Cash cattle markets will remain at a standstill through the day Tuesday with limited interest shown Monday due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, which kept markets closed. Continued focus on showlist distribution and inventory taking will be seen, although bids and asking prices are expected to remain nonexistent for the next couple of weeks. Following steady trade levels with light to moderate activity late last week, the focus on market stability and outside market direction will play a significant role in the development of cash market trade, which is likely to be pushed off until Thursday or Friday. Futures trade is expected to remain mixed in light activity with limited interest seen through the complex. This could add some additional volatility to the market following shifts seen late last week. Traders are also focusing on the potential of increased beef value support, which may bring additional underlying support to the still firm live cattle trade.
Early trade in lean hog futures is expected to remain mixed following strong market shifts higher late last week. With lean hog futures bouncing off of multi-month lows in nearby contracts, traders are trying to establish market support on which to build through the upcoming days and weeks. Limited interest is expected through cash market activity following limited packer processing speeds Monday. Tuesday runs are expected to move back to a normal schedule, with an expected 477,000 head moving through plants. The latest round of weather issues may limit overall movement the next couple of days, which may shift overall plant production to later week activity.
| BULL SIDE | BEAR SIDE |
| 1) Strong underlying buyer support late last week in live cattle trade is helping to rebuild market support, which started to teeter the past few trading sessions. This is likely to focus on pushing prices to contract highs. | 1) The underlying tone through feeder cattle trade remains under pressure with traders focusing on recent market softness and the potential for increased production costs to erode cattle market support later through the spring. |
| 2) Strong recent gains that flooded through the stock market and several outside markets the past couple of weeks has helped to alleviate the fears of additional market pressure developing through the coming weeks. |
2) Recent increased in corn and soybean markets has quickly limited support through the entire cattle complex. This may spark additional uncertainty through January.
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| 3)Strong triple-digit gains late last week sparked underlying market support in all lean hog trade, which is expected to carry over into early-week trade. | 3) Sharp losses have developed through early January across all lean hog trade. Even though gains developed at the end of the week, the weekly close for nearby lean hog futures remained lower, sparking additional potential liquidation early in the week. |
| 4) Cash hog prices bounced higher at the end of last week, helping to spark additional buyer activity through the complex through midweek or later. | 4) Another round of winter weather concerns is expected in the next couple of days in much of the Midwest and reaching to many other areas of the country. Thiswill not only limit processing schedules, but also willhinder pork demand. |
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| #completecalfcare |
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