GENERAL COMMENTS:
Monday's trade is seeming to jump into this week just like it did last week as cattle are higher; corn and hogs are both lower. If this week's trade can pan out to be as strong as last week's market, it will be a stellar accomplishment as last week's trade substantially helped the entire livestock sector. May corn is down 7 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $5.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 9.37 points and NASDAQ is down 117.53 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Last week's live cattle/fat cattle market was exactly what the doctor called for! Seeing that packers committed 64% of last week's procured cattle for delivery in the next two weeks tells me they need cattle and will most likely be willing to pay more if boxed beef prices keep trending higher. April live cattle are up $0.60 at $120.67, June live cattle are up $0.72 at $122.50 and August live cattle are up $0.50 at $121.40. If the board can keep trading higher throughout the week there's no reason why the cash cattle market can't jump another $2.00 to $3.00 higher this week. Showlists are mixed as Texas is somewhat lower, Kansas is steady, and Nebraska and Colorado are higher.
Last week's cash cattle trade totaled 99,682 head. Of that 64,241 head are committed for delivery in the next two weeks, while the remaining 35,441 head are scheduled for delivery in the following 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.70 ($239.36) and select up $2.96 ($230.73) with a movement of 44 loads (24.70 loads of choice, 5.54 loads of select, 7.90 loads of rim and 5.73 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
It's been a dynamite Monday morning for the feeder cattle contracts as the live cattle market is encouraging higher trade and the corn market is veering lower, which is allowing feeders to confidently trade higher. April feeders are up $2.25 at $147.37, May feeders are up $2.82 at $152.70 and August feeders are up $1.55 at $159.97. The countryside is itching for green grass to grow and for spring to show its colors. Thankfully buyers jumped at the opportunity to buy calves last week. With every week that passes backgrounders are that much closer to grass, which is most likely going to fuel their buying, especially if the countryside can get some much-needed moisture.
LEAN HOGS:
It's looking like this week's Monday is another rerun of last week's. Before traders extend themselves and throw their money behind the contracts, they want to see if the market's fundamentals are going to support higher trade once again. April lean hogs are down $0.40 at $100.40, June lean hogs are down $0.15 at $105.45 and July lean hogs are down $0.22 at $104.42. Given just how strong last week's Hogs and Pigs Report was, continued support should find its way into the market. But, but playing the devil's advocate here, the market will ring in a top at some point. As we've been saying for weeks on end now, the market could keep trading higher if fundamentals encourage it, but given the shortened holiday week with no trade on Friday there is the chance of some volatility creeping into the complex.
The projected lean hog index for 3/26/2021 is up $1.40 at $97.38, and the actual CME Lean Hog Index for 3/25/2021 is up $1.38 at $95.97. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.57 with a weighted average of $93.99, ranging from $93.00 to $99.00 on 4,198 head with a five-day rolling average of $91.92. Pork cutouts total 146.94 loads with 127.35 loads of pork cuts and 19.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.95, $111.48.
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