GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a fruitful day for the entire livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher and it's likely that this week's cash cattle market is going to trade higher too. Thursday will be a busy day for the hog complex especially; but potentially for the cattle market too if cash cattle trade begins to develop, as the morning will release the weekly export report and later in the afternoon the market will see the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.57 with a weighted average price of $88.64 on 4,062 head. July corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15.64 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Today's trade was nearly a "perfect storm" for the cattle complex as traders' demand was plentiful and the market's fundamentals were incredible with beef demand strong and the cash cattle market continuing to rally. Yes, boxed beef prices may have closed slightly lower, but it's unusual for the market to be trading strong still as historically seasonal summertime prices would have already topped for both the boxed beef and fed cash cattle markets. It's worth noting that the spot August contract closed at its highest price point since last October. Today's rally was a big throttle forward to the cattle market's rallying engine as the cash market has been carrying the lion's share of the market's weight, but seeing this much technical support and interest, traders jumped on board and helped contribute to the market's gusto. August live cattle closed $2.32 higher at $186.75, October live cattle closed $1.77 higher at $186.12 and December live cattle closed $1.47 higher at $187.62. Asking prices in the South are noted at $192 to $194 but are still not established in the North.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.54 ($322.85) and select down $2.40 ($302.86) with a movement of 134 loads (92.99 loads of choice, 22.01 loads of select, 4.26 loads of trim and 14.44 loads of ground beef).
THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With how strong the board is performing and given that feedlots continue to possess the market's leverage, prices will likely be higher again this week. The real question is: How much higher?
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the live cattle complex seeing ample trader support, the feeder cattle contracts kicked into high gear and closed over $2.00 higher throughout their entire market. Today's rallying nature did put the spot August contract to close above its 100-day moving average which is always a positive signal in the cattle complex. August feeders closed $2.72 higher at $261.77, September feeders closed $2.40 higher at $262.47 and October feeders closed $2.30 higher at $262.90. Most sale barns won't have a sale next week in respect to Independence Day. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas compared to last week steer and heifer calves were not well tested, but on yearling steers and heifers, prices were $3.00 to $5.00 higher. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 80%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/26/2024: up $0.41, $258.31.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex also had a fruitful day as its contracts were able to close higher and the market was well supported by strong daily fundamentals as pork cutout values closed higher and even though the cash market's weighted average was slightly lower, a sizeable volume of hogs was traded. July lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $89.90, August lean hogs closed $2.22 higher at $88.97 and October lean hogs closed $1.77 higher at $75.37. The afternoon's carcass prices were skewed by the belly's $12.52 jump, but hey, a higher close is a higher close. But with the current swings in which we've seen in the belly, carcass price volatility will likely remain which isn't settling to traders to note. Remember, Thursday will be a big report-hitting day for the hog complex as traders will note the morning's exports sales report and then be anxious to see what the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report produces. Pork cutouts totaled 207.11 loads with 175.05 loads of pork cuts and 32.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.21, $95.52. The CME lean hog index 6/24/2024: down $0.05, $89.85.
THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have already been aggressive in this week's cash market, it's likely that they'll be less aggressive later in the week.
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