Even though midday corn prices are trading $0.04 to $0.05 higher, the market finds more credence in the market's new-found support and is confidently trading higher into Monday's noon hour.

May feeder cattle are up $3.82 at $245.82, August feeder cattle are up $5.37 at $258.87 and September feeders are up $5.05 at $259.47.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex isn't trading with as much gusto as cattle contracts but even so, nearby contracts are still trading mildly higher. Helping the lean hog complex right now is the higher midday pork cutout values at the week's start. Packers have been running aggressive, processing speeds in the hog sector. To keep doing so, packers need to see consistent consumer demand. June lean hogs are up $0.62 at $105.45, July lean hogs are up $1.15 at $107.62 and August lean hogs are up $0.92 at $104.97.

The projected lean hog index for April 19 is down $0.04 at $91.31 and the actual index for April 18 is down $0.11 at $9.35. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 377 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average sits at $88.87. Pork cutouts total 145.32 loads with 125.22 loads of pork cuts and 20.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.56, $101.65.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Expected To Open Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The numbers on the Cattle on Feed report were surprising to the trade making it an interesting beginning of the week. The number of cattle on feed was one percent below the average trade estimate at 101%. Placements were 4.8% below the average trade estimate of 88%. Both the on-feed and placement numbers were below the bottom of the range of trade estimates and would make it bullish for futures. However, marketings came in at 86% which was 3% below the average trade estimate and below the range of estimates making it bearish. Taking it as a whole, the report seems to be neutral to slightly bullish. The knee-jerk reaction to the report should be a higher opening today. Support may be seen from the fact that Southern cash cattle traded at steady money last week while Northern cattle traded $1.00 lower. This was much better than had been anticipated earlier in the week. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $0.13 and select up $1.56. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds selling 5,104 live cattle futures contracts reducing their net long positions to 37,032 futures contracts. Fund sold 1,838 feeder cattle contracts reducing their net long positions to 4,181 futures contracts.

Hog futures had an impressive day posting triple-digit gains in contracts through October. The strength was not supported by cash as the National Direct Afternoon Hogs report showed a decline of $1.29. This more than offset the slight increase in cutouts of $0.13. The strength on Friday quickly moved futures above the recent sideways trading range that had developed. Further short-covering and additional buying interest may develop today. The packers may hold back seeing how pork movement was over the weekend before actively buying hogs. However, increased slaughter should keep them active this week. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds reducing their net long positions by 5,096 contracts to a net long position of 88,008 futures contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The on-feed cattle numbers as of August 1 of one percent below the trade estimates should support futures.	1)	Lower cattle marketings in March may have been due to lower cattle numbers but more likely the impact of packers reducing chain speed.
2)	Placement in feedlots in March was 4.8% below the average trade estimate and the range of estimates should support the market.	2)	Traders may look past this report and focus on current demand and the economy.
3)	The strong breakout of hog futures above the recent sideways trading range may result in further short-covering today.	3)	Without the support of cash and only minor support of cutouts on Friday, hogs may slip back into the recent trading range.
4)	Strong pork demand and increased slaughter may keep packers aggressive this week.	4)	There could be some unwinding of spreads between the nearby and the differed contracts after the aggressive trading on Friday.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Stronger Tones Keep with Most of the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, it was a good day for the livestock complex as both the live cattle and lean hog markets closed higher, and the feeder cattle market seemed to retreat in preparation for Friday's Cattle on Feed report which ended up being rather supportive to the feeder cattle market. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, down $1.29 with a weighted average price of $88.49 on 1,268 head. May corn is up 6 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 211.02 points.

Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $2.57, June live cattle up $4.20; April feeder cattle up $3.73, May feeder cattle up $7.80; June lean hogs up $2.75, July lean hogs up $2.23; May corn down $0.02, July corn down $0.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a late trading week for the cash cattle market but given that prices traded steady in the South and only $1.00 lower in the North -- I'd say that feedlots managers have to be glad that they waited the week out and took their time marketing their showlists. It wasn't until around Friday's noon hour that trade finally began to develop which helped the live cattle contracts ease into Friday's afternoon with stronger tones. June live cattle closed $0.30 higher at $175.67, August live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $173.55 and October live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $176.75. The futures complex performed relatively well throughout the week given that the market's weekly fundamentals weren't all that supportive. Traders weren't willing to advance the market above the resistance threshold at $175.50 -- but they did send the market right up to that price point. Whether or not the market possesses enough strength to take out that $175.50 resistance level will again be a question for next week's market to answer. Throughout the week Norther dressed cattle traded at $292 which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average and Southern live cattle traded at $182 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 20,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 620,000 head -- which is 17,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.13 ($295.67) and select up $1.56 ($290.83) with a movement of 126 loads (77.24 loads of choice, 20.01 loads of select, 16.21 loads of trim and 12.93 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It was impressive that feedlots were able to keep the cash market from trading any lower than it did, which could potentially signal that packers need more cattle than they're letting on.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though Friday's feeder cattle market rounded out the week on a slightly lower note, all in all, the feeder cattle market's performance was strong throughout the week. Given that the live cattle complex closed slightly higher, it appears as though the feeder cattle market pulled back ahead of Friday's close in preparation for the Cattle on Feed report and with respect to the fact that corn prices were trading slightly higher. May feeders closed $0.55 lower at $242.00, August feeders closed $0.80 lower at $253.50 and September feeders closed $0.87 lower at $254.42. Given the sharp decline in placements on Friday's COF report, it's likely that the feeder cattle complex trades higher on Monday. You can access DTN's Cattle on Feed comments here:

The Weekly Oklahoma Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to a week ago and throughout the entire state, steers and heifers over 700 pounds traded steady to $5.00 higher, but steers and heifers under 700 pounds sold $1.00 to $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows and bulls traded $6.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/18/2024: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

Upon seeing support in the day's pork cutout values, traders shot the lean hog contracts higher ahead of the week's end. June lean hogs closed $2.12 higher at $104.82, July lean hogs closed $2.12 higher at $106.47 and August lean hogs closed $2.27 higher at $104.05. The market was let down and disappointed in Thursday's export report, but the steady support in cutout values in Friday's market helped propel the contracts higher on Friday. What was potentially most impressive about the slight uptick in cutout values is that the afternoon carcass price was well supported by all the cuts -- not by any major jump in just one of the cuts. Pork cutouts totaled 214.37 loads with 196.96 loads of pork cuts and 17.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.13, $100.09. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 67,000 head. The CME lean hog index 4/17/2024: up $0.10, $91.46.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given that packers have been running slightly strong processing speeds, it's likely that cash prices will remain mostly steady until midweek when packers get more aggressive in the cash market.