GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been another quiet day throughout the livestock complex as cattle contracts dip lower while hogs hope for export opportunities. Tuesday morning's news that China confirmed 11 outbreaks of Africa swine fever (ASF) in 2021 and there is not a secure handle on the disease makes U.S. producers and packers see potential export opportunities. December corn is up 15 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 594.91 points and NASDAQ is up 203.60 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures are mostly lower as the market knows pressures linger. Even though midday boxed beef prices are mixed, the downward push is far from over and, until boxes have found a bottom, packers are going to be incredibly difficult to work with. Asking prices in the South have been noted at $120, and the North has yet to disclose what they'd like for cattle this week. But with packers sitting on ample supplies of secured cattle, feedlots know this week's trade isn't going to favor their position. There could be some trade develop Tuesday afternoon, but the market is most likely to be tested Wednesday. August live cattle are down $0.05 at $120.20, October live cattle are down $0.12 at $124.97 and December live cattle are down $0.52 at $130.60.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.43 ($265.06) and select up $0.02 ($249.51) with a movement of 80 loads (43.13 loads of choice, 23.60 loads of select, 6.68 loads of trim and 6.19 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures are tumbling lower Tuesday as the 14- to 17-cent rally in the corn market has halted the market's ambitions. August feeders are down $1.60 at $155.77, September feeders are down $0.97 at $158.07 and October feeders are down $1.07 at $159.77. Again, if the live cattle market would offer a beam of support, the complex may be able to trade higher as buyer demand continues to run strong throughout the countryside. But the live cattle market is swimming upstream as well.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog futures are rallying as more news of ASF has worked its way into the market. The Pig Site reported Chinese officials have confirmed they've had 11 outbreaks of ASF throughout 2021 and the country still does not have a secure handle on the situation. If the U.S. can keep its hog herd free of the disease, then export opportunities await. But the big, white elephant in the room is whether or not the U.S. can avoid acquiring the disease. August lean hogs are up $0.57 at $105.05, October lean hogs are up $1.32 at $90.70 and December lean hogs are up $1.17 at $84.22.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 7/19/2021 is up $0.07 at $112.33, and the actual index for 7/16/2021 is up $0.37 at $112.26. Hog prices are unavailable due to packer submission problems. Pork cutouts total 231.58 loads with 221.36 loads of pork cuts and 10.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.55, $121.30.
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