Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Sell Steady to $1.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed as the lean hog market found support late in the week, but the cattle contracts were leery of what the cash cattle market was going to do ahead of the day's end and closed slightly lower. Thankfully feedlot managers were able to get cattle sold steady to $1.00 higher compared to last week's weighted averages. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.14 with a weighted average price of $89.17 on 3,283 head. September corn is down 15 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 63.39 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $5.90, August live cattle up $2.28; August feeder cattle up $0.93, September feeder cattle down $0.25; July lean hogs down $2.47, August lean hogs up $0.17; July corn down $0.38, September corn down $0.33.

LIVE CATTLE:

The cash cattle market may not have traded as high as some thought it was going to, but steady to $1.00 gains on top of last week's aggressive push is still a win for feedlots. Trade was slow to develop as feedlots wanted to make sure that they were working the market to its fullest potential before they allowed any of their pens to be sold. Some light trade has been reported at $312 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some Southern live cattle have traded at $190 which is roughly steady with last week's weighted average. There's still a chance given that only a few sales have been reported that the market could see prices improve for those who are still waiting to sell, which we will have to wait until Monday's confirmed report to see where the week's weighted averages land. But for cattle left on showlists, Southern feedlots are asking $192 to $195, and Northern feedlots are asking $315 plus.

Traders grew tired of waiting for the cash cattle market to trade and let prices drift slightly lower ahead of the day's end. August live cattle closed $1.02 lower at $185.42, October live cattle closed $0.87 lower at $184.87 and December live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $185.90.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 16,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 609,000 head -- 11,000 head less than a week ago and 41,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.99 ($326.32) and select up $1.80 ($304.50) with a movement of 94 loads (59.98 loads of choice, 13.26 loads of select, 9.33 loads of trim and 11.03 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that next week's slaughter will be reduced because of the holiday, it's likely that cash prices hold steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The cash cattle market waited to trade until after Friday's close which pressured traders ahead of the day's end and ultimately led to the feeder cattle complex's weaker end for the week. August feeders closed $1.35 lower at $259.30, September feeders closed $1.75 lower at $259.65 and October feeders closed $1.80 lower at $260.00. Again, the feeder cattle market is currently trading in a mixed scenario as the futures complex dances back and forth trying to discern if a higher trend is appropriate, all while the market's fundamentals continues to grind higher without skipping a beat and without being worried about what the futures market is doing. The utter fact that earlier this week the CME feeder cattle index closed above $259 is proof of how strong the cash market is. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers sold steady to $3.00 higher, but feeder heifers traded steady to $3.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves were $4.00 to $8.00 lower. The sale report noted that demand for bawling calves has softened as temperatures continue to rise which inflicts more stress on the cattle. Slaughter cows and bulls traded mostly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 72%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/27/2024: down $0.44, $258.60.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to keep its momentum through the day's end as the market has finally found some technical support and it was also helpful that pork cutout values closed higher too. July lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $89.57, August lean hogs closed $1.40 higher at $89.50 and October lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $75.72. It was also promising to see that the carcass price's higher close stemmed mainly from the rib's $6.22 gain and the ham's $7.54 jump. Pork cutouts totaled 230.98 loads with 188.22 loads of pork cuts and 42.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.99, $97.89. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 27,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is estimated 63,000 head. The CME lean hog index 6/26/2024: down $0.17, $89.75.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that market will be closed on Thursday for Independence Day, packers will likely need to be more aggressive earlier in the week in the cash market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Feedlot Managers Continue to Hold Out For More Money

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle and lean hog contracts are trading higher into Friday's noon hour, but the live cattle contracts are hanging back as the market waits to see what cash cattle prices do later this afternoon. Bids are currently being offered in both regions, but feedlots are holding out for higher prices. September corn is down 17 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28.84 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is still in a toe-tapping, time-passing holding period as largely the cash cattle market has yet to see any business develop. Yes, a few cattle sold live in western Nebraska at $198, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average; but the rest of the market isn't sold on the idea of accepting packer offers just yet as they continue to hold out for more money. Bids of $188 live are currently offered in Kansas and Texas, and bids of $198 live and $312 dressed in Nebraska -- but feedlot managers are sticking to their guns and holding out for more money. Asking prices are noted at $192 to $195 in the South and $315 plus in the North. To feedlots' benefit, boxed beef prices are higher again, which could help incentivize packers to get busy in the cash market as beef prices are climbing and demand is strong. The live cattle contracts have flip-flopped between higher and lower prices multiple times Friday morning as they desperately want to see some cash cattle trade develop but nothing sizeable has shaken out of the market yet. August live cattle are down $0.60 at $185.85, October live cattle are down $0.52 at $185.22 and December live cattle are down $0.42 at $186.57.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.40 ($325.73) and select up $2.11 ($304.81) with a movement of 56 loads (41.92 loads of choice, 7.91 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.47 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading fully higher into Friday's noon hour as the market is hopeful fed cash cattle prices will trade higher later Friday afternoon but is seeing ample support from its own cash market as just Thursday afternoon the CME Feeder Cattle Index closed at $259.04! The feeder cattle complex has chopped merely sideways this week as traders don't want to get too far ahead of the cash market, even though fundamentally the market continues to see dynamite support. August feeders are up $0.77 at $261.17, September feeders are up $0.65 at $262.04 and October feeders are up $0.70 at $262.50.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has already moved past Thursday's neutral/somewhat bearish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report as the contracts are trading fully higher into Friday's noon hour. July lean hogs are up $0.15 at $89.60, August lean hogs are up $1.12 at $89.22 and October lean hogs are up $0.77 at $75.50. It's impressive that traders are moving the contracts given that pork cutout values are lower again this morning and that cash prices are slightly weaker too.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $2.13 with a weighted average price of $87.46, ranging from $85.00 to $89.00 on 1,383 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.94. Pork cutouts total 146.05 loads with 119.05 loads of pork cuts and 26.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.93, $99.83.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs and Pigs Report Provides Little Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trade is being pushed back until Friday, leaving traders guessing what will transpire. There is optimism for higher cash as feedlots hold out. There were a few dressed cattle traded in Iowa but insufficient to provide solid direction. The June live cattle contract goes off the board Friday and showed a strong gain Thursday with the market closing at a contract high. August will take over as the lead month and currently shows a discount of nearly $6.00. Weekly export sales showed improvement over last week at 16,700 metric tons (mt), up 13%. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up $0.48 and select down $0.16. Feeder cattle prices remain strong at auctions, but futures are waiting for cash cattle to trade to provide solid direction.

