Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Trade Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trade was nonexistent with only some distribution of showlists. Bids or offers were not placed as buyers and sellers are unsure of where to start. Cash trade is expected to be similar to last week. Those who held out, hoping to see stronger prices and higher futures, were disappointed. More defined bids and offers should show up Wednesday. Trading Tuesday may set the tone of the market for the next few days, making it difficult to resume the uptrend. Cash will need to show strength or futures may set back to the lows.

Lean hogs futures are expected to be erratic Tuesday with October remaining confined to the sideways pattern it has been in since the beginning of August. The October/December spread should begin to unwind after moving dramatically over the past two days. Cash hogs are expected to remain steady early in the week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Huge price gaps remain higher in the cattle complex. Generally, chart gaps will be filled and this market should be no exception.	1)	More cattle on the showlists this week due to holding back last week in hopes futures would continue to rally, may leave buyers unwilling to bid higher.
2)	Traders may turn some attention to the Cattle on Feed report this Friday, which could provide some support under the market or at least keep futures from retracing very far.	2)	So far, futures have been unable to break out to the upside, which will require a monumental effort to achieve prior to the Cattle on Feed report.
3)	The steep rise of Dec lean hog futures is changing the trend of the market with chart technicals supporting the breakout of price.	3)	Weakness of pork cut-outs may keep October futures confined to a sideways trading pattern.
4)	Pork being exempt from higher tariffs provides some support with that support needing to see actual export business being done with China. Progress is being made, which should result in greater export business.	4)	Hog runs remain large with buyers unwilling to bid higher in the face of lower cut-out values and large numbers.

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