Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Late-Week Positioning

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle business has once again made it to Friday without any significant market direction, or indication that packers and feeders will make an effort to come to terms on selling cattle for the week. Packer interest should improve through the morning, although it could be late in the day before there is trade. Asking prices will likely be at $123 and higher live and $200 to $203 dressed, although given the market volatility in all livestock trade, it is uncertain where markets will shake out by the end of the day. Futures trade is expected to open with a weak undertone following previous sharp losses in feeder cattle, creating market uncertainty through the entire market. Traders are likely to try to square positions Friday, as overall volume may remain sluggish ahead of the three-day weekend.

Early lean hog trade is expected to remain mixed in a moderate range as limited trade volume is likely to develop in the next few hours. Traders continue to focus on outside market direction as well as growing concerns about pork movement through the summer months as softness is likely to redevelop in all spring and summer contract months. Cash hog prices are expected to be steady to $1 per cwt lower, although the majority of trade is likely to remain steady early Friday morning. This could add even more softness to the entire complex as traders try to focus on upcoming procurement levels, although the expected winter storm moving through late in the day and through the weekend may limit overall activity Saturday and potentially into next week. With markets closed Monday due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day, it is likely that additional late-week activity may develop. 

#completecalfcare

BULL SIDE	BEAR SIDE
1) Firm late-week support is returning to beef values, as boxed beef prices bounced higher Thursday, allowing for increased focus on positive product movement and potentially higher cash values to follow.	1) Feeder cattle futures swiftly tumbled lower, falling well below support levels late last fall. This may spark additional uncertainty through the complex.
2) Live cattle futures continue to trade at the top end of the price range following a moderate pullback in prices Thursday. This could help to focus increased buyer support through the complex in the next few days.	2) With markets closed Monday, traders are going into the weekend trying to make adjustments to positions following very volatile market swings. This lack of direction could add even more uncertainty to all markets.
3) Packers will continue to work hard to gain access to market-ready hogs in order to keep plants full based on the still strong packer margins. This will likely minimize cash price levels in the next couple of weeks.	3) April lean hog futures have continued to weaken, with prices maintaining price levels well below November support levels. The next major support level remains near, $61 per cwt set last August, still $3.50 per cwt below current levels.
4)Firm gains developed in pork values as picnic and ham values shifted sharply higher Thursday. This offset losses in more seasonal meat cuts, with the focus on sustained growth through the coming months.	4) The winter storm moving through the country through the weekend, as well as bitter temperatures, is likely to disrupt overall procurement levels in all stages of the hog industry. This is likely to add even more uncertainty to the complex early next week.