The much-awaited Hogs and Pigs report came and went without much fanfare. The report is considered neutral. All hogs and pigs on June 1 were at 101% of last year and slightly lower than the average estimate. Hogs kept for breeding were at 97% with a trade estimate of 97.8%. Hogs kept for marketing were at 102% of last year with the trade estimate of 101.6%. This report likely will not be much of a market mover. Weekly export sales were supportive with 39,220 mt sold, an increase of 83% from the previous week. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report was up $0.39 with a weighted average of $89.03. Unfortunately, cutouts declined by $0.62.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The August live cattle contract will take over as the lead month to close out the week and holds nearly a $6.00 discount to the expiring June contract.	1)	Cattle traders were cautious yesterday even though there is optimism over better cash. Steady or lower cash trade may trigger heavy selling.
2)	Feedlots are holding for higher cash and packers may need to pay higher prices to obtain the cattle they need for slaughter.	2)	High prices will cure high prices and the cattle market may be near the point where demand may be impacted.
3)	Now that the hog report has been released and digested traders might be willing to buy into the market at these lower prices.	3)	Both cash and cutouts continue to struggle as the market tries to find solid support. Pork demand remains less than desired with continued strong slaughter.
4)	The strong pork export sales may reflect international buyers taking advantage of the lower pork prices.	4)	Hog weights should be declining seasonally, but remain significantly higher than a year ago. This leaves plenty of pork available to the market.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - What Will This Week's Cash Cattle Market Do?

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed as on one hand traders were tiresome waiting for the cash cattle market to trade, and on the other hand they were anxious about seeing what the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was going to do. Still no significant cash cattle trade has developed. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.39 with a weighted average price of $89.03 on 1,828 head. July corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 36.26 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 16,700 mt for 2024 were up 13% from the previous week and 17% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,000 mt), China (4,000 mt) and South Korea (3,500 mt). Pork net sales of 39,200 mt for 2024 were up 83% from the previous week and 25% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (20,200 mt), Japan (5,900 mt) and Canada (4,200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was trading higher early in the day, but as the afternoon drug on, traders grew less and less patient as they continue to wait for the cash cattle market to trade. Feedlots are determined to see again cash prices reported higher this week so it comes as no surprise that the market is waiting to trade until Friday as feedlots want to pressure packers into paying more. Asking prices are noted in the South at $192 to $194, and at $315 plus in the North. August live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $186.45, October live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $185.75 and December live cattle closed $0.62 lower at $187.00. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.48 ($323.33) and select down $0.16 ($302.70) with a movement of 117 loads (64.74 loads of choice, 23.85 loads of select, 10.78 loads of trim and 17.26 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. At this stage in the game, feedlots possess the market's leverage and the only card in which packers can really play is to cut processing speeds, but with beef prices as high as they are and given that processing speeds have already been reduced, packers don't have much say in the market's current play.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Following Wednesday's impressive technical jump, the feeder cattle complex wasn't as powerful throughout Thursday's trade as it was the day before. It's not likely that traders regret their upward push on Wednesday, but more so that they're simply waiting for the cash cattle market to trade and to receive that reassurance that the market's fundamentals are indeed in support of higher prices again this upcoming week. August feeders closed $1.12 lower at $260.65, September feeders closed $1.07 lower at $261.40 and October feeders closed $1.10 lower at $261.80. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico, compared to last week steer and heifer stocker calves were steady to $5.00 higher. Feeder steer and heifers were mostly steady. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $6.00 to $9.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 27%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/26/2024: up $0.73, $259.04.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex didn't seem overly thankful of the export report's fruitful showing, but instead sat quietly waiting for the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to come out which was deemed neutral to somewhat bearish given that the marketing inventory was up 2%. Access DTN's Hogs and Pigs Report comments here:

August lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $186.45, October lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $185.75 and December lean hogs closed $0.62 lower at $187.00. With both pork cutout values and the Quarterly report somewhat bearish, it's likely that Friday's trade will be lower. Pork cutouts totaled 239.58 loads with 197.44 loads with 42.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.62, $94.90. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 22,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/25/2024: up $0.07, $89.92.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that it will be Friday and that next week has a major holiday which will cut production, prices will likely be lower.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Pull Back Slightly Ahead of the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog contracts are trading slightly lower as the market anxiously waits to see what this afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report shares, but the cattle complex is hopeful that cash cattle prices are going to trade higher again this week, so the nearby live cattle contracts and the entire feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into the noon hour. July corn is down 4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 96.32 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 16,700 mt for 2024 were up 13% from the previous week and 17% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,000 mt), China (4,000 mt) and South Korea (3,500 mt). Pork net sales of 39,200 mt for 2024 were up 83% from the previous week and 25% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (20,200 mt), Japan (5,900 mt) and Canada (4,200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The nearby live cattle contracts continue to grind higher as the market is anxiously tapping its toes, waiting to see what feedlot managers do with this week's cash cattle trade. Asking prices are noted in the South at $192 to $194, and in the North at $315 plus, but still no cattle have traded as packers know that they're currently at the mercy of feedlots given that supplies are so current. Packer demand will likely improve throughout the afternoon, but it's likely that the bulk of the week's trade will be delayed until Friday as feedlots are aiming to advance the market again this week. August live cattle are up $0.27 at $187.02, October live cattle are up $0.30 at $186.42 and December live cattle are up $0.05 at $187.67.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.35 ($323.20) and select up $0.04 ($302.90) with a movement of 60 loads (32.92 loads of choice, 16.53 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.75 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the market growing more and more confident in the fact that fed cash cattle prices will trade higher again this week, the feeder cattle contracts are trading fully higher into Thursday's noon hour. Between the additional market support that's seeping over from the live cattle contracts and their slightly higher tone to the continued support of tremendous feeder cattle demand in the countryside amid slightly lower corn prices -- feeders are ready for action as the market's horizon is bright and lined with ample support. August feeders are up $0.17 at $261.95, September feeders are up $0.12 at $262.60 and October feeders are up $0.10 at $263.00.

LEAN HOGS:

As the lean hog complex patiently waits for this afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, traders are leery of doing much of anything ahead of seeing what today's report yields. The morning's export report was fruitful however as the week's exports totaled 39,200 metric tons, which is especially encouraging right now as the market is desperate for demand -- in any shape and form. July lean hogs are down $0.70 at $89.20, August lean hogs are down $1.02 at $87.95 and October lean hogs are down $0.72 at $74.65.

