Cash cattle markets are expected to remain silent or nearly silent through most of the day Wednesday with packers not expected to quickly move into the market until later in the week. This could keep markets uncertain with cash trade potentially put off until sometime Friday once again. It is likely that asking prices may start by midday, although this is not expected to bring about any action. Initial trade in live cattle futures is expected to remain mixed with a combination of follow-through selling pressure and short-covering through the morning. Outside market shifts will once again play a significant role in overall direction of the market and participation by commercial and investment traders.
Cash markets are expected to remain mixed through most of the morning with prices 50 cents lower to $1 per cwt higher. Although most bids are expected steady by midweek. With another round of winter storms in the last day, there is expected to be some challenge getting hogs to plants through much of the Midwest. This is likely to limit packer runs the next couple of days. Futures trade is called mixed in a moderate range, although the ability to hold onto recent support levels is helping to spark additional commercial buyer activity through most of the complex.
| BULL SIDE | BEAR SIDE |
| 1) Firm beef demand continues to spark additional short-term support based on the expectation that meat demand may continue to remain firm through most of the winter and early spring months. | 1) Sharp early-week losses has sparked additional bearishness through the entire cattle complex. This is likely to draw additional selling activity into the market midweek. |
| 2) Even with the most recent market pressure in live cattle trade, futures prices remain in the top end of the trading range, at well above the 100 day moving average. This may help to spark some underlying support through the upcoming days. |
2) Early cattle on feed estimates are looking for a reversal of last month's bullish market shift. With increased expected placements likely to be muddled with potentially delayed reports, limiting market support.
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| 3)Summer market spreads continue to hold strong premiums with July contracts trading $20 per cwt above spot February contracts. This may spark some additional focus on long-term pork demand. | 3) Strong pork belly losses quickly offset the potential of stable-to-firm pork values. Pork bellies fell nearly $10 per cwt Tuesday, derailing narrow-to-firm support in all other primal cuts. |
| 4) Stability in nearby futures has helped to push prices off of recent support levels with February futures holding support at $60.67 per cwt. Traders may be able to spark additional underlying support through the next two weeks, establishing longer-term market gains. | 4) With January weather showing much of the country what winter season is like, overall pork demand and product movement is expected to be hindered due to not only snow and ice in many locations, but cold weather not releasing its grip on a good portion of the country. |
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| #completecalfcare |
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