GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the live cattle and lean hog futures have had a back-and-forth day as traders are worried about jumping into the complex without firm fundamental support. Thankfully the market's fundamentals (boxed beef prices, cash prices and slaughter speed) all push towards stronger trade given that demand is so strong. May corn is down 8 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 138.31 points and NASDAQ is down 35.25 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have had an indecisive morning as the contracts danced around both sides of steady. As the noon hour approaches, the contracts are seeing a little more support develop from traders but are going to rely heavily this week on the cash cattle market and the fundamental environment of the marketplace to push trade higher. April live cattle are up $0.30 at $121.30, June live cattle are down $0.05 at $122.60 and August live cattle are up $0.10 at $121.57. The countryside is still quiet without any bids developing but asking prices in the South have been noted at $118 to $120; in the North at $192. Feedlots are ready to move this market substantially higher and are prepared to wait until later in the week to trade cattle if need be to get the prices they desire.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $4.76 ($244.29) and select up $3.49 ($235.99) with a movement of 88 loads (45.43 loads of choice, 12.27 loads of select, 9.94 loads of trim and 19.93 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Sure, the live cattle futures may be trading lower, but the feeder cattle contracts couldn't care less at the moment as corn prices are giving the market a wide opportunity to trade higher. With cost of gains being one of the biggest limiting factors in recent months to the feeding industry, the feeder cattle contracts see Tuesday's lower grain trade as a chance to move their market higher and believe the momentum in the cash cattle market could rejuvenate the live cattle contracts later in the week. April feeders are up $0.40 at $147.47, May feeders are up $0.82 at $153.02 and August feeders are up $0.62 at $160.62.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures are fighting against tough technical pressures right now. Despite how crazy it may seem, the market's cash trade and pork cutout values should encourage higher trade on the board; but traders are leery. Some nearby contracts are able to trade higher, but for the most part the spot April contract and the deferred contracts are all trading lower. April lean hogs are down $0.07 at $100.30, June lean hogs are up $0.65 at $105.87 and July lean hogs are up $0.60 at $104.65. In order for traders to jump on board with the higher trade, they may just need to see support carry through Tuesday's close and may positionally trade higher Wednesday, even though the market is fighting tough resistance pressure.
The projected CME Lean Hog index for 3/29/2021 is up $0.66 at $98.04 and the actual index for 3/26/2021 is up $1.40 at $97.38. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.11 with a weighted average of $96.10, ranging from $93.95 to $100.00 on 4,945 head and a five-day rolling average of $93.08. Pork cutouts total 238.96 loads with 221.28 loads of pork cuts and 17.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.63, $108.47.
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