The projected lean hog index for 6/26/2024 is down $0.17 at $89.75, and the actual index for 6/25/2024 is up $0.07 at $89.92. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.85 with a weighted average price of $89.59, ranging from $82.00 to $93.50 on 1,568 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.69. Pork cutouts total 121.98 loads with 105.52 loads of pork cuts and 16.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.57, $93.15.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report Day

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures pushed higher to move above chart resistance and closed near the highs. The strong cash trade last week and the optimism for higher cash this week fueled the rally. The June live cattle contract will go off the board Friday and adjusted to cash and the expected settlement price. Cash prices for this week have not yet been determined. Feedlots are holding for higher prices as they feel they maintain the upper hand. Beef demand has not declined seasonally but seems to have increased even at the higher prices. Boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday with choice down $0.54 and select down $2.40. Feeder cattle moved higher along with the live cattle. The continued strength of cash cattle and tighter cattle numbers keep feeder prices higher at auctions as feedlots are aggressively purchasing feeders with lower grain prices reducing the cost of finishing them.

Hogs had a banner Wednesday, likely driven by traders positioning themselves ahead of the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be released Thursday afternoon. Fund traders have moved to a net-short futures position and may reduce their exposure in the event the report turns out to be bullish. Added to that is the extremely oversold position of the market. Cash did not support the move on Wednesday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report down $0.57 with the weighted average at $88.64. Pork cutouts increased by $0.21 but had limited influence on the market. The trade estimates all hogs and pigs on June 1 at 101.3% of a year ago on the report Thursday. The range of estimates is 100.4% to 102.0%. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated at 97.8% with the range of 97.0% to 99.0%. Hogs kept for marketing are estimated at 101.6% with a range of 100.7% to 102.5%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures pushed through and closed above chart resistance which may increase further buying interest.	1)	If the cash cattle trade is no better than steady this week, it may be disappointing to the trade and result in selling pressure on futures.
2)	The expectation for higher cash trade has grown with cash cattle expected to trade Thursday.	2)	Beef demand may slow after the week of July 4 as summer usually sees a slowing of demand as hot weather impacts consumer preferences.
3)	Further short-covering may continue as traders prepare for the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report Thursday afternoon.	3)	The strength of hog futures was not triggered by cash or cutouts. It was likely traders positioning ahead of the report.
4)	Strong pork export sales may support the market as lower prices may have improved international interest.	4)	The supply of hogs is plentiful, leaving packers unaggressive in the cash market. The average weight of hogs is 9.6 pounds above a year ago.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Support Keeps with the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a fruitful day for the entire livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher and it's likely that this week's cash cattle market is going to trade higher too. Thursday will be a busy day for the hog complex especially; but potentially for the cattle market too if cash cattle trade begins to develop, as the morning will release the weekly export report and later in the afternoon the market will see the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.57 with a weighted average price of $88.64 on 4,062 head. July corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15.64 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Today's trade was nearly a "perfect storm" for the cattle complex as traders' demand was plentiful and the market's fundamentals were incredible with beef demand strong and the cash cattle market continuing to rally. Yes, boxed beef prices may have closed slightly lower, but it's unusual for the market to be trading strong still as historically seasonal summertime prices would have already topped for both the boxed beef and fed cash cattle markets. It's worth noting that the spot August contract closed at its highest price point since last October. Today's rally was a big throttle forward to the cattle market's rallying engine as the cash market has been carrying the lion's share of the market's weight, but seeing this much technical support and interest, traders jumped on board and helped contribute to the market's gusto. August live cattle closed $2.32 higher at $186.75, October live cattle closed $1.77 higher at $186.12 and December live cattle closed $1.47 higher at $187.62. Asking prices in the South are noted at $192 to $194 but are still not established in the North.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.54 ($322.85) and select down $2.40 ($302.86) with a movement of 134 loads (92.99 loads of choice, 22.01 loads of select, 4.26 loads of trim and 14.44 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With how strong the board is performing and given that feedlots continue to possess the market's leverage, prices will likely be higher again this week. The real question is: How much higher?

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle complex seeing ample trader support, the feeder cattle contracts kicked into high gear and closed over $2.00 higher throughout their entire market. Today's rallying nature did put the spot August contract to close above its 100-day moving average which is always a positive signal in the cattle complex. August feeders closed $2.72 higher at $261.77, September feeders closed $2.40 higher at $262.47 and October feeders closed $2.30 higher at $262.90. Most sale barns won't have a sale next week in respect to Independence Day. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas compared to last week steer and heifer calves were not well tested, but on yearling steers and heifers, prices were $3.00 to $5.00 higher. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 80%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/26/2024: up $0.41, $258.31.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex also had a fruitful day as its contracts were able to close higher and the market was well supported by strong daily fundamentals as pork cutout values closed higher and even though the cash market's weighted average was slightly lower, a sizeable volume of hogs was traded. July lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $89.90, August lean hogs closed $2.22 higher at $88.97 and October lean hogs closed $1.77 higher at $75.37. The afternoon's carcass prices were skewed by the belly's $12.52 jump, but hey, a higher close is a higher close. But with the current swings in which we've seen in the belly, carcass price volatility will likely remain which isn't settling to traders to note. Remember, Thursday will be a big report-hitting day for the hog complex as traders will note the morning's exports sales report and then be anxious to see what the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report produces. Pork cutouts totaled 207.11 loads with 175.05 loads of pork cuts and 32.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.21, $95.52. The CME lean hog index 6/24/2024: down $0.05, $89.85.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have already been aggressive in this week's cash market, it's likely that they'll be less aggressive later in the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Trading Fully Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Wednesday has thus far been a fruitful day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading higher into the noon hour. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are noted in the South at $192-plus. July corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 35.69 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

At the week's midpoint, traders have finally decided to jump into action and are fully supporting the live cattle complex. Most nearby contracts are trading well over $1.00 higher and the deferred contracts aren't far behind. August live cattle are up $1.42 at $185.85, October live cattle are up $1.37 at $185.72 and December live cattle are up $1.20 at $187.35. Still, no cash cattle trade has developed, but it's likely the board's higher tone will help feedlots hold the market at least steady, if they're not able to push prices higher, which isn't out of the question either. Asking prices are noted in the South at $192 to $194 but are not yet established in the North. Trade will likely be delayed until Friday, as feedlots have their sights set on higher prices.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.44 ($322.95) and select down $0.94 ($304.32) with a movement of 75 loads (56.17 loads of choice, 10.90 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.62 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the corn complex trading lower and seeing the live cattle contracts trading fully higher, feeders are fearlessly charging into Wednesday's noon. With full support from the futures complex, the market currently has all the puzzle pieces it needs to lock in a higher tone as fundamentally demand remains incredibly strong, which is evidenced by Tuesday's CME Feeder Cattle Index of $257.90. August feeders are up $2.00 at $261.05, September feeders are up $1.92 at $262.00 and October feeders are up $1.80 at $262.40.

