GENERAL COMMENTS:
Feedlot managers are again reaping the benefits of sticking to their guns and waiting until late in the week to market their pens as prices traded anywhere from $3.00 to $6.00 higher again this week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon, down $1.17 with a weighted average price of $86.04 on 3,292 head. July corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15.57 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $0.78, August live cattle down $0.03; August feeder cattle down $3.60, September feeder cattle down $2.80; July lean hogs down $1.60, August lean hogs down $1.13; July corn down $0.15, September corn down $0.17.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 14,900 mt for 2024 were up 24% from the previous week, but down 7% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (4,700 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 21,400 mt for 2024 were down 29% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (7,400 mt), Japan (5,800 mt) and the Dominican Republic (2,500 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It was a busy day for the live cattle complex as traders tried to wait patiently for the cash cattle market to trade, but no cash cattle sales were reported by the time the futures market closed which left traders in a position to trust their gut and hope that cash prices would indeed be higher. Traders elected to allow the nearby contracts to trade slightly higher and given that cash cattle prices have started to trade for anywhere from $3.00 6o $6.00 higher – their bet was a good one! June live cattle closed $0.52 higher at $187.60, August live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $183.15 and October live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $183.62. Only a handful of cattle have traded at the time of this writing, and it will be vital to see exactly how many cattle sold and for what prices on Monday when all the week's sales are reported. Thus, throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle have traded for $310 to $312, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle have traded anywhere from $189 to $191 which is $3.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. It's utterly impressive just how strong the current cash cattle market is -- and feedlot managers deserve a big round of applause for continuing to advance the market while they possess the leverage, because we all know one day the tide will turn.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week and a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 19,000. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 620,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 29,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.48 ($322.39) and select down $1.29 ($303.11) with a movement of 131 loads (86.76 loads of choice, 25.01 loads of select, 9.20 loads of trim and 10.33 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Until we know exactly where the week's weighted averages land, it's tough to call next week's market.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex closed lower as traders were cautious about overly supporting the market ahead of seeing what Friday's Cattle on Feed amounted to. And given that there was a ripple in the report and placements came in 4% higher than a year ago, they're likely thankful for their cautiousness. Click here to access DTN's COF comments:
August feeders closed $1.45 lower at $258.37, September feeders closed $1.27 lower at $259.90 and October feeders closed $1.25 lower at $260.62. Feeders could be under pressure on Monday simply because of the COF report. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers traded $4.00 to $7.00 higher, and steer calves traded $5.00 to $6.00 higher except five weights sold $4.00 to $5.00 lower. Heifers traded $4.00 to $9.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 to $4.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 72%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/20/2024: up $1.68, $257.47.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed mixed as traders were thankful to see a modestly supportive export sales report this morning and were thankful to see domestic demand a touch stronger in this afternoon's closing pork cutout values. It was especially interesting to note that the belly dropped $7.66 lower, but the loin gained $5.06 and the butt closed $6.69 higher which pushed the carcass price higher. July lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $92.05, August lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $89.32 and October lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $76.32. Pork cutouts totaled 299.87 loads with 268.13 loads of pork cuts and 31.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.18, $99.03. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head – 28,000 head more than a week ago and 24,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 46,000 head. The CME lean hog index 6/19/2024: down $0.17, $90.55.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers could be slightly more interested in the cash market early next week than usual given that afternoon pork cutout prices closed higher, but it's still unlikely that they'll support Monday's cash market enough to where cash prices close higher than early in the week.
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