Thursday, April 26, 2018

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Triple-Digit Losses Sweep Through Hog Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS: 
Widespread pressure has developed across cattle and hog futures midday Thursday. The early support seen in cattle trade has quickly evaporated due to limited follow through buyer interest and traders showing concern about additional short-term gains. Hog futures have posted triple-digit losses, with weakness seen despite firming pork values. Corn prices are lower in light trade. May corn futures are 1/4 cent lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 220 points higher while Nasdaq is up 104 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Trade in live cattle futures at midday is mixed to mostly lower with June futures leading the complex lower with a $1 per cwt loss. There remains some uncertainty in the market as traders have quickly adjusted to the recent market support in all contracts. Trade volume has remained slow through the morning with traders unwilling to aggressively focus on long term market direction due to some position taking likely being the main order of business for most traders. There is expected to be some additional longer term shifts that may move into the market, although end of month adjustments may quickly add to market volatility. Cash bids are starting to improve through the morning with bids seen in nearly all areas of cattle country with the expectation that additional interest will develop late in the day. It is uncertain at this point if feeders will be willing to settle at this point with the possibility of follow through support developing late in the week. Live bids are seen at $121 per cwt, while dressed bids are seen at $190 to $192 per cwt. Asking prices are now seen at $125 live basis, and $200 to $203 per cwt dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $1.76 higher (select) and up $1.22 per cwt (choice) with active movement of 85 total loads reported (42 loads of choice cuts, 27 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 17 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Lightly traded April contracts continue to hold moderate gains which developed in early trade Thursday morning. But the rest of the complex remains under moderate pressure with traders looking for increased softness through the end of the week, and likely the rest of April. May contracts are now leading the market lower with an 80 cent per cwt loss. May futures have quickly eroded the premium that had been evident over the last couple of weeks as traders focus on May as the spot-month contract.
LEAN HOGS:
Triple-digit losses have moved into lean hog trade with May through July futures posting losses of $1.20 to $1.45 per cwt. The overall lack of support returning to the market following midweek market gains has opened the door on additional liquidation through the complex. Trade volume remains sluggish, as traders continue to focus on firming pork values, although there is growing concern that the strong supplies seen through the spring and summer may make it much more difficult to maintain current supply levels. But upcoming seasonal summer demand should help to draw buyer activity back into the market over the near future. Cash prices are higher on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is up $0.02 at $58.32 per cwt with the range from $53.00 to $58.50 on 2,850 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.40 at $58.09 per cwt with the range from $53.00 to $58.50 on 550 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report posted 124 loads selling with carcass values adding $0.61 per cwt. Lean hog index for 4/24 is at $60.44 up 1.44 with a projected two-day index of $61.23, up 0.79.

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