LEAN HOGS:

Even the lean hog complex is rallying into Wednesday's noon hour, which is refreshing after seeing the complex pressured earlier in the week. Midday pork cutout values are higher, mostly stemming from the big gains in the belly; but at this point traders will take any encouraging news they can come by. Thursday will be a big hitting day for the hog complex as the market will be quick to look at export sales and will wait later in the day to receive the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. July lean hogs are up $0.65 at $89.65, August lean hogs are up $2.07 at $88.82 and October lean hogs are up $1.52 at $75.12.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/25/2024 is up $0.07 at $89.92, and the actual index for 6/24/2024 is down $0.05 at $89.85. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $0.98 with a weighted average price of $88.74, ranging from $83.00 to $90.00 on 3,155 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.36. Pork cutouts total 137.55 loads with 117.41 loads of pork cuts and 20.14 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.21, $97.52.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Remain Choppy

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures traded on both sides of unchanged Tuesday as the market lacked further direction. Traders have a mixed opinion as to cash this week. Boxed beef prices remain supportive as choice gained $0.75 and select gained $0.19. The May Cold Storage report showed the total frozen beef supply at 423.7 million pounds. This decreased 14.8 million pounds from April and was slightly lower than a year ago, indicating demand remains good at these record cash cattle prices. Feeder cattle will take their direction from the strength of live cattle. Demand has been consistent at auctions with buyers purchasing aggressively and at higher prices. The availability of feeders is tight and cattle feeders need to pay up to keep pastures and feedlots full.

Hog futures tried to rebound Tuesday but failed as the day progressed. New contract lows were again established as traders found little to get excited over. Cash was higher with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $2.57, moving the weighted average price to $89.21. This was offset by a decline in cutouts of $2.52 pressured by the weakness of bellies. The supply of frozen pork in May decreased by 17.4 million pounds totaling 481.9 million pounds. This is 8% below a year ago. The belly supply increased by 15.8 million pounds from April but is 19% below a year ago. The Hogs and Pigs report will be released Thursday with the trade estimating all hogs and pigs on June 1 at 101.3% of a year ago. Hogs kept for breeding is estimated at 97.8% with hogs kept for marketing at 101.6%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	With current beef demand where it is, packers cannot afford to decrease purchases and reduce slaughter.	1)	Cattle futures have chart gaps below the current prices. Generally, chart gaps are filled.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to trade no worse than steady this week, further supporting the market.	2)	Beef demand may slow after the July 4th holiday as summer weather usually curtails consumption.
3)	There is always uncertainty surrounding reports with the potential for a bullish surprise on the Hogs and Pigs report.	3)	Hog futures continue to establish new contract lows as lower pork prices have yet to stimulate sufficient demand.
4)	The hog market will find a bottom at some point and maybe the report will provide the catalyst for short-covering and a price retracement.	4)	The inconsistency of cutouts keeps the market under pressure. Prices are unable to find support as demand remains less than desired.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lackadaisical Day for the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Mostly it was a quiet day for the livestock complex with none of the markets seeing much for trader attention. It was disappointing to see pork cutout values close lower, but again the boxed beef prices closed higher which could help cash prices later this week. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.57 with a weighted average price of $89.21 on 9,680 head. July corn is down 8 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 299.05 points.

Tuesday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 3% from the previous month and down 5% from the last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 3% from last month and down slightly from a year ago. Frozen pork supplies were down 3% from last month and down 9% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 7% from last month and down 14% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

Tuesday didn't amount to much for the live cattle complex as the market saw mixed interest from traders as more than anything they're waiting to see what this week's cash cattle market does before they support the contracts hastily. August live cattle closed $0.40 lower at $184.42, October live cattle closed $0.55 higher at $184.35 and December live cattle closed $0.35 higher at $186.15. Thankfully boxed beef prices are continuing to see strong demand so it's likely that feedlots will again aim to advance the cash cattle market while they have the opportunity to do so. Asking prices are still not established, and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday at the earliest. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.75 ($323.39) and select up $0.19 ($305.26) with a movement of 121 loads (72.15 loads of choice, 29.06 loads of select, 8.88 loads of trim and 10.53 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. When the market is carving out new weekly highs, it's tough to determine what prices could be discovered this week as feedlots continue to push into uncharted waters.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Normally one would suspect the feeder cattle complex to close modestly higher on a day where corn prices closed $0.07 to $0.09 lower, but traders remain passive, slow to make any movement in the futures complex as they wait to see what the cash cattle market is going to do this week. August feeders closed $0.15 higher at $259.05, September feeders closed $0.05 lower at $260.07 and October feeders closed $0.07 lower at $260.60. From a fundamental sense, the market remains incredibly strong as buyer demand remains incredible and given the limited supply of cattle in the countryside, prices are expected to remain well supported through the year's end. The CME feeder cattle index 6/24/2024: down $0.44, $257.90.

LEAN HOGS:

Tuesday ended up being a swing and a miss for the lean hog complex as it appeared as though early in the day that trades were going to support the complex, but as the afternoon drew on, trader's confidence dwindled, and the contracts closed mostly lower. July lean hogs closed $0.95 lower at $89.00, August lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $86.75 and October lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $73.60. Traders will likely look at the afternoon pork cutout values and deem their decision to let the contracts drift lower as a good one given that the carcass price fell $2.52 this afternoon. The belly was the leading cause of today's carcass price's weakness as it alone fell $9.21. Pork cutouts totaled 288.98 loads with 233.78 loads of pork cuts and 55.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.52, $95.31. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/21/2024: down $0.42, $89.90.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Even though this afternoon's carcass price closed lower, packers could mildly/modestly support tomorrow's cash market again as today's aggressive purchase likely indicates that they're short bought.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lean Hogs, Live Cattle Trade Mixed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Action in the livestock complex is slow Tuesday as traders note the demand beginning to surface in the hog complex and are careful not to get ahead of themselves in overly supporting the live cattle contracts before seeing what the cash cattle market does. Still, no asking prices have been posted and it's likely the week's trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday. July corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 337.50 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is mixed as traders again note and appreciate the continued support of stronger boxed beef prices. Still, traders do not want to support the futures complex in an overdone fashion ahead of knowing what the cash cattle market will do this week. August live cattle are down $0.52 at $184.30, October live cattle are up $0.35 at $184.15 and December live cattle are up $0.07 at $185.87. The June contract is set to expire on Friday and most traders have already made their move into the August contract. No asking prices are noted yet and it's likely the cash cattle market will wait to trade until Thursday at the earliest.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.16 ($323.80) and select up $2.09 ($307.16) with a movement of 64 loads (33.47 loads of choice, 15.76 loads of select, 5.06 loads of trim and 9.46 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With feeder cattle demand still incredibly strong and the corn complex trading another $0.06 to $0.07 lower this morning, the nearby feeder cattle contracts are mildly higher while the rest of the market is rocked back on its heels, waiting to see what the live cattle contracts and fed cattle market does this week. August feeders are up $0.15 at $259.05, September feeders are up 0.02 at $260.07 and October feeders are down $0.02 at $260.62. It's likely traders will continue to weak-heartedly support the market until there's a better understanding of what exactly the fed cash cattle market will do.

LEAN HOGS:

With midday pork cutout values slightly higher, the lean hog complex is seeing more trader interest in the market's nearby contracts. July lean hogs are up $0.15 at $90.10, August lean hogs are up $0.85 at $87.57 and October lean hogs are up $0.22 at $74.30. The market's biggest limiting factor has been demand, mostly the lack of domestic demand. So, if pork demand begins to improve, traders will likely be more favorable to the lean hog contracts in return.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/24/2024 is down $0.05 at $89.85, and the actual index for 6/21/2024 is down $0.42 at $89.90. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.29 with a weighted average price of $87.76, ranging from $85.00 to $89.00 on 1,730 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.98. Pork cutouts total 166.74 loads with 142.77 loads of pork cuts and 23.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.21, $99.04.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Adjust to Higher Cash

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were slow to support the cattle market Monday as the initial pressure came from the bearish nature of the Cattle on Feed report. However, the fact that cash cattle moved sharply higher last week overrode that bearishness. Futures closed much as how it could have been expected with higher placements impacting late-year contracts while strong cash supports near-term contracts. It is doubtful the strength of cash will be repeated this week, but prices should be supported. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $0.25 and select up $1.96. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds increasing their net-long live cattle position by 2,882 contracts, carrying a net-long position of 55,963. Funds increased their long feeder cattle position by eight contracts with their net-long futures positions at 2,986.

Hogs tumbled to new contract lows in contracts through February. Later contracts closed at new lows. There is no bottom in this market even though there seems to be good demand as packers maintain a strong slaughter pace. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.60 with a weighted average of $86.64. Cutouts did not fare as well with a decline of $1.20. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report Thursday and it is anyone's guess as to the impact that will have on the market. There could be some short-covering ahead of the report. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds reducing their long positions by 8,922 futures contracts putting them net-short 317 contracts. It has been quite some time since funds have been net-short futures in the hog market.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Traders are focused on cash and have discounted the large placement number reported on the Cattle on Feed report. The expectation is for cash to be no worse than steady this week.	1)	The large placement number in May may have bearish ramifications late in the year and could pressure prices.
2)	The large increase of cash cattle last week indicates demand remains strong and packers must purchase cattle aggressively to maintain the slaughter pace.	2)	Cattle futures have a chart gap below the current level which may be filled sooner rather than later.
3)	Hog futures remain extremely oversold with short-covering potential at any time. Any bullish news could be the catalyst to trigger it.	3)	Hog futures making new contract lows again does not bode well for the market technically and fundamentally.
4)	Low prices cure low prices and, certainly, hog prices are low. High beef prices should shift more consumer demand to pork.	4)	The upcoming Hogs and Pigs report may keep traders cautious about buying into the market even though the market seems to be overdone to the downside.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push the Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts were able to round out Monday's trade mostly higher, but with a lack of demand, the lean hog complex ended the day lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.60 with a weighted average price of $86.64 on 3,393 head. July corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $11.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 260.88 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the day mostly higher as traders continue to be well supported and thoroughly impressed with the market's strong fundamentals. So long as beef demand remains strong and the cash cattle market holds at least steady, the market should be able to maintain these levels. August live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $184.82, October live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $183.80 and December live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $185.80. It wouldn't be surprising to see the complex chop sideways until Thursday or Friday when traders will have a better understanding of what the cash cattle market is going to do this week following last week's incredible gain. New showlists appear to be mixed, somewhat higher in Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado and Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head – 1,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle sold for $305 to $312, but mostly at $310 to $312, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. But there were prices reported up to $315 which is $9.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded from $189 to $190 which is $3.00 to $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 73,368 head. Of which 79% (57,696 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 21% (15,672 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.25 ($322.64) and select up $1.96 ($305.07) with a movement of 109 loads (54.13 loads of choice, 29.11 loads of select, 4.66 loads of trim and 20.82 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that boxed beef prices continue to see tremendous demand, there's a chance that cash prices trade higher again this week, if not hold at least steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex flopped back and forth throughout Monday's trade as traders were weighing the pros and cons of the market, trying to determine if Friday's bearish Cattle on Feed report held more clout or if the exciting nature of the fed cattle market amid tremendous cash demand for feeder cattle did. But thankfully by the day's end the market closed higher as traders elected to find confidence in the market's strong fundamentals. August feeders closed $0.52 higher at $258.90, September feeders closed $0.22 higher at $260.12 and October feeders closed $0.05 higher at $260.67. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week feeder steer calves sold $7.00 to $14.00 lower, but yearling steers over 725 pounds sold steady to $6.00 higher. Feeder heifer calves sold $2.00 to $4.00 lower but yearling heifers over 700 pounds sold steady to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 81%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/21/2024: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

With demand continuing to be an issue, the lean hog complex sank lower yet again and broke through the market's current support plane. July lean hogs closed $2.10 lower at $89.95, August lean hogs closed $2.60 lower at $86.72 and October lean hogs closed $2.25 lower at $74.07. The afternoon carcass price fell sharply as the butt fell $6.19 and the loin fell $5.03. The market is in desperate need of better pork demand, and until support comes to fruition, the market's weaker tone will likely remain. Pork cutouts totaled 304.98 loads with 260.96 loads of pork cuts and 44.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.20, $97.83. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head – 14,000 head more than a week ago and 24,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/20/2024: down $0.23, $90.32.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were slightly more aggressive in Monday's market as faster chain speeds make it to where they need more hogs.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Complex Traders Remain Cautious

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock contracts are trading mostly lower into Monday's noon hour as traders assess the marketplace and again look for followed-through fundamental support this week. Please note that on Thursday the hog complex will see the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report released which will be of high importance to its market. July corn is down 6 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 353.40 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mixed as traders have noted Friday's bearish Cattle on Feed report but can't help but be bullish in the market's immediate contracts given how strong the cash cattle market is trading. August live cattle are up $0.62 at $183.77, October live cattle are down $0.47 at $183.15 and December live cattle are down $0.80 at $185.30. It's too early in the week for any bids or asking prices to have been established, but it's likely that feedlots are going to price cattle higher again this week and that trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Last week Northern dressed cattle sold for $305 to $312, but mostly at $310 to $312, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. But there were prices reported up to $315 which is $9.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded from $189 to $190 which is $3.00 to $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.01 ($322.40) and select up $0.72 ($303.83) with a movement of 56 loads (25.64 loads of choice, 15.50 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.88 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex has danced back and forth thus far through Monday's traders -- trying to decide which side of the spectrum demands more clout, the fact that Friday's Cattle on Feed report was bearish or the market's incredibly strong fundamentals? At this point, the entire feeder cattle complex is trading lower into Monday's noon hour, but the market could improve ahead of the day's end as fundamentally market support is impeccable. August feeders are down $0.07 at $258.32, September feeders are down $0.22 at $259.67 and October feeders are down $0.25 at $260.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is still trading lower as traders again look for fundamental support to help the hog market trade higher but with midday pork cutout values down $1.90, fundamental support isn't necessarily flowing into the complex. July lean hogs are down $1.25 at $90.80, August lean hogs are down $1.65 at $87.67 and October lean hogs are down $1.45 at $74.87. The market will be anxious to see Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report which could help forecast what demand will be through the summer.

The projected lean hog index not available at this time. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.01 with a weighted average price of $86.47, ranging from $83.00 to $87.50 on 2,848 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.21. Pork cutouts total 176.35 loads with 152.60 loads of pork cuts and 23.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.90, $97.13.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Expected to Open Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle finished the week with strong gains. Live cattle in the South traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher with Northern dressed cattle trading $4.00 to $6.00 higher. That is an incredible jump in price as packers had to step up due to the need to maintain slaughter and meet demand. To begin Friday, beef export sales were good at 14,900 metric tons (mt), up 24% from the previous week. This provided some support, mainly to the nearby months. Cash cattle did not trade much before the close of the futures market but optimism grew over better cash. However, that optimism remained in check due to the Cattle on Feed report, and rightly so. The report was considered bearish, but there is disbelief over the level of placements. Placements in May were 104% with the average estimate at 98.3%. This was above the top of the range of 102.4%. This was very bearish but not without controversy. Many expressed disbelief placements were that high. Maybe there are more cattle out in the country than the market has given the impression there are. After all, cattle weights are significantly higher than a year ago. On-feed numbers were 100.0% of a year ago and slightly higher than the estimate of 98.9%. Marketings in May were 100%, down slightly from the estimate of 100.3%. This should result in lower futures on the open, but that may be short-lived as strong cash and traders discounting the report may overcome the bearishness. Boxed beef was lower Friday with choice down $0.48 and select down $1.29.

Hog futures drifted into the weekend with little reason for traders to move the market. Pork export sales were lower than desired at 21,400 mt, down 29% from the previous week and 34% lower than the four-week average. Cutout values increased by $1.18 but were offset by cash weakness. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.17 with the weighted average falling to $86.04. Traders do not have sufficient positive news to buy aggressively into the market. Pork demand has been a concern and remains a concern as cash and cutouts remain uninspiring.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Strong cash last week with the weighted average in Nebraska traded at another record high should keep the market supported.	1)	The number of cattle placed in feedlots during May was way above trade expectations. This may result in futures opening substantially lower.
2)	Traders may discount the large placement number on the Cattle on Feed report and focus on continued cash strength and strong slaughter.	2)	The hot weather has settled in much of the country and may impact consumer demand. Increasing beef prices may also affect the movement of beef.
3)	Hog futures were mixed Friday and traded in a narrow range as all of the bearish news may have been absorbed.	3)	Lower cash hogs during most of last week does not bode well for the beginning of the week. The packers will wait to see retail demand before aggressively purchasing hogs.
4)	Hog futures remain oversold and short-covering may be triggered if cash hogs trend higher.	4)	The bounce last week in hog futures was technical and not fundamentally supported. Futures could retest the lows.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade another $3.00 to $6.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feedlot managers are again reaping the benefits of sticking to their guns and waiting until late in the week to market their pens as prices traded anywhere from $3.00 to $6.00 higher again this week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon, down $1.17 with a weighted average price of $86.04 on 3,292 head. July corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15.57 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $0.78, August live cattle down $0.03; August feeder cattle down $3.60, September feeder cattle down $2.80; July lean hogs down $1.60, August lean hogs down $1.13; July corn down $0.15, September corn down $0.17.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,900 mt for 2024 were up 24% from the previous week, but down 7% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,700 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 21,400 mt for 2024 were down 29% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (7,400 mt), Japan (5,800 mt) and the Dominican Republic (2,500 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a busy day for the live cattle complex as traders tried to wait patiently for the cash cattle market to trade, but no cash cattle sales were reported by the time the futures market closed which left traders in a position to trust their gut and hope that cash prices would indeed be higher. Traders elected to allow the nearby contracts to trade slightly higher and given that cash cattle prices have started to trade for anywhere from $3.00 6o $6.00 higher – their bet was a good one! June live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $187.60, August live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $183.15 and October live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $183.62. Only a handful of cattle have traded at the time of this writing, and it will be vital to see exactly how many cattle sold and for what prices on Monday when all the week's sales are reported. Thus, throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle have traded for $310 to $312, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle have traded anywhere from $189 to $191 which is $3.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. It's utterly impressive just how strong the current cash cattle market is -- and feedlot managers deserve a big round of applause for continuing to advance the market while they possess the leverage, because we all know one day the tide will turn.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week and a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 19,000. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 620,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 29,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.48 ($322.39) and select down $1.29 ($303.11) with a movement of 131 loads (86.76 loads of choice, 25.01 loads of select, 9.20 loads of trim and 10.33 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Until we know exactly where the week's weighted averages land, it's tough to call next week's market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed lower as traders were cautious about overly supporting the market ahead of seeing what Friday's Cattle on Feed amounted to. And given that there was a ripple in the report and placements came in 4% higher than a year ago, they're likely thankful for their cautiousness. Click here to access DTN's COF comments:

August feeders closed $1.45 lower at $258.37, September feeders closed $1.27 lower at $259.90 and October feeders closed $1.25 lower at $260.62. Feeders could be under pressure on Monday simply because of the COF report. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers traded $4.00 to $7.00 higher, and steer calves traded $5.00 to $6.00 higher except five weights sold $4.00 to $5.00 lower. Heifers traded $4.00 to $9.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 to $4.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 72%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/20/2024: up $1.68, $257.47.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed as traders were thankful to see a modestly supportive export sales report this morning and were thankful to see domestic demand a touch stronger in this afternoon's closing pork cutout values. It was especially interesting to note that the belly dropped $7.66 lower, but the loin gained $5.06 and the butt closed $6.69 higher which pushed the carcass price higher. July lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $92.05, August lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $89.32 and October lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $76.32. Pork cutouts totaled 299.87 loads with 268.13 loads of pork cuts and 31.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.18, $99.03. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head – 28,000 head more than a week ago and 24,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 46,000 head. The CME lean hog index 6/19/2024: down $0.17, $90.55.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers could be slightly more interested in the cash market early next week than usual given that afternoon pork cutout prices closed higher, but it's still unlikely that they'll support Monday's cash market enough to where cash prices close higher than early in the week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Still Waiting for Cash Cattle Sales to Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex continues to trade mixed as the cattle contracts are holding their breath ahead of the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report and ahead of seeing what this week's cash cattle market does. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading mixed as the nearby contracts take note of the modestly supportive export report and are thankful to see midday pork cutout values higher. July corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $6.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 17.67 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,900 mt for 2024 were up 24% from the previous week, but down 7% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,700 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 21,400 mt for 2024 were down 29% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (7,400 mt), Japan (5,800 mt) and the Dominican Republic (2,500 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to watch time pass by, slowly but surely, as traders are eager to see what feedlot managers accomplish in this week's cash cattle trade. Packer interest has improved as there are bids currently being offered in Kansas at $184 to $185, and in Nebraska at $197 – but still no cattle have traded, and feedlots managers seem bound and determined to get their showlists traded for more money again this week. Asking prices in the South are noted at $189 to $190, and in the North at $310 to $312. Grab your popcorn and coke folks -- this afternoon's market is going to be one worth watching and when cash cattle do begin to trade, it will likely happen in a fast and furious manner! June live cattle are up $0.62 at $187.70, August live cattle are up $0.47 at $183.02 and October live cattle are down $0.30 at $183.52.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.52 ($322.35) and select down $1.74 ($302.66) with a movement of 94 loads (69.32 loads of choice, 12.73 loads of select, 5.58 loads of trim and 6.69 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are keeping with their weaker trend as the market is desperate to see what this week's cash cattle market does and traders have also pulled back as they always do before the Cattle on Feed report is shared. August feeders are down $1.22 at $258.52, September feeders are down $1.15 at $260.02 and October feeders are down $1.12 at $260.75. Unfortunately, it's not likely that the market will see much improvement ahead of the day's end as traders will want to look through the COF data before they do much more in the feeder cattle complex.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed as the market is seeing modest support for its nearby contracts, but the market's deferred contracts are still trading lower. The morning's export report was modestly supportive, and thankfully even midday pork cutout values are higher. It's likely that the July and August contracts could keep their higher tone through the day's end with the support of better domestic pork interest. July lean hogs are up $0.62 at $91.80, August lean hogs are up $0.20 at $89.32 and October lean hogs are down $0.02 at $76.37.

The projected lean hog index for 6/21/2024 is down $0.23 at $90.32 and the actual index for 6/19/2024 is down $0.17 at $90.55. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.81 with a weighted average price of $86.46, ranging from $85.00 to $87.50 on 2,371 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.37. Pork cutouts total 207.10 loads with 190.65 loads of pork cuts and 16.45 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.15, $101.00.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Position Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle seldom trade before Friday when there is a Cattle on Feed report and this week has been no exception. A few were traded Wednesday, but nothing to indicate where the majority will trade. Without cash to provide direction, the focus was on positioning ahead of the Cattle on Feed report to be released Friday afternoon. The average estimate for on feed on June 1 is 98.9% of a year ago. The range of estimates is 98.3% to 99.4%. Cattle placements in May are estimated at 98.3% with a range of 95% to 102.4%. Marketings in May are estimated at 100.3% with estimates ranging from 99.3% to 101.2%. This shows the uncertainty of traders for the placement number due to the wide range. Boxed beef was higher on Thursday with choice up $2.17 and select up $1.14.

The rug was pulled out from under the hog market Thursday with triple-digit losses. The recent price increase was strictly due to short-covering and not fundamentally driven. Support was not seen in cash and cutouts when futures increased. Lower cash Thursday took the steam out of the market. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $0.30 with a weighted average of $87.21. Cutouts showed minor strength with a gain of $0.18, but have been lower for the week. There is a good possibility cash may be higher Friday as that has been the pattern lately. The packers will pay a little more to finish purchasing for the week. Futures could retest the contract lows before the selling pressure subsides.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Boxed beef prices continue to show surprising strength for this time of year. Consumers prefer beef and are willing to pay for it.	1)	Placements during May are a wild card and a number higher than the average estimate may trigger selling in Monday's market.
2)	A few packer bids have been passed, indicating feedlots are holding out for higher prices. Packers will need to raise those bids to purchase cattle.	2)	Higher beef prices are increasing imported beef. Imports from Mexico in May increased 28% with Canadian imports up 11%.
3)	Hog futures may find buying interest near contract lows as the market remains oversold. Traders may not want to press the downside further.	3)	Hog weights remain 8.9 pounds higher than a year ago. A seasonal weight decline may leave hogs considerably higher than a year ago.
4)	Hog weights dropped 1.6 pounds last week, averaging 287.4 pounds. The decline is following a seasonal pattern.	4)	Hog futures may retest contract lows before strong buying interest is uncovered.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Weaker Tones Keep with the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another lousy day for the livestock contracts as traders mostly let the contracts drift lower in all three of the livestock markets. Friday will be a busy day for the livestock industry as the market will anxiously look for the week's export data, then hope to see some cash cattle sales develop and lastly be on the look for the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.30 with a weighted average price of $87.21 on 4,451 head. July corn is down 10 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 299.90 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to trade in its sideways trading range as the market waits for the cash cattle market to trade. It's expected that cattle will trade no less than steady this week, and there's a strong possibility that prices could be even higher this week. At this point, no cattle have traded and throughout the day there was only a bid of $197 offered in Nebraska -- but feedlots elected to that sit on the table and grow cold. Asking prices are noted in the South at $189 but are still not yet established in the North. June live cattle closed $0.40 higher at $187.07, August live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $182.55 and October live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $183.82. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.17 ($322.87) and select up $1.14 ($304.40) with a movement of 98 loads (55.16 loads of choice, 23.37 loads of select, 9.28 loads of trim and 10.07 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Feedlot managers know that packers still need cattle and given that their showlists are current and that boxed beef prices are continuing to trade higher -- it's likely that feedlot managers will play hardball tomorrow and fight aggressively to get cattle traded for more money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though demand continues to support feeder cattle sales in the countryside, the feeder cattle futures market doesn't seem concerned with anything other than the fed cash cattle market at this point. One would logically think that on a day when the corn market closed $0.10 to $0.11 lower the feeder cattle contracts would have closed higher, but that simply wasn't the case as traders continue to sit idle, waiting to see what this week's cash market does before they do too much in the futures complex. August feeders closed $0.12 lower at $259.82, September feeders closed $0.05 higher at $261.17 and October feeders closed $0.10 lower at $261.87. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas compared to last week steers over 850 pounds sold steady to sharply higher, and heifers over 700 pounds sold steady to $5.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $6.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $3.00 to $5.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 93%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/19/2024: down $1.60, $255.47.

LEAN HOGS:

The poor lean hog complex can't seem to win at anything but losing right now. On a day when the afternoon carcass price finally closed higher, of course, it would be the hog market's luck that traders sent the contracts trading sharply lower, and again they're now pressuring the market's current support plane. July lean hogs closed $2.62 lower at $91.15, August lean hogs closed $2.45 lower at $89.12 and October lean hogs closed $2.00 lower at $76.40. The afternoon's carcass price was able to close mildly higher as the belly jumped $10.04, and the rib climbed $5.68 higher. Hopefully, Friday's export report lends the market some additional support. Pork cutouts totaled 220.14 loads with 187.08 loads of pork cuts and 33.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.18, $97.85. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 10,000 head more than a week ago and 20,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/18/2024: down $0.13, $90.72.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have likely already secured their cash needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Send Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Weaker tones have settled into the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading lower into Thursday's noon hour. For the cattle complex, traders seem apprehensive about trading the contracts higher ahead of seeing what this week's cash market does. For the hog sector, spotty consumer demand continues to remain an issue. July corn is down 8 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 116.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Traders are not so patiently waiting on the week's cash cattle trade to develop as they continue to let the contracts drift lower as they wait for bids to begin to surface. It's expected cash cattle will trade higher this week, but traders and feedlot managers know better than to put the cart before the horse and count on that blessing before it actually happens. Asking prices are noted in the South at $189 but remain unestablished in the North. No bids are currently being offered, which likely means trade will be delayed until Friday. June live cattle are up $0.20 at $186.90, August live cattle are down $0.22 at $181.90 and October live cattle are down $0.52 at $183.35.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.90 ($322.60) and select up $0.33 ($303.59) with a movement of 58 loads (32.81 loads of choice, 12.50 loads of select, 4.36 loads of trim and 8.56 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

One would logically think with nearby corn futures trading $0.07 to $0.08 lower, the feeder cattle market would be trading higher amid such excellent feeder cattle demand in the countryside. But traders aren't seeming to approach Thursday's market with that attitude as the feeder cattle contracts are currently lower. More than anything, Thursday's minor weakness stems from a lack of trader confidence. If the cash cattle market were trading higher, or at least steady, then I bet we'd be seeing a different theme in the feeder sector. But until the cash cattle market trades, cautious tones will likely persist. August feeders are down $0.57 at $259.37, September feeders are down $0.45 at $260.67 and October feeders are down $0.55 at $261.42. On Friday there will also be another Cattle on Feed report released which could be causing traders some hesitancy as it usually does.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is again trading lower as traders are desperate to see some consistent demand from U.S. consumers. Unfortunately, the day's midday carcass price is lower and without knowing just yet how the week's exports are going to shake out, traders remain extremely cautious. July lean hogs are down $1.52 at $92.25, August lean hogs are down $1.97 at $89.60 and October lean hogs are down $1.75 at $76.65. Given that it's been a short holiday week, the market's weekly export report will be shared Friday morning.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 6/19/2024 is down $0.17 at $90.55 and the actual index for 6/18/2024 is up $0.13 at $90.72. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $0.27 with a weighted average price $87.27, ranging from $85.00 to $90.00 on 4,238 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.70. Pork cutouts total 143.37 loads with 115.21 loads of pork cuts and 28.16 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.24, $96.43.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders See Little To Get Excited Over

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cash cattle market was quiet Wednesday as expected. A few cattle traded in Iowa at steady money compared to last week. Much of the cash business will be delayed until Friday. Bids and offers will be assessed and decisions made based on what needs to be done. It does not appear packers are short-bought, which may give them the ability to hold back. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $0.18 and select down $0.95. The Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday with the average estimate for on feed on June 1st at 98.9% of a year ago. Placements in May are estimated at 98.3%. Marketings in May are estimated at 100.3%. Traders will be concerned about any surprises and may position themselves accordingly.

Traders have doubts about whether the recent price strength is real or mainly short-covering. The price movement on Tuesday suggests it was mainly short-covering with the market settling back more in line with cash. Rather than selling across the contracts, traders initiated spread trades as they feel later contracts may have more support in the long term. All contracts may struggle Thursday as the National Direct Afternoon Hog report Wednesday showed cash down $1.51 at a weighted average price of $87.51. Pork cutouts declined $0.37 with bellies posting a decline of $5.88. It is unlikely packers will be aggressive Thursday as hogs are readily available.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle market remains supported as demand is strong and cattle remain tight.	1)	Cattle futures have chart gaps below the market that may be filled at some point. If futures fall below support, the selling may intensify.
2)	If cash is no worse than steady this week, both live and feeder cattle futures should move higher.	2)	Beef demand may slow as the weather becomes hotter. Consumers tend to eat less beef in the dog days of summer.
3)	Hog futures remain extremely oversold with the potential for further short-covering as traders may feel there is limited downside potential.	3)	July hog futures are holding a premium to the index and may reduce more of that premium over the next 2 weeks.
4)	The July hog contract has a chart gap above the current price that may be filled over the next few weeks. It was not accomplished on the price increase on Monday.	4)	Cash and cutouts are not providing the consistent strength needed to support the market and turn the trend higher.