GENERAL COMMENTS:
There's little excitement to be had in the livestock sector as the future complex wanes lower amid a weaker trading complex. The live cattle and feeder cattle contracts were expected to be met with some pressure, but even the lean hog market, which had an exceptional week last week, is trending lower with the market's hesitancy. With news of the Delta variant of COVID-19 spreading, the entire marketplace seems to be holding its breath. December corn is up 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 826.85 points and NASDAQ is down 152.99 points.
LIVE CATTLE
The live cattle market isn't getting to sneak through the day without enduring the blows of Monday's skepticism. August live cattle are down $0.45 at $119.70, October live cattle are down $0.92 at $124.67 and December live cattle are down $0.82 at $130.50. The live cattle market will likely face pressure throughout the majority of the week as boxes are expected to continue to dip lower and the cash cattle market doesn't stand much of a chance at trading higher. Feedlots will most likely try to hold the market at steady prices, but as packers sit with supplies secured for the weeks ahead, they will pressure the market to trade lower. Showlists this week are smaller in Texas and Kansas, but larger in Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week there were 75,811 of cattle that traded through the negotiated cash cattle market. Of that 62% (47,149 head) were purchased for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 38% (28,662 head) were purchased for the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.76 ($266.18) and select down $1.63 ($250.16) with a movement of 60 loads (30.67 loads of choice, 14.11 loads of select, 7.02 loads of trim and 8.36 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
The feeder cattle market isn't faring well through Monday's trade as spot August contract has fell below the 40-day moving average and has even flirted with trading below the 100-day moving average in Monday's regression. August feeders are down $0.55 at $155.07, September feeders are down $1.55 at $156.95 and October feeders are down $1.62 at $158.85. The corn market has posted a slight rally, but largely the market's weaker trade stems from the futures complex's uncertainty as traders are extremely hesitant.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog market isn't holding up any better than the live cattle and feeder cattle market, even though last week the market posted a significant rally. August lean hogs are down $1.45 at $104.20, October lean hogs are down $1.20 at $89.55 and December lean hogs are down $0.60 at $83.27. Until the futures market gets its feet back under itself, this type of dreary trade is expected to continue, but that doesn't mean that the lean hog market won't be looking for ques. With there being opportunity from continued African swine fever problems in other countries, the market will be quick to jump on any and all opportunity to that comes it way. And truthfully, one of the market's biggest hinderances in being able to capitalize on these potential export opportunities is the fact that U.S. pork prices are still high compared to those of others. With supplies expected to remain incredibly thin from here out until at least the end of the year, swings in pork cutout values are likely to continue.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for July 16 is up $0.37 at $112.26, and the actual index for July 15 is up $0.55 at $111.89. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.26 with a weighted average of $105.31, ranging from $105.00 to $111.00 on 3,112 head and a five-day rolling average of $109.28. Pork cutouts total 111.96 loads with 97.50 loads of pork cuts and 14.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.04, $123.98.
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