GENERAL COMMENTS:
October live cattle futures broke through long-term support, creating additional technical weakness in the already bearish market. Hog futures continued to tumble lower, with December falling below $60 per cwt for the first time in over two weeks. Corn prices posted narrow losses in light trade. December corn futures are 1 1/4 cents lower. Stock markets are mixed in light trade. Dow Jones is 40 points higher with NASDAQ down 28 points. Cash cattle activity remains undeveloped, which is typical for a Monday; tasks include inventory taking and showlist distribution. New showlists are mixed with fewer cattle offered in Texas and Kansas, while lists are longer in Nebraska and Colorado. It is unlikely asking prices and bids will develop early in the week. National Daily Direct afternoon hog report is $1.42 lower with a weighted average of $50.69 per cwt. Full range of $46.00 to $51.50 per cwt. Total volume reported is 15,036 head.
LIVE CATTLE:
Late-day pressure added to a weaker market tone ($0.32 higher to $0.67 lower). Live cattle futures spent most of Monday stuck in a narrowly mixed trading range as limited buyer support moved into the complex after initial losses developed. The inability to hold this stable market tone in the last hour of trade quickly brought renewed bearishness to the complex. October live cattle futures quickly fell 67 cents per cwt near closing bell, falling to $94.20 per cwt. This broke through long-term support levels of $94.45 per cwt set in 2016. The overall technical weakness in the complex that already existed is not likely to change much given this price breakthrough, but it continues to confirm the limited support in the complex. Given the $12.55 per cwt price freefall which developed over the last month since Tyson's plant fire, the market remains extremely oversold, but unable to gain enough momentum to break out of this bearish pattern. Beef cut-outs: lower $0.02 lower (select, $201.92) and down $0.36 (choice, $226.95) with good demand and moderate to heavy offerings, 123 loads (51 loads of choice cuts, 37 loads of select cuts, 15 loads of trimmings, 21 loads of coarse grinds).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:
Steady. Cash cattle markets are expected to remain quiet early Tuesday with bids and asking prices undeveloped. Feeders are looking to bring needed stability to the complex, although continued futures pressure is adding increased weakness.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Follow-through selling quickly developed in feeder cattle futures focusing on the underlying bearishness in live cattle futures ($0.20 to $1.57 lower). Buyers were quick to avoid the feeder cattle complex following pressure late last week and underlying weakness through the rest of livestock trade. Although trade volume remained sluggish through most of the Monday session, nearby contracts posted further erosion as technical weakness is adding to long-term uncertainty. Even though feeder cattle trade remains within the current sideways trading range, traders remain very concerned about breaking through long-term support levels given the weakness in live cattle futures and soft cash cattle prices. CME cash feeder index for 9/6 is $137.77, down 0.59.
LEAN HOGS:
Continued late-day pressure flooded lean hog futures, causing further liquidation concerns ($0.60 higher to $2.52 lower). Despite holding losses in check through most of the session, late-day pressure swiftly moved through the lean hog complex. December and February futures led the complex lower with losses exceeding $2.50 per cwt, as traders remain concerned about further cash market weakness and lack of optimism when it comes to securing a trade deal with China in the near future. December futures broke below $60 per cwt Monday, sparking additional pressure across all nearby contracts. Although nearby futures still remain above long-term support levels set in August, the inability to hold recent gains is viewed as extremely bearish for the entire complex. Wholesale pork values weakened early in the week with active losses in rib and belly cuts driving the market lower. Pork cutout values lost $1.41 per cwt, moving to $71.91 per cwt on 324 loads. CME cash lean index for 9/5 is $64.69, down 0.56. DTN Projected lean index for 9/6 is $63.75, down 0.93.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:
Steady to $2 lower. Continued losses are expected following increased widespread softness through the entire complex. The underlying tone of the market remains weak, and early cash bids are expected to be tempered by packers still needing to gain access to significant hog numbers in order to fuel aggressive procurement levels. Tuesday slaughter numbers are expected at 483,000 head.
 |
| #completeherdhealth |
No comments:
Post a Comment