GENERAL COMMENTS:
Tuesday is bringing a breath of fresh air to the livestock sector as the futures are mostly higher and aspiring to keep that momentum. The biggest challenges lie within the lean hog and feeder cattle futures. The lean hog market needs to continue to see fundamental support to keep trading higher; the feeder cattle market is leery of corn's modest rally. May corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 31.15 points and NASDAQ is down 33.60 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It is still quiet throughout cattle country and, with boxed beef prices taking a healthy run at higher prices, feedlots are feeling more and more empowered to price their cattle higher. Thus far packers have yet to offer bids and asking prices haven't been noted, which could mean Tuesday is going to pass the market by without any trade developing. If feedlots are going to successfully move this week's cash cattle market higher, it won't be done early in the week, but later in the week when packers feel pushed to get their week's buying secured. The board is continuing to trade higher and realistically should be able to keep trading higher as nearby resistance levels aren't bothersome in the immediate future. April live cattle are up $0.15 at $118.92, June live cattle are up $1.05 at $119.95 and August live cattle are up $0.80 at $118.92.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.28 ($233.23) and select up $2.71 ($225.76) with a movement of 78 loads (34.45 loads of choice, 11.18 loads of select, 10.49 loads of trim and 21.64 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The battle between corn futures and feeder cattle contracts continues as feeder futures would love to trade higher but the corn market has found some renewed support and is making way at a modest rally. April feeders are up $0.05 at $139.47, May feeders are up $0.20 at $145.30 and August feeders are up $0.02 at $115.15. Early in the day, the feeder cattle contracts were taking the rally of the corn market more bearishly. But with the higher trade seen throughout the live cattle market, the complex has since traded modestly higher, but is keeping a close eye on the corn market and its momentum.
LEAN HOGS:
Watching how the lean hog market closes day in and day out has been like waking up in the morning while you are night calving and expecting a nasty additional snow on top of what you've already tromped through the last two weeks. You struggle out of bed, sleepily stumble to the door to throw on your 97 layers of winter gear and brace yourself to look outside and see how much nasty white fluff has accumulated since your last check! Well, monitoring the lean hog complex in the last month has been just like that -- you monitor the markets all through the day but hope and pray closing prices are higher and pull up the data all while holding your breath praying the fundamentals shined through. Thankfully even though Monday's futures contracts closed lower, the market's fundamentals still closed higher, which has supported Tuesday's strong trade throughout the futures market. April lean hogs are up $1.35 at $96.40, June lean hogs are up $1.52 at $101.00 and July lean hogs are up $1.17 at $100.85. If the market can keep seeing higher cash hog trade and higher pork cutout values all while maintaining a rigorous slaughter speed, the technical side of the market may be able to hold.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/22/2021 is up $0.76 at $93.47, and the actual index for 3/19/2021 is up $1.00 at $92.71. Hog prices are sharply higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $3.41 with a weighted average of $89.42, ranging from $86.00 to $96.00 on 4,366 head with a five-day rolling average of $87.25. Pork cutouts total 240.61 loads with 222.38 loads of pork cuts and 18.23 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.29, $109.55.
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