Lean hog and feeder cattle contracts are lower Monday morning as nearby live cattle contracts want to rise, but are second guessing that movement yet again. December corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 12.27 points and the NASDAQ is up 12.47 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Last week, fat cattle trade crept higher and higher as the week went on and eventually called it a week when trade settled on Saturday with a few pens in the North selling for $109. Most trade took place on Friday at $107, which was $4 higher from previous week. Monday's open on the December contract doesn't show nearly the energy the week concluded on, but a steady market is a strong market and prices are on the upward tick. December live cattle opened at $110.90 and have since inched up to $111.25. Total negotiated cash cattle sold for last week totaled 76,027 head, which is up 2,182 head from a week ago, but down 35,581 head from a year ago. In order to stay current and keep carcass weights from getting too big, there will need to be a bigger movement of cattle this week. If there isn't, there is a potential that prices will begin to reflect heavier weights.
Formula totals for last week were mixed, lower in Kansas and Nebraska, and about steady in Texas: Kansas 81,407 (down 7,286), Nebraska 54,047 (down 4,703), Texas 97,613 (up 221). Total trade volume is also mixed, lower in Kansas and Nebraska but higher in Texas: Kansas 93,307 (down 6,436), Nebraska 85,499 (down 4,351), Texas 105,157 (up 3,162). New showlists appear to be higher in Texas, somewhat lower in Nebraska/Colorado and lower in Kansas. Just a few asking prices have been reported in parts of Nebraska and Colorado at $112.
Midday boxed beef prices are lower: Choice down $0.68 ($211.28) and select down $0.32 ($186.60). Monday's midday offering of boxed beef movement totaled 65 loads (31.20 loads of choice cuts, 13.46 loads of select cuts, 15.42 loads of trim and 5.10 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts haven't reciprocated any of the positive cash cattle energy nor the steady-to-$3-higher prices found in sale barns. Many know Oct. 15 as the magical shipping date for spring-born calves, and with the fall run of feeder calves only a week away, prices probably will get worse before they get better. The November feeder cattle contract opened Monday at $141.42 and has since traded up and then down, to now approach the noon hour at $141.05.
LEAN HOGS
December lean hogs opened Monday at $66.77 and have since fallen to $64.25. The lean hog sector is in a pinch. With trade deals sitting on the table with no clear future, corn prices gaining support and a large volume of market-ready hogs easily accessible, prices may be tough unless a large-volume export market is found soon.
The projected lean hog index for 10/4/19 is down $0.01 at $59.22, and the actual lean hog index for 10/3/19 came to $59.23, up $0.51. Prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.66 with a weighted average of $49.81, ranging from $48.00 to $52.00 on 7,960 head and a five-day rolling average of $49.41. Pork cutouts totaled 98.90 loads with 83.61 loads of pork cuts and 15.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are significantly higher, up $3.26 at $78.43